Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?

[UMFan83]

The next great Japanese import is likely coming this offseason, and looks like Jed Hoyer is interested.  Cubs had scouts at his last start (which was a no hitter), and now Jed Hoyer himself is flying to Japan for his next start. 

Figured Jed taking a trip to Japan made it worth starting a thread to discuss Yamamoto.

[Jason Ross]

Not surprised the Cubs are interested. Good pitcher, exciting upside, right age. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Yamamoto and Bellinger would be a good start to the off-season.

[Tryptamine]

Yamamoto is my number #1 offseason priority.  

[WhyCantWeWin]

Might be a higher demand for him now that both Urias and Ohtani aren't pitching options for next season. 

I really do hope the Cubs can get him. Yamamoto, Sasaki and Murakami are the big prizes coming out of the Japan in the next few years. 

[Petrey10]

I honestly would like YY, Alsonso and some bullpen help. I don’t think Belli is going to be in our range. He’s gonna want a 5-6yr deal and I’m out on that. 3 year deal and I’m in

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have heard 200 million floated around online, which I didn't expect despite being high on him.  I could see a long term deal hitting that level given his age, but I would be surprised if he exceeded 30M AAV given the uncertainties of translating to MLB.  Plus he'll be posted and not an FA, so a 200 million contract costs an extra 45M+ (outside the LT, but still real money) that will create some additional downward pressure.  With the FA options for big upside dropping(Urias, Ohtani in 2024) though, who knows.

[Rcal10]

On 9/13/2023 at 6:15 AM, Petrey10 said:

I honestly would like YY, Alsonso and some bullpen help. I don’t think Belli is going to be in our range. He’s gonna want a 5-6yr deal and I’m out on that. 3 year deal and I’m in

What FA in his 20’s is anyone getting for 3 years? If they got Alonso what do you think he costs to extend? And for how many years are yiu willing to do for Alonso? Why only 3 years for Bellinger? 

[chopsx9]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

What FA in his 20’s is anyone getting for 3 years? If they got Alonso what do you think he costs to extend? And for how many years are yiu willing to do for Alonso? Why only 3 years for Bellinger? 

Yup I'm all in on Bellinger.  he will be the karmic payback for Heyward. If the Padres can sign Bogarts - name alone tells you the contract isn't going to age well - into his 40's Cubs can sign Bellinger who can slide over to RF and then in to 1B as he ages into his late 30's.

[Stratos]

What pit

On 9/14/2023 at 3:02 PM, TomtheBombadil said:

Question: What are we thinking the contract will look like? I think he’s going to shatter Tanaka’s, which was a top 5 SP contract ever at the time 

I imagine alot of the thinking that he should be #1 over Ohtani is he’ll be cheaper, but he’d be nuts to not ask for $40+ million AAV himself at 25. I’m thinking 6/$240 and would say the Dodgers are the favorite given the ~40 combined TJs on anyone not named Kershaw or Bobby Miller (Future badass) making starts 

I can't imagine a guy who has never pitched in the MLB would get anything close to 40m AAV.

His stats and age seem to compare to Masahiro Tanaka.  He was a good MLB pitcher but not 40m AAV good.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Stratos

[CubinNY]

Yes, he's won the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young two years in a row and pitched really well in the WBC. He is rather small by starting pitcher standards, but he's been incredibly consistent and is about the same age as Horton. He's going to have a lot of suiters and the bidding is going to get high with both NY teams and the other big market clubs. Hell, even the Pirates met with him. 

[CubUgly]

On 9/14/2023 at 2:40 PM, Rcal10 said:

What FA in his 20’s is anyone getting for 3 years? If they got Alonso what do you think he costs to extend? And for how many years are yiu willing to do for Alonso? Why only 3 years for Bellinger? 

Agreed, I'm good with 5 years - more than that I get a bit uneasy - but 5 I can live with. 

[JBears79]

I'm all for YY. 25 year old's are the players I like handing out contracts too. Pitchers are always a risk. I'm guessing he ends up on the west coast though. 

I'd be all over him and Soto this offseason.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

I'm all for YY. 25 year old's are the players I like handing out contracts too. Pitchers are always a risk. I'm guessing he ends up on the west coast though. 

I'd be all over him and Soto this offseason.

I would as well. However I think the off season will look way more like Giolitto or Montgomery and then maybe sign Hoskins. I don’t give them any chance on Yamamoto and maybe a 1% chance on a Soto trade. Maybe (10% chance) they work something out for Alonso. But depending on his cost to acquire, I might rather have Hoskins for just money, or a loss of.a second round pick if the Phillies give him a QO. 
TBH I am not even sure they will sign any starting pitchers if Stroman and Hendricks are retained. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would as well. However I think the off season will look way more like Giolitto or Montgomery and then maybe sign Hoskins. I don’t give them any chance on Yamamoto and maybe a 1% chance on a Soto trade. Maybe (10% chance) they work something out for Alonso. But depending on his cost to acquire, I might rather have Hoskins for just money, or a loss of.a second round pick if the Phillies give him a QO. 
TBH I am not even sure they will sign any starting pitchers if Stroman and Hendricks are retained. 

That seems like an absurdly low probability we land a 3 win player on a 1 year-close to 20m deal. Cubs have the need, desire, and plenty of prospect surplus to work from. There are a couple other teams that will be in the mix but I'd say it's better than 50% we are the team to get him. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I would as well. However I think the off season will look way more like Giolitto or Montgomery and then maybe sign Hoskins. I don’t give them any chance on Yamamoto and maybe a 1% chance on a Soto trade. Maybe (10% chance) they work something out for Alonso. But depending on his cost to acquire, I might rather have Hoskins for just money, or a loss of.a second round pick if the Phillies give him a QO. 
TBH I am not even sure they will sign any starting pitchers if Stroman and Hendricks are retained. 

Assuming Stroman opts in, I'd be very surprised if they add someone from the Giolito tier of FAs.  I think with how well Assad and Wicks showed out in the second half, plus having Smyly and possibly Wesnesky in the bullpen, there's not a ton of need for pure depth.  I think Jed takes a swing at one of Yamamoto/Nola/Montgomery and if he fails there turns to the trade market.  But the goal is certainly a playoff caliber starter IMO.

On Yoshi specifically, he'd be my top target in free agency this winter by a wiiiiiiidddddeeee margin.

[Rcal10]

Of Yamamoto, Nola and Montgomery, IMO Montgomery is the most likely. 

[Y2J]

On 9/12/2023 at 10:56 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

Not surprised the Cubs are interested. Good pitcher, exciting upside, right age. 

Good to see you back. Been wondering where you’ve been. 

[Rcal10]

15 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

That seems like an absurdly low probability we land a 3 win player on a 1 year-close to 20m deal. Cubs have the need, desire, and plenty of prospect surplus to work from. There are a couple other teams that will be in the mix but I'd say it's better than 50% we are the team to get him. 

I don’t know who you are referring to in the first part of your comment. Who is a 3 win player on 1 year deal for $20M that I said the Cubs would get? 

And then who is this player you have so much confidence they will get? To me there is no player the Cubs have better than a 50% of getting either by trade of by free agency in any off season. 

[thawv]

On 9/14/2023 at 3:02 PM, TomtheBombadil said:

Question: What are we thinking the contract will look like? I think he’s going to shatter Tanaka’s, which was a top 5 SP contract ever at the time 

I imagine alot of the thinking that he should be #1 over Ohtani is he’ll be cheaper, but he’d be nuts to not ask for $40+ million AAV himself at 25. I’m thinking 6/$240 and would say the Dodgers are the favorite given the ~40 combined TJs on anyone not named Kershaw or Bobby Miller (Future badass) making starts 

I read between 160 and 200.  The length is still a mystery.  But I can see 7/175

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, thawv said:

I read between 160 and 200.  The length is still a mystery.  But I can see 7/175

I would say this is about right. Maybe there would be a playe option after 3 or 4 years.

[thawv]

16 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I would say this is about right. Maybe there would be a playe option after 3 or 4 years.

Honestly, I don't know when either the team or the player feels the need for an option.  With his age and his ridiculous stuff, I'd prefer a mutual option, or no option at all.   As the #1 FA not named Ohtani, I'd hate to give him the option to walk away at 28 years old.  Especially if the Cubs are in a WS window.  On the other hand, it that's the only way to get him to sign, I guess there's nothing else to do but hope he doesn't want to leave.  Maybe back load the deal where the higher salary kicks in at his option year?  It won't affect the CBT either way.

Edited October 8, 2023 by thawv

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, thawv said:

Honestly, I don't know when either the team or the player feels the need for an option.  With his age and his ridiculous stuff, I'd prefer a mutual option, or no option at all.   As the #1 FA not named Ohtani, I'd hate to give him the option to walk away at 28 years old.  Especially if the Cubs are in a WS window.  On the other hand, it that's the only way to get him to sign, I guess there's nothing else to do but hope he doesn't want to leave.  Maybe back load the deal where the higher salary kicks in at his option year?  It won't affect the CBT either way.

For a player his age it absolutely makes sense to have a players option. After 4 years he would be 29? He would only have 3 years left before having to try to get a new deal at 32? Why not test free agency again? Even if it is the same pay he might be able to get 3 more year on a deal. I know from a teams perspective it isn’t ideal. But that might be what will be needed to sign him.

I know back at PSD I had mentioned a conversation I had with TR years ago. It was the year the Cubs drafted Cease. It was actually the day they drafted him. As a STH I had an issue with something the FO did with tickets. I voiced my complaint and TR said he would personally come and talk to me about it. Anyway he did that say. He came to my seat and we chatted for an entire inning of a Cubs/Marlins game. In that conversation he was very open about everything. Like I was talking to a buddy. In that conversation he told me they almost had Tanaka but then “Hank” (I assume Steinbrenner) gave him an opt out after either 3 or 4 years(I don’t remember exactly when it was). Cubs woulsnt do it, so they lost out on him. This is why I feel that situation could happen again. For a younger player it is a great idea to have such an option. And one as in demand as him may get it.

As you said, maybe backload the deal. But even then if he is good he would probably get that same backloaded money for more years if he opts out. 

[Jason Ross]

On 10/6/2023 at 10:35 PM, Y2J said:

Good to see you back. Been wondering where you’ve been. 

Combination of work and personal emergencies and fall break!  I'm finally back home and capable of doing baseball again!  

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, thawv said:

Honestly, I don't know when either the team or the player feels the need for an option.  With his age and his ridiculous stuff, I'd prefer a mutual option, or no option at all.   As the #1 FA not named Ohtani, I'd hate to give him the option to walk away at 28 years old.  Especially if the Cubs are in a WS window.  On the other hand, it that's the only way to get him to sign, I guess there's nothing else to do but hope he doesn't want to leave.  Maybe back load the deal where the higher salary kicks in at his option year?  It won't affect the CBT either way.

Mutual options are really just opt outs, anyways.  Players only opt in if they're hurt, and teams only opt-in if they think they're getting a deal. It's probably pretty unlikely to see a super back-loaded deal so good he wouldn't opt out. 

I think we have to accept that Yamamoto is someone who's going to get a ton of looks from a ton of teams. I don't think you lead with a player opt out, but here's the thing: I'd rather the Cubs get the first 3 or 4 years of Yamamoto than another team get those years. If an opt out is what you need to do to get the deal done, get the deal done. He'll get it here or there, at that point. I'm not sure he'll need one, who knows? But holding strong on "no opt outs ever" is a bad business plan if you really want someone. If the Cubs want Yamamoto, we'll just have to give him what he wants with the amount of choices he will have.

Edited October 8, 2023 by 1908_Cubs