3 Cubs Who Will Make or Break Team at MLB Trade Deadline (and Beyond)

All things considered, the Chicago Cubs find themselves in an enviable position within a couple of weeks of the 2026 MLB trade deadline. They're atop the standings in the National League Wild Card race, with FanGraphs projecting them to remain in playoff position (albeit one slot lower given Philadelphia's slightly more favorable projection).

It'd be dangerous to portray this as a sure-thing situation, considering some of the struggles we've seen from this team over sustained stretches this season, in addition to the myriad injuries they've experienced on the mound. Nevertheless, their position remains an enviable one as the season prepares to hit the major benchmark that the deadline represents. 

Of course, remaining where they are will hinge on a few names on the current roster stabilizing things. We know (or at least think; he's suddenly slumping again at the plate) that Pete Crow-Armstrong will be in the National League MVP mix, while offensive stars who have struggled (Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner, for example) have begun to ascend of late. However, a few different names could have an even larger bearing on the team's ability to actually maintain their standing.

Seiya Suzuki, OF/DH

At his best, Suzuki is a player capable of driving offensive production on his own. While it hasn't been without various health issues over the years, we've all witnessed what peak performance looks like for him over sustained stretches of play. The issue is what unfolds in between those runs.

In 2026 alone, Suzuki missed time early due to a knee injury before going on to a .328 batting average, .430 on-base percentage, and .239 isolated power across his first 79 plate appearances, for a rather gaudy 175 wRC+. Of course, that turned into a May where the slash read just .190/.265/.286 with a paltry 51 wRC+. It's not entirely dissimilar from a couple of the trends we've seen from Suzuki in each of the last two years

Two seasons ago, Suzuki did almost exactly the same thing that we saw early on this year. He came out scorching in March and April, before falling well below average by wRC+ in May (71). Last season, Suzuki was excellent for each of the first two months before he began to linger closer to the average threshold, with wRC+ marks of 103, 103, and 106 from June to August. Much of that was due to waning power, including an August wherein his ISO sat at just .079. 

The issue isn't a question of quality. Suzuki is, objectively, one of the team's top hitters. The reason he gets a mention here is because of those rough stretches to which he's been prone. Whether they happen as a result of health or mechanics or approach isn't the point here. Instead, it's about the idea that Suzuki may be the team's most important hitter this side of Crow-Armstrong, especially in the face of so many other struggles that have permeated the lineup at various points this season. For the Cubs to maintain their position as buyers ahead of the trade deadline, Suzuki needs to do just that. He's looked good to start the second half, including homering Monday night.

Matthew Boyd, SP

The Cubs' rotation is in shambles. As of this writing, you're looking at a corps of Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, David Peterson and Colin Rea. Before returning to the mound Monday night, Taillon had been on the injured list since the beginning of June, with the likes of Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown, Justin Steele, and Cade Horton all joining him there or having gotten there first and saving him a seat on the shelf. Even Boyd himself went nearly two months between starts. And none of that takes into account what's transpired with the bullpen. 

The stack of injuries has forced Boyd into a role where he needs to be something of a stopper in the rotation. One could make the argument the team came into the season lacking a genuine one, but the combination of injuries and variance in performance from the other starters have left the role at Boyd's feet. Imanaga's fly-ball tendencies make him more prone to the occasional dud of a start; Boyd offers more stability.

Unfair as it may be, Boyd is the pitcher who needs to remain as stable as possible across these next couple of weeks. If he can continue to turn in the type of classic quality start we've come to expect from him over the last two years, the Cubs can remain afloat even against the wave of injuries. If not, then there's a severe issue awaiting the Cubs—and they'll need a huge, unlikely deadline splash to surmount it.

Caleb Thielbar, RP

Like Boyd in the rotation, the rash of injuries across the relief corps have pressed arms into duties that they may not otherwise have served, both in terms of volume and leverage. That has very much been the case with Thielbar, who has thrown nearly half of his innings in medium or high leverage. Thielbar parlayed a solid 2025 into a second contract with the team, but was supposed to be a small cog in a big machine. It hasn't panned out that way.

He hasn't been particularly successful in a fairly demanding role. Thielbar has spent the majority of the year trying to tread water, as illustrated by an ERA in the mid-4s and a 5.51 FIP. It would be entirely reasonable to have concerns about him being pressed into such a role. However, with guys like Daniel Palencia, Hunter Harvey, Ethan Roberts, Hoby Milner, and Phil Maton (again) out with injuries, the team will need Thielbar to keep delivering high-leverage outs. 

If Thielbar rediscovers some semblance of last year's form over the next 10 days or so, it will save Jed Hoyer a big headache. If he doesn't, the Cubs probably need to pick up a good lefty reliever by the deadline. Given the length of their shopping list even without that item, it'd be nice not to add that to it.