Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?

[Y2J]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Combination of work and personal emergencies and fall break!  I'm finally back home and capable of doing baseball again!  

I’m a former PSDer under a new alias. Somebody with BDawk’s contacts needs to bring him over. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Mutual options are really just opt outs, anyways.  Players only opt in if they're hurt, and teams only opt-in if they think they're getting a deal. It's probably pretty unlikely to see a super back-loaded deal so good he wouldn't opt out. 

I think we have to accept that Yamamoto is someone who's going to get a ton of looks from a ton of teams. I don't think you lead with a player opt out, but here's the thing: I'd rather the Cubs get the first 3 or 4 years of Yamamoto than another team get those years. If an opt out is what you need to do to get the deal done, get the deal done. He'll get it here or there, at that point. I'm not sure he'll need one, who knows? But holding strong on "no opt outs ever" is a bad business plan if you really want someone. If the Cubs want Yamamoto, we'll just have to give him what he wants with the amount of choices he will have.

I agree I wouldn’t lead with the opt out option. But I do feel he will get one if he wants one. And as young as he is, I also understand why he would want one. Cubs did not do it with Tanaka so he went to the Yankees. Hopefully if that is the thing that gets a deal done they go ahead and do it this time. 

[Bertz]

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/how-good-is-yoshinobu-yamamoto-a-dive-into-his-arsenal/

Quote

Mets RHP Kodai Senga is an understandable reference point for what we can expect from Yamamoto, with a somewhat similar pitch mix and a track record of dominance in the NPB. Senga’s “Ghost Fork” may have an edge over any of Yamamoto’s offerings, but the 25-year-old boasts better command, an even more impressive track record and arguably a better overall arsenal.

 

[CubinNY]

Yes, he should be target #1 this offseason. No one should be able to outbid the Cubs. After they lock him in see what they have left for other moves. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't want to be too pedantic but 7/203 (29M AAV) is extremely different than 6/240 (40M AAV)!  Or said another way, for the purposes in which most of us are discussing the offseason and finances(luxury tax implications), the posting fee is irrelevant and you wouldn't want to include it as part of a hypothetical years/dollars that we typically are tossing around.  It exists and it's good to remember in considering how high a team might go, but once YY signs it's borderline meaningless for fan purposes.

[Bertz]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2023-24-ballot-5-of-11/

I was doing the contract crowdsourcing polls for Fangraphs, and the one for the guys coming over from Asia is pretty fascinating.  I did not realize how close Imanaga and Yamamoto are.  ZiPS actually has Imanaga better on a per inning basis.

I've been pretty Yamamoto or bust in free agency but seeing this makes me soften on that.

Quote

 

Shota Imanaga

Imanaga is entering his age-30 season. Across eight NPB seasons, he has a 3.18 career ERA. In 148.0 innings with the Yokohama Bay Stars in 2023, he posted a 2.80 ERA with 174 strikeouts. ZiPS projects him for a 3.44 ERA, a 121 ERA , 151 strikeouts, and 3.1 WAR across 138 innings in 2024.

 

 

 

Quote

 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

 

Yamamoto is entering his age-25 season (he turned 25 in August). Across seven NPB seasons, he has a 1.82 career ERA. Yamamoto is a two-time Pacific League Most Valuable Player, a three-time Eiji Sawamura Award winner, and a three-time Japanese Triple Crown winner. In 164.0 inngs with the Orix Buffaloes in 2023, he posted a 1.21 ERA, 169 strikeouts, and threw his second NPB career no-hitter. ZiPS projects him for a 3.57 ERA, a 116 ERA , 165 strikeouts, and 3.7 WAR across 171 innings in 2024.

 

 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2023-24-ballot-5-of-11/

I was doing the contract crowdsourcing polls for Fangraphs, and the one for the guys coming over from Asia is pretty fascinating.  I did not realize how close Imanaga and Yamamoto are.  ZiPS actually has Imanaga better on a per inning basis.

I've been pretty Yamamoto or bust in free agency but seeing this makes me soften on that.

 

 

 

Good thing, BN had something out that said the Cubs were looking at the former but not the latter. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by CubinNY

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's also some very limited but promising Stuff+ data on Imanaga.  For me the question with him is two fold.  One is what is the velo in reality?  I'm seeing 91-94 and sits 94.  Even with the promising fastball characteristics I don't think a guy with Stroman velo is worth going out of the way for unless there's other changes different from what we expect(e.g. both Stroman and Hendricks are gone).  The other is that he was pretty home run prone for a good Japanese league starter.  Maybe given the repertoire and strike throwing abilities you can sequence your way to a better outcome on that front?  But still, it's a concern.

[We Got The Whole 9]

So likely not very interesting to the Cubs. A possible slight but expensive upgrade from Tauchman. 

[Bertz]

11 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There's also some very limited but promising Stuff+ data on Imanaga.  For me the question with him is two fold.  One is what is the velo in reality?  I'm seeing 91-94 and sits 94.  Even with the promising fastball characteristics I don't think a guy with Stroman velo is worth going out of the way for unless there's other changes different from what we expect(e.g. both Stroman and Hendricks are gone).  The other is that he was pretty home run prone for a good Japanese league starter.  Maybe given the repertoire and strike throwing abilities you can sequence your way to a better outcome on that front?  But still, it's a concern.

That linked article is really great.  It might also have the answer to the homerun problem buried in it

 

Quote

 

What I love about Imanaga is his fastball. The pitch supposedly sits about 94 mph and, aside from the excellent command which I’ve already mentioned, has over 20 inches of induced vertical break. That would put his fastball at least in the top 10 in the majors in terms of IVB.

Between the shape of the pitch and Imanaga’s height (or lack thereof), the pitch should play extremely well up in the zone, which really sets up Imanaga’s secondaries at the knees.

 

I'm not the most knowledgeable about the pitch design stuff, but I *believe* that high spin riding fastballs do great at the top of the zone and terrible at the bottom.  See this FG article, and the money chart mapping whiff rates:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visualized-primer-on-vertical-approach-angle-vaa/

I don't want to generalize about Japanese baseball too much, but I believe their pitchers are still generally taught to pitch to contact and get groundballs.  If Imanaga has a more western style repertoire but is trying to pitch low in the zone it might be a simple round peg square hole deal?

[KCCub]

I don’t see the Cardinals going toe to toe with the big dogs for Yamamoto. Even if they surprise everyone and sign Yamamoto, they still would have a horrible rotation. 

[Thusly Boned]

I like to think it's not just my bias, but I have Yamamoto to the Cards at near zero chance. Like 0.0001%

He's 1 or 1a on the list of available SP, the Cardinals don't give big money to SP (historically) and all of the big spenders are gonna be in. I just can't see it happening; I'd be gobsmacked.

[Bertz]

Cards were the runner up on David Price I believe?  So there's some precedent there for them actually being willing to shell out on a top of the market SP option.

That said, I'm a bit worried about Jed offering the dollars necessary but Yamamoto ultimately not wanting to come to Chicago.  Him wanting to spend the next 8-10 year of his life in St. Louis feels....significantly more unlikely.

[Thusly Boned]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Cards were the runner up on David Price I believe?  So there's some precedent there for them actually being willing to shell out on a top of the market SP option.

That said, I'm a bit worried about Jed offering the dollars necessary but Yamamoto ultimately not wanting to come to Chicago.  Him wanting to spend the next 8-10 year of his life in St. Louis feels....significantly more unlikely.

The Price pursuit is definitely an outlier, and they still lost.

It's not just the $200MM+ it's gonna take, but the posting fee. I just don't see it. Whatever STL offers, someone else will offer more.

Not only that, but living in STL, as you say. If Yamamoto comes to the central, I think it's the Cubs, who would almost certainly outbid STL, on top of being a better city, on top of the Cubs having a prominent Japanese player on the roster (for what that's worth, if anything).

All that said, I think it's fait accompli that Yamamoto ends up in NY or LA, and lazy and cliché as that prediction is.

[KCCub]

7 minutes ago, XZero77 said:

All that said, I think it's fait accompli that Yamamoto ends up in NY or LA, and lazy and cliché as that prediction is.

Giants are my bet. Lots of money to spend, tried to make a big splash last year, west coast, etc. 

You can ask any Cardinals fan - their ownership loves to have their name out there for optics for all these high profile players. I just don’t see them being the team to land the most sought after FA SP. Honestly a failure on their part by not building a competitive staff to go with Goldy and Arenado’s last few years of their prime. They have about 4 guys who need to be a DH and have refused to trade from their depth to add a cost controlled SP. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cardinals have the urgency and apparently Nootbaar is basically everyone's favorite person after he played for Japan in the WBC, so some of the same logic used for getting a Japanese FA to Chicago would apply.  

 

That said, I think they banked the FA signings that are lower years right away so they raised the floor and then can explore a bats for pitching trade on their terms where they aren't competing to hand out a 9 figure contract.  Cease, a SP from Miami or Seattle, those are much more on brand and feel much more likely than the Cardinals writing a big enough check to get a tippy top FA.

[Thusly Boned]

12 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Giants are my bet. Lots of money to spend, tried to make a big splash last year, west coast, etc. 

You can ask any Cardinals fan - their ownership loves to have their name out there for optics for all these high profile players. I just don’t see them being the team to land the most sought after FA SP. Honestly a failure on their part by not building a competitive staff to go with Goldy and Arenado’s last few years of their prime. They have about 4 guys who need to be a DH and have refused to trade from their depth to add a cost controlled SP. 

From an outsider's perspective, it seems like STL was a victim of their own success in recent years. For so long, their way of doing things (spending prudently, trading from their mid-tier of prospects, developing their top prospects) just worked out, and in 2023 the juice ran out, and there were no continencies. It's been coming for a few years, and really manifested last year.

Their system hasn't produced any really good SP, and they've been reticent to spend. If they don't suddenly discover the willingness to really spend or to deal from their pool of top prospects, they're looking at another 4th or 5th place finish next year.

Mozeliak can't afford to be risk averse at this point, but it sure looks like he will.

Edited November 21, 2023 by XZero77

[UMFan83]

35 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Giants are my bet. Lots of money to spend, tried to make a big splash last year, west coast, etc. 

You can ask any Cardinals fan - their ownership loves to have their name out there for optics for all these high profile players. I just don’t see them being the team to land the most sought after FA SP. Honestly a failure on their part by not building a competitive staff to go with Goldy and Arenado’s last few years of their prime. They have about 4 guys who need to be a DH and have refused to trade from their depth to add a cost controlled SP. 

not sure if it will be him but I’m like 99% certain the Giants will make a splash somewhere, but for whatever reason I think it will be a position player. But yeah they won’t allow themselves to be left holding the bag again after being torched by their fanbase last winter

[mul21]

14 hours ago, XZero77 said:

From an outsider's perspective, it seems like STL was a victim of their own success in recent years. For so long, their way of doing things (spending prudently, trading from their mid-tier of prospects, developing their top prospects) just worked out, and in 2023 the juice ran out, and there were no continencies. It's been coming for a few years, and really manifested last year.

Their system hasn't produced any really good SP, and they've been reticent to spend. If they don't suddenly discover the willingness to really spend or to deal from their pool of top prospects, they're looking at another 4th or 5th place finish next year.

Mozeliak can't afford to be risk averse at this point, but it sure looks like he will.

He was asked point blank about spending $200MM on a free agent pitcher during the Gibson presser yesterday and he stuttered and stammered about terms of the deal and length etc.  He sure didn't sound like a guy who was going to come out guns blazing with a 9 figure contract offer for a resource they desperately need.

[Thusly Boned]

4 hours ago, mul21 said:

He was asked point blank about spending $200MM on a free agent pitcher during the Gibson presser yesterday and he stuttered and stammered about terms of the deal and length etc.  He sure didn't sound like a guy who was going to come out guns blazing with a 9 figure contract offer for a resource they desperately need.

Yeah, I listened to the "highlights" of that presser and it only reinforced my thoughts. I know a lot of Cards fans were certainly not reassured.

[ILMindState]

https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1727411979491701214?s=20

 

Do your thing Seiya

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1727411979491701214?s=20

 

Do your thing Seiya

So predominantly would mean of the teams previously linked to Yamamoto, CHC(Suzuki), Mets(Senga), Blue Jays(Kikuchi) and BOS(Yoshida) would be the only ones with Japanese players on their teams, leaving LAD, STL, ARI, DET, SFG and NYY on the outside looking in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

So predominantly would mean of the teams previously linked to Yamamoto, CHC(Suzuki), Mets(Senga), Blue Jays(Kikuchi) and BOS(Yoshida) would be the only ones with Japanese players on their teams, leaving LAD, STL, ARI, DET, SFG and NYY on the outside looking in.

STL has Nootbaar, and any team could presumably sign Imanaga or especially Matsui too.

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

STL has Nootbaar, and any team could presumably sign Imanaga or especially Matsui too.

I know Nootbaar is half Japanese, but does he speak the language well, because I assume that's kind of the whole point of wanting to play with another Japanese player. From everything I'm read, he's extremely basic in his Japanese, so it would be like talking to a baby.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

I know Nootbaar is half Japanese, but does he speak the language well, because I assume that's kind of the whole point of wanting to play with another Japanese player. From everything I'm read, he's extremely basic in his Japanese, so it would be like talking to a baby.

Yamamoto is apparently golfing with Nootbaar today.