Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

either jed is in complete stealth mode, or we just aren't in on these top guys

 

 

Based on recent reports on the Cubs not being interested in the price tag, it's feeling likely that the Cubs are just not involved.

[JBears79]

Yeah. Seems like the Cubs are sitting this one out...again.

[CubinNY]

I thought Jed flew to Japan to meet his representatives. I swear I read that somewhere. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I thought Jed flew to Japan to meet his representatives. I swear I read that somewhere. 

He did fly to Japan during the season. Not sure who he spoke with. Probably the Hispanic lefty relief pitcher we signed from Japan. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Rcal10

[ILMindState]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

He did fly to Japan during the season. Not sure who he spoke with. Probably the lefty relief pitcher we signed from Japan. 

I really hope Jed didn't fly all the way to Japan to sign a lefty reliever who's name I don't even remember.

[NorthsideAvenger]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He did fly to Japan during the season. Not sure who he spoke with. Probably the Hispanic lefty relief pitcher we signed from Japan. 

Maybe Imanaga? We know the Cubs are interested in him. 

[Rcal10]

50 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I really hope Jed didn't fly all the way to Japan to sign a lefty reliever who's name I don't even remember.

Guess I needed the sarcasm font. I am sure he didn’t go there only to talk to the guy we did sign. 

[CubinNY]

I'm not going to complain, but it would be so Cubs for them to come out of this offseason with Imgawa kind of like they did with Swanson. Third place, but not a distant third. 

[Bertz]

Feels like everyone is talking themselves into Yamamoto being a super-ace but I'm not actually sure that he is?  The projections are more all star than Cy Young, and I'm not sure age for pitchers is enough reason to jump him up into the $250-300M range?

Giving Yamamoto the reported money feels very "well we've gotta do something big" and not something that would hold up to even a little bit of scrutiny. 

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Feels like everyone is talking themselves into Yamamoto being a super-ace but I'm not actually sure that he is?  The projections are more all star than Cy Young, and I'm not sure age for pitchers is enough reason to jump him up into the $250-300M range?

Giving Yamamoto the reported money feels very "well we've gotta do something big" and not something that would hold up to even a little bit of scrutiny. 

I don't think he's a super-ace, but Eno Saris ran a really good article today on the Athletic looking for comparables on lots of his data. Basically, he concluded that he thinks that based on stuff+, history, age, etc, that Yamamoto has everything you'd look for if you were scouting an ace, but with perhaps questions on durability and size. 

"We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination but also has not necessarily existed in one human being before.

Nobody knows what they’ll get for sure, but it’s clear that the underlying data suggests that his future MLB team is getting an ace and that the only question is how many innings they’ll get for their trouble."

I'd guess teams are excited about the combined stuff+age for Yamamoto. I'm guessing the AAV will still be in the high 20's and low 30's with some sort of a 10 year contract (with possibly an opt out after, say, 6?). But I also get why you'd be in that market. How many 25 year old aces hit the free market? If you're looking at the stuff+ data and the like, this is rare, one shot, for a team. Normally when we see aces hit the market, you get guys like Snell; already into their 30's. This is a free, money-only shot at grabbing someone who has half a decade before they hit 30 with ace-upside stuff. Even if he hits all-star level instead of bonafied Cy-Young, that's rare occurrence in the MLB. Take it when you get it, right?

There's real risk there too, he's a pitcher and a pretty diminutive one in terms of what we're used to seeing in terms of size. Maybe his stuff doesn't translate completely. But if you're a big market, there's always risk in arms, so if you can buy an ace for money...go for it. I'd really appreciate the Cubs being in on this one for these reasons; stuff wise he fits a need, age wise he fits a long term piece, and I just don't think you get many shots to just...buy a ready made potential ace. I also think they're more risk adverse than me and likely won't be. They seem to be pretty wary of these long term contracts. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think he's a super-ace, but Eno Saris ran a really good article today on the Athletic looking for comparables on lots of his data. Basically, he concluded that he thinks that based on stuff+, history, age, etc, that Yamamoto has everything you'd look for if you were scouting an ace, but with perhaps questions on durability and size. 

"We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination but also has not necessarily existed in one human being before.

Nobody knows what they’ll get for sure, but it’s clear that the underlying data suggests that his future MLB team is getting an ace and that the only question is how many innings they’ll get for their trouble."

I'd guess teams are excited about the combined stuff+age for Yamamoto. I'm guessing the AAV will still be in the high 20's and low 30's with some sort of a 10 year contract (with possibly an opt out after, say, 6?). But I also get why you'd be in that market. How many 25 year old aces hit the free market? If you're looking at the stuff+ data and the like, this is rare, one shot, for a team. Normally when we see aces hit the market, you get guys like Snell; already into their 30's. This is a free, money-only shot at grabbing someone who has half a decade before they hit 30 with ace-upside stuff. Even if he hits all-star level instead of bonafied Cy-Young, that's rare occurrence in the MLB. Take it when you get it, right?

There's real risk there too, he's a pitcher and a pretty diminutive one in terms of what we're used to seeing in terms of size. Maybe his stuff doesn't translate completely. But if you're a big market, there's always risk in arms, so if you can buy an ace for money...go for it. I'd really appreciate the Cubs being in on this one for these reasons; stuff wise he fits a need, age wise he fits a long term piece, and I just don't think you get many shots to just...buy a ready made potential ace. I also think they're more risk adverse than me and likely won't be. They seem to be pretty wary of these long term contracts. 

These are the top MLB starters age 24-25 from five years ago in 2018.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2018&season=2018&age=24&age=25&qual=100

Today 6 of the top 9 have been devoured by the attrition monster.  Though to be fair on the other hand #s 10-13 are better today than they were then.

Yamamoto is probably something like a Luis Castillo or Kevin Gausman caliber starter?  That's awesome!  Those tend to top out around $150M though.  Why would we pay Yamamoto as much as two of those types combined?  What are the odds he's twice as good as e.g Jordan Montgomery over the course of their next contracts?  It's pretty unlikely if you ask me.

Again this all feels like wanting to do something almost as big as Ohtani as a statement and trying to will Yamamoto into being that guy.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I'm not going to complain, but it would be so Cubs for them to come out of this offseason with Imgawa kind of like they did with Swanson. Third place, but not a distant third. 

Imanaga is definitely the most Cubs plausible of Ohtani, Yamamoto and Imanaga.  He's older, won't cost as much in terms of contract length, I'd be OK with Imanaga.

[Jason Ross]

55 minutes ago, Bertz said:

These are the top MLB starters age 24-25 from five years ago in 2018.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2018&season=2018&age=24&age=25&qual=100

Today 6 of the top 9 have been devoured by the attrition monster.  Though to be fair on the other hand #s 10-13 are better today than they were then.

Yamamoto is probably something like a Luis Castillo or Kevin Gausman caliber starter?  That's awesome!  Those tend to top out around $150M though.  Why would we pay Yamamoto as much as two of those types combined?  What are the odds he's twice as good as e.g Jordan Montgomery over the course of their next contracts?  It's pretty unlikely if you ask me.

Again this all feels like wanting to do something almost as big as Ohtani as a statement and trying to will Yamamoto into being that guy.

I guess I'd ask you this: if Kevin Gausman was 25 years old today, do you think he'd get 5/$110m? I think he's one of the more criminally under paid players in baseball right now, but he had a lot of circumstances as to why he got there. He was pretty much a mediocre-to-failed SP for much of his career with only one solid year under his belt. I think if Kevin Gausman was a 25 year old free agent today, he'd be paid far above and beyond that. Probably approaching $250-$300m.

I think you're paying a bit of a premium for Yamamoto because he's a unique free agent based on age. Let's put it another way: Aaron Nola just picked up an AAV of $25m and Sonny Gray, one of $25m. If we assume Yamamoto if of their quality, which I think is around these two, then you're looking at another $25m AAV Now multiply that out 10 years. Why the years? His age is incredibly unique. I have a feeling the "$250m" price tag is not coming with a 7 year commitment, but likely,  continuing the trend we're seeing of teams adding years to lower AAV. At that point, you're saying he's somewhere between a SP who had a 3.6-3.8 xFIP and would be worth around high 3's to low 5's on his fWAR. I think that's right in that "ace-but-not-Cy-Young" territory. Even if you're getting a bit on the high end, in the $30m AAV, I think that's a product of age+inflation+rising CBT tax lines (we didn't see this with the last CBA, remember). That's not a crazy high suggestion. The belief is that he's a better prospect than Kodai Senga, and Senga finished with 3.4 fWAR, and a 3.77 xFIP. 

How likely is it he's twice as good as Montgomery? I think decently likely...Jordan Montgomery is 31 years old. How many fWAR are we thinking Montgomery is going to be worth over the next, say, 5 years? 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5 feels like a pretty fair guess on fWAR for his progression. So what, 16.5 fWAR? Do I think Yamamoto on a 10 year deal can double that? Baring health, I think there's an argument that a 25 year old pitcher between 25-34 will get to ~32-33 fWAR. That's what a fraction over a 3 fWAR average? That's not easy, but again, that age is doing a lot of work here. 

In the end, I don't think I agree this is just wanting to do something as big as Ohtani. A lot of this comes down to scouting and you've got to trust your scouting here. What I've got is some really cool Eno Saris stuff, so it's not what MLB teams have, regardless of how cool Saris' stuff is. That's something we should take into account. But I don't think teams like the Dodgers (who already did the Ohtani thing) and the Yankees, Mets, Giants...have all whipped themselves into a frenzy over this just hoping it's another Ohtani. I don't think Eno Saris did either. I very much believe the Chicago Cubs, when given the chance to acquire a 25 year old with ace-type stuff, even if he's not generational-type-stuff, for money only, should be there. It's one thing if the Cubs internal scouting just says "hey, maybe this isn't an ace type guy". It's another if the Cubs are saying the contract is too scary for them. If it's the first, I fully understand and defer. If it's the second...then I am becoming a bit worried on their hunger to ever land the type of player they may never develop themselves.

Edited December 12, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

59 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Baring health, I think there's an argument that a 25 year old pitcher between 25-34 will get to ~32-33 fWAR. That's what a fraction over a 3 fWAR average? That's not easy, but again, that age is doing a lot of work here. 

This is the crux of things IMO.  This is a MUCH taller order in my mind than yours I think.  If I'm dashboarding correctly, there have been only 25 guys since the start of the century to amass 30+ WAR in their age 25-34 seasons

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2000&season=2023&qual=500&age=25%2C34

I just don't think his age does that much work.  Pitchers will break your heart, and the extent to which a 25 year old is safer than a 30 year old is pretty nominal IMO.

Yamamoto is a great starting point, he certainly gives you better odds than most of achieving something like that.  But he's also 5'10", switching to a new ball, and going to lose a day of rest in between every start.  So he's also go elevated risk beyond just being a pitcher.  There's a reason no one before or since Cole has sniffed $300M, and it's because things have to line up pretty much perfectly for that to not be a terrible investment.

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is the crux of things IMO.  This is a MUCH taller order in my mind than yours I think.  If I'm dashboarding correctly, there have been only 25 guys since the start of the century to amass 30+ WAR in their age 25-34 seasons

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2000&season=2023&qual=500&age=25%2C34

I just don't think his age does that much work.  Pitchers will break your heart, and the extent to which a 25 year old is safer than a 30 year old is pretty nominal IMO.

Yamamoto is a great starting point, he certainly gives you better odds than most of achieving something like that.  But he's also 5'10", switching to a new ball, and going to lose a day of rest in between every start.  So he's also go elevated risk beyond just being a pitcher.  There's a reason no one before or since Cole has sniffed $300M, and it's because things have to line up pretty much perfectly for that to not be a terrible investment.

I don't think we've had a single SP hit the free market, especially post new CBA (with new luxury tax lines) who's in the same ballpark as Cole, however. Inflation is going up, and with the LT going up (at a much larger and more consistent rate) I think we have to readjust where contracts are going. This is also going to play a role in what $30m today means, versus, say, $30m in 2030. Look at what the league has done to the Bryce Harper contract. His $25m AAV in 5 years is what Cody Bellinger might get? This also plays into how we should look at his contract long term, too. 

Secondly, while 25 guys may have amassed 30 fWAR, 33 have made 28 fWAR. Over 10 years, the difference between, say, 28 and 30 fWAR is fractional: .2 fWAR per season. We know what fractional fWAR is. That's not to completely move goal posts, but to say that I think there's wiggle room when we consider the, likely, rising costs of all contracts, inflation, and fractional fWAR to determine if he's going to be worth, roughly, 2x more than Montgomery.

Hell, we can do this as well: how many SP have been worth 16.5 fWAR between 31 and 36 in that same span? 20, if we're including Adam Wainright at 16.4. I may be over reaching on the Jordan Montgomery fWAR curve, making 16.5 fWAR through those years, if we're being honest. Based on this data set, we've seen more pitchers reach 30 fWAR from ages 25-34 than we have 16.5 fWAR from ages 31-36. The number Yamamoto needs to hit seems, likely, lower than the target I originally set.

In the end, I think we really need to rely on team scouting here, which you and I just, can't do, we don't have access to that. But I don't think this many MLB teams have just, lost their minds here, either. I think there's a damn good reason many of the teams who can afford this kind of contract are all clamoring for him. We'll see where it comes in, and I don't know if it'll reach that level. But when you're a large market, you can afford to be a bit riskier. Maybe it wont be a pure surplus value win, but I'm willing to trust some pretty good organizations here on their internals.

Where I ultimately end up on this whole thing is this: it's one thing if the Cubs have the drop on these teams, and I'll accept that's a real-world possibility, but it's another if they're being overly cautious and refuse to accept that there is never a perfect time to go get great players. They've done pretty good in scouting pitching over the last 3+ years, both at the MLB level and the MiLB level (with some misses) so believing the Cubs scouting is the hold up here and there's something there they don't love is a thing we can likely believe. But the Cubs seem like the large market team on an island here, as well. Perhaps it's being coy, not playing the game of letting everyone know that they're in and they do really love Yamamoto and aren't on that island, as well (if so, good job, Jed! and it wouldn't be the first time). But they seemed pretty interested previously, both in the summer sending scouts over and at the start of the offseason being deemed a favorite to sign him, and now don't seem that enthused (both reports and Hoyer's comments). And I'll say...that gives me some pause.

Edited December 12, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

 

[Derwood]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

 

None of these Twitter hacks knows a damn thing about what's happening or not happening

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

None of these Twitter hacks knows a damn thing about what's happening or not happening

I wouldn't call Jon Heyman a twitter hack. Sam Olbur (who runs a pretty solid prospect-centric twitter account in his own right) was just relaying information from a Jon Heyman interview (which supports comments made by Sharma today about the Cubs and Yamamoto). Heyman can be a bit of a mouthpiece from time to time, but in terms of being "in the know" he's probably right below the Passan/Rosenthal level.

Edited December 13, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[SOFNR]

Hoyer is patiently waiting for all the big market teams to stop spending so he can compete with the smaller markets on thrift deals.

[imb]

is there even a hint of evidence that he's wrong or are we just moving into the bargaining phase of offseason grief?

[ILMindState]

Rosenthal also made no mention of the Cubs in his article this morning. He's probably going to LA

[Post Count Padder]

Can I interest you all in a lightly used Frankie Montas or Jakub Junis? How about a nice James Paxton?

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Can I interest you all in a lightly used Frankie Montas or Jakub Junis? How about a nice James Paxton?

Plus a player option?

[ToolDRT]

This team can be a real f****** disgrace at times. I’d do just about anything to have Hoyer fired and a different owner. 

[ToolDRT]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Plus a player option?

Yeah right. Jed will make damn sure it’s a guaranteed second year! Have to impact our mid-market budget for 2025 as well.