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Posted

The Reds are really interesting. They're pretty good basically everywhere, they just don't have any star power beyond Votto and Suarez. Very similar to the Pirates honestly.

 

But the most Reds thing that could possibly happen is for this to be the year Votto gets old which just gives back most of the gains they make with their pitching staff.

Posted

It's going to be hard for NL Central teams to pile up any easy wins this year.

 

Whereas Cleveland really should win 100 games if they're any good at the plate.

Posted
Gj Reds, their pitching might take a giant leap forward this year. They’ve piled up alot of velocity and spin on some still young arms...That extension’s a potential steal too. If they make a clever enough move in CF that’s probably a competitive lineup given the bum ass rest of the league

 

I might be willing to say they’ll be a top 3 team in the division by the end of joke of an offseason. No one’s really trying hard to run away with it

The extension isn’t going to kill them but they very much are Chatwood’ing him with the logic for the extension with the road splits, spin and GB rates. Seems like both sides should’ve just played it out. He’s 30 so idk how much upside is really left from the team perspective and from his perspective even with 1 remotely good year he could exceed $30 mil (Lance Lynn just got 3/30) but I guess he never got paid before and this sets him and his family up for life and is the “safe” move. Agree they could easily finish 3rd, still don’t get what they are entirely doing trying to lock in 76-80 wins other than making the division more annoying.

 

Speaking of Chatwood.... if Sonny Gray is worth this (4/40+ guaranteed + ~$10+ million in prospect and draft pick value) Chatwood has to at least be a little moveable with a prospect(s) attached at 2/25 or whatever it is.

Posted

OTOH totally agreed that Chatwood should generate some trade interest, but we knew that before this deal. The A’s, Angels, Orioles, Twins, Blue Jays...Lots of teams need the innings

 

If Chatwood generated any trade interest, he'd have been traded by now.

Posted

Two years ago, the Cubs traded for Justin Wilson, and he was a disaster. He couldn’t find the plate, and the trade was a failure....that year. He was pretty solid last year.

 

My hope is that zchatwood follows a similar path. I’d be happy if he weren’t a dumpster fire this upcoming season.

Posted
Two years ago, the Cubs traded for Justin Wilson, and he was a disaster. He couldn’t find the plate, and the trade was a failure....that year. He was pretty solid last year.

 

My hope is that zchatwood follows a similar path. I’d be happy if he weren’t a dumpster fire this upcoming season.

 

If Chatwood gave us a 2017 John Lackey season, how would you feel? I can’t imagine a more optimistic outcome.

Posted
Two years ago, the Cubs traded for Justin Wilson, and he was a disaster. He couldn’t find the plate, and the trade was a failure....that year. He was pretty solid last year.

 

My hope is that zchatwood follows a similar path. I’d be happy if he weren’t a dumpster fire this upcoming season.

 

If Chatwood gave us a 2017 John Lackey season, how would you feel? I can’t imagine a more optimistic outcome.

 

It's easy to imagine a more optimistic outcome, because he delivered it as recently as 2017. Is it likely? No - Chatwood was really, really broken last season. But if he's fixed, unlikely as that is, there's no reason why in theory he won't be fixed all the way. Which would be better than Lackey '17.

Posted

I think the rosey outcome for Chatwood is that he's a good reliever. While I am certainly not saying it's the most likely outcome, you don't have to squint too hard to see 2017 Wade Davis. In relief Chatwood would presumably drop the sinker and the change, and go fastball/cutter/curve, just like Davis. Wade also had similar issues throwing strikes. He threw 43.4%of his pitches in the zone in 2017, Chatwood was at 43.3% last year.

 

The problem with Chatwood last year is that he would lose the zone for like 10-12 pitches at a time. So while the percentages are similar I think Chatwood might be more prone to meltdown. That being said maybe focusing on only 2-3 pitches would help with that. The velocity bump might help help too.

Posted
I think the rosey outcome for Chatwood is that he's a good reliever. While I am certainly not saying it's the most likely outcome, you don't have to squint too hard to see 2017 Wade Davis. In relief Chatwood would presumably drop the sinker and the change, and go fastball/cutter/curve, just like Davis. Wade also had similar issues throwing strikes. He threw 43.4%of his pitches in the zone in 2017, Chatwood was at 43.3% last year.

 

The problem with Chatwood last year is that he would lose the zone for like 10-12 pitches at a time. So while the percentages are similar I think Chatwood might be more prone to meltdown. That being said maybe focusing on only 2-3 pitches would help with that. The velocity bump might help help too.

In theory he has the stuff to be a good reliever (it should even play up) but like you said the control is such a huge deal to trust a reliever with and idk if they’d be willing to give him the time and opportunity to do it. Maybe he’d agree to go to Iowa our of ST (is that allowed?) to work on converting to a RP and focuse on 2-3 pitches.

Posted
I wouldn't think opportunity would be a big problem. He's gonna make the roster, and if nothing else Joe has the sliding scale of relievers he trusts late in games. To start I imagine he'd be soaking up innings in long relief, and if he's effective he'd move up the chain, like we've seen several folks do in the last couple years(2018 Wilson, for example).
Posted
I think the rosiest outcome for Chatwood would be pitching relatively effectively for a month of Spring training such that he’s a reasonable trade target for a team that loses a starting pitcher for the year in March.
Posted
Chatwood could turn into a non-trashbag human being version of Chapman and he'll still be one of the main reasons the Ricketts are cowards and denied us Harper or Machado. I hope he flunks out of baseball.
Posted
I mean Pomeranz was awful, hurt? and his velo was down last year. This seems like the type of deal he should be getting and shouldn’t have been in any contenders planned rotation.
Posted
I mean Pomeranz was awful, hurt? and his velo was down last year. This seems like the type of deal he should be getting and shouldn’t have been in any contenders planned rotation.

I sure as hell would not be happy if the Cubs intentionally went into 2019 with him in the rotation.

Posted
I mean Pomeranz was awful, hurt? and his velo was down last year. This seems like the type of deal he should be getting and shouldn’t have been in any contenders planned rotation.

I sure as hell would not be happy if the Cubs intentionally went into 2019 with him in the rotation.

Right. For SP depth on a AAA deal in the Alec Mills range of the depth chart, sure I guess, or even to try him as a bullpen option out of ST. But to have him be planned to be in the rotation with only Monty or Chatwood as the fallback would not be pretty dumb.

Posted
I mean Pomeranz was awful, hurt? and his velo was down last year. This seems like the type of deal he should be getting and shouldn’t have been in any contenders planned rotation.

 

Less about Pomeranz in particular, but any buy low candidate is going to be low for a good reason. You don't have to bank on 200 IP from Pomeranz or his proxy, but you also have internal options(Start Montgomery) and buy low options are easier to stack for cheap too.

Posted
I mean Pomeranz was awful, hurt? and his velo was down last year. This seems like the type of deal he should be getting and shouldn’t have been in any contenders planned rotation.

 

Less about Pomeranz in particular, but any buy low candidate is going to be low for a good reason. You don't have to bank on 200 IP from Pomeranz or his proxy, but you also have internal options(Start Montgomery) and buy low options are easier to stack for cheap too.

 

im with you. we know how slow the market moves now, why spend 99 percent of your FA budget on Day One on 53-year old Cole Hamels when you could wait the market out and get 75 percent of whatever value he'll provide for pennies on the dollar in January or February

 

again, cole hamels is bad, and i feel like im on the right side of history by saying so

 

edit: Hamels, despite being mostly otherworldly with the cubs, was worth the same WAR last year as clay bucholz (who pitched 16 games.) How much is Bucholz getting this year, because it sure isn't gonna be twenty fuggen million.

Posted
I mean Pomeranz was awful, hurt? and his velo was down last year. This seems like the type of deal he should be getting and shouldn’t have been in any contenders planned rotation.

 

Less about Pomeranz in particular, but any buy low candidate is going to be low for a good reason. You don't have to bank on 200 IP from Pomeranz or his proxy, but you also have internal options(Start Montgomery) and buy low options are easier to stack for cheap too.

 

im with you. we know how slow the market moves now, why spend 99 percent of your FA budget on Day One on 53-year old Cole Hamels when you could wait the market out and get 75 percent of whatever value he'll provide for pennies on the dollar in January or February

 

again, cole hamels is bad, and i feel like im on the right side of history by saying so

 

edit: Hamels, despite being mostly otherworldly with the cubs, was worth the same WAR last year as clay bucholz (who pitched 16 games.) How much is Bucholz getting this year, because it sure isn't gonna be twenty fuggen million.

Bucholz elbow is fucked up, fwiw. He was shut down and had that PRP injection. Harvey and Lynn got around $10 mil on aav. Unless we are absolutely dumpster diving we weren’t saving a ton on the SP addition (and again there has to be some consideration given that we “saved” $7 million with the Smyly swap).

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