Darvish to Cubs, 6/$126 Million + Incentives

[Bertz]

Much much thanks to TT/Xero and Bertz (for the start/chart) for the input and explanation/rationalization. VERY apprecited.

 

So IF I have this "correct"....lets say the Cubs are in the "green" this year...ie: UNDER the tax threshold, and to make things easy and round for "arguments" sake...NEXT season they sign Harper and end up 25 million over the "threshold".

 

They THEN would be, again if I understand correctly... "on the hook" to pay a 20% "tax" on THE AMOUNT OVER THE THRESHOLD...which in this rough case would be 5 million dollars (20% of 25 million)...THEN after 2019...when Zobrist comes off the books (That's almost half way to getting back that 30 alone) and again, for a rough arguments sake...let Strop 6.3/Cishek/6.5 and Duensing 3.5 walk and fill those spots from within, at league minimum...all else being equal (which I know isn't) would, for the purposes of this exercise (give or take a few hundred thousand), then put them back under the threshold for 2020...which is set at 208 mill. and "reset" the repeat offenders escalators..?

 

Thanks fellas...

 

So the spreadsheet has us letting those guys go and replacing them with league minimum guys, and we're still over in 2020 because guys like Bryant and Russell and Hendricks are getting more expensive through arbitration. If we sign Harper, it's likely that we won't get under the tax for several years, probably not until the new CBA when (presumably) the limits have been significantly raised.

 

The new TV deal is the silver bullet here. We'll see when we get the details, but it's likely that it will allow us to spend at or near the Yankees/Dodgers level. That means that we should be able to blow past the luxury tax number. At that point the "real" cap is likely $40 million above the tax, because at that point the tax is nearly dollar for dollar AND it starts hurting us in the draft.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

I really hope they do something along these lines to give Darvish and Lester as much extra time off between starts as they can.

yeah, agreed.

 

would it make sense to do a 6-man rotation every other time around the rotation?

Pitchers like to be on a set routine, though

I think they'd be more apt to skip a guy every other time through and throw Monty in favorable matchups, allowing most guys to stay on schedule most of the year.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

the Cards are banking on mitt-popping potential, high ceilings and cost-controlled arms, which could also give them flexibility when the free agent market has A-listers next winter. The Cubs are banking on past performances — and projections of future ones, albeit for guys born in the 1980s.

 

That is some mental gymnastiness right there. So having cost-controlled pitchers which allows you to go out an spend for position players is "mitt-popping," but if you have cost-controlled position players and spend on SPs in the free market, you are banking on past performances?!?

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/03/does-not-get-it.gif

[weis21]

yeah, agreed.

 

would it make sense to do a 6-man rotation every other time around the rotation?

Pitchers like to be on a set routine, though

I think they'd be more apt to skip a guy every other time through and throw Monty in favorable matchups, allowing most guys to stay on schedule most of the year.

yeah that sounds about right and i could get on board with that for sure. not that anyone was being snarky or anything but that was the rationale behind "would it make sense?" in the OP - just thinking out loud.

 

this method would give montgomery some starts which should make him happy while also having him (on some nights) as an asset in the pen. also to help minimize the innings for the starters. win-win-win

[jersey cubs fan]

Shoot for getting everybody 30 starts, leaving 12 for Monty. 2 per month. Somebody will miss more time, giving him a shot at 15+ starts.

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[CyHawk_Cub]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

too low

[Gilby]

lol, it cracks me up how many interviews/quotes Gimenez has given since he signed his minor league deal. Dude is very self-aware.

[David]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/962768878119079936[/tweet]

 

haha

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Cubs signed the best player available this offseason; even though they didn’t really need him because they were the best team in the division without him, and I doubt it will impact their status as favorites to get the best player available next offseason.

 

I wonder if Epstein misses having a Yankees in the division to jazz things up

[champaignchris]

I wonder if Epstein misses having a Yankees in the division to jazz things up

 

He's probably just fine having the National League version of the Yankees (the Dodgers) in another division. Makes winning the division more certain, but you still have to beat a damn good team to get to the WS.

[The_Achiever]

the Cards are banking on mitt-popping potential, high ceilings and cost-controlled arms, which could also give them flexibility when the free agent market has A-listers next winter. The Cubs are banking on past performances — and projections of future ones, albeit for guys born in the 1980s.

 

That is some mental gymnastiness right there. So having cost-controlled pitchers which allows you to go out an spend for position players is "mitt-popping," but if you have cost-controlled position players and spend on SPs in the free market, you are banking on past performances?!?

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/03/does-not-get-it.gif

 

The whole thing reeked of envy masked as sanctimony.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

wow, I guess yu just never know what yu will miss when yu decide to spend a weekend in freeport (illinois not bahamas yu guys)

[itisallpartoftheplan]

[minnesotacubsfan]

wow, I guess yu just never know what yu will miss when yu decide to spend a weekend in freeport (illinois not bahamas yu guys)

 

 

They dont have sports news in Calista Flockheart’s hometown? Just pretzels?

[davell]

 

LOL

[Omar]

Did Lackey ever officially retire?

 

no

[craig]

Much much thanks to TT/Xero and Bertz (for the start/chart) for the input and explanation/rationalization. VERY apprecited.

 

So IF I have this "correct"....lets say the Cubs are in the "green" this year...ie: UNDER the tax threshold, and to make things easy and round for "arguments" sake...NEXT season they sign Harper and end up 25 million over the "threshold".

 

They THEN would be, again if I understand correctly... "on the hook" to pay a 20% "tax" on THE AMOUNT OVER THE THRESHOLD...which in this rough case would be 5 million dollars (20% of 25 million)...THEN after 2019...when Zobrist comes off the books (That's almost half way to getting back that 30 alone) and again, for a rough arguments sake...let Strop 6.3/Cishek/6.5 and Duensing 3.5 walk and fill those spots from within, at league minimum...all else being equal (which I know isn't) would, for the purposes of this exercise (give or take a few hundred thousand), then put them back under the threshold for 2020...which is set at 208 mill. and "reset" the repeat offenders escalators..?

 

Thanks fellas...

 

So the spreadsheet has us letting those guys go and replacing them with league minimum guys, and we're still over in 2020 because guys like Bryant and Russell and Hendricks are getting more expensive through arbitration. If we sign Harper, it's likely that we won't get under the tax for several years, probably not until the new CBA when (presumably) the limits have been significantly raised.

 

The new TV deal is the silver bullet here. We'll see when we get the details, but it's likely that it will allow us to spend at or near the Yankees/Dodgers level. That means that we should be able to blow past the luxury tax number. At that point the "real" cap is likely $40 million above the tax, because at that point the tax is nearly dollar for dollar AND it starts hurting us in the draft.

 

Yes. The young players are going to inflate and inflate and inflate. *IF* they were to sign Harper, it would have to be so with the acceptance that we'll be over the lux line and and accepting lux-penalties until the next CBA comes around.

 

Not sure whether or not that will happen. But that might just need to be the price of doing business. Hopefully they win enough this year, and seem poised to keep on doing so, where being well north of lux line and absorbing lux penalties is considered acceptable.

 

I do think it's especially desirable that somehow some of last summer's draft picks work out; and that this draft, with late 1st and 2nd picks, plus 2 extra 2nds, that they hit on some guys. Ideally plural.

[David]

So this is easily the biggest Japanese star the Cubs have ever had. I hope we get some fun Japanese media hijinks. Especially when Joe starts bringing Emus around and stuff.

[Sammy Sofa]

So this is easily the biggest Japanese star the Cubs have ever had. I hope we get some fun Japanese media hijinks. Especially when Joe starts bringing Emus around and stuff.

 

Hopefully a lot of the fans have grown the horsefeathers up since the Fukudome days.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

So this is easily the biggest Japanese star the Cubs have ever had. I hope we get some fun Japanese media hijinks. Especially when Joe starts bringing Emus around and stuff.

 

Hopefully a lot of the fans have grown the horsefeathers up since the Fukudome days.

[spoil]they haven’t[/spoil]

[David]

So this is easily the biggest Japanese star the Cubs have ever had. I hope we get some fun Japanese media hijinks. Especially when Joe starts bringing Emus around and stuff.

 

Hopefully a lot of the fans have grown the horsefeathers up since the Fukudome days.

I'm hopeful but not optimistic.

 

I guess that was literally ten years ago tho. Hopefully there are fewer idiots.

[Neuby]

So this is easily the biggest Japanese star the Cubs have ever had. I hope we get some fun Japanese media hijinks. Especially when Joe starts bringing Emus around and stuff.

 

Hopefully a lot of the fans have grown the horsefeathers up since the Fukudome days.

I'm hopeful but not optimistic.

 

I guess that was literally ten years ago tho. Hopefully there are fewer idiots.

 

Kyuji Fujikawa

Tsuyoshi Wada

Munenori Kawasaki

Koji Uehara

 

The Cubs have had quite a few Japanese players since Fukudome and fans have behaved.

[Derwood]

So this is easily the biggest Japanese star the Cubs have ever had. I hope we get some fun Japanese media hijinks. Especially when Joe starts bringing Emus around and stuff.

 

Hopefully a lot of the fans have grown the horsefeathers up since the Fukudome days.

I'm hopeful but not optimistic.

 

I guess that was literally ten years ago tho. Hopefully there are fewer idiots.

 

 

There are more idiots