Darvish to Cubs, 6/$126 Million + Incentives

[David]

ahhh crap i misread Edited February 11, 2018 by David

[Ram1380]

Much much thanks to TT/Xero and Bertz (for the start/chart) for the input and explanation/rationalization. VERY apprecited.

 

So IF I have this "correct"....lets say the Cubs are in the "green" this year...ie: UNDER the tax threshold, and to make things easy and round for "arguments" sake...NEXT season they sign Harper and end up 25 million over the "threshold".

 

They THEN would be, again if I understand correctly... "on the hook" to pay a 20% "tax" on THE AMOUNT OVER THE THRESHOLD...which in this rough case would be 5 million dollars (20% of 25 million)...THEN after 2019...when Zobrist comes off the books (That's almost half way to getting back that 30 alone) and again, for a rough arguments sake...let Strop 6.3/Cishek/6.5 and Duensing 3.5 walk and fill those spots from within, at league minimum...all else being equal (which I know isn't) would, for the purposes of this exercise (give or take a few hundred thousand), then put them back under the threshold for 2020...which is set at 208 mill. and "reset" the repeat offenders escalators..?

 

Thanks fellas...

[cubsclapp]

The Brewers Insider guy has moved to twitter after a pretty fun blowup to read on their board but lol....

 

https://twitter.com/high_heat_19/status/962566720752967680

 

 

https://twitter.com/High_Heat_19/status/962418681564356609

 

Lol at everything about that tweet.

[imb]

The Brewers Insider guy has moved to twitter after a pretty fun blowup to read on their board but lol....

 

https://twitter.com/high_heat_19/status/962566720752967680

 

 

https://twitter.com/High_Heat_19/status/962418681564356609

 

Lol at everything about that tweet.

 

This is extremely my horsefeathers

[imb]

Chacon > Chatwood? Sure why not. Anderson > Lester? Umm who is anderson. Davies > Hendricks? Huh? Arrieta>Q? Um no. Archer>Darvish? I mean sure ok but archer is on another team so

[Aaron_Kennelly]

They should have added Randal Grichuk instead of Yelich.

[David]

Chacon > Chatwood? Sure why not. Anderson > Lester? Umm who is anderson. Davies > Hendricks? Huh? Arrieta>Q? Um no. Archer>Darvish? I mean sure ok but archer is on another team so

 

Anderson is some fringe starter dude who put up a 3+ win season last year at age 30. Who the hell knows what he is going forward. It wouldn't be all that crazy to see him have a better year than Lester, I guess. But yeah, lmao at the rest of that stuff.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Guys, you're getting off topic. Please move all Brewers talk to the also-rans thread.

 

This thread is for teams coasting to the NL Central title.

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

apparently this guy had it before rosenthal

[Cubswin11]

Guys, you're getting off topic. Please move all Brewers talk to the also-rans thread.

 

This thread is for teams coasting to the NL Central title.

I apologize and noted

[toonsterwu]

I'm surprised at the news of how lackluster his market seemed. Yeah, there are concerns about Darvish, but he was still a top pitcher. I'm just thoroughly surprised that, beyond the Brewers and Twins, it seemed iike (outside of the Heyman report) that few other teams even came close to the Cubs number, which was lower than anticipated.

 

It was a solid off-season, and barring some surprise, this should probably wrap up the major moves. Still a bit concerned about the pen, and I don't know about some components of the lineup, but it was as good an off-season as could be expected.

 

Wonder who gets opening day. Obviously not the biggest deal, but only person that seems unlikely is Chatwood.

 

Mildly curious how the rest of the couple weeks of offseason left goes. Do we get a flurry of signings/a trade or two ... or do things still crawl?

[toonsterwu]

Dunno who that High Heat guy is, but on the Brewers staff:

 

a) Yes, you can conceivably make an argument for almost all those things. Zach Davies could put it together and be a ... Hendricks-type of starter and show that level of consistency. Arrieta had his Cy Young year and you could conceivably buy that Arrieta might be able to find that form. Maybe. Chacin better than Chatwood? Okay, it's not like Chatwood's lit the world on fire. Maybe. I will say that I preferred Archer to Darvish, and I'm not going to let Darvish being a Cub now change that, but it's close and it's not like there's a huge age difference there. Thing is ...

 

b) But ... Quintana has shown more consistency, is younger, and isn't trending the wrong direction like Arrieta (I do not buy Arrieta being better than Quintana. I don't, and I don't love Quintana). Davies K rate regressed, and he hasn't shown Hendricks level of consistency or ceiling. Chacin had some Petco splits, IIRC. Anderson ... well call me when he gets anywhere near stringing together a few strong seasons, like Lester (to be fair, I'm worried about some more regression from Lester ... I think, on talent, he's probably our 4th starter entering the year). It's not inconceivable that the Brewers end up with a better rotation, based on the hypothetical rotation ... but it would almost certainly take a lot of balls bouncing in the right way for them, and a lot of balls falling the wrong way for the Cubs.

 

c) All that said, how are they going to end up with this mythical rotation? Do they think teams will just back off Arrieta and hand them to him? The bar's set fairly low now ... I have my doubts some other teams aren't jumping in on Arrieta. And ... how are they achieving this Archer trade, unless they part with say, Josh Hader? I've still got a hard time seeing the Brewers complete a huge deal unless Josh Hader was put in there. Now, it's possible they've made a decision that they don't think Hader will reach his ceiling as a starter, and opt to shop him, but I just can't see what? Woodruff? Burnes? Hiura? Ortiz? Any of those guys being good enough to be headlining a package for Archer. Heck ... 2 of them still likely seems slim on an Archer deal.

[Banedon]

Guys...the Brewers aren't the only ones that can rationalize.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/benjamin-hochman/hochman-cards-develop-starters-cubs-buy-them-a-look-at/article_d9127e81-512c-5333-a289-44da198e44d8.html

 

But the Cubs have to go pay for pitching because they can’t develop it consistently. They buy (or trade for) starters. The Cards develop arms. With their young starters — Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes and the aforementioned Flaherty — the Cards are banking on mitt-popping potential, high ceilings and cost-controlled arms, which could also give them flexibility when the free agent market has A-listers next winter. The Cubs are banking on past performances — and projections of future ones, albeit for guys born in the 1980s.

 

Yes, Darvish is good at pitching baseballs. The Cubs in 2018 are better Sunday than they were Friday. But it is also fair to point out that Yu — a Cub for the next six seasons — has an injury past. And since 2014, only once has he logged more than 150 innings. And his earned run average has grown annually. And that he’ll be 37 and still on this same hefty contract.

 

There is such a fine line between fans rooting with their hearts and rooting with the brains.

[Sammy Sofa]

A thing I've wondered in the past, would it be weird to go 6 man rotation most of the season? Or rotate Monty and Chatwood out of the 5th spot?

 

I really hope they do something along these lines to give Darvish and Lester as much extra time off between starts as they can.

[weis21]

A thing I've wondered in the past, would it be weird to go 6 man rotation most of the season? Or rotate Monty and Chatwood out of the 5th spot?

 

I really hope they do something along these lines to give Darvish and Lester as much extra time off between starts as they can.

yeah, agreed.

 

would it make sense to do a 6-man rotation every other time around the rotation?

[UMFan83]

Pitchers also making $21m next season:

 

Cueto

Bailey

Shields

[Tim]

A thing I've wondered in the past, would it be weird to go 6 man rotation most of the season? Or rotate Monty and Chatwood out of the 5th spot?

 

I really hope they do something along these lines to give Darvish and Lester as much extra time off between starts as they can.

yeah, agreed.

 

would it make sense to do a 6-man rotation every other time around the rotation?

Pitchers like to be on a set routine, though

[Sammy Sofa]

 

I really hope they do something along these lines to give Darvish and Lester as much extra time off between starts as they can.

yeah, agreed.

 

would it make sense to do a 6-man rotation every other time around the rotation?

Pitchers like to be on a set routine, though

 

If wishes and buts were candy and nuts. CHECKMATE.

[BigbadB]

An understated result of this offseason's moves is the SP depth being built up beyond this year. The 2019 team has:

 

Quintana

Darvish

Hendricks

Lester

Chatwood

Smyly

Montgomery

 

All under contract, plus Alzolay, Mills, Tseng, and an outside shot at at one of the college pitchers making the leap. Even considering the toll the '18 season will likely take, that's way better a starting point than this offseason. Combined with there being no current gaps or departures on the position player side, it really lines up for next offseason to be Harper and miscellany moves.

 

Might they also land a high quality arm with the compensation pick for Arrieta?

[ScrubMD]

 

https://twitter.com/High_Heat_19/status/962418681564356609

 

Lol at everything about that tweet.

 

And then imagine the Brewers also had Kershaw and Scherzer. Worried yet?

 

Now add Severino.

 

Nuff said.

[Derwood]

Guys...the Brewers aren't the only ones that can rationalize.

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/benjamin-hochman/hochman-cards-develop-starters-cubs-buy-them-a-look-at/article_d9127e81-512c-5333-a289-44da198e44d8.html

 

But the Cubs have to go pay for pitching because they can’t develop it consistently. They buy (or trade for) starters. The Cards develop arms. With their young starters — Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes and the aforementioned Flaherty — the Cards are banking on mitt-popping potential, high ceilings and cost-controlled arms, which could also give them flexibility when the free agent market has A-listers next winter. The Cubs are banking on past performances — and projections of future ones, albeit for guys born in the 1980s.

 

Yes, Darvish is good at pitching baseballs. The Cubs in 2018 are better Sunday than they were Friday. But it is also fair to point out that Yu — a Cub for the next six seasons — has an injury past. And since 2014, only once has he logged more than 150 innings. And his earned run average has grown annually. And that he’ll be 37 and still on this same hefty contract.

 

There is such a fine line between fans rooting with their hearts and rooting with the brains.

 

Sounds like an article that was written about the Mets pitching staff a few years ago. “Let’s put all our eggs in the young/homegrown pitchers basket and what could go wrong?”

[UMFan83]

Not that this is really an area where you want to be every single year but kind of crazy that the Cubs have signed MLB trade rumors #1 or #2 free agent in 3 of the last 4 offseasons

[Banedon]

Not that this is really an area where you want to be every single year but kind of crazy that the Cubs have signed MLB trade rumors #1 or #2 free agent in 3 of the last 4 offseasons

 

I definitely want them to be in that group again next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

An understated result of this offseason's moves is the SP depth being built up beyond this year. The 2019 team has:

 

Quintana

Darvish

Hendricks

Lester

Chatwood

Smyly

Montgomery

 

All under contract, plus Alzolay, Mills, Tseng, and an outside shot at at one of the college pitchers making the leap. Even considering the toll the '18 season will likely take, that's way better a starting point than this offseason. Combined with there being no current gaps or departures on the position player side, it really lines up for next offseason to be Harper and miscellany moves.

 

Might they also land a high quality arm with the compensation pick for Arrieta?

 

Maybe, but that guy isn't going to be a factor at the MLB level until 2021 in all likelihood.

[CubinNY]

Dunno who that High Heat guy is, but on the Brewers staff:

 

a) Yes, you can conceivably make an argument for almost all those things. Zach Davies could put it together and be a ... Hendricks-type of starter and show that level of consistency. Arrieta had his Cy Young year and you could conceivably buy that Arrieta might be able to find that form. Maybe. Chacin better than Chatwood? Okay, it's not like Chatwood's lit the world on fire. Maybe. I will say that I preferred Archer to Darvish, and I'm not going to let Darvish being a Cub now change that, but it's close and it's not like there's a huge age difference there. Thing is ...

 

b) But ... Quintana has shown more consistency, is younger, and isn't trending the wrong direction like Arrieta (I do not buy Arrieta being better than Quintana. I don't, and I don't love Quintana). Davies K rate regressed, and he hasn't shown Hendricks level of consistency or ceiling. Chacin had some Petco splits, IIRC. Anderson ... well call me when he gets anywhere near stringing together a few strong seasons, like Lester (to be fair, I'm worried about some more regression from Lester ... I think, on talent, he's probably our 4th starter entering the year). It's not inconceivable that the Brewers end up with a better rotation, based on the hypothetical rotation ... but it would almost certainly take a lot of balls bouncing in the right way for them, and a lot of balls falling the wrong way for the Cubs.

 

c) All that said, how are they going to end up with this mythical rotation? Do they think teams will just back off Arrieta and hand them to him? The bar's set fairly low now ... I have my doubts some other teams aren't jumping in on Arrieta. And ... how are they achieving this Archer trade, unless they part with say, Josh Hader? I've still got a hard time seeing the Brewers complete a huge deal unless Josh Hader was put in there. Now, it's possible they've made a decision that they don't think Hader will reach his ceiling as a starter, and opt to shop him, but I just can't see what? Woodruff? Burnes? Hiura? Ortiz? Any of those guys being good enough to be headlining a package for Archer. Heck ... 2 of them still likely seems slim on an Archer deal.

How about the fact that Jake and Chris don’t play for the Brewers? It’s like me saying me saying Kate Upton is an upgrade from my wife.