What's your wish list for the trade deadline?

[Thrilho]

Jon Niese is just Jon Niese. And our goal is to win games. And I'm not certain that Jon Niese is any better at that than Travis Wood or Edwin Jackson.

 

I think Niese's upside would be the 2-2.5 fWAR player he's been for the past four years. He's averaged 6 innings per start since 2010 and that hasn't dropped off this year. If he can give decent, predictable quality and eat some innings that could really stabilize the team. Plus, with a likely small cost in prospects and a short term contract that would allow the team to kick the can down the road on the fifth starter decision and keep their prospect powder dry.

 

Some numbers on Niese:

 

- In 2015 has career high GB:FB at 2.44. 54.8% GB 22.4% FB

- Career high FB/HR% at 16.4%

- 18.9% soft contact rate highest in 4 years. Hard contact rate at 31%, same as last 3 years.

- All pitch speeds are in line with recent career rates

- 4 seam FB usage way down. 21% relative to 28%, 31%, 36% the last 3 years

- Change up usage up to 13% from ~9%

- Usage of sinker, cutter, curve stable at 25%, 20%, 17%

- Slugging% much higher this year on changeup, curveball, cutter

- Slugging% stable on 4 seam FB

 

It looks to me like he's a good regression candidate. Getting lots of groundballs, has moved away from his fastball, and is getting killed on the breaking stuff. If the Boz thinks he can fix him, I'd be all for getting a guy like him and not giving up much in prospects or years.

[Thrilho]

Also, the K% and BB% are fairly stable. 15.5% K is down from his last few years of 17.6%, 16.9,%, 19.7% and his BB% of 7.2% is toward the higher end of the range the last few years. But they seem within fixable ranges.

[Tryptamine]

He's injured far too often to make up for the fact that he's a decent pitcher.

[Cubswin11]

Sonny Gray just was scratched from his start tonight, maybe a trade in the works? Or maybe just screw pitchers another one is hurt.

[Tyrant]

Sonny Gray just was scratched from his start tonight, maybe a trade in the works? Or maybe just screw pitchers another one is hurt.

 

virus.

[Thrilho]

Not sure where to put this, but it seems like Maddon just confirmed that Schwarber will be playing some outfield in this video. Also, not sure how forthcoming he's being here, but taken at face value it doesn't sound like they're looking to add a significant bat.

 

Maddon starts answering a question about the Cubs needs at the trade deadline at 5:15. He starts by saying the bullpen looks solid, and we've got Ramirez and Soriano coming. Then says we're always looking to upgrade the 5th starter spot, then this about the offense:

 

“The bats are going to get better because Soler is coming back relatively soon, so the offense should have an uptick right there. We have Schwarbs in the minor leagues, who is going to catch and maybe play a little outfield there, so hopefully that will augment the offense at some point too. But then beyond that just the guys who are here…”

 

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:13190517

[Guest]

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/chicago-cubs-trade-deadline-approach-pitching-depth-starlin-castro-deal-070515

 

Some information and observations on the Cubs, after spending a couple of days at Wrigley Field:

- Thus far, the Cubs’ trade conversations have been focused more on starting pitchers than position players. Their lack of rotation depth became particularly apparent over the weekend: They acquired Clayton Richard from the Pirates for cash considerations on Friday, and he was their starting pitcher on Saturday. (In fairness, the move worked out quite well: Richard allowed two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the Marlins in his first major-league start in more than two years.)

- The Cubs would prefer to trade for a starting pitcher whom they would control beyond this year, because they lack major-league-ready starters in the upper levels of their system. If they’re going to play on a big name, Cole Hamels (signed to a long-term contract) makes more sense than Johnny Cueto (pending free agent).

The Cubs hope to acquire a frontline starting pitcher between now and Opening Day 2016, anyway. Trading for Hamels would enable Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer & Co. to check off a major item from their offseason shopping list. With a two-month rental, they would need to start from scratch in the intense bidding for free agent David Price (whom they are known to covet).

 

- Although the return of Jorge Soler from the disabled list on Sunday should minimize the Cubs’ immediate need to acquire offense, they would like to add a left-handed outfield bat if the acquisition cost is reasonable. Switch-hitting center fielder Dexter Fowler is having the worst offensive season of his major-league career, and his struggles have been most pronounced from the left side.

Two names to watch: Milwaukee’s Gerardo Parra, a two-time Gold Glove winner, and San Diego’s Will Venable, who played for Hoyer during his tenure as general manager of the Padres. Both Parra and Venable are considered excellent clubhouse citizens — a theme of recent Cubs’ acquisitions.

- The Cubs would be a better all-around team if they traded Starlin Castro and added a veteran shortstop or second baseman to pair with rookie infielder Addison Russell. The issue is whether any team is interested in Castro — at least, for the full amount left on his contract (four years and more than $40 million after this year).

Metrics rate Castro as a below-average defender at shortstop, and he’s followed up an All-Star appearance in 2014 with a .629 OPS this year.

The Cubs are enjoying their best first half since 2008, the last time they reached the playoffs. They have developed a palpable charisma, cultivated by baseball’s merry philosopher, Joe Maddon. The renovated, reinvigorated Wrigley Field is drawing sellout crowds once more. If those circumstances do not bring out the best in Castro, it’s fair to ask serious questions about his future.

 

FWIW, I have heard other chatter in the local media lately (was being presented more as sourced rumor rather than the usual speculation) that the Cubs might be looking actively to trade Castro

 

The part in bold really makes me sad

[Guest]

I can't believe they're actively looking to trade Castro because that would require Baez's recovery going basically 100% perfectly(which has happened like 0 times out of 10 with injuries this year), plus they have to believe he won't humiliate himself when healthy. They could conceivably bring up Alcantara, but he hasn't sniffed a callup despite multiple chances when he could have made sense.

 

And all that ignores Castro and his value, which is a whole other conversation.

[Cubswin11]

Also who are all these "veteran SS/2B" that are even available that would be a clear upgrade to Castro?

[Guest]

Also who are all these "veteran SS/2B" that are even available that would be a clear upgrade to Castro?

 

Starlin Castro in 2015 is a below replacement level player and the Starlin Castro of the past 3 seasons isn't a player who would be hard to replace, sad as it is to say.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/chicago-cubs-trade-deadline-approach-pitching-depth-starlin-castro-deal-070515

 

They have developed a palpable charisma, cultivated by baseball’s merry philosopher, Joe Maddon. The renovated, reinvigorated Wrigley Field is drawing sellout crowds once more. If those circumstances do not bring out the best in Castro, it’s fair to ask serious questions about his future.

 

FWIW, I have heard other chatter in the local media lately (was being presented more as sourced rumor rather than the usual speculation) that the Cubs might be looking actively to trade Castro

 

The part in bold really makes me sad

 

The part I left might be one of the most terrible things ever written.

[davell]

I think Theo very recently said(within the last week)speculation on Starlin just needs to stop, he's not going anywhere.

 

Offseason? That's when I see them looking harder at moving him. I still don't even have a feel for which of him or Javy they'd prefer to trade. But I'd guess they'd lean towards gaining the payroll flexibility and whatever return that comes with it and move Starlin.

 

If we're looking for a lefty bat, are we looking to make Fowler part of a platoon?

[Guest]

If we're looking for a lefty bat, are we looking to make Fowler part of a platoon?

 

isn't that what was directly implied?

[davell]

If we're looking for a lefty bat, are we looking to make Fowler part of a platoon?

 

isn't that what was directly implied?

 

Yeah, it is. But I'd rather get a guy like Zobrist and use him all over(put KB in CF some) than find a strict platoon for Fowler, who I think will eventually get up to his career norms....

[SouthSideRyan]

I didn't see anything about this posted, but may have missed it with the weekend:

 

Epstein: Cubs won't necessarily be buyers

 

Epstein said Friday that "demand far outweighs supply" in the current market and everyone has to "recognize the trade deadline is not a panacea" for solving a team's problems.

 

"If you look at the history of teams that go on and play in the World Series, very rarely is it (because of a) deadline deal," he said, adding: "We know what we'd like to do, but we're realistic about what we might be able to do."

 

"But for teams that are more clearly in wild-card contention than division contention, it adds an element of caution, too," he said. "There's sort of a natural inclination not to go too hog wild on the short-term rental stuff, because you may be only looking at one game.

 

"You don't let that dominate your thoughts, but it's in the back of your mind for most clubs that are clear wild-card contenders but not division contenders. And I'm not saying we're in that boat, just speaking generally."

 

Hoping this is just a smokescreen, and not prospect hoarding.

[Guest]

To an extent, he's right even if it's not a smokescreen (which I think it mostly is). If, as it stands, we're 75% for at least a wild card, how much do we really stand to gain?

 

We need to get back to within realistic range of the cardinals this week.

 

Ok, we don't need to, but it would be reallllly nice to.

[SouthSideRyan]

To an extent, he's right even if it's not a smokescreen (which I think it mostly is). If, as it stands, we're 75% for at least a wild card, how much do we really stand to gain?

 

 

Quite a bit? This new BN-esque narrative that has sprung up regarding well, it's just a 1 game playoff so there's no real sense in making tangible improvements is infuriating.

 

ETA: Playoff odds are far from an exact science at this point of the year. The Cubs went up 10.3% in the last 7 days. The Giants fell off 16.5%

Edited July 6, 2015 by SouthSideRyan

[Guest]

To an extent, he's right even if it's not a smokescreen (which I think it mostly is). If, as it stands, we're 75% for at least a wild card, how much do we really stand to gain?

 

 

Quite a bit? This new BN-esque narrative that has sprung up regarding well, it's just a 1 game playoff so there's no real sense in making tangible improvements is infuriating.

 

It's not that it's just a one game playoff. And I haven't seen any narrative but I don't read bn much anymore. It's that we might be like 85% for one or something at the trade deadline with little hope of a division title

[Cubswin11]

Also who are all these "veteran SS/2B" that are even available that would be a clear upgrade to Castro?

 

Starlin Castro in 2015 is a below replacement level player and the Starlin Castro of the past 3 seasons isn't a player who would be hard to replace, sad as it is to say.

Well aware of his lack of production, but even at that who is really available that would be a clear upgrade?

[SouthSideRyan]

To an extent, he's right even if it's not a smokescreen (which I think it mostly is). If, as it stands, we're 75% for at least a wild card, how much do we really stand to gain?

 

 

Quite a bit? This new BN-esque narrative that has sprung up regarding well, it's just a 1 game playoff so there's no real sense in making tangible improvements is infuriating.

 

It's not that it's just a one game playoff. And I haven't seen any narrative but I don't read bn much anymore. It's that we might be like 85% for one or something at the trade deadline with little hope of a division title

 

Check the edit. And just because playoffs are close to a crapshoot, it doesn't mean it's worthless to try to push it from 50-50 to 55-45.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The difference in WS odds when making the wild-card game vs. out entirely is substantial.

 

They don't need to be making huge deals, but if you can't find it in you to trade some third-tier prospects for a small bump in the odds of getting there, then you shouldn't have signed Lester or called up Russell or committed any resources at all.

 

A reliever, a position player who can platoon with anyone except Rizzo or Bryant. That'd be plenty.

 

But I am pretty confident this is just smokescreening. We will be buyers in some capacity.

[Guest]

Yeah I mean I really want kazmir and if there's some platoon bat we can add, that'd be cool too. I'd still be cool adding papelbon, despite the dominance of late

[Andy]

Theo is saying he's not going to overpay, and if we can't make a serious run at the division, I'm fine with that. That said, he'll find a trade.

[Sammy Sofa]

Theo is saying he's not going to overpay, and if we can't make a serious run at the division, I'm fine with that.

 

Whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

 

They don't need to win the division to win the freakin' WS.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Theo is saying he's not going to overpay, and if we can't make a serious run at the division, I'm fine with that.

 

Whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

 

They don't need to win the division to win the freakin' WS.

 

Would you rather her say '[expletive] it, let's splurge. Schwarber and Edwards for the earthly remains of Ichiro!' 'Is Chase Utley still alive? He is? You want Rubi Silva and Brian Schlitter? Well that just won't do. You'll take Pierce Johnson and I won't hear any more of it!'

 

But seriously, it's pretty much what every businessman says when he plans to acquire anything. And really, it depends on what he means by "overpay;" another intentional generalization often used by businessmen.