The Cubs’ Playoff Picture Is Starting to Come Into Focus

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We have officially reached September, which means postseason baseball is just around the corner. Despite a bit of a cold stretch recently, the Cubs still have firm control of their own destiny heading into the final few weeks of the regular season. With a record of 78-61, they’re right in the thick of the National League Wild Card race, and they’ve put themselves in a pretty good position to make a run in October. But while Chicago is set up well right now, a lot can change over the course of an entire month. So, where does the National League playoff picture stand at this very moment?

For starters, it feels like the three division leaders have a pretty strong hold on their respective demesnes. The Braves have a three-game lead in the NL East; the Brewers lead the Cubs by eight games in the NL Central; and the Dodgers have a 9.5-game advantage over the Padres in the NL West.

As I said, a lot can happen over this last month of the regular season. But the Brewers and Dodgers have comfortable leads, while Atlanta is playing some great baseball. The Phillies might have something to say about it, but the odds are pretty good that those will be your three division winners when it’s all said and done. That means the Wild Card is where things get really interesting.

The Cubs are currently a game behind Philadelphia for the No. 4 seed in the National League, which would set up a Wild Card matchup between the two teams if the playoffs started today. With both Chicago and Philadelphia sitting a handful of games ahead of the current No. 6 seed, the strong odds are that the two teams will square off, one way or another.

On paper, that’s a pretty daunting matchup. The Cubs have actually had plenty of success against Philadelphia this season, going 6-1. But that was a struggling team with a since-fired manager, who hadn't yet gotten Zack Wheeler back. This is a team with a star-studded core that can give any opponent problems in October. The Phillies have bats like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the lineup, while their rotation features Cristopher Sánchez, Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo. And they’re starting to heat up at the right time.

The Phillies are currently riding a six-game winning streak, which has helped them leapfrog the Cubs in the standings. They have the talent and postseason experience to make things very difficult, especially if the series takes place at Citizens Bank Park.

After Philadelphia, there are a few other teams fighting for the opportunity to play October baseball. The Padres currently hold the final Wild Card spot, while both the Diamondbacks and Marlins are within three games. That means there’s still plenty of time for the Wild Card picture to shift, with multiple teams still within striking distance of that final spot.

The good news for Chicago is that it has had quite a bit of success against those teams this season. They went 5-1 against the Padres and 4-2 against the Diamondbacks, while they haven’t played the Marlins yet. That will change this weekend, when Chicago finally gets its first look at Miami. It would require a full-fledged Cubs collapse (and a strong finish) for any of those three teams to catch Chicago, so any matchup they might have against them would be at Wrigley Field. Even the Phillies will have to come to Chicago if the two teams finish with the same record, which is crucial.

During the Cubs’ 2025 postseason run, they went a collective 4-4. Their four wins all came at home; they lost just once at Wrigley. In three games in Milwaukee, though, they went 0-3. Obviously, that doesn’t mean the Cubs can’t win away from Wrigley Field, but it does go to show just how important home-field advantage can be once the postseason begins.

We’re about to enter the most meaningful baseball of the season, and the Cubs are no exception. Every series, every game, and eventually every inning will carry a little more weight as the calendar moves deeper into September. If I had to make a bet today on how things will end up, I’d say the Cubs face off against the Phillies in the Wild Card round, with Chicago getting the fourth seed and Philadelphia getting the fifth. I’ll also say the Padres sneak into that final Wild Card spot, leaving the Diamondbacks just on the outside looking in. But that prediction could look completely different a week from now.

A strong week can dramatically improve Chicago’s position, while a bad week can just as quickly put the Cubs in a much more precarious spot. The standings will change constantly over these final few weeks, and with so many teams still fighting for the same handful of postseason spots, there’s little room for complacency. With September officially here, they can’t let that position slip away.