The Jon Lester Signs w/ Cubs - 6 yrs/$155 Million

[Felix Leiter]

I'm thinking the Giants will be talking w/Lester before it's all done.

[Gmoney08]

That can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well..

 

Not with the same degree of probability.

 

I'd guess similar though. I dont know the stats but id guess you see more TJS surgeries from the under 30 group as well. There is an abundance of of pitchers blowing up in every age group.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658

 

Seems to me you made my exact point for me.

 

I said similar probability between both age brackets. Between ages 25 to 36 the attrition rate fluctuates back and forth in a narrow threshold between 12 to 17%. It also doesn't increase uniformly up, in fact the attrition rate of 25 year old pitchers is higher than 31 & 32 year olds.

 

It's pretty fair to say there is pretty similar risk of blowing up for any pitching age bracket in baseball which my first point "that can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well" implied.

 

Also, my assumption that there is at times even more risk for young pitchers seems to be supported as well. Pitchers 22 and under have over a 20% attrition rate, attrition for the old guys doesn't hit 20% until age 39.

[SouthSideRyan]

That can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well..

 

Not with the same degree of probability.

 

I'd guess similar though. I dont know the stats but id guess you see more TJS surgeries from the under 30 group as well. There is an abundance of of pitchers blowing up in every age group.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658

 

I'm not sure an 11 year old study is a great help.

[UMFan83]

Pete Abraham

@PeteAbe

Source: #RedSox still very much engaged with @JLester31, process ongoing. Recent signings do not preclude his return.

[apete6]

Pete Abraham

@PeteAbe

Source: #RedSox still very much engaged with @JLester31, process ongoing. Recent signings do not preclude his return.

 

[expletive] you, Red Sox. You have your 3 titles, just collect the money like the Yankees are choosing to do. Let us have something you bastards!

[doschi]

The 14-year-old kid who first broke the Sandoval and Hanley signings is now saying that Lester is close to signing with Boston. God, I hope he's wrong.

 

Jake Wesley MLB

‏@mlb_nl_al

This is going against what I said yesterday about lester. But he's close with Red Sox around 120-140 million...

 

 

Backstory on the kid:

 

http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/11/24/jake-wesley-mlb-twitter-account-broke-red-sox-signings-of-hanley-ramirez-pablo-sandoval/

[bukie]

Projected Red Sox starting rotation, current:

 

Clay Buchholz

Joe Kelly

Rubby De La Rosa

Allen Webster

Brandon Workman

[UMFan83]

The 14-year-old kid who first broke the Sandoval and Hanley signings is now saying that Lester is close to signing with Boston. God, I hope he's wrong.

 

Jake Wesley MLB

‏@mlb_nl_al

This is going against what I said yesterday about lester. But he's close with Red Sox around 120-140 million...

 

 

Backstory on the kid:

 

http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/11/24/jake-wesley-mlb-twitter-account-broke-red-sox-signings-of-hanley-ramirez-pablo-sandoval/

 

Sounds like all the momentum is heading their way. Like bukie pointed out, their rotation is bad, they wouldn't have signed Hanley and Sandoval without knowing they had enough left for a top of the line starter.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh my God, let's talk about Pearl Jam again. That's somehow less depressing than how this is trending.

[Rob]

Oh my God, let's talk about Pearl Jam again. That's somehow less depressing than how this is trending.

 

Not Pearl Jam, but this Nirvana mashup is pretty fantastic.

[nolanwood]

How could we not top that offer?

[ConstableRabbit]

Pete Abraham

@PeteAbe

Source: #RedSox still very much engaged with @JLester31, process ongoing. Recent signings do not preclude his return.

 

[expletive] you, Red Sox. You have your 3 titles, just collect the money like the Yankees are choosing to do. Let us have something you bastards!

Or we could, you know, outbid someone.

[WrigleyField 22]

Man this 70 M payroll is gonna suck.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sammy Sofa]

How could we not top that offer?

 

PTR is banking on luring guys in with his songs about the Big Rock Candy Mountain.

 

PROVE ME WRONG, YOU TED CRUZ-LOOKING SCHMUCK. Prove me wrong...

[UMFan83]

Man this 70 M payroll is gonna suck.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Is that what our payroll would be if all we signed is 1-2 middle tier arms like Masterson and maybe a backup catcher?

[Guest]

Man this 70 M payroll is gonna suck.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Is that what our payroll would be if all we signed is 1-2 middle tier arms like Masterson and maybe a backup catcher?

 

Right now we can put together a 25 man roster with about 66 million. Make it closer to 60 if you decide to non-tender Wood. So that's your baseline to add any spending to.

[SouthSideRyan]

Man this 70 M payroll is gonna suck.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Is that what our payroll would be if all we signed is 1-2 middle tier arms like Masterson and maybe a backup catcher?

 

Right now we can put together a 25 man roster with about 66 million. Make it closer to 60 if you decide to non-tender Wood. So that's your baseline to add any spending to.

 

It doesn't matter what the baseline is.

[Tryptamine]

Man this 70 M payroll is gonna suck.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Is that what our payroll would be if all we signed is 1-2 middle tier arms like Masterson and maybe a backup catcher?

 

Right now we can put together a 25 man roster with about 66 million. Make it closer to 60 if you decide to non-tender Wood. So that's your baseline to add any spending to.

 

Excellent, that means we can sign about 15M in players and still be competing with TB,FLA and PITT for the second lowest payroll in baseball. Fantastic.

[Sammy Sofa]

They are rich in falsehoods.

[UMFan83]

Maybe Theo is feigning interest in Lester so he can silently swoop in and sign his preferred target, Max Scherzer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe Theo is feigning interest in Lester so he can silently swoop in and sign his preferred target, Max Scherzer.

 

It's just a little airborne. It's still good, it's still good.

[Cubswin11]

Maybe Theo is feigning interest in Lester so he can silently swoop in and sign his preferred target, Max Scherzer.

Maybe it's just that there's been few things about Scherzer/Cubs that I haven't seen anything, but it seems like there isn't a whole lot out there linking Scherzer to anyone or talking about what his contract might be.

[Agony and Ivy]

Maybe Theo is feigning interest in Lester so he can silently swoop in and sign his preferred target, Max Scherzer.

 

It's just a little airborne. It's still good, it's still good.

 

I think I will take that job in Austin now. No need to stick around for the false hope. I can do that from Austin where it's warmer and I am less engaged.

[Agony and Ivy]

The 14-year-old kid who first broke the Sandoval and Hanley signings is now saying that Lester is close to signing with Boston. God, I hope he's wrong.

 

Jake Wesley MLB

‏@mlb_nl_al

This is going against what I said yesterday about lester. But he's close with Red Sox around 120-140 million...

 

 

Backstory on the kid:

 

http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/11/24/jake-wesley-mlb-twitter-account-broke-red-sox-signings-of-hanley-ramirez-pablo-sandoval/

 

 

The 13 year old is disputing this claim.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm torn on whether these kids are making stuff up and getting lucky or if they hacked someone's e-mail.