The Jon Lester Signs w/ Cubs - 6 yrs/$155 Million

[Guest]

fwiw, here's the list of starters: age 35-37 this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=35,37&filter=&players=0

 

Lester has 35.4 fWAR through age 30.

 

Buehrle at 36.6 and Lackey at 29 are the only ones remotely close to him. (Cliff Lee only had 23 through his age 30 season.)

 

I'm not sure but I thought that link was supposed to be encouraging. Certainly didn't cause me to worry.

Can you explain how that can be encouraging whatsoever?

[Guest]

fwiw, here's the list of starters: age 35-37 this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=35,37&filter=&players=0

 

Lester has 35.4 fWAR through age 30.

 

Buehrle at 36.6 and Lackey at 29 are the only ones remotely close to him. (Cliff Lee only had 23 through his age 30 season.)

 

I'm not sure but I thought that link was supposed to be encouraging. Certainly didn't cause me to worry.

Can you explain how that can be encouraging whatsoever?

 

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever even close to Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

[Guest]

fwiw, here's the list of starters: age 35-37 this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=35,37&filter=&players=0

 

Lester has 35.4 fWAR through age 30.

 

Buehrle at 36.6 and Lackey at 29 are the only ones remotely close to him. (Cliff Lee only had 23 through his age 30 season.)

 

I'm not sure but I thought that link was supposed to be encouraging. Certainly didn't cause me to worry.

Can you explain how that can be encouraging whatsoever?

 

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

[SouthSideRyan]

fwiw, here's the list of starters: age 35-37 this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=35,37&filter=&players=0

 

Lester has 35.4 fWAR through age 30.

 

Buehrle at 36.6 and Lackey at 29 are the only ones remotely close to him. (Cliff Lee only had 23 through his age 30 season.)

 

I'm not sure but I thought that link was supposed to be encouraging. Certainly didn't cause me to worry.

Can you explain how that can be encouraging whatsoever?

 

Because even when including total turds like Ryan Vogelsong and Chris Capuano, those pitchers averaged 1.5 WAR?

 

And if you expand it to 35+(Adds in Kuroda, Dickey, Colon, and Hudson), the average jumps to 1.7

 

Neither of those numbers could be considered near useless.

[Guest]

fwiw, here's the list of starters: age 35-37 this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=35,37&filter=&players=0

 

Lester has 35.4 fWAR through age 30.

 

Buehrle at 36.6 and Lackey at 29 are the only ones remotely close to him. (Cliff Lee only had 23 through his age 30 season.)

 

I'm not sure but I thought that link was supposed to be encouraging. Certainly didn't cause me to worry.

Can you explain how that can be encouraging whatsoever?

 

Because even when including total turds like Ryan Vogelsong and Chris Capuano, those pitchers averaged 1.5 WAR?

 

And if you expand it to 35+(Adds in Kuroda, Dickey, Colon, and Hudson), the average jumps to 1.7

 

Neither of those numbers could be considered near useless.

Yes, they are - you can get guys like that off the street for cheap.

[Guest]

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

 

They probably aren't on Lester's level if they weren't employed at that age.

 

I understand what you're saying, but that list doesn't cause me worry, which is what I said (along with snarky remark about it being closer to being encouraging if anything).

[Guest]

Yes, they are - you can get guys like that off the street for cheap.

 

Did those guys pitch like TOR for you 4-7 years earlier?

[SouthSideRyan]

Because even when including total turds like Ryan Vogelsong and Chris Capuano, those pitchers averaged 1.5 WAR?

 

And if you expand it to 35+(Adds in Kuroda, Dickey, Colon, and Hudson), the average jumps to 1.7

 

Neither of those numbers could be considered near useless.

Yes, they are - you can get guys like that off the street for cheap.

 

lol ok

[Cubswin11]

Yes, they are - you can get guys like that off the street for cheap.

 

Did those guys pitch like TOR for you 4-7 years earlier?

You forget, we are trying to build the most efficient team. Can't be over spending for production in the last 2-3 years of deal, even if it means getting TOR production in the first 4-5

[SouthSideRyan]

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

'98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0

[Guest]

2009-2011 pitchers who had at least 3 fWAR at age 30 and 30 career fWAR thru age 30:

 

Sabathia

Haren

Buehrle

Johan

 

Just missing were Lackey(just under 30 fWAR) and Peavy(just under 3 fWAR at 30).

[Guest]

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

 

They probably aren't on Lester's level if they weren't employed at that age.

 

I understand what you're saying, but that list doesn't cause me worry, which is what I said (along with snarky remark about it being closer to being encouraging if anything).

Rewind that list 4 years to be 31-33 year olds in 2010.

 

Halladay (57 career WAR at the end of 2010)

Oswalt (46)

Lackey (31)

Santana (46)

Dempster (23)

Zito (31)

Sheets (30)

Burnett (28)

Vazquez (50)

 

How did those guys do this year?

[Guest]

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

'98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0

Yes, he's been a very good pitcher through age 30. We're attempting to figure out how good he'll be through age 37.

 

--- eta

 

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

[SouthSideRyan]

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

'98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0

Yes, he's been a very good pitcher through age 30. We're attempting to figure out how good he'll be through age 37.

 

And I'm giving you a list of comparables to check out. I'm not going to do everything for you Tim.

[Guest]

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

'98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0

Yes, he's been a very good pitcher through age 30. We're attempting to figure out how good he'll be through age 37.

 

And I'm giving you a list of comparables to check out. I'm not going to do everything for you Tim.

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

[Guest]

If you add that whole list of 12 pitchers together once for ages 35+, you probably total less than 10 WAR for the remainder of the careers.

 

Most of it being Buerhle.

[SouthSideRyan]

If it's simply a pitchers get injured too much, why should the age of the pitcher matter at all?

[Guest]

If it's simply a pitchers get injured too much, why should the age of the pitcher matter at all?

Because attrition is really, really, really hard on guys who have thrown enough to accumulate that much value by age 30?

[Sammy Sofa]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

[Tyrant]

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

 

So based on this, Lester's arm might die in 4 years. I'm fine with that.

[SouthSideRyan]

If it's simply a pitchers get injured too much, why should the age of the pitcher matter at all?

Because attrition is really, really, really hard on guys who have thrown enough to accumulate that much value by age 30?

 

As it is on those who haven't.

[Guest]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

I've had him as my #1 priority all offseason.

 

But I'm fully aware of the risks and odds of getting 6-7 good years from him.

[Guest]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

I've had him as my #1 priority all offseason.

 

But I'm fully aware of the risks and odds of getting 6-7 good years from him.

 

Nobody is asking for or expecting 6-7 good years.

[Guest]

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

 

So based on this, Lester's arm might die in 4 years. I'm fine with that.

Based on this, his arm might die after 1 year and is highly likely to die after 3-4 years.

[RynoRules]

Why not front load a contract then? If you back-load it you have zero chance of trading him during the last three years when his value starts to plummet.