The Jon Lester Signs w/ Cubs - 6 yrs/$155 Million

[Warren Brusstar]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

 

Sometimes I think Tim would rather win the WAR/$ "title" than the World Series itself.

[Guest]

Why not front load a contract then? If you back-load it you have zero chance of trading him during the last three years when his value starts to plummet.

 

Why not keep that money and give it to another team at the end if you need to to trade him?

[Guest]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

 

Sometimes I think Tim would rather win the WAR/$ "title" than the World Series itself.

Are you sure you're thinking of the right Tim?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

'98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0

Yes, he's been a very good pitcher through age 30. We're attempting to figure out how good he'll be through age 37.

 

--- eta

 

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

 

 

Yeah. I want to not get nothing, but I really wouldn't mind if we just traded for a 28-year-old pitcher instead.

[SouthSideRyan]

Why not front load a contract then? If you back-load it you have zero chance of trading him during the last three years when his value starts to plummet.

 

Because TVM. If you can only trade him as a 10M/Y player, then eat that money on the backend and trade him away.

[Warren Brusstar]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

 

Sometimes I think Tim would rather win the WAR/$ "title" than the World Series itself.

Are you sure you're thinking of the right Tim?

 

Unless there's some other Tim who lamented the foolishness of Felix Hernandez's contract....

[SouthSideRyan]

The fact that the only pitchers on that list who were ever on Lester's level are still reasonably productive at the age where he'd be on the very back end of the contract is definitely not causing me concern, if that was the objective.

Survivor bias.

 

Now go back and look at the list of pitchers that dropped out and simply aren't pitching anymore at that age.

 

'98-Present fWAR leaders through age 30:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1998&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=17,30&filter=&players=0

Yes, he's been a very good pitcher through age 30. We're attempting to figure out how good he'll be through age 37.

 

--- eta

 

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

 

 

Yeah. I want to not get nothing, but I really wouldn't mind if we just traded for a 28-year-old pitcher instead.

 

The good thing about 28 year old pitchers is their arms never explode. If you're going to spend money on pitching, the injury risk is going to be there. Unless you want to go with the faith in Bosio plan and spend all the money on hitting.

Edited November 24, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The good thing about 28 year old pitchers is their arms never explode.

 

Fine, screw it.

 

Let's trade a bunch of stuff for two or three awesome position players and just score 1000 runs next year.

[Guest]

If a 28 year old's arm explodes, you still have time to capture some value before age comes for them too. If a 31 year old's arm explodes you don't really have that luxury.

[Guest]

If a 28 year old's arm explodes, you still have time to capture some value before age comes for them too. If a 31 year old's arm explodes you don't really have that luxury.

 

Do 28 year olds really recover that much better than 31 year olds from TJS?

 

Seems like the outcome is pretty similar either way.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Screw it, let's trade for a 25-year-old pitcher?

[Guest]

If a 28 year old's arm explodes, you still have time to capture some value before age comes for them too. If a 31 year old's arm explodes you don't really have that luxury.

 

Do 28 year olds really recover that much better than 31 year olds from TJS?

 

Seems like the outcome is pretty similar either way.

 

Here's a very oversimplified example: 4 win SP under control for 4 years.

 

28 year old

28: TJS (woulda been 4 WAR)

29: 3 WAR (woulda been 4 WAR without rehab)

30: 4 WAR

31: 3.5 WAR

Total: 10.5 WAR for 3 years, 2 years > 3 WAR

 

31 year old

31: TJS (woulda been 4 WAR)

32 2.5 WAR (woulda been 3.5 WAR without rehab)

33: 3 WAR

34: 2.5 WAR

Total: 8 WAR for 3 years, never get > 3 WAR production

 

Injury sucks, Age + Injury is downside that eliminates upside.

[Guest]

Screw it, let's trade for a 25-year-old pitcher?

Sign Maeda.

[SouthSideRyan]

If a 28 year old's arm explodes, you still have time to capture some value before age comes for them too. If a 31 year old's arm explodes you don't really have that luxury.

 

Do 28 year olds really recover that much better than 31 year olds from TJS?

 

Seems like the outcome is pretty similar either way.

 

Here's a very oversimplified example: 4 win SP under control for 4 years.

 

28 year old

28: TJS (woulda been 4 WAR)

29: 3 WAR (woulda been 4 WAR without rehab)

30: 4 WAR

31: 3.5 WAR

Total: 10.5 WAR for 3 years, 2 years > 3 WAR

 

31 year old

31: TJS (woulda been 4 WAR)

32 2.5 WAR (woulda been 3.5 WAR without rehab)

33: 3 WAR

34: 2.5 WAR

Total: 8 WAR for 3 years, never get > 3 WAR production

 

Injury sucks, Age + Injury is downside that eliminates upside.

 

Isn't projected decline heavily influenced by the possibility of 0 WAR seasons due to arm exploding?

[Sammy Sofa]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

I've had him as my #1 priority all offseason.

 

But I'm fully aware of the risks and odds of getting 6-7 good years from him.

 

Who is banking on getting 6-7 good years out of him? I figured it was assumed by all that the Cubs would be eating cash at the end.

[Guest]

Isn't projected decline heavily influenced by the possibility of 0 WAR seasons due to arm exploding?

Not the way Fangraphs calculates it.

[Guest]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

I've had him as my #1 priority all offseason.

 

But I'm fully aware of the risks and odds of getting 6-7 good years from him.

 

Who is banking on getting 6-7 good years out of him? I figured it was assumed by all that the Cubs would be eating cash at the end.

To you and David: Let me amend my statement...

 

But I'm fully aware of the risks and odds of getting 4+ good years from him.

[Guest]

Does Tim not want to sign Lester?

 

Sometimes I think Tim would rather win the WAR/$ "title" than the World Series itself.

Are you sure you're thinking of the right Tim?

 

Unless there's some other Tim who lamented the foolishness of Felix Hernandez's contract....

okay...

 

Did you miss where I wanted to sign Lester, Martin, McCarthy and Tomas as my perfect offseason?

[Guest]

Isn't projected decline heavily influenced by the possibility of 0 WAR seasons due to arm exploding?

 

Well having TJS at 31 certainly doesn't lower the odds of losing more future time to injury. You have to use averages with projections like that, but it's not double counting.

[Gmoney08]

Holy crap, that list makes me think f pitchers over 30

 

Sabathia - arm dying if not dead

Felix - hasn't passed 30

Verlander - arm dying

Pedro - arm died @ 34 - 35

Greinke - ok so far, but still young

Santana - arm died at 31

Vazquez - arm died at 34

Oswalt - arm died at 34

Halladay - arm died at 34

Buerhle - ok

Kershaw - uh, yeah, still only 26!

Haren - arm died at 31

 

Yeah, that list is not a compelling argument to sign Lester.

 

So based on this, Lester's arm might die in 4 years. I'm fine with that.

Based on this, his arm might die after 1 year and is highly likely to die after 3-4 years.

 

That can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well..

[WrigleyField 22]

Why not front load a contract then? If you back-load it you have zero chance of trading him during the last three years when his value starts to plummet.

 

Because TVM. If you can only trade him as a 10M/Y player, then eat that money on the backend and trade him away.

Front loading is mostly valuable in situations where a teams budget is year to year only. If you roll over budgets, which we apparently do, it doesn't usually matter, but it would all depend on the specifics of the structure, whether backloading or front loading. If you have a funky structure that's based on poor assumptions of return... It's bad either way.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well..

 

Not with the same degree of probability.

[Guest]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 13m13 minutes ago

The Phillies are confident that if Red Sox don't get Jon Lester, Boston's desire for an ace will make a Cole Hamels trade very likely.

[Gmoney08]

That can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well..

 

Not with the same degree of probability.

 

I'd guess similar though. I dont know the stats but id guess you see more TJS surgeries from the under 30 group as well. There is an abundance of of pitchers blowing up in every age group.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That can be said about every pitcher in baseball under 30 as well..

 

Not with the same degree of probability.

 

I'd guess similar though. I dont know the stats but id guess you see more TJS surgeries from the under 30 group as well. There is an abundance of of pitchers blowing up in every age group.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658