The Jon Lester Signs w/ Cubs - 6 yrs/$155 Million

[KingCubsFan]

Hopefully this ends better than the Brian Roberts thread and Jake Peavy thread.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Like Anthony Rizzo, I like it when our front office's need to accumulate and reward their buddies from past jobs happens to coincide with things that help us be better at baseball.

[Banedon]

I'm going to find it very difficult to get excited about FA pitcher signings. I know it needs to happen, obviously...but ugh...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm going to find it very difficult to get excited about FA pitcher signings. I know it needs to happen, obviously...but ugh...

 

I do hate pitchers, but I find it helps to remind myself that the free-agent position players mostly suck and we have a fairly solid lineup as-is.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm going to find it very difficult to get excited about FA pitcher signings. I know it needs to happen, obviously...but ugh...

 

Will you find it hard to get excited about a FA pitcher until the Cubs actually sign one, or you will not be excited even after they sign one for some irrational "money wasting" phobia?

[Derwood]

I'm going to find it very difficult to get excited about FA pitcher signings. I know it needs to happen, obviously...but ugh...

 

Will you find it hard to get excited about a FA pitcher until the Cubs actually sign one, or you will not be excited even after they sign one for some irrational "money wasting" phobia?

 

Not sure about Banedon, but I won't be hanging on every tweet and news report about potential signings this off season.

[Banedon]

I'm going to find it very difficult to get excited about FA pitcher signings. I know it needs to happen, obviously...but ugh...

 

Will you find it hard to get excited about a FA pitcher until the Cubs actually sign one, or you will not be excited even after they sign one for some irrational "money wasting" phobia?

 

It's more of an injury phobia more than any money wasting thing. It's not a super rational fear.

[TheDude]

He's been the top target since he was traded and shed draft compensation. I have high hopes he signs with the Cubs.

[Guest]

I'm not going to pitch a fit if they sign Lester, but he's really not all that high on the list of guys I want to add to the rotation, mostly due to age(he'll be 31 next year). To try and narrow down a bit, I found the seasons of pitchers 31-35 signed as FA in this CBA for > 10 million.

 

Player  Age   fWAR
Wilson   31    2.0
Wilson   32    3.2
Wilson   33    0.6
Buehrle  33    1.9
Buehrle  34    2.6
Buehrle  35    3.5
Jaxon    31    0.5
Nolasco  31    1.1
Haren    33    1.5
Feldman  31    1.6

 

That's not a definitive list of Lester's peers of course, but it's difficult to ignore that only 4 of the 10 seasons even reach league average performance, and none exceed 3.5 fWAR. For reference, Buehrle's 3.5 fWAR tied him for 23rd among SP.

 

Lester has been better than all of those guys, and in most cases more consistent, so I'm less worried about him pulling a Jackson or a Nolasco and being bad, but I am worried that he's not going to be very good, and possibly very quickly. If I'm spending 8 figures and many years on a SP this year, my guy is Maeda. I'd also really like to explore the trade market for a young starter over spending big on Lester. In recent years you've seen names like Skaggs, Fister, Gio, Santiago, etc get moved by trade, and I'd much prefer using assets to get those guys than use assets to get Lester with the age concerns I have.

[Guest]

How much of an AL-> NL bump should we expect?

 

Top of my head it has seemed like a lot of guys have benefited a lot from this, including guys we have gotten.

 

It also seems like we've had a lot of lefty starters overachieve for us, particularly at Wrigley, but that's entirely anecdotal and there are obvious exceptions.

[Guest]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/09/30/obsessive-jon-lester-watch-yes-this-is-now-a-thing-and-heres-the-latest/

[Guest]

I'm not going to pitch a fit if they sign Lester, but he's really not all that high on the list of guys I want to add to the rotation, mostly due to age(he'll be 31 next year). To try and narrow down a bit, I found the seasons of pitchers 31-35 signed as FA in this CBA for > 10 million.

 

Player  Age   fWAR
Wilson   31    2.0
Wilson   32    3.2
Wilson   33    0.6
Buehrle  33    1.9
Buehrle  34    2.6
Buehrle  35    3.5
Jaxon    31    0.5
Nolasco  31    1.1
Haren    33    1.5
Feldman  31    1.6

 

That's not a definitive list of Lester's peers of course, but it's difficult to ignore that only 4 of the 10 seasons even reach league average performance, and none exceed 3.5 fWAR. For reference, Buehrle's 3.5 fWAR tied him for 23rd among SP.

 

Lester has been better than all of those guys, and in most cases more consistent, so I'm less worried about him pulling a Jackson or a Nolasco and being bad, but I am worried that he's not going to be very good, and possibly very quickly. If I'm spending 8 figures and many years on a SP this year, my guy is Maeda. I'd also really like to explore the trade market for a young starter over spending big on Lester. In recent years you've seen names like Skaggs, Fister, Gio, Santiago, etc get moved by trade, and I'd much prefer using assets to get those guys than use assets to get Lester with the age concerns I have.

 

From what little I've read/heard about Maeda, it seems even a declining Lester is about on par with what's expected from him. What am I missing other than the age?

[SouthSideRyan]

TT, I get what you're saying, but I get the sense it's Lester or nothing when it comes to the top 4 (Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Maeda). Failing to get any of those 4 would be fit-pitchworthy IMO

 

Personally, Scherzer is my guy, but it seems we have no interest in him

[Guest]

TT, I get what you're saying, but I get the sense it's Lester or nothing when it comes to the top 4 (Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Maeda). Failing to get any of those 4 would be fit-pitchworthy IMO

 

Personally, Scherzer is my guy, but it seems we have no interest in him

 

I heard something from Kap a while back that they didn't like his medicals, but otherwise I haven't heard anything positive or negative on it.

 

I'm sure we'll be going after all of them (assuming there isn't some backdoor deal right now with Lester) and see what happens.

 

Getting 2 from that group would be so awesome. I'd be OK with McCarthy as a second guy but I don't love him anymore now that he's upped his price.

[SouthSideRyan]

TT, I get what you're saying, but I get the sense it's Lester or nothing when it comes to the top 4 (Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Maeda). Failing to get any of those 4 would be fit-pitchworthy IMO

 

Personally, Scherzer is my guy, but it seems we have no interest in him

 

I heard something from Kap a while back that they didn't like his medicals, but otherwise I haven't heard anything positive or negative on it.

 

I'm sure we'll be going after all of them (assuming there isn't some backdoor deal right now with Lester) and see what happens.

 

Getting 2 from that group would be so awesome. I'd be OK with McCarthy as a second guy but I don't love him anymore now that he's upped his price.

 

I don't know why you'd think we'll go after all of them. Getting 2 is really what we should do, with Liriano and McCarthy added in as acceptable #2 acquisitions. We have an absurd amount of money available, and few spots to spend it on.

[Guest]

TT, I get what you're saying, but I get the sense it's Lester or nothing when it comes to the top 4 (Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Maeda). Failing to get any of those 4 would be fit-pitchworthy IMO

 

Personally, Scherzer is my guy, but it seems we have no interest in him

 

I heard something from Kap a while back that they didn't like his medicals, but otherwise I haven't heard anything positive or negative on it.

 

I'm sure we'll be going after all of them (assuming there isn't some backdoor deal right now with Lester) and see what happens.

 

Getting 2 from that group would be so awesome. I'd be OK with McCarthy as a second guy but I don't love him anymore now that he's upped his price.

 

I don't know why you'd think we'll go after all of them. Getting 2 is really what we should do, with Liriano and McCarthy added in as acceptable #2 acquisitions. We have an absurd amount of money available, and few spots to spend it on.

 

Don't mean to imply that we'd be trying to sign all of them, just that we'll pursue all of them. Even if we could, I don't think we'd sign more than 2.

 

Obviously I don't know how the logistics are gonna work when you have serious offers out to multiple guys (I'm sure they have their etiquette about situations like that), but I think they'll show interest in all 4. At worst, 3, if they really are scared off by Scherzer's medicals.

[Guest]

From what little I've read/heard about Maeda, it seems even a declining Lester is about on par with what's expected from him. What am I missing other than the age?

 

I'm open to reconsidering as more info comes out about Maeda, but I'm personally skeptical at the ceiling some are putting on him. For example, people said similar things about Iwakuma, he was a free agent the same year as Greinke. Since then, Iwakuma has 7.2 fWAR to 6.7 for Greinke, and Greinke was a much more desirable FA than Lester because those seasons were at age 29 and 30.

 

More simply, the near universal success at meeting/exceeding expectations that Japanese pitchers have had in recent years makes me extremely interested in one that has had Maeda's success at his age. Even more so if people are going to be a bit bearish on his ceiling and help keep the bidding from going crazy.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not getting caught up in hoping for 2, let alone expecting it.

[Guest]

I'm not getting caught up in hoping for 2, let alone expecting it.

 

I'm expecting one, hoping for two (and if it were two, I'm not holding out hope for Lester and Scherzer or anything like that...but I could see Lester and Shields, for instance, if things work out just right)

[SouthSideRyan]

TT, I get what you're saying, but I get the sense it's Lester or nothing when it comes to the top 4 (Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Maeda). Failing to get any of those 4 would be fit-pitchworthy IMO

 

Personally, Scherzer is my guy, but it seems we have no interest in him

 

I heard something from Kap a while back that they didn't like his medicals, but otherwise I haven't heard anything positive or negative on it.

 

I'm sure we'll be going after all of them (assuming there isn't some backdoor deal right now with Lester) and see what happens.

 

Getting 2 from that group would be so awesome. I'd be OK with McCarthy as a second guy but I don't love him anymore now that he's upped his price.

 

I don't know why you'd think we'll go after all of them. Getting 2 is really what we should do, with Liriano and McCarthy added in as acceptable #2 acquisitions. We have an absurd amount of money available, and few spots to spend it on.

 

Don't mean to imply that we'd be trying to sign all of them, just that we'll pursue all of them. Even if we could, I don't think we'd sign more than 2.

 

Obviously I don't know how the logistics are gonna work when you have serious offers out to multiple guys (I'm sure they have their etiquette about situations like that), but I think they'll show interest in all 4. At worst, 3, if they really are scared off by Scherzer's medicals.

 

Judging by everything they've said since coming here, I don't think they'll pursue Scherzer or Shields.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not getting caught up in hoping for 2, let alone expecting it.

 

I'm probably less than 50-50 on us getting 1.

[Guest]

 

Judging by everything they've said since coming here, I don't think they'll pursue Scherzer or Shields.

 

Maybe I'm underestimating what Shields'll get.

 

Related note - I wonder how the Yankees are going to handle this offseason.

[Guest]

The only chance they're getting 2 of those specific 4 is if Maeda's market never materializes and he signs for Liriano/McCarthy money. I don't think there's any interest at all in Scherzer or Shields. Shields especially seems like a terrible idea.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

Judging by everything they've said since coming here, I don't think they'll pursue Scherzer or Shields.

 

Maybe I'm underestimating what Shields'll get.

 

Related note - I wonder how the Yankees are going to handle this offseason.

 

With understated grace, no doubt.

[Guest]

The only chance they're getting 2 of those specific 4 is if Maeda's market never materializes and he signs for Liriano/McCarthy money. I don't think there's any interest at all in Scherzer or Shields. Shields especially seems like a terrible idea.

 

You don't think they'll even make a phone call?

 

Seems like that would be selling themselves short given their need, availability of money, and scarcity of options. There's no perfect signings, which even they admit, and I think they're at the point where they're getting more and more open to the imperfect.