Zambrano traded to Marlins for Chris Volstad (P. 8)

[treebird]

i like how we only hear about fip when discussing travis wood and only hear about xfip when discussing chris volstad.

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games.

 

i know that. i'm just pointing out that people are kind of cherry-picking a little bit. with wood, everyone just said LOOK AT HIS FIP and ignored the fact that xfip said he was hr lucky last year. now we're all brushing off volstad's fip and saying he'll be fine due to hr normalization.

[XZero771679666304]

i like how we only hear about fip when discussing travis wood and only hear about xfip when discussing chris volstad.

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games.

 

And considering that Volstad induces lots of ground balls and Wood does not.

[bukie]

i like how we only hear about fip when discussing travis wood and only hear about xfip when discussing chris volstad.

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games.

 

i know that. i'm just pointing out that people are kind of cherry-picking a little bit. with wood, everyone just said LOOK AT HIS FIP and ignored the fact that xfip said he was hr lucky last year. now we're all brushing off volstad's fip and saying he'll be fine due to hr normalization.

That doesn't mean I don't enjoy Neyer's implication that the Cubs just traded Zambrano for a younger Gio Gonzalez.

[Rob]

i like how we only hear about fip when discussing travis wood and only hear about xfip when discussing chris volstad.

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games.

 

i know that. i'm just pointing out that people are kind of cherry-picking a little bit. with wood, everyone just said LOOK AT HIS FIP and ignored the fact that xfip said he was hr lucky last year. now we're all brushing off volstad's fip and saying he'll be fine due to hr normalization.

 

You make a valid point. We should be looking at both. (though I tend to trust xFIP more in general, except when it comes to extreme fly ball or ground ball pitchers)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't have much use for xFIP. I don't really see why home runs should be normalized significantly.

[Rob]

I don't have much use for xFIP. I don't really see why home runs should be normalized significantly.

 

Because HR/FB rates are extremely volatile?

 

In what must have been the last few minutes, fangraphs actually put up an article detailing the effectiveness of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the various projection systems at predicting future performance. Click here

 

I'll be honest, after reading that I'm considering making the jump to SIERA as my go-to.

[sneakypower]

i like how we only hear about fip when discussing travis wood and only hear about xfip when discussing chris volstad.

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games.

 

i know that. i'm just pointing out that people are kind of cherry-picking a little bit. with wood, everyone just said LOOK AT HIS FIP and ignored the fact that xfip said he was hr lucky last year. now we're all brushing off volstad's fip and saying he'll be fine due to hr normalization.

Wood's given up HR at 4.5x the frequency at home, in the 2nd worst ballpark for HRs; it's fair to consider whether he might have a Matt Cain-like HR-suppressing skill that just hasn't manifested itself too well at GAB

[Guest]

So is it official that the only player coming back in this deal is Volstad?

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm meh on this trade. Volstad was at one point a top draft pick and decent prospect. He's still fairly young so maybe he just hasn't broken out yet.

 

Also, weren't there rumblings that Matt Dominguez was being included in the trade too or did that not pan out?

 

The Cubs just emailed to let me know they got Volstad, and no mention of Dominguez, so I'm thinking it didn't pan out.

[jersey cubs fan]

So is it official that the only player coming back in this deal is Volstad?

 

The Chicago Cubs have acquired right-handed pitcher Chris Volstad from the Miami Marlins for right-handed pitcher Carlos Zambrano and a cash consideration.

[bukie]

I don't have much use for xFIP. I don't really see why home runs should be normalized significantly.

 

Because HR/FB rates are extremely volatile?

 

In what must have been the last few minutes, fangraphs actually put up an article detailing the effectiveness of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the various projection systems at predicting future performance. Click here

 

I'll be honest, after reading that I'm considering making the jump to SIERA as my go-to.

Just for giggles, here's the aggregate 2010-2011 SIERA for some players relevant to the discussion (I only did two years because Travis Wood only has two years of data):

 

Mat Latos: 3.33

Hiroki Kuroda: 3.60

Roy Oswalt: 3.64

Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.71

Ryan Dempster: 3.76

Matt Garza: 3.79

CJ Wilson: 3.80

Edwin Jackson: 3.92

Gio Gonzalez: 3.98

Trevor Cahill: 4.08

Travis Wood: 4.22

Chris Volstad: 4.23

Rick Porcello: 4.25

Randy Wells: 4.31

Carlos Zambrano: 4.39

Paul Maholm: 4.40

Mark Buehrle: 4.56

Joe Saunders: 4.70

[Exile on Waveland]

I don't have much use for xFIP. I don't really see why home runs should be normalized significantly.

 

Because HR/FB rates are extremely volatile?

 

In what must have been the last few minutes, fangraphs actually put up an article detailing the effectiveness of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the various projection systems at predicting future performance. Click here

 

I'll be honest, after reading that I'm considering making the jump to SIERA as my go-to.

Just for giggles, here's the aggregate 2010-2011 SIERA for some players relevant to the discussion (I only did two years because Travis Wood only has two years of data):

 

Mat Latos: 3.33

Hiroki Kuroda: 3.60

Roy Oswalt: 3.64

Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.71

Ryan Dempster: 3.76

Matt Garza: 3.79

CJ Wilson: 3.80

Edwin Jackson: 3.92Gio Gonzalez: 3.98

Trevor Cahill: 4.08

Travis Wood: 4.22

Chris Volstad: 4.23

Rick Porcello: 4.25

Randy Wells: 4.31

Carlos Zambrano: 4.39

Paul Maholm: 4.40

Mark Buehrle: 4.56

Joe Saunders: 4.70

 

Interesting. I still think Jackson is really underrated on this board.

[XZero771679666304]

I don't have much use for xFIP. I don't really see why home runs should be normalized significantly.

 

Because HR/FB rates are extremely volatile?

 

In what must have been the last few minutes, fangraphs actually put up an article detailing the effectiveness of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the various projection systems at predicting future performance. Click here

 

I'll be honest, after reading that I'm considering making the jump to SIERA as my go-to.

Just for giggles, here's the aggregate 2010-2011 SIERA for some players relevant to the discussion (I only did two years because Travis Wood only has two years of data):

 

Mat Latos: 3.33

Hiroki Kuroda: 3.60

Roy Oswalt: 3.64

Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.71

Ryan Dempster: 3.76

Matt Garza: 3.79

CJ Wilson: 3.80

Edwin Jackson: 3.92Gio Gonzalez: 3.98

Trevor Cahill: 4.08

Travis Wood: 4.22

Chris Volstad: 4.23

Rick Porcello: 4.25

Randy Wells: 4.31

Carlos Zambrano: 4.39

Paul Maholm: 4.40

Mark Buehrle: 4.56

Joe Saunders: 4.70

 

Interesting. I still think Jackson is really underrated on this board.

 

Maybe, but Jackson is unarguably a volatile player, and his asking price (thus far) is pretty ridiculous. He's just not likely to be worth the risk, unless the price comes way down.

 

He is intriguing, though.

[Banedon]

Not sure if this stuff has been posted....I'm not searching the whole thread for it...

 

•Zambrano waived his no-trade clause and his $19.25 million option for 2013 that would have kicked in if he finished in top four of the Cy Young vote. He’ll be a free agent next winter;

 

•He also settled grievance with the Cubs relating to his suspension for basically walking out on the team after a bad starts. He was originally suspended for 30 games without pay. He gets back 24 days of that, which amounts to $2.4 million;

 

•Finally, the deal now includes $100K bonus if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year in 2012.

[ConstableRabbit]

Not sure if this stuff has been posted....I'm not searching the whole thread for it...

 

•Zambrano waived his no-trade clause and his $19.25 million option for 2013 that would have kicked in if he finished in top four of the Cy Young vote. He’ll be a free agent next winter;

 

•He also settled grievance with the Cubs relating to his suspension for basically walking out on the team after a bad starts. He was originally suspended for 30 games without pay. He gets back 24 days of that, which amounts to $2.4 million;

 

•Finally, the deal now includes $100K bonus if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year in 2012.

This reads like Big Z wrote it.

[jersey cubs fan]

•Finally, the deal now includes $100K bonus if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year in 2012.

 

Loria is really opening up the wallet.

 

Or did the Cubs have to commit to paying that bonus?

[Banedon]

Not sure if this stuff has been posted....I'm not searching the whole thread for it...

 

•Zambrano waived his no-trade clause and his $19.25 million option for 2013 that would have kicked in if he finished in top four of the Cy Young vote. He’ll be a free agent next winter;

 

•He also settled grievance with the Cubs relating to his suspension for basically walking out on the team after a bad starts. He was originally suspended for 30 games without pay. He gets back 24 days of that, which amounts to $2.4 million;

 

•Finally, the deal now includes $100K bonus if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year in 2012.

This reads like Big Z wrote it.

 

lol...grabbed it from here:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/05/the-carlos-zambrano-deal-is-official/

[Exile on Waveland]

I don't have much use for xFIP. I don't really see why home runs should be normalized significantly.

 

Because HR/FB rates are extremely volatile?

 

In what must have been the last few minutes, fangraphs actually put up an article detailing the effectiveness of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the various projection systems at predicting future performance. Click here

 

I'll be honest, after reading that I'm considering making the jump to SIERA as my go-to.

Just for giggles, here's the aggregate 2010-2011 SIERA for some players relevant to the discussion (I only did two years because Travis Wood only has two years of data):

 

Mat Latos: 3.33

Hiroki Kuroda: 3.60

Roy Oswalt: 3.64

Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.71

Ryan Dempster: 3.76

Matt Garza: 3.79

CJ Wilson: 3.80

Edwin Jackson: 3.92Gio Gonzalez: 3.98

Trevor Cahill: 4.08

Travis Wood: 4.22

Chris Volstad: 4.23

Rick Porcello: 4.25

Randy Wells: 4.31

Carlos Zambrano: 4.39

Paul Maholm: 4.40

Mark Buehrle: 4.56

Joe Saunders: 4.70

 

Interesting. I still think Jackson is really underrated on this board.

 

Maybe, but Jackson is unarguably a volatile player, and his asking price (thus far) is pretty ridiculous. He's just not likely to be worth the risk, unless the price comes way down.

 

He is intriguing, though.

 

His asking price is absurd, no doubt. I just don't believe, at this point, he's going to come close to achieving that price. As for volatility, yes, but even his "down" years would be helpful. WARs the last four years: 2.1, 4.3, 1.7, 3.1 (the 1.7 is dragged down because he was awful in Arizona; perhaps park effects that the Cubs wouldn't have to worry about? Not sure.). He also pitched at least 183 innings each of those four years. That's nothing to scoff at.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Maybe this has been posted somewhere, but any word on what becomes of Zs 2013 salary? I believe it's 18 mil club option with a 9 mil buyout. Can't imagine the club option being picked up, but who's picking up the tab on the BO? If they pick that up its worthwhile in its own.

[SouthSideRyan]

Where the [expletive] do you keep getting this 9M buyout from?

[Guest]

There is no option for 2013. He would've needed to finish in the Top 4 of the Cy Young voting to get a player option, but he waived it as part of the trade. There's a post quoting this information two posts prior to yours.

[abuck1220]

i heard it was a gajillion dollar buyout.

[Guest]

Not sure if this stuff has been posted....I'm not searching the whole thread for it...

 

•Zambrano waived his no-trade clause and his $19.25 million option for 2013 that would have kicked in if he finished in top four of the Cy Young vote. He’ll be a free agent next winter;

 

•He also settled grievance with the Cubs relating to his suspension for basically walking out on the team after a bad starts. He was originally suspended for 30 games without pay. He gets back 24 days of that, which amounts to $2.4 million;

 

•Finally, the deal now includes $100K bonus if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year in 2012.

This reads like Big Z wrote it.

 

We stinks!

[Guest]

lol at this buyout thing

[Banedon]

After polling a number of players, Epstein realized Zambrano could never regain "trust" in the clubhouse after his August walkout left players and management feeling "burned" again.

 

"I was skeptical," he said, adding: "I'm not big on labels, I'm not big on reputations dictating how I treat people or how I think about people. But this was one that was really consistent. Every player I talked to articulated to me that Carlos really violated their trust. When you're talking about physical altercations with players repeatedly, when you're talking about physically walking out on the team, it's very hard to then have that player come back into the clubhouse and be trusted. In order to be a good teammate, there has to be a certain degree of trust and accountability.

 

"Do I believe in second chances? Yes. Do I believe in third chances? Yes, in some cases, and even fourth chances. But I think you have to be realistic about it and recognize that players don't dictate decisions like this, but you're trying to establish a certain sense of unity in the clubhouse, and a sense of purpose... The players here felt, and the organization feels, like there just wasn't trust there, and it was a risky proposition to see whether that trust could be re-established."