What's gotten into the Cardinals?

[bukie]

Last year on this date, the Cards were 24-30. This year, they're 35-25.

 

What personnel changes have prompted the 8-game turnaround? They replaced Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes in the rotation with a rejuvenated Todd Wellemeyer and Kyle Lohse. Braden Looper is 7-4 despite an 83 ERA+ and a 5.03 ERA. Offensively, they switched out Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus, David Eckstein for Cesar Izturis, Jim Edmonds for Rick Ankiel, and Juan Encarnacion for Ryan Ludwick.

 

Really, their only clear upgrade thus far has been Edmonds for Ankiel, although Ludwick is outperforming even the most optimistic projections by about double.

 

The longer they hang around, though, the less likely that it is all a fluke. Maybe Wellemeyer is that much better than Wells. Maybe Ludwick does have more power than Pujols....nah....

[CubmanPi]

I don't know, but if I knew at the beginning of the season that the Cubs would be 17 over in the first week of June, I wouldn't have imagined the Cards to be within 10 games. Not too shabby...

[Little Slide Rooter]

Both the Cubs and Cards are playing above their heads right now. Both are sure to come back down to earth sooner or later. The difference is, the Cubs are clearly the better team, and by coming down to earth for the Cubs, I mean playing over .500 ball, and by coming down to Earth for the Cards, I mean playing .425-.450 ball.

[UK1679666180]

As long as they can remain competitive yet not able to pass the Cubs, this is a good thing. I'd rather not see them coast until Sept (once Sept comes around, I'd love for them to be in a position to put starters on low pitch counts, Marmol and Wood extra rest, and rest everyday players with a couple weeks left) and potentially lost that edge.

 

It would be great for baseball if both teams play well throughout.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

they can't be stopped

[TruffleShuffle]

i think they're the best team in the national league, personally

[bukie]

Both the Cubs and Cards are playing above their heads right now. Both are sure to come back down to earth sooner or later. The difference is, the Cubs are clearly the better team, and by coming down to earth for the Cubs, I mean playing over .500 ball, and by coming down to Earth for the Cards, I mean playing .425-.450 ball.

 

The Cubs are still one game under their Pythagorean projection, and right at their adjusted EQA projection. They are a couple games ahead of their 3rd level projection (Adjusted EQA). Roster-wise, who is overperforming? Theriot, DeRosa and Cedeno, maybe, but not by a whole lot, and any overperforming is explained by a difference in OBP. Derrek Lee is underperforming at this point. Dempster will likely come down, but it's just as likely as Lilly coming back and performing at his normal rate. Marquis is not likely to keep performing as he is and continue pitching. Hill, Marshall, and Gallagher should be able to provide extra rotation support if any of the other pitchers falter.

 

As for the Cardinals, they are overplaying all their projections, by 2-3 games each. Plus, guys like Ludwick, Schumaker, and Molina aren't likely to maintain their pace, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone else available in the lineup or on the bench that should improve significantly. Wellemeyer is as off the charts as Dempster at this time, Looper's peripherals are going to catch up with him eventually, and Lohse is also having his best year in a while. Isringhausen fell apart, but Franklin stepped up nicely, so it's not as if they're worse in the pen than expected.

 

I do find it scary that the Cubs really aren't playing above their heads to this point. They're just playing to their potential, which they haven't done in 10 years.

[mul21]

Interesting number I heard about Lohse before the season started. In 06 and 07 he had somewhere around a 1.62 ERA in games he won and a 10.20 ERA in games he lost. Odd that there was no middle ground there and he was either really bad or really god (like he was against the Cubs a couple times).

[Soul]

I don't think they're going away. They're like the DBacks were last year. They'll just amaze everyone all year long until someone dethrones them head to head. I hope it's the Cubs, and I hope it's before the playoffs start. Because I don't want there to even be an opportunity for them to beat us in a playoff series.

[NonProfitCow]

I'm hoping that the Cardinals make the playoffs this year. Things will look a little different in a playoff series if things go as planned. We have that Carpenter guy that's supposed to be back around the All Star break. A 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is as good as anything in the NL except for Webb/Haren. I don't think the lineup is going to suffer much when Ludwick finally cools because Glaus and Duncan have to hit better, and limiting Schumaker's at bats is an addition by subtraction kind of thing. The bullpen is actually better now that Izzy is gone, because it made a spot for Chris Perez, who is filthy. Don't look for this team to go away any time soon.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Carpenter is coming back from TJ, right?

 

Pitchers who come back from TJ are rarely more than average their first year back. They only get back to old form in the second season.

[Keener98]

Carpenter is coming back from TJ, right?

 

Pitchers who come back from TJ are rarely more than average their first year back. They only get back to old form in the second season.

 

 

Yea Cardinal fans just seem to want to ignore this fact, and automatically assume Carp will come back as Cy Young Carp. When Mulder coming back? :-"

[NonProfitCow]

Carpenter is coming back from TJ, right?

 

Pitchers who come back from TJ are rarely more than average their first year back. They only get back to old form in the second season.

Yes, he's coming back from TJS. I'm optimistic because he's done the whole rehab thing before. In other Cardinals news, Clement made his first rehab start last night with good results and his fastball is sitting at 88. If Looper pitches as poorly as he has, I'm not too worried. Clement may be worried and we have Jaime Garcia in AAA, who is pretty damn good.

[NonProfitCow]

Carpenter is coming back from TJ, right?

 

Pitchers who come back from TJ are rarely more than average their first year back. They only get back to old form in the second season.

 

 

Yea Cardinal fans just seem to want to ignore this fact, and automatically assume Carp will come back as Cy Young Carp. When Mulder coming back? :-"

At the current rate he'll only come back as a loogy sometime down the road. TJS is quite different than shoulder surgery though.

[nolanwood]

I'm hoping that the Cardinals make the playoffs this year. Things will look a little different in a playoff series if things go as planned. We have that Carpenter guy that's supposed to be back around the All Star break. A 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is as good as anything in the NL except for Webb/Haren. I don't think the lineup is going to suffer much when Ludwick finally cools because Glaus and Duncan have to hit better, and limiting Schumaker's at bats is an addition by subtraction kind of thing. The bullpen is actually better now that Izzy is gone, because it made a spot for Chris Perez, who is filthy. Don't look for this team to go away any time soon.

 

 

Glaus currently has a .264 avg & .370 obp - his career #'s are a .254 avg and .359 obp. Duncan is currently in the minor leagues. What makes you think both of these guys are gonna improve? What are the odds Carp returns and immediately is at Cy Young status? Only in Dreamland is Wainwright and the magical return of Carpenter the best 1-2 punch in the NL. Wainwright's #'s are currently worse than Dempster, Zambrano, Webb, Haren, Volquez, Lincecum & Sheets.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

A 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is as good as anything in the NL except for Webb/Haren

tell that to Zambrano/Sabathia

[sneakypower]

a false sense of confidence

[nolanwood]

A 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is as good as anything in the NL except for Webb/Haren

tell that to Zambrano/Sabathia

 

 

\:D/ :beg:

[Post Count Padder]

I keep waiting for them to cool off and it's not happening. FTH

[SouthSideRyan]

Interesting number I heard about Lohse before the season started. In 06 and 07 he had somewhere around a 1.62 ERA in games he won and a 10.20 ERA in games he lost. Odd that there was no middle ground there and he was either really bad or really god (like he was against the Cubs a couple times).

 

I don't think that's that out of line with the norm.

[UMFan83]

I honestly don't believe that Carp is going to come back as strong as he was before. 80% maybe.

[NonProfitCow]

I'm hoping that the Cardinals make the playoffs this year. Things will look a little different in a playoff series if things go as planned. We have that Carpenter guy that's supposed to be back around the All Star break. A 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is as good as anything in the NL except for Webb/Haren. I don't think the lineup is going to suffer much when Ludwick finally cools because Glaus and Duncan have to hit better, and limiting Schumaker's at bats is an addition by subtraction kind of thing. The bullpen is actually better now that Izzy is gone, because it made a spot for Chris Perez, who is filthy. Don't look for this team to go away any time soon.

 

 

Glaus currently has a .264 avg & .370 obp - his career #'s are a .254 avg and .359 obp. Duncan is currently in the minor leagues. What makes you think both of these guys are gonna improve? What are the odds Carp returns and immediately is at Cy Young status? Only in Dreamland is Wainwright and the magical return of Carpenter the best 1-2 punch in the NL. Wainwright's #'s are currently worse than Dempster, Zambrano, Webb, Haren, Volquez, Lincecum & Sheets.

Well, I would think that Glaus and Duncan are going to improve because Glaus is slugging .090 points below his career average and Duncan is slugging .121 below average. I was saying that Wainwright/Carpenter would be the best playoff contenders 1-2, which is why I didn't count Volquez/Harang or Cain/Lincecum. If you really believe that Dempster is going to keep it up, go ahead and replace Carpenter with Wellemeyer.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm hoping that the Cardinals make the playoffs this year. Things will look a little different in a playoff series if things go as planned. We have that Carpenter guy that's supposed to be back around the All Star break. A 1-2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright is as good as anything in the NL except for Webb/Haren. I don't think the lineup is going to suffer much when Ludwick finally cools because Glaus and Duncan have to hit better, and limiting Schumaker's at bats is an addition by subtraction kind of thing. The bullpen is actually better now that Izzy is gone, because it made a spot for Chris Perez, who is filthy. Don't look for this team to go away any time soon.

 

 

Glaus currently has a .264 avg & .370 obp - his career #'s are a .254 avg and .359 obp. Duncan is currently in the minor leagues. What makes you think both of these guys are gonna improve? What are the odds Carp returns and immediately is at Cy Young status? Only in Dreamland is Wainwright and the magical return of Carpenter the best 1-2 punch in the NL. Wainwright's #'s are currently worse than Dempster, Zambrano, Webb, Haren, Volquez, Lincecum & Sheets.

Well, I would think that Glaus and Duncan are going to improve because Glaus is slugging .090 points below his career average and Duncan is slugging .121 below average. I was saying that Wainwright/Carpenter would be the best playoff contenders 1-2, which is why I didn't count Volquez/Harang or Cain/Lincecum. If you really believe that Dempster is going to keep it up, go ahead and replace Carpenter with Wellemeyer.

 

You really think Carpenter's going to jump back into being a great pitcher after TJS?

[NonProfitCow]

You really think Carpenter's going to jump back into being a great pitcher after TJS?

Not great immediately, but I think he'll be pretty good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You really think Carpenter's going to jump back into being a great pitcher after TJS?

Not great immediately, but I think he'll be pretty good.

 

This thinking led me to draft Francisco Liriano in the first 8 rounds of two fantasy drafts this year.