What's gotten into the Cardinals?

[Jehrico]

If it was luck, how could they all be hurt?

 

They nearly gave that game away with all the HBP in the 8th.

Because they already had the season where no one gets hurt (2004). Now they get to have the season where everyone gets hurt and they inexplicably play well anyway.

 

It's not luck that teams that can still win despite injuries or that rotations built on rubber arms and guys coming off of injuries can pitch for an entire season.

 

For as much talk about STL playing over their heads, the Cubs have as well.

We're actually one game worse than we should be due to our pythagorean. The Cards are three games better. They're lucky by their record with respect to runs scored vs allowed and their record. We're not playing over our heads anywhere nearly as much as they are. The performances they're getting from Looper, Lohse, and Wellemeyer are more astounding than what we're getting out of Dempster. We don't have anyone on offense producing over their head like Dudwick is. The only starter we have on offense that is significantly outproducing expectations is Theriot. Soto came down to earth, Fuku is performing about what one should have reasonably expected. Aramis is Aramis. Lee is below expectations. We knew CF would suck, and it has. Soriano was Soriano, but now he's out. DeRosa has been maybe slightly better than expectations. Comparing us to the Cards as far as playing over our heads is simply not a valid comparison.

[Guest]

I don't buy the argument that the Cubs are playing over their heads just as much as the Cards are. The Cubs were expected, along with the Brewers, to be in first or second place for most of the year, which they've done thus far. The Cards were expected to suck which they haven't done so far and currently have the second best record in the NL and fourth in the Majors.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If it was luck, how could they all be hurt?

 

They nearly gave that game away with all the HBP in the 8th.

 

Fortunately, it was given back to them with the bad call on the play Molina got hurt, and Chase Utley forgetting to throw.

 

For as much talk about STL playing over their heads, the Cubs have as well.

 

Even without getting into who has overperformed expectations more(I'm quite certain you'd find the Cards have more overachievers), the Cubs have a 7 game advantage in Pythagorean.

[brinoch]

I really don't care that much about the Cardinals, or even worry about them. Let them keep winning if they can. Besides, the rivalry is good for both teams. The only thing I care about? Easy:

 

1. Making the playoffs.

2. Winning the National Pennant.

3. Winning the World Series.

[TruffleShuffle]

i would LOVE for the cards (and marlins for that matter) to make the playoffs.

[UK1679666180]

We're actually one game worse than we should be due to our pythagorean. The Cards are three games better. They're lucky by their record with respect to runs scored vs allowed and their record. We're not playing over our heads anywhere nearly as much as they are. The performances they're getting from Looper, Lohse, and Wellemeyer are more astounding than what we're getting out of Dempster. We don't have anyone on offense producing over their head like Dudwick is. The only starter we have on offense that is significantly outproducing expectations is Theriot. Soto came down to earth, Fuku is performing about what one should have reasonably expected. Aramis is Aramis. Lee is below expectations. We knew CF would suck, and it has. Soriano was Soriano, but now he's out. DeRosa has been maybe slightly better than expectations. Comparing us to the Cards as far as playing over our heads is simply not a valid comparison.

 

The flaw of the pythag. record can be determined by what would their pythag. record be without the 20-2 loss this weekend?

 

It's just as valid of a comparison, if you expected the Cubs to be on pace for 105-110 wins at the start, I would've thought that's just as nuts as expecting the Cards to win 94.

 

Teams that have a higher standard deviation from their pitching staff and a lower deviation from their offense will often have a better overall record than the opposite even if they have the same run differential.

 

[expletive], I hate stats.

[brinoch]

i would LOVE for the cards (and marlins for that matter) to make the playoffs.

 

Yes, it would be fun to sweep both of them en route to the World Series.

[TruffleShuffle]

i would LOVE for the cards (and marlins for that matter) to make the playoffs.

 

Yes, it would be fun to sweep both of them en route to the World Series.

 

i'm not thinking about them being our chief rival and the team that knocked us out in 2003, but more as someone who wants the cubs to play teams that are not very good.

[Jehrico]

The flaw of the pythag. record can be determined by what would their pythag. record be without the 20-2 loss this weekend?

 

It's just as valid of a comparison, if you expected the Cubs to be on pace for 105-110 wins at the start, I would've thought that's just as nuts as expecting the Cards to win 94.

 

Teams that have a higher standard deviation from their pitching staff and a lower deviation from their offense will often have a better overall record than the opposite even if they have the same run differential.

 

****, I hate stats.

The Cards have had their blowouts that have bouyed their pythagorean before that. Over the course of a season, it generally evens out.

[TheDude]

For as much talk about STL playing over their heads, the Cubs have as well.

It really doesn't seem to matter how many times people repeat it, this sentiment appears. No they haven't. They have played according to their pythag record, maybe above 1 or 2 games depending on which you use.

 

Individually, there are a handful of players over-performing (Dempster, Theriot, and arguably Soto and Fukudome if you distrust the rookie numbers), but by slim margins overall (not Ludwig margins by any means). There are no players having absurdly disproportionate career years.

 

There are players under-performing as well, namely Lee, Lilly, Hill, and Marquis. It's safe to say that people expected Hill to put up Dempster's numbers, and vice-versa. That doesn't change the bottom line production though.

 

The Cubs are not playing over their heads, certainly not in the way the Cardinals have thus far. The Cubs were almost universally projected as the division winners and were expected to produce big numbers offensively.

 

Is it possible last year's under-performance is influencing this year's perspective? Despite winning the division, last year's team under-performed by many games. That team gave away many wins. It could have been just a few games shy of this year's team offensively.

[RedVerbs]

The only two players playing really over projections on the Cardinals are Ludwick and Wellemeyer. And even those aren't crazy.

 

While nothing in his past would allow you to think Ludwick would be this good, I feel his projections were lowered do to injuries he's had and lack of playing time, but he always had a lot of power.

 

Wellemeyer does have talent, and Dave Duncan is a tremendous pitching coach. If this was someone who throw slop up at the plate, it would be different, but he has good stuff.

[bukie]

I think there's an important distinction to be made between the Cubs playing "over their heads", and the Cubs playing better than anyone really expected at the beginning of the year. The second part is definitely true. Even if everyone is simply producing as projected, the Cub fan in all of us couldn't have foretold that it would work out that well.

 

In terms of overall production related to wins, any method you look at suggest the Cubs are actually playing right according to production, and the Cubs are producing about as well as predicted.

 

Sure, DeRosa didn't decline, Theriot became more patient, and Dempster has worked out better than imagined. Also, Lilly was awful for two months, Hill isn't even in the rotation after being replaced by average innings from Gallagher, and Lee is underperforming his projections. All in all, it evens out.

[Soul]

The only two players playing really over projections on the Cardinals are Ludwick and Wellemeyer. And even those aren't crazy.

 

While nothing in his past would allow you to think Ludwick would be this good, I feel his projections were lowered do to injuries he's had and lack of playing time, but he always had a lot of power.

 

Wellemeyer does have talent, and Dave Duncan is a tremendous pitching coach. If this was someone who throw slop up at the plate, it would be different, but he has good stuff.

 

 

Wellemeyer has good stuff, but he's clearly not ready for a starting role which is why his arm is blowing up. You can find dozens of relievers who have really good stuff. That doesn't mean they can handle being starters. Todd's already got more innings pitched in mid June than he has ever had in his career -- that represents a big risk the Cards are taking, not only with the performance of their rotation, but in my opinion with Todd's health.

 

Ludwick will likely be figured out and watch his production drastically drop, just like Chris Duncan's did after a certain number of ABs in the big leagues.

 

No argument from me that DD is a good pitching coach. But the Cards are taking some big chances with players to stay in the race, where the Cubs are really not. To me that's the difference between the two ballclubs. We *SHOULD* (notice the emphasis) be able to maintain, while the Cards *SHOULD* fade. Will that actually happen? I don't think any system or analysis can say that for sure. But the Cards did, in fact, fade last season for some of the very same reasons that they should this year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The only two players playing really over projections on the Cardinals are Ludwick and Wellemeyer.

 

That's not true at all. I saw a list the other day that had something like 6 Cardinals at least 15 points above their projected EqA. And that's just the hitters.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This point about removing blowouts from Pythagorean record makes no sense. The entire *point* of pythagorean record is that blowouts can be a strong indicator of how good a team is, moreso than close wins. Getting blown out 20-2 is a bad sign. The Cubs have never even lose by double-digits, and are 14-4 in games decided by more than four runs.

[UK1679666180]

Blowouts can be an indication of how bad a pitcher can be on a given day rather than long-term failure.

 

The Cubs used it as a selling point for Marquis (which I disagreed with, more b/c I dislike his apporach towards the game) as far as his 2 bad outings in '06 tainting his ERA.

 

If you want an example of pythag. record look at AZ last year, they took the Cubs to the woodshed when it mattered.

 

Yes, I believe the Cubs are playing better than anyone expected as is STL.

 

The Cubs being projected in 1st b/c they are likely the best team, I don't think anyone has disputed that, but to say at this stage I expected the Cubs to be in 1st place with one of the top 10 run differentials of all-time and projected them to 105-110 games is prob. a case of bs'ing.

[Soul]

Blowouts can be an indication of how bad a pitcher can be on a given day rather than long-term failure.

 

In this particular case, it seems to me that getting blown out 20-2 was mostly a good study in the stupidity of throwing a pitcher who has elbow pain.

[Jehrico]

Cards just swept at home by KC. Is this the beginning of their long-expected slide?

[mtozz]

Cards just swept at home by KC. Is this the beginning of their long-expected slide?

 

Maybe not. Just stole one from the Red Sox.