Re: Cubs on verge of signing Lieber

[Roast]

Is Lieber really even worth a crap anymore?

 

I don't hate this - but I certainly don't love it.

[Banedon]

"We're going to try to be real aggressive the next three, four weeks before camp and try to come up with somebody else before we get there,"Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

 

Guessing we may still see a move for Roberts...........

 

The words "try to come up with somebody else" do not exactly inspire overwhelming confidence.

[rocket]

way to address the cubs glaring problem, their #5 starter.

 

sean marshall can give 180ish innings at a 4.5 era for the league minimum. jon lieber is a pointless signing.

[CubColtPacer]

way to address the cubs glaring problem, their #5 starter.

 

sean marshall can give 180ish innings at a 4.5 era for the league minimum. jon lieber is a pointless signing.

 

Sean Marshall pitching 180 innings? It would be interesting to see if he could possibly continue to be effective that long considering he has never pitched 150 innings in a single year and the two years he got above 120 he wore down at the end of the year.

[PrimeTime]

I see it as a low risk, high reward type move. It's like the Wade Miller signing over again, but has a better upside since Lieber has real good control and more velocity than Miller

[UMFan83]

We think Lieber is a better bet for this year than either Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster. The problem is that there's good reason to believe Sean Marshall will be better than all three, and this only buries him further. Both manager Lou Piniella and GM Jim Hendry indicated that Lieber wouldn't be guaranteed a rotation spot. However, he'll almost certainly have one. If that results in Dempster's return to the pen, the Cubs should win at least a couple of more games with this move

[nilodnayr]

I see it as a low risk, high reward type move. It's like the Wade Miller signing over again, but has a better upside since Lieber has real good control and more velocity than Miller

 

I wouldn't say high reward, because Lieber isn't going to be an above average starter for 200+ innings, but its definitely got medium reward possibilities.

[CubColtPacer]

We think Lieber is a better bet for this year than either Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster. The problem is that there's good reason to believe Sean Marshall will be better than all three, and this only buries him further. Both manager Lou Piniella and GM Jim Hendry indicated that Lieber wouldn't be guaranteed a rotation spot. However, he'll almost certainly have one. If that results in Dempster's return to the pen, the Cubs should win at least a couple of more games with this move

 

I honestly think this move might help Marshall and/or Gallagher if they stay with the organization. If Dempster had won the job coming out of spring training, he's the type of pitcher who would have just enough good starts to not be replaced but be just bad enough to really hurt the team. Lieber will come in, throw some average innings, and then if/when he gets hurt again Dempster will either be on another team or firmly entrenched in the bullpen again. That will give either Marshall or Gallagher a crack at the rotation for a while that they may be able to keep.

 

I hope the Cubs are very careful with Marshall's arm this year. If they can limit his innings at times in the minors, he will be fresh for the periods in which they might need him starting in the majors.

[nilodnayr]

We think Lieber is a better bet for this year than either Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster. The problem is that there's good reason to believe Sean Marshall will be better than all three, and this only buries him further. Both manager Lou Piniella and GM Jim Hendry indicated that Lieber wouldn't be guaranteed a rotation spot. However, he'll almost certainly have one. If that results in Dempster's return to the pen, the Cubs should win at least a couple of more games with this move

 

3.5M w/ $4M in incentives. So if hes healthy all year you get a league average pitcher for $7.5M for 1 year, while the going rate is about 4 years $12M per.

[Banedon]

We think Lieber is a better bet for this year than either Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster. The problem is that there's good reason to believe Sean Marshall will be better than all three, and this only buries him further. Both manager Lou Piniella and GM Jim Hendry indicated that Lieber wouldn't be guaranteed a rotation spot. However, he'll almost certainly have one. If that results in Dempster's return to the pen, the Cubs should win at least a couple of more games with this move

 

3.5M w/ $4M in incentives. So if hes healthy all year you get a league average pitcher for $7.5M for 1 year, while the going rate is about 4 years $12M per.

 

That greatly depends on exactly what his incentives are.

[Peoriaman]

Prior got 1 million, Lieber 3.5 mil. THAT is what other teams thought about Prior's chances.

[SouthSideRyan]

We think Lieber is a better bet for this year than either Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster. The problem is that there's good reason to believe Sean Marshall will be better than all three, and this only buries him further. Both manager Lou Piniella and GM Jim Hendry indicated that Lieber wouldn't be guaranteed a rotation spot. However, he'll almost certainly have one. If that results in Dempster's return to the pen, the Cubs should win at least a couple of more games with this move

 

3.5M w/ $4M in incentives. So if hes healthy all year you get a league average pitcher for $7.5M for 1 year, while the going rate is about 4 years $12M per.

 

That greatly depends on exactly what his incentives are.

 

No performance incentives so it'd have to be innings pitched or games started right? I think msot are in agreement that if Lieber's healthy he'll be league averageish right?

[jersey cubs fan]

I think msot are in agreement that if Lieber's healthy he'll be league averageish right?

 

I don't know why anybody would assume that. He's a big fat 38 year old coming off surgery. He was basically just above average at his best. And barely hanging onto average recently. I would not assume that he'll be able to maintain averageness even if he is healthy.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It seems that the Cubs have a theme of bringing back their old pitchers, and those pitchers have a theme of not being worth a damn.

 

I expect to see Matt Clement back in a Cubs uniform around 2015.

 

Then again, if it keeps Dempster out of the rotation, can it really be that bad?

[DenverCubs]

I think msot are in agreement that if Lieber's healthy he'll be league averageish right?

 

I don't know why anybody would assume that. He's a big fat 38 year old coming off surgery. He was basically just above average at his best. And barely hanging onto average recently. I would not assume that he'll be able to maintain averageness even if he is healthy.

I think the fact that he's always been average to a little above average, and that the surgery was not on his arm, and that he shouldn't decline that much over 1 year are all reasons to assume he'll be about average.

[SouthSideRyan]

As previously stated, Maddux was definitely worth a damn in his 2nd go-round. He was probably even worth his contract.

 

Lieber hasn't been worse than league averageish since 1995. As Ender pointed out, his peripherals have held up over the past few years, plus he'll be moving to a better defense.

[abuck1220]

I think msot are in agreement that if Lieber's healthy he'll be league averageish right?

 

I don't know why anybody would assume that. He's a big fat 38 year old coming off surgery.

 

seriously. if he wasn't an ex-cub, fan favorite, people would be freaking out right now.

[CubinNY]

I see it as a low risk, high reward type move.

 

That's funny, b/c I see this as a high risk, low reward type move.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think msot are in agreement that if Lieber's healthy he'll be league averageish right?

 

I don't know why anybody would assume that. He's a big fat 38 year old coming off surgery.

 

seriously. if he wasn't an ex-cub, fan favorite, people would be freaking out right now.

 

Seriously, it seems people are freaking out because he's an ex-cub.

[mdwilla]

This move allows Hendry to dangle Marshall/Gallegher/Dempster/ Marquis in bait in a deal for a top of the rotation starter or some help in the middle infield/CF.

[nilodnayr]

I see it as a low risk, high reward type move.

 

That's funny, b/c I see this as a high risk, low reward type move.

 

 

Whats the high risk, that you just flushed 3.5M down the toilet? Is that a high risk?

 

Whats the low reward, that he'll be a healthy but decently below average pitcher all year long?

 

I think hes a low risk, medium reward.

 

The low risk is that hes injured and you flushed the money down the toilet, or that he only pitches a half of a year, but either way we have adequate depth in the high minors.

 

The medium reward is that if hes healthy all year long you've got yourself a league average pitcher for 7.5M, which is pretty darn good in this market. Hes not going to be dominant, but league average at that rate and only for 1 year is a bargain

 

I realize the fact that we have adequate depth in the minors is also a reason to not like this acquisition (or any acquisition outside of a truly above average pitcher), but pitching depth is important. On average, teams have to dip into their system for the 4th and 5th pitchers a significant amount of time due to injuries (although signing injury risks is partially due to this).

[frostwyrm]

The Lieber signing make me even more sure that the Cubs just don't like Sean Marshall. I'd love to see what a Murton/Marshall package could get, since both these guys have some trade value and the org. doesn't like either of them.

[RammyFanny]

Good move.

 

I don't see how people can bash this move when the absolute worst case scenario is: We are in the same situation we were expecting to be in.

[WrigleyField 22]

Good move.

 

I don't see how people can bash this move when the absolute worst case scenario is: We are in the same situation we were expecting to be in.

And out an extra $3.5M. I'd rather put that towards taking a risk a position we have real holes at.

[Derwood]

this must be what it feels like to be a Royals fan