Re: Cubs on verge of signing Lieber

[DenverCubs]

Here's what Rosenthal wrote:

 

"The signing of Lieber could signal a trade of right-hander Jason Marquis or the return of righty Ryan Dempster to the bullpen. Lieber will be in the Cubs' rotation, sources say; otherwise, he would have signed with another club."

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it sure sounds like Lieber is not competing for a spot in the rotation, rather, he has been guaranteed a spot in the rotation. So, that must mean some transaction is in the works.

 

By the way, Kerry Wood is probably thrilled with this. My recollection is that he, Jon and Tapani were very close.

 

Yeah, if they gave him any real money, he's not competing for anything. He's got the spot. Hopefully they trade Marquis and/or Dempster.

 

 

marquis and dempster both in a package for burnett!?!?

 

You read my mind...give them half of Marquis remaining salary and call it a deal.

Edited January 16, 2008 by DenverCubs

[anabiono]

they're obviously trading hill for marlon byrd.

 

i have been praying for this for at least 2 months now!

[jersey cubs fan]

they're obviously trading hill for marlon byrd.

 

Wouldn't it be great to have a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Lieber and Dempster?

[Ender]

Lieber's xERA the past 3 years have been 3.75, 4.10 and 4.09 so he really hasn't regressed that much. He has had problems with strand rates each of the last two seasons which might indicate some problems pitching out of the stretch or just might be randomness.

 

I'd say there is a decent chance he puts up at least as good of numbers as Marquis and better than Dempster.

[anabiono]

Lieber's xERA the past 3 years have been 3.75, 4.10 and 4.09 so he really hasn't regressed that much. He has had problems with strand rates each of the last two seasons which might indicate some problems pitching out of the stretch or just might be randomness.

 

I'd say there is a decent chance he puts up at least as good of numbers as Marquis and better than Dempster.

 

i really think it is time to stop referring to dempster...my grandmother can pitch better than dempster

Edited January 16, 2008 by anabiono

[CUBZ99]

they're obviously trading hill for marlon byrd.

 

Wouldn't it be great to have a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Lieber and Dempster?

 

Great for the Brewers. Although, ABuck is clearly joking about trading Hill, I hope Hendry doesn't do something stupid and trade Hill to the O's for Roberts.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd say there is a decent chance he puts up at least as good of numbers as Marquis

 

The problem is most people want Marquis replaced in the rotation, now they just have two versions of him.

[rawaction]

they're obviously trading hill for marlon byrd.

 

Wouldn't it be great to have a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Lieber and Dempster?

 

Seasoned vets, man. Seasoned vets.

[anabiono]

they're obviously trading hill for marlon byrd.

 

Wouldn't it be great to have a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Lieber and Dempster?

 

Great for the Brewers. Although, ABuck is clearly joking about trading Hill, I hope Hendry doesn't do something stupid and trade Hill to the O's for Roberts.

 

 

if that happened...i think i will root for the pirates this year

[DenverCubs]

they're obviously trading hill for marlon byrd.

 

Wouldn't it be great to have a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Lieber and Dempster?

 

Great for the Brewers. Although, ABuck is clearly joking about trading Hill, I hope Hendry doesn't do something stupid and trade Hill to the O's for Roberts.

 

Luckily, Angelos would veto that trade anyways.

[rocket]

seriously, i don't like marquis or dempster, but i'd rather have either of them than lieber.

 

Why? Why is it so upsetting to everyone to get 100 innings of league average production from the 5 spot as opposed to 200 innings of below average production?

 

seriously? where are the other 100 innings that lieber can't go coming from?

 

also, i don't think it's written in stone that a fat, oft-injured, 38 year old lieber is league average.

 

Probably not average, but #5's don't have to be.

 

one of our rookies could be a below average #5 for a lot less money, if we're going that route.

[Lefty]

Isn't it bad if we sign Lieber for more than it would have cost to take Prior to arbitration? (i.e. $3.5MM+) Especially with the amount of options we have in Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, etc.

 

Don't get me totally wrong, in this situation, I'm in favor of signing Lieber for the quasi-hometown-discount-reclamation-project discount...but it seems kinda backwards to do this when the easy solution might have been to tell Prior to suck it up for a year and take what an arbitor awards him with.

 

Aside from the "I'm in favor of signing Lieber", this post is right on the money.

 

Unless the cubs didn't believe Prior could pitch in the majors in 08.

 

Forget pitching in the majors. What if he isn't available until June? You still have a problem. And as much as I like Prior, we have no idea what he can give you. Anyone who says otherwise is not being honest with themselves.

[jersey cubs fan]

Forget pitching in the majors. What if he isn't available until June? You still have a problem. And as much as I like Prior, we have no idea what he can give you. Anyone who says otherwise is not being honest with themselves.

 

Yes, but the fat old guy with foot problems is also a huge question mark. Seriously, he can't bear his own weight.

[MADD_DOG_31]

Hopefully this one works out better than Greg Maddux's homecoming

 

Maddux' numbers would look pretty good about now.

 

ya, since he had 29 wins in his 2 full seasons here.....second to only Z with 30

 

I'd say if Lieber did that it'd be a Cardinalesque reclamation

Edited January 16, 2008 by MADD_DOG_31

[DenverCubs]

Hopefully this one works out better than Greg Maddux's homecoming

 

Maddux' numbers would look pretty good about now.

 

ya, since he had 39 wins in his 2 full seasons here.....second to only Z

 

I'd say if Lieber did that it'd be a Cardinalesque reclamation

There's no way this is true.

EDIT: He had 29 wins...typo I guess.

[CubbieSouthpaw II]

Isn't it bad if we sign Lieber for more than it would have cost to take Prior to arbitration? (i.e. $3.5MM+) Especially with the amount of options we have in Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, etc.

 

Don't get me totally wrong, in this situation, I'm in favor of signing Lieber for the quasi-hometown-discount-reclamation-project discount...but it seems kinda backwards to do this when the easy solution might have been to tell Prior to suck it up for a year and take what an arbitor awards him with.

 

Aside from the "I'm in favor of signing Lieber", this post is right on the money.

 

I agree also. But my feeling is that Prior would not have pitched. Sorry guys this is re-hashing the anger I have for Prior. I have no proof of this. Its just a gut feeling that he would have played his injury card just so the Cubs would let him go or trade him. He just didn't want to be here. IMHO

Don't bash me to hard. :D

[UK1679666180]

He's such a tight rope pitcher as it is, since he has no out pitch vs. lefties and avg. velocity on his FB and he's getting older.

 

I hope he is able to keep throwing sinkers in the 88-92 range any drop in velo and that timing diff. between the FB and slider becomes that much closer.

 

Hopefully, there is one more year left in that tank.

 

He doesn't have the same stamina as he did in his 1st stint which means Lou will end up putting him on shorter pitch counts, which is what they should or should've did with Marshall to maintain that Marshall could get 30GS/180IP.

[MADD_DOG_31]

levine rreported $3,5 million....is that for sure?

 

If so I think its well worth the risk

[frostwyrm]

.790 and .783 OPS allowed for Lieber the past 2 seasons. I like that he's kept his walk rate down but people have been getting SLG in the mid .400's off him for 4 years now.

[Soul]

No need to get too sophisticated with this:

 

He'll likely suck.

[ctcf]

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the Cubs have signed Jon Lieber to a one-year contract.

Lieber is the last Cubs pitcher to win 20 games and pitched for the team from 1999-2002, but missed much of last season with a foot injury and will soon be 38 years old. He's reportedly been assured that he'll have a spot in the Cubs' rotation, which Rosenthal speculates could lead to a Jason Marquis trade or Ryan Dempster returning to the bullpen.

 

Thats from rotoworld. I certainly like either of the projected results of this signing.

 

Welcome back Jon.

[jersey cubs fan]

He doesn't have the same stamina as he did in his 1st stint which means Lou will end up putting him on shorter pitch counts, which is what they should or should've did with Marshall to maintain that Marshall could get 30GS/180IP.

 

The Cubs really abused the heck out of him the first time through. He was a guy with health issues in Pittsburgh, then he comes here and enjoys some success. Suddenly, he's going from 171 IP, to 203 and 251, followed by 232, then TJS. He was repeatedly thrown out there to pitch after long rain delays.

[Sweet Swinging Billy]

Here's what Rosenthal wrote:

 

"The signing of Lieber could signal a trade of right-hander Jason Marquis or the return of righty Ryan Dempster to the bullpen. Lieber will be in the Cubs' rotation, sources say; otherwise, he would have signed with another club."

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it sure sounds like Lieber is not competing for a spot in the rotation, rather, he has been guaranteed a spot in the rotation. So, that must mean some transaction is in the works.

 

By the way, Kerry Wood is probably thrilled with this. My recollection is that he, Jon and Tapani were very close.

 

--Yeah, what Hoops said about Kerry Wood and Jon lieber being real close, is true. I remember thinking about this when the reports came out initially, that the Cubs were considering signing Lieber. A couple of years ago, I was hoping that the Cubs would trade or re-sign Lieber...but nowadays, I wonder how much he has left in the tank.

[UK1679666180]

Those weren't easy innings either, he racked up some K totals and high pitch counts despite good control.

 

He's sound mechanically, but the poor decisions by Baylor to bring him back after rain delays as you mentioned and being a workhorse caught up to him.

 

Now, worry about his lack of conditioning leading to a drop in velo and stamina.

 

There's a reward of him becoming an effective btm of the rotation and the risk of him is the same as the risk of Marquis.

[CubColtPacer]

Just to put a little bit out there,

 

Bill James projections Lieber to have a 4.04 ERA. Not sure what park or team he's putting him on. This prediction seems really inaccurate.

 

Chone projects him as a 4.63 ERA. Again, not sure what park or team.

 

Marcel projects him at a 4.74 ERA. Not sure what park or team.

 

ZIPS projects Lieber to have a 4.85 ERA (in Philadelphia). Add park factors and a much better defense in Chicago and that projection probably moves down to 4.60 or better.

 

PECOTA's of course haven't come out yet.

 

The projections have him at right about league average for a starting pitcher. I would be interested to see what happens if they re-ran those projections now that he's a Cub. At the same time, pitcher projections are still very, very shaky.