Re: Cubs on verge of signing Lieber

[mdwilla]

I changed the thread title to Cubs sign Lieber as soon it became official on Cubs.com which wasn't too shortly after I posted the thread. Which thread title are you guys seeing?

[KingCubsFan]

I'm disappointed at the lack of news concerning the poss. of Gallagher and Hart having a legit chance at winning a spot in the rotation compared to Marquis/Dempster/Lieber

 

Moreso Gallagher, since Hart I think would be better in the pen as well as Gallagher having a higher ceiling than Hart as well as Gallagher likely to equal them next year and surpass them in the future.

 

 

I am reserving judgment on this point until the end of the offseason. If Marquis and/or Dempster are traded, then there could still be a slot for Gallagher.

 

Why? We're hearing Dempster being talked about, now Lieber is signed, Marquis is still up in the air. Still pretty quiet about the rooks.

 

I'm hoping that that both Seans and Kevin have been told privately that their hard work over the off-season (hopefully Marshall getting stronger and Gallagher cont. his off-season conditioning) can be rewarded with a verbal commit. from the Cubs that they'll be given a shot.

 

I have a suspicion that the talk of Dempster to the rotation was simply to drive up his trade value. I have no tangible reason to think this, but I don't think there was ever any real intent to give Ryan a slot.

 

As for Marquis, it may just be wishful thinking. But Lou seemed awfully put out with him at the end of the season, so there may be some impetus to move him out.

 

Also, if any trades happen, I think one or two of Marshall, Gallagher and Hart will likely be moving out, cutting down the number of slighted youngsters. I can only hope Gallagher would be the one left.

Completely agree.

 

Yeah, that would seem to make more sense than the Cubs declaring Dempster a starter in freaking November. I'm still scratching my head over that, nobody does something so silly with half a damn year before Spring Training starts.

I'm guessing they did that so that Dempster could head into the offseason with the mentality of being a starter. I'm assuming starters and relievers have different throwing/training programs

[Schwarber Fan]

I changed the thread title to Cubs sign Lieber as soon it became official on Cubs.com which wasn't too shortly after I posted the thread. Which thread title are you guys seeing?

 

No clue what he's talking about... I posted that way back at 2:20ish when it still said "Cubs are on the verge of signing Lieber"... you changed it about 2 minutes later and then he randomly quoted me 5 hours after that. :lol:

[ISUCubsFan]

time to institute the platoon pitching system. Lefty heavy lineup? Start Marshall. Righty heavy? Start Lieber (or just kill him and start someone that isn't ancient and terrible).

 

That's not a terrible idea, especially since it will keep Marshall's innings down and might lessen the chances of Lieber getting hurt. Anyone have any numbers on how pitchers do after skipping a turn in the rotation? I kind of doubt Lou will go with that though. Ultimately, I don't think this signing is a horrible move, and it's likely it's a sign that Marquis/Dempster/Marshall/Gallagher will be a part of a trade (which could be good or bad).

[SouthSideRyan]

ZIPS on Lieber

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Lieber
------------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+  
------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   9  12  27  27  166  181   87  26  35 106  4.72   98     
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)  13  10  32  32  197  193   82  23  32 128  4.11  112  
Pes. (15%)   5   9  18  18  111  129   66  19  26  67  5.37   89

[hankp101]

Would that ZIPS projection be impacted by his moving to a more pitcher friendly park? If I recall correctly the ERA+ should be park adjusted, but it seems like the rest of the numbers should improve.

[AlwaysaCub]

ZIPS on Lieber

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Lieber
------------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+  
------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   9  12  27  27  166  181   87  26  35 106  4.72   98     
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)  13  10  32  32  197  193   82  23  32 128  4.11  112  
Pes. (15%)   5   9  18  18  111  129   66  19  26  67  5.37   89

 

Meh. 5th starter numbers. High 4th if he meets the optimistic there. They're definitely worthy of 3.5 million in this market.

[SouthSideRyan]

Would that ZIPS projection be impacted by his moving to a more pitcher friendly park? If I recall correctly the ERA+ should be park adjusted, but it seems like the rest of the numbers should improve.

 

It was posted in the thread about the Cubs signing him, I'm pretty sure Dan adjusted the numbers to the Cubs already.

[1908]

Would that ZIPS projection be impacted by his moving to a more pitcher friendly park? If I recall correctly the ERA+ should be park adjusted, but it seems like the rest of the numbers should improve.

Check the link; the projection is for Lieber on the Cubs.

[hankp101]

My cursed laziness, sorry about that. I would definitely take that from him for 3.5 mil, I would be he hits most of his incentives if he puts up those numbers though.

[atcfootball]

I like Lieber, I think he was good with the Cubs his first go around...

 

Having said that!

 

Why are the Cubs willing to take a 3.5M risk on Lieber who is "older" and has a history of being hurt in the past??

BUT

Not willing to pay the 3.5M to Prior?

 

Seems that your getting the same "type" of player... Only one has a HUGE upside (Possible) and the other has a MINOR upaside (possible).

Assume the Cubs are smart for a moment; this means that they really DON'T think Prior will play at all this season (or he will play NOT good)... Or they are stupid? To be honest at this point, i have no idea which one it is?

SIGN

Lieber

Fox

NOT SIGN

Prior

 

I just don't understand the moves this team is making at all? You think for a second letting Prior go they are done taking a risk on over priced pitchers coming off arm/foot or whatever problems....

Within 30 days they have somehow signed 2 pitchers coming off "arm and foot problems" for MORE then it would have cost them to keep the one they had, that had a greater upside!!!!.... WTF?

[Bull]

I like Lieber, I think he was good with the Cubs his first go around...

 

Having said that!

 

Why are the Cubs willing to take a 3.5M risk on Lieber who is "older" and has a history of being hurt in the past??

BUT

Not willing to pay the 3.5M to Prior?

 

Seems that your getting the same "type" of player... Only one has a HUGE upside (Possible) and the other has a MINOR upaside (possible).

Assume the Cubs are smart for a moment; this means that they really DON'T think Prior will play at all this season (or he will play NOT good)... Or they are stupid? To be honest at this point, i have no idea which one it is?

SIGN

Lieber

Fox

NOT SIGN

Prior

 

I just don't understand the moves this team is making at all? You think for a second letting Prior go they are done taking a risk on over priced pitchers coming off arm/foot or whatever problems....

Within 30 days they have somehow signed 2 pitchers coming off "arm and foot problems" for MORE then it would have cost them to keep the one they had, that had a greater upside!!!!.... WTF?

 

Every team that looked at Prior's medical records didn't think he'd pitch much if at all this season. The only way made sense is if you knew he would come back in 2009, and the Cubs knew he wouldn't.

[CubColtPacer]

ZIPS on Lieber

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Lieber
------------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+  
------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   9  12  27  27  166  181   87  26  35 106  4.72   98     
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)  13  10  32  32  197  193   82  23  32 128  4.11  112  
Pes. (15%)   5   9  18  18  111  129   66  19  26  67  5.37   89

 

Meh. 5th starter numbers. High 4th if he meets the optimistic there. They're definitely worthy of 3.5 million in this market.

 

Once again, I think people are being spoiled by the 03 rotation. Lieber's projection equates to a good 4th starter. How can it be 5th starter numbers if he puts up better numbers than the average starter (average starter has a 96 ERA+)?

 

If he hits his optimistic projection, that's borderline #2/#3 numbers. Only 19 pitchers in the NL threw at least 165 innings and had an ERA of 4.11 or better. That's less than 1.5 starters per team. Add in a few people who threw over 100 innings but not quite 165, and you can see how those numbers would be borderline #2/#3.

[nilodnayr]

ZIPS on Lieber

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Lieber
------------------------------------------------------------------
            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+  
------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   9  12  27  27  166  181   87  26  35 106  4.72   98     
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Opt. (15%)  13  10  32  32  197  193   82  23  32 128  4.11  112  
Pes. (15%)   5   9  18  18  111  129   66  19  26  67  5.37   89

 

Meh. 5th starter numbers. High 4th if he meets the optimistic there. They're definitely worthy of 3.5 million in this market.

 

Once again, I think people are being spoiled by the 03 rotation. Lieber's projection equates to a good 4th starter. How can it be 5th starter numbers if he puts up better numbers than the average starter (average starter has a 96 ERA+)?

 

If he hits his optimistic projection, that's borderline #2/#3 numbers. Only 19 pitchers in the NL threw at least 165 innings and had an ERA of 4.11 or better. That's less than 1.5 starters per team. Add in a few people who threw over 100 innings but not quite 165, and you can see how those numbers would be borderline #2/#3.

 

I absolutely agree, his projection is actually a good 4th/decent 3rd starter. I hate getting wrapped up in the 4th/5th/etc starter thing, but the fact still remains, when Lieber was on the mound he was an average/slightly better than average starter. The main question is, whether or not hes going to be on the mound and if you think there will be a precipitous drop off in his production. He is one of the only (if not the only) reclamation projects that didn't have arm injuries, so hes got that going for him.

[badger1679666666]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

[Ender]

Spot MLB AL NL

#1/#2 3.87 3.97 3.78

#2/#3 4.36 4.41 4.31

#3/#4 4.84 4.84 4.84

#4/#5 5.67 5.66 5.68

 

A #3 starter in the NL in 2006 had between a 4.31 and 4.84 ERA on average. He probably falls into the #4 category now since scoring is down a little. That isn't adjusted for parks or anything though.

[rocket]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to sean marshall.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

Edited January 17, 2008 by rocket

[C.C.]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to gallagher.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

 

How could you know that?

[rocket]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to gallagher.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

 

How could you know that?

 

oh crap, sorry. i meant sean marshall.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to gallagher.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

 

How could you know that?

You know, I could get a good look at a T-Bone steak by sticking my head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take the butcher's word?

[CubColtPacer]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to gallagher.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

 

How could you know that?

 

oh crap, sorry. i meant sean marshall.

 

Marshall can't pitch a full season, which means somebody has to fill in for him. What would you rather have, Marshall for 120 innings and Dempster/Hart for 80, or Lieber for 130 innings and Marshall for 70? I'd much rather have the latter as that is most likely going to give you better production.

[C.C.]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to gallagher.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

 

How could you know that?

You know, I could get a good look at a T-Bone steak by sticking my head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take the butcher's word?

 

 

That makes no sense.

[abuck1220]

well, marshall was cheaper, healthier and better than lieber last year. and lieber is a year older, while marshall has another year of experience. i don't know why anyone would think that lieber would be better than marshall.

[1908]

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to sean marshall.

2008 Zips

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Sean Gallagher            22   4.91   6   9  29  24   143.0  144   78  16   79  104 
Jon Lieber                38   4.72   9  12  27  27   166.0  181   87  26   35  106 
Sean Marshall*            25   4.97   6   8  22  21   116.0  124   64  17   49   75 
Jason Marquis             29   5.06   9  14  30  29   176.0  189   99  28   66   96

Lieber looks to be an improvement over all three to me.

[hardcorecubfan]

abuck called him somewhat expensive? I think I've read it all now.

 

:lol:

 

Apparently you need to look up salaries of MLB players buddy.

 

it kind of is when you could get equal production for 10% of the cost by giving the job to gallagher.

 

the lieber signing alone isn't going to break the cubs. it doesn't really improve them either. but you combine lieber's 3.5 million with dempster's 5 million, marquis' 6 million, eyre's 4 million, and blanco's 3 million that's around 21-22 million that could be easily replaced by cheaper players and spent on 1 or 2 very good players.

 

jon lieber was a pointless signing. it wasn't a horrible signing that's going to cost the cubs the season, but it's jim hendry's usual pointless signing done for the sole purpose that he doesn't trust rookies to fill less-important jobs.

 

How could you know that?

You know, I could get a good look at a T-Bone steak by sticking my head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take the butcher's word?[/quote]

 

I love that line!!! May i use it in the future. It is not copyright protected is it?