ESPN 1000 Reporting Cubs To Begin Pursuit of Burnett

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Cubs have the money to make a run at all three guys.

 

I have the Cubs payroll at roughly 78 million for 11 players (Barrett, Blanco, Dempster, Lee, Maddux, Prior, Ramirez, Rusch, Walker, Williamson, Wood)

 

Assume Murton is in LF at 300K, put Cedeno there at 300K, Zambrano at 5.5 million (he made 3.7 in 2005) and Hairston on the bench at 2.4 million and the payroll stands at 83 million for 15 players. If you fill out the bullpen with Novoa (350 K), Wuertz (350 K) and Ohman (350 K) and Hill (350), we'd be a little over 85 million and still need a SS, RF, CF and fifth starter if you don't use Rusch there along with a couple of bench players. If the Cubs operate with a 105 million payroll, there's still 20 million to pursue Giles, Furcal, and Burnett. While that's not enough for all three of those, it is surely enough to possibly get two.

 

The best course is to pursue all three and take the first two to sign along the dotted line.

[Tedward]

 

 

By the way - What does IIRC mean? Thanks!

 

If I remember correctly.

[Andy]

I didn't read most of this thread. Thought I'd offer a quick suggestion.

 

I like the idea of getting Burnett. Do that and use Williams as trade bait for a RF or package Williams and Walker and find something very useful. I think there is no need for 7 starters, even if 2 get injured you still have Mitre and Co. to spot start. Worst case scenario, you pull a Yankee move and find the Aaron Smalls of the world during the season.

 

However, why do I feel this interest in Burnett is to drive the price up, or distract other teams while Hendry swoops in and picks up Milwood for cheaper?

If JH is doing that, and it works, he's a genius. However IMO there's nothing wrong with at least seriously considering the chase of Burnett if only to scare the living crap out of the rest of the NL at the thought of our staff.

[jtownie]

The Cubs have the money to make a run at all three guys.

 

I have the Cubs payroll at roughly 78 million for 11 players (Barrett, Blanco, Dempster, Lee, Maddux, Prior, Ramirez, Rusch, Walker, Williamson, Wood)

 

Assume Murton is in LF at 300K, put Cedeno there at 300K, Zambrano at 5.5 million (he made 3.7 in 2005) and Hairston on the bench at 2.4 million and the payroll stands at 83 million for 15 players. If you fill out the bullpen with Novoa (350 K), Wuertz (350 K) and Ohman (350 K) and Hill (350), we'd be a little over 85 million and still need a SS, RF, CF and fifth starter if you don't use Rusch there along with a couple of bench players. If the Cubs operate with a 105 million payroll, there's still 20 million to pursue Giles, Furcal, and Burnett. While that's not enough for all three of those, it is surely enough to possibly get two.

 

The best course is to pursue all three and take the first two to sign along the dotted line.

 

For these 11 guys I have closer to 60M.

 

Barret - 3M

Blanco -1.5M

Dempster - 5M

Lee - 8M

Maddux - 9.5

Prior - 3.6

Ramirez - 10.5

Rusch - 2.5

Walker - 2.5

Willamson - 2

Wood - 11

[USSoccer]

Pre-TJ, Burnett used to have one of the most violent and erratic windups in baseball. Think of a monkey at the zoo having a seizure as he was throwing feces at innocent observers.

 

That 's sigworthy. :jocolor:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I have no problem with Burnett and Furcal, but I hope Hendry doesn't forget the worst offensive OF in baseball and a sketchy set-up situation.

[USSoccer]

I do like the fact that Hendry seems to be acting proactively this offseason.

[rawaction]

I have no problem with Burnett and Furcal, but I hope Hendry doesn't forget the worst offensive OF in baseball and a sketchy set-up situation.

 

That's the key. Gotta score some runs, somehow. What if Hendry got a guy like Bradley for CF and a reclamation project for RF (someone mentioned Kearns earlier)?

 

That would be interesting at least. But I'd hate to have an iffy OF when the pitching has health questions.

[NomarSammy]

Interesting stuff today. I just have one question/comment on this Burnett situation.

 

Does anyone else remember hearing when they were talking about Burnett at the deadline that Ryan Dempster and him are best friends. For some reason I thought this and obvioulsy Dempster loves chicago and maybe he is selling that to Burnett

 

Also, for what it is worth--(and I know it wont happen), but I wold love to see a rotation of Z, Prior Burnett, Mad and Rusch and put wood in the pen. I just think kerry's style is such a fit for the pen

[Flames24Rulz]

Burnett would be alright, i'd prefer Washburn though..

 

:shock:

 

Washburn isn't as overrated and is a LEFTY. I believe that we need at least one lefty in the rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Burnett but Washburn won't demand as much and probably won't want as many years as Burnett wants.

[craig]

Even with all the money, Hendry is going to need to do some gambling. Perhaps with a guy like Burnett; spend a bundle, hope he's both healthy and very good. Perhaps with the rotation in general: that Prior and Wood be both healthy and effective, and that if a williams or Rusch or Hill or Guzman is used, that they be effective.

 

Very possibly with the rookies, Cedeno and/or Murton. Perhaps if he spends on pitching and Furcal, he'll end up gambling on RF (Kearns or whomever.) But even with all the money, I don't expect he'll actually be able to cover all the bases, which might include:

Burnett for rotation,

Giles for RF,

Furcal for SS,

some non-great but solid and safer CF person,

solid veteran options at 2B in case Cedeno busts and in LF in case Murton busts, and

a solid, safe RH setup man, and

a solid, safe LH reliever also added.

 

He can't do all of that stuff. My guess is that the place where he'll compromise will be either the Burnett rotation spot, the Giles RF spot, and/or the CF spot. He may end up coming short on several of those targets.

[SouthSideRyan]

Burnett would be alright, i'd prefer Washburn though..

 

:shock:

 

Washburn isn't as overrated and is a LEFTY. I believe that we need at least one lefty in the rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Burnett but Washburn won't demand as much and probably won't want as many years as Burnett wants.

 

Why? I never understood the fascination with having a lefty in the rotation. What exactly is the point?

[jjgman21]

Pre-TJ, Burnett used to have one of the most violent and erratic windups in baseball. Think of a monkey at the zoo having a seizure as he was throwing feces at innocent observers.

 

That 's sigworthy. :jocolor:

 

even if that is true, I am simply fascinated that so many are willing to gamble on one injury riddled pitcher while trashing and waiving goodbye to the other.

 

is this just a case of the grass is always greener?

 

http://www.baseballreference.com/b/burnea.01.shtml

 

http://www.baseballreference.com/w/woodke02.shtml

 

what's the difference? I mean besides the fact that Kerry Wood averages more starts and innings per year over the course of his career?

 

(shudders thinking of Mike North saying "this AJ Burnett has never won more than 12 games in a year")

[rawaction]

Even with all the money, Hendry is going to need to do some gambling. Perhaps with a guy like Burnett; spend a bundle, hope he's both healthy and very good. Perhaps with the rotation in general: that Prior and Wood be both healthy and effective, and that if a williams or Rusch or Hill or Guzman is used, that they be effective.

 

Very possibly with the rookies, Cedeno and/or Murton. Perhaps if he spends on pitching and Furcal, he'll end up gambling on RF (Kearns or whomever.) But even with all the money, I don't expect he'll actually be able to cover all the bases, which might include:

Burnett for rotation,

Giles for RF,

Furcal for SS,

some non-great but solid and safer CF person,

solid veteran options at 2B in case Cedeno busts and in LF in case Murton busts, and

a solid, safe RH setup man, and

a solid, safe LH reliever also added.

 

He can't do all of that stuff. My guess is that the place where he'll compromise will be either the Burnett rotation spot, the Giles RF spot, and/or the CF spot. He may end up coming short on several of those targets.

 

I completely agree. But Giles for RF would completely set up the 2006 season to be a success. Everything else would be gravy. Hendry can get 2 of Giles, Furcal, Burnett, but there's only a steep dropoff from NOT getting Giles. If he does go with Furcal and Burnett, he would have to be very creative in the OF. I don't know if I trust his creativity. (Burnitz).

[SouthSideRyan]

And after reviewing the stats, Washburn will probably be the better value. Point still stands about the need for a lefty though.

[UMFan83]

I'm telling you guys, if we got Furcal, Giles and Lofton and they play relatively similar to last year, we'd have among the top 2-3 efficient offenses in baseball

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Burnett would be alright, i'd prefer Washburn though..

 

:shock:

 

Washburn isn't as overrated and is a LEFTY. I believe that we need at least one lefty in the rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Burnett but Washburn won't demand as much and probably won't want as many years as Burnett wants.

 

Having one lefty in the rotation is what led us to sign Estes for 2003.

 

Washburn's recent stat line.

2005: 3.20 ERA 274 BAA

2002-2004: 4.08 ERA, 266 BAA

 

Burnett's recent stat line.

2005: 3.44 ERA, 237 BAA

2002-2004: 3.61 ERA, 234 BAA

 

I'll take Burnett's numbers over Washburn.

[JC]

Even with all the money, Hendry is going to need to do some gambling. Perhaps with a guy like Burnett; spend a bundle, hope he's both healthy and very good. Perhaps with the rotation in general: that Prior and Wood be both healthy and effective, and that if a williams or Rusch or Hill or Guzman is used, that they be effective.

 

Very possibly with the rookies, Cedeno and/or Murton. Perhaps if he spends on pitching and Furcal, he'll end up gambling on RF (Kearns or whomever.) But even with all the money, I don't expect he'll actually be able to cover all the bases, which might include:

Burnett for rotation,

Giles for RF,

Furcal for SS,

some non-great but solid and safer CF person,

solid veteran options at 2B in case Cedeno busts and in LF in case Murton busts, and

a solid, safe RH setup man, and

a solid, safe LH reliever also added.

 

He can't do all of that stuff. My guess is that the place where he'll compromise will be either the Burnett rotation spot, the Giles RF spot, and/or the CF spot. He may end up coming short on several of those targets.

 

I completely agree. But Giles for RF would completely set up the 2006 season to be a success. Everything else would be gravy. Hendry can get 2 of Giles, Furcal, Burnett, but there's only a steep dropoff from NOT getting Giles. If he does go with Furcal and Burnett, he would have to be very creative in the OF. I don't know if I trust his creativity. (Burnitz).

 

Join. Its unconscionable to me that Hendry hasn't thrown up the full court press for Giles.

[hawkeyecub]

Burnett would be alright, i'd prefer Washburn though..

 

:shock:

 

Washburn isn't as overrated and is a LEFTY. I believe that we need at least one lefty in the rotation. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Burnett but Washburn won't demand as much and probably won't want as many years as Burnett wants.

 

Having one lefty in the rotation is what led us to sign Estes for 2003.

 

Washburn's recent stat line.

2005: 3.20 ERA 274 BAA

2002-2004: 4.08 ERA, 266 BAA

 

Burnett's recent stat line.

2005: 3.44 ERA, 237 BAA

2002-2004: 3.61 ERA, 234 BAA

 

I'll take Burnett's numbers over Washburn.

 

I agree that I'd rather have Burnett, but those numbers don't tell the whole story.

From 2002-2004 Washburn had 86 starts, Burnett had 55 starts. Washburn threw an extra 202 innings over that frame. And while there is a big gap in BAA, Washburn's OBPA is only 9 points higher due to a lot fewer walks. Burnett does have the big advantage in slugging against and strikeouts though.

 

Obviously Burnett is much more talented and when healthy is better. Also if we're going to spend on another SP I would prefer to just go big rather than settling for someone like Washburn who will still cost you $6M or more. So I guess I don't know why I wasted my time with all of that other than to point out the obvious differences in staying healthy and that BAA isn't all that pertinent in this sense when used by itself.

[craig]

...But even with all the money, I don't expect he'll actually be able to cover all the bases, which might include:

Burnett for rotation,

Giles for RF,

Furcal for SS,

some non-great but solid and safer CF person,

solid veteran options at 2B in case Cedeno busts and in LF in case Murton busts, and

a solid, safe RH setup man, and

a solid, safe LH reliever also added.

 

He can't do all of that stuff. My guess is that the place where he'll compromise will be either the Burnett rotation spot, the Giles RF spot, and/or the CF spot. He may end up coming short on several of those targets.

 

I completely agree. But Giles for RF would completely set up the 2006 season to be a success. Everything else would be gravy. Hendry can get 2 of Giles, Furcal, Burnett, but there's only a steep dropoff from NOT getting Giles. If he does go with Furcal and Burnett, he would have to be very creative in the OF. I don't know if I trust his creativity. (Burnitz).

 

I agree. Of Furcal, Giles, and Burnett, I think Burnett is the one I'd rather sacrifice. If you don't get Giles, it's easy to imagine a situation where the offense will be very mediocre, and even with excellent pitching to struggle to win above .500. I think the potential difference between Giles and Jacque Jones or Giles and Austen Kearns may be larger than the gap between Burnett and Williams, for example.

 

That said, there is the age thing, and Hendry does like to go younger. If you did sign Furcal and Burnett, put Cedeno and Murton in, and get Kearns (for example) in right, you'd have zero aging players in the lineup. That would provide a roster in which Maddux was the only one of the main 15 guys where any age-based decline would be expected in the next several years. Everybody else should project to remain at peak or improve nearer to peak. If you did that and the gamble (Kearns, for example) worked out solidly, you'd really be set up nicely.

[CubfaninCA]

In regard to no "full-court press" for Giles, perhaps Furcal and Burnett have genuine interest. The Cubs may be pretty far down the list for Giles. GM's only have so much time in a day to negotiate. Gotta be practical.

[Banedon]

Join. Its unconscionable to me that Hendry hasn't thrown up the full court press for Giles.

 

Maybe Hendry is going "under the radar" with Giles???

[USSoccer]

Join. Its unconscionable to me that Hendry hasn't thrown up the full court press for Giles.

 

Maybe Hendry is going "under the radar" with Giles???

 

Let's hope so. It could very well be that Giles is a main target, and the press hasn't gotten wind of it yet.

[CubinNY]

Join. Its unconscionable to me that Hendry hasn't thrown up the full court press for Giles.

 

Maybe Hendry is going "under the radar" with Giles???

 

Let's hope so. It could very well be that Giles is a main target, and the press hasn't gotten wind of it yet.

 

Just to add to the hijack--> I don't understand why Hendry isn't all over Giles. He would be the perfect fit, much more so than either Furcal or Burnett.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

we're not getting Furcal, Burnett, and Giles. It's a longshot to get two of the three.