Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[JunkyardWalrus]

Happ isn't serious answer for a contending team without a starting rotation.

What COF are interesting in trade?

Does Nico have a NTC? 

[mk49]

9 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Happ isn't serious answer for a contending team without a starting rotation.

What COF are interesting in trade?

Does Nico have a NTC? 

A team without a rotation shouldn't be contending.😁

I've read a few mentioned trading for Kwan.

Yes, Nico has the NTC. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Lawrence Butler has been mentioned but his home/road splits are terrifying. 

[Bertz]

Ian Happ was the 30th best OFer in baseball this year we don't need to pretend he's suddenly unplayable

[Tryptamine]

54 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ian Happ was the 30th best OFer in baseball this year we don't need to pretend he's suddenly unplayable

Who is saying that? I'm saying,  I don't really want to pay him 23M for what he does.

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

So perhaps a bit of a hot take, but I'm starting to lean towards not giving Ian a QO. It seems crazy to throw 23M at a platoon COF. How many strictly platoon players make 20+M a year? I guess he's at least on the right side of the platoon so he'd still probably see 400-450 PAs, but still.....

Reds or maybe even Philly will make him a good offer

[Bertz]

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Who is saying that? I'm saying,  I don't really want to pay him 23M for what he does.

Oh totally there's a reasonable conversation to be had about Happ but stuff like this feels over the top

1 hour ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Happ isn't serious answer for a contending team without a starting rotation.

What COF are interesting in trade?

Does Nico have a NTC? 

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Reds or maybe even Philly will make him a good offer

I imagine Philly goes all in on Seiya

[squally1313]

There's obviously a difference in 'should we pay someone else's free agent $23m a year to be a platoon outfielder,' because those deals are almost inevitably multi-year, and 'should we pay a guy $23m for one year to be a platoon outfielder'. In his worst year in a long time, 2.6 fWAR is worth $20m at least. Matt Shaw and/or Pedro Ramirez would almost assuredly be worse. It's fine. 

 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There's obviously a difference in 'should we pay someone else's free agent $23m a year to be a platoon outfielder,' because those deals are almost inevitably multi-year, and 'should we pay a guy $23m for one year to be a platoon outfielder'. In his worst year in a long time, 2.6 fWAR is worth $20m at least. Matt Shaw and/or Pedro Ramirez would almost assuredly be worse. It's fine. 

 

Agreed. Maybe $23M is a slight overpay if he has the same season as last year. But he is 32. It could have just been a bad season. On a one year deal with another contract coming after the ‘27 season we very well could see another 3.5-3.9WAR season out of him. And if not, the Cubs overpaid him by a few million for one season. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Happ's market could be way better next year if he bounces back. The 2028 OF class is even more brutal than this year.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Happ's market could be way better next year if he bounces back. The 2028 OF class is even more brutal than this year.

And he would be a FA without the QO attached. Which is why, if offered, he would probably take it. I just don’t think him taking it is that terrible an outcome for the Cubs. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Ian Happ was the 30th best OFer in baseball this year we don't need to pretend he's suddenly unplayable

Happ's wRC+ against RHP was 127, the same as ever year the last several years.  He hasn't regressed and just had really bad year vs LHP, which is subject to small sample size variation.

That said, he is entering the typical age regression years.  On a shorter deal id take him back in a second.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Before last season he never had that crazy of a platoon split. I mean he was always worse RH but last season seems like an aberration 

He had around 145 PA vs LHP last year. Hard for anyone to draw conclusions based on that sample size.  Unless you could drill down and see a big dip in bat speed batting RH or something else physical.

[Outshined_One]

I also feel like a good chunk of the board is still stuck in the 90s when it comes to salary figures.

$20m no longer buys you the best player in baseball. It gets you an above average hitter, which is pretty much what Happ is.

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Happ's wRC+ against RHP was 127, the same as ever year the last several years.  He hasn't regressed and just had really bad year vs LHP, which is subject to small sample size variation.

That said, he is entering the typical age regression years.  On a shorter deal id take him back in a second.

re: the 'hometown discount' talks, I would also take a 3-5 year deal on a reduced AAV (with the reduction from the QO number getting steeper the longer the deal goes). I can't imagine the Cubs even not wanting/needing an average/above average COF bat against RHP, especially one that should hold up reasonably well defensively. 

[Tryptamine]

48 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There's obviously a difference in 'should we pay someone else's free agent $23m a year to be a platoon outfielder,' because those deals are almost inevitably multi-year, and 'should we pay a guy $23m for one year to be a platoon outfielder'. In his worst year in a long time, 2.6 fWAR is worth $20m at least. Matt Shaw and/or Pedro Ramirez would almost assuredly be worse. It's fine. 

 

Pedro played at 2.2 fWAR pace, I'd rather have 2.2 at league minimum then 2.6 at 23M when resources are limited. Take that extra 22M and throw it at SP/RP. 

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Pedro played at 2.2 fWAR pace, I'd rather have 2.2 at league minimum then 2.6 at 23M when resources are limited. Take that extra 22M and throw it at SP/RP. 

Ramirez had a wOBA that was 10 points worse and an xwOBA that was 29 points worse. I know their career trend lines are going in different directions, but unless we think he's somehow going to be a significantly superior defensive outfielder, it's hard to paint the picture of Ramirez being a roughly equivalent corner outfielder. 

That's kinda the general problem and/or opportunity with Shaw and Ramirez. Definitely projectible as valuable infielders, especially factoring in salary. Maybe falls apart when you try to slot them into premium offensive positions. 

Edited 23 hours ago by squally1313

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Lawrence Butler has been mentioned but his home/road splits are terrifying. 

They're stark, but I'm not sure they're meaningful. His launch angle in games away from Sacramento last year was 3.3 (13.3 at home). His ISO was .200 points higher at home. He had a 4.4% barrel rate away from Sacramento and a 12.3% barrel rate at home. This isn't something that the field is creating, it's likely just a weird sample size where Butler just didn't hit well away from Sacramento and didn't swing well. He had a better EV away from home, his hard hit rate was the same, and his max ev was the same. If he were taking advantage of a short porch, I think we could worry. Instead, this just feels like a weird sample set.

Something clicked for Butler again last year. Post ASB, over 255 PAs, he posted a 136 wRC+. The BABIP was a bit high, but the xWOBA was still over .350. He's definitely more of a DH than anything and definitely split heavy. But if you're looking for what should be a fairly cheap, platoon DH? You're probably in the right ballpark with Butler.

[Brian707]

The 1st offseason move should be launching Matt Shaw into the sun.

[Gjfificifjdej]

2 hours ago, Brian707 said:

The 1st offseason move should be launching Matt Shaw into the sun.

Admittedly haven’t looked at any numbers on him so this all anecdotal, but he seemed to be a lot worse in year two. Obviously made some questionable decisions off the field but now he plays fundamentally unintelligent baseball on the field. 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Admittedly haven’t looked at any numbers on him so this all anecdotal, but he seemed to be a lot worse in year two. Obviously made some questionable decisions off the field but now he plays fundamentally unintelligent baseball on the field. 

Anecdotally, I think there are definitely plays that stick out (I.E. his crappy ass bunt). In terms of on the field value, he was roughly as good as he was in 2025 as 2026. In 2025 he was worth 1.5 fWAR but did so in over 400 PA's. In 2026 he was worth about half of that in about half of the PA's. The reason he played less is that he was hurt, and while I usually say "we can't just extrapolate fWAR" I'm more willing here because Shaw moved positions and it most lines up with last year.

I have no loyalty to Shaw myself. As a player he has value currently with a strong glove and good numbers against LHP. Upside against RHP is still there. As a human, I have little love for his off the field stuff. Sadly, I think there's a decent number of baseball players who have values off the field that don't align with mine, but Shaw definitely is more obvious with his. That said, the Cubs can't just punt everyone with bad values for free, and if there isn't a good move for him (another team values him properly) he's going to be here and the team needs to find the best use for him.

[Bertz]

Shaw's bat speed went up as the season went on, and anecdotally it felt like he really figured out his ideal approach (for stuff hard and up shoot it into the RCF gap, for stuff soft and low golf it right down the line).  He also looked really good in the OF after his rough April.

Dude's a horsefeathers and a dope but I do think he's probably a good player and from a field of play perspective feel comfortable assuming he'll be the primary in one of the COF spots.

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

That said, the Cubs can't just punt everyone with bad values for free, and if there isn't a good move for him (another team values him properly) he's going to be here and the team needs to find the best use for him.

(Pulls up midterm predictions)

Seems like he'd be a great fit for the Cardinals, Rays, Marlins or Royals,  and hopefully that's it.

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

(Pulls up midterm predictions)

Seems like he'd be a great fit for the Cardinals, Rays, Marlins or Royals,  and hopefully that's it.

You know he'd turn into Scott horsefeathers Rolen the moment he was traded to STL.  In other words: