Cubs (Gausman) vs Padres (Pivetta): Wild Card Game 2, 9:00pm CST

[Geographyhater8888]

2 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I didn't think the Cubs would win but didn't expect them to be that bad. I don't even wanna watch the rest of the playoffs anymore. That'll probably change in a couple days but ughhhh...

This has been a reoccurring theme in the playoffs in nearly every series they’ve been eliminated in outside of the LDS last year, and they only scored 6 total runs in 3 games against the Padres last year. They can’t hit past game 162 outside of 2015-2016, and scored only 8 runs against the Mets in the LCS at that. It’s strange how uncompetitive they are in the playoffs year after year and especially how often the bats go limp.

[s2obed]

15 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I don't ever wanna hear home field doesn't matter. A team full of vets looked frightened out there. Couldn't hit low 90s fastballs middle middle. Challenging pitches and plays out of sheer panic and desperation. They were defeated after that 1st inning on game 1. 

Home field advantage absolutely matters. Especially when you horsefeathers the bed in the last week + of the regular season to lose home field. It got to their heads man. 

[mul21]

6 minutes ago, s2obed said:

3-0 and 3-1 my friend.

If I know the team is struggling with the bats, I'm not taking the bat off my shoulders until it's 3-2 lol

The 3-0 pitch was the only strike he saw in the at bat and I said it at the time that I hated it being an automatic take because he chases so much.  He swung at ball 4 twice on 3-1 and 3-2.

[s2obed]

Just now, mul21 said:

The 3-0 pitch was the only strike he saw in the at bat and I said it at the time that I hated it being an automatic take because he chases so much.  He swung at ball 4 twice on 3-1 and 3-2.

You're right, had that wrong. My bad. 

[UMFan83]

Everyone is talking about offseason this morning, but Im having a hard time really caring due to having no idea when the next game will be played and no idea what the new CBA will look like.  Wake me up when the lockout is over and we can look forward to a season.

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Everyone is talking about offseason this morning, but Im having a hard time really caring due to having no idea when the next game will be played and no idea what the new CBA will look like.  Wake me up when the lockout is over and we can look forward to a season.

I think that's an overblown fear.  The owners don't make any money if games aren't played, so I can't see anything lasting too long if there are any games lost at all.

[BigSlick]

This was a really dumb season. I’m not even mad at Hoyer that much. Anything that could go wrong in the pitching staff, went wrong. There’s only so much you can plan for.

Obviously, PCA’s season was historic and magical and I’ll always treasure that. And the best thing I can say beyond that is they managed to surpass 2005 in making sure they at least made the playoffs. But woof. Not fun.

my experience is at least partly colored by the fact I had to watch a 5 run lead blown and a 3 run lead blown in person. 

[UMFan83]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think that's an overblown fear.  The owners don't make any money if games aren't played, so I can't see anything lasting too long if there are any games lost at all.

If they think what they're fighting for is worth more to them in the long term they'll suffer the short term losses IMO.  They're all billionaires, they'll be fine.  The players who have a 5-15 year period to build generational wealth will be feeling it more, but the union can usually get them to stand strong for at least a little while.  I realize it was over 30 years ago at this point and a lot of circumstances are different but its not like its unprecedented.

But either way, there will be some sort of lockout whether it affects games, and its hard for me to focus on how the Cubs should build their roster not knowing the variables that will be in play.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

This was a really dumb season. I’m not even mad at Hoyer that much. Anything that could go wrong in the pitching staff, went wrong. There’s only so much you can plan for.

Obviously, PCA’s season was historic and magical and I’ll always treasure that. And the best thing I can say beyond that is they managed to surpass 2005 in making sure they at least made the playoffs. But woof. Not fun.

my experience is at least partly colored by the fact I had to watch a 5 run lead blown and a 3 run lead blown in person. 

I have a hard time determining how much fault Jed deserves for the pitching.  Yes he absolutely expected to have Horton all season and Steele half the season.  He didn't know yet that Brown would show TOR caliber performance but expected him to be available all year.    If you add them to the pitching options you have Steele, Horton, Brown, Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Cabrera, Assad, Wicks and Rea as starting options.  Cabrera hasn't worked out, that's on Jed for making the move, Assad, Wicks and Rea were fringe rotation options at best.  Taillon fell off a cliff.  But there was depth there theoretically.

Conversely when you were relying on a player returning from TJS, a young pitcher with a history littered with injuries, a pitcher who missed half of the previous season with a mysterious neck injury that you were never able to fully diagnose, you are introducing a ton of risk, and that risk blew up in the worst way possible.

In terms of the pen, people say that Jed avoided spending on the pen but he actually did spend a bit more in FA than he normally does on RPs.  He may have identified the wrong ones but giving $20m to Maton, $13m to Harvey, $10m to Thielbar, $4m to Webb, is not nothing.  The problem is that Maton and Harvey got hurt most of the season, Thielbar fell off a cliff, Webb was good until he was not.  But also in general they all fit the same pitching mold that seems outdated in philosophy.

Bottom line Jed needs to take a long look in the mirror this offseason and work on overhauling the organization's pitching philosophy IMO.  I'm not an expert on pitching, but its noticeable watching other teams and then watching the Cubs that we're definitely doing something different, and the results (not just this season but the last few seasons) suggest that our approach is wrong.

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I have a hard time determining how much fault Jed deserves for the pitching.  Yes he absolutely expected to have Horton all season and Steele half the season.  He didn't know yet that Brown would show TOR caliber performance but expected him to be available all year.    If you add them to the pitching options you have Steele, Horton, Brown, Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Cabrera, Assad, Wicks and Rea as starting options.  Cabrera hasn't worked out, that's on Jed for making the move, Assad, Wicks and Rea were fringe rotation options at best.  Taillon fell off a cliff.  But there was depth there theoretically.

Conversely when you were relying on a player returning from TJS, a young pitcher with a history littered with injuries, a pitcher who missed half of the previous season with a mysterious neck injury that you were never able to fully diagnose, you are introducing a ton of risk, and that risk blew up in the worst way possible.

In terms of the pen, people say that Jed avoided spending on the pen but he actually did spend a bit more in FA than he normally does on RPs.  He may have identified the wrong ones but giving $20m to Maton, $13m to Harvey, $10m to Thielbar, $4m to Webb, is not nothing.  The problem is that Maton and Harvey got hurt most of the season, Thielbar fell off a cliff, Webb was good until he was not.  But also in general they all fit the same pitching mold that seems outdated in philosophy.

Bottom line Jed needs to take a long look in the mirror this offseason and work on overhauling the organization's pitching philosophy IMO.  I'm not an expert on pitching, but its noticeable watching other teams and then watching the Cubs that we're definitely doing something different, and the results (not just this season but the last few seasons) suggest that our approach is wrong.

Mainly this, yes, there were a freakish amount of injuries something no organization can plan for or handle, but, bottom line there's needs to be a shift in philosophy.

[Andy]

38 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think that's an overblown fear.  The owners don't make any money if games aren't played, so I can't see anything lasting too long if there are any games lost at all.

Not entirely true. The Athletic recently reported that the owners negotiated a provision into the TV deals that they get the money for 2027 even if no games are played. (In exchange, the deals would add another year at no charge to the networks, but that would inevitably be renegotiated.)

[Stratos]

38 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think that's an overblown fear.  The owners don't make any money if games aren't played, so I can't see anything lasting too long if there are any games lost at all.

Yeah.  Hard to see losing more than a month of games, and probably less.   I can't see either side being willing to lose i e. half a season.

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, Andy said:

Not entirely true. The Athletic recently reported that the owners negotiated a provision into the TV deals that they get the money for 2027 even if no games are played. (In exchange, the deals would add another year at no charge to the networks, but that would inevitably be renegotiated.)

It's a percentage as far as I'm aware (so not full revenue), plus if you look at a team like the Cubs, they pull over $2 million just from ticket sales every game and I'd bet you can double that (at a minimum) for concession sales.  They're more than covering payroll just from game days before we even get to any TV money, so I don't think we should pretend the owners are unconcerned about lost games because even if they'll be fine, we know these greedy turds love nothing more than money they can't possibly spend in their lifetimes.

[Stratos]

20 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I have a hard time determining how much fault Jed deserves for the pitching. 

Bottom line Jed needs to take a long look in the mirror this offseason and work on overhauling the organization's pitching philosophy IMO.  I'm not an expert on pitching, but its noticeable watching other teams and then watching the Cubs that we're definitely doing something different, and the results (not just this season but the last few seasons) suggest that our approach is wrong.

I think bottom line is the 3 best arms in the org were on the IL, plus some key bullpen signings were hurt too, among other injuries. They got 3 good arms at the deadline but when your rotation and pen is gutted from injury it's difficult to recover..  In 2016 they got Chapman to improve the team, but this deadline they were trying to plug holes from injury.

The team trended poorly going into the playoffs.  Their best hitter was hurt etc.  horsefeathers happens.  If you want to win a ring things need to go right and we just had a lot of bad luck/ timing.

Jed decided to put the money into the offense. He spent big on Bregman instead of an ace pitcher like Cease and given how pitchers get injured these days I think he made the right call.  Steele, Horton, Brown getting hurt isn't their fault.  Horton was always an arm injury waiting to happen but considering the other picks after him in that draft they took the risky high upside over someone with no standout tools like Brooks Lee.

 

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Steele, Horton, Brown getting hurt isn't their fault.  Horton was always an arm injury waiting to happen

But that's kind of my point.  Steele was returning from TJS, Horton already had TJS and had elbow/forearm issues at the end of last season, and while recovered Brown's neck injury was never fully understood so its not necessarily a surprise that it popped up again.  Is it bad luck that 3 of those things blew up on Jed?  Sure.  But it should have been part of the risk calculus heading into the season given their histories.  You can't rely on several pitchers with serious injury histories and then throw your hands up and say "bad luck, what could I have done?" when they all get hurt.

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

But that's kind of my point.  Steele was returning from TJS, Horton already had TJS and had elbow/forearm issues at the end of last season, and while recovered Brown's neck injury was never fully understood so its not necessarily a surprise that it popped up again.  Is it bad luck that 3 of those things blew up on Jed?  Sure.  But it should have been part of the risk calculus heading into the season given their histories.  You can't rely on several pitchers with serious injury histories and then throw your hands up and say "bad luck, what could I have done?" when they all get hurt.

But when you combine that with Boyd's knee, Cabrera's blisters/hamstring/ineffectiveness, Shota's HR problems and the myriad problems the pen had, I'm not sure it's possible to build enough redundancy to withstand all that. Like, who predicts Maton's knee falls apart or Milner gets appendicitis? Also, Brown got through the 2025 season without the neck causing problems, so I'm not sure you can really look at that one and think it was likely to reoccur.

[SpongeWorthy]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I have a hard time determining how much fault Jed deserves for the pitching.  Yes he absolutely expected to have Horton all season and Steele half the season.  He didn't know yet that Brown would show TOR caliber performance but expected him to be available all year.    If you add them to the pitching options you have Steele, Horton, Brown, Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Cabrera, Assad, Wicks and Rea as starting options.  Cabrera hasn't worked out, that's on Jed for making the move, Assad, Wicks and Rea were fringe rotation options at best.  Taillon fell off a cliff.  But there was depth there theoretically.

Conversely when you were relying on a player returning from TJS, a young pitcher with a history littered with injuries, a pitcher who missed half of the previous season with a mysterious neck injury that you were never able to fully diagnose, you are introducing a ton of risk, and that risk blew up in the worst way possible.

In terms of the pen, people say that Jed avoided spending on the pen but he actually did spend a bit more in FA than he normally does on RPs.  He may have identified the wrong ones but giving $20m to Maton, $13m to Harvey, $10m to Thielbar, $4m to Webb, is not nothing.  The problem is that Maton and Harvey got hurt most of the season, Thielbar fell off a cliff, Webb was good until he was not.  But also in general they all fit the same pitching mold that seems outdated in philosophy.

Bottom line Jed needs to take a long look in the mirror this offseason and work on overhauling the organization's pitching philosophy IMO.  I'm not an expert on pitching, but its noticeable watching other teams and then watching the Cubs that we're definitely doing something different, and the results (not just this season but the last few seasons) suggest that our approach is wrong.

idk, i don't think correctly divvying up the 2026 pitching blame pie matters all that much. jed has been here a long time and he hasn't been good enough. 

[Wilson A2000]

 

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

 You can't rely on several pitchers with serious injury histories and then throw your hands up and say "bad luck, what could I have done?" when they all get hurt.

The difficulty with this sentiment is nearly every worthwhile pitcher in MLB has a serious injury history.

Some teams do a better job of managing pitcher health than others, but guys who reach the majors without having undergone some major surgical procedure on their elbow and/or shoulder are veritable unicorns.

[muntjack]

2 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

That was a good booth, and J.D. was the best of them.  I really don't want to ever lose him. 

 

[BigSlick]

Basically I think one philosophical thing about baseball that has maintained throughout the years: it's much, much more sustainable and predictable to get arms through your system than through free agency/trades/whatever. That's also certainly true of position players (it's true of everything), but it's less of an issue. You can sign some hitter and he's probably gonna be who he always was. We were pretty damned worried about Bregman more than halfway through the season, and then he ends up being Bregman.

Pitchers just blow up and die on you. The money/assets are super risky on them. If you just plan for most of them to blow up anyway, you want the youngest, cheapest pipeline going. And they have no horsefeathers pipeline man. 

Edited 21 hours ago by BigSlick

[We Got The Whole 9]

This is crazy, right? 

 

Since 2017 the Cubs have hit 179/256/299 in the playoffs. 

 

Hell, Including 2016  the Cubs offense has hit 204/273/344 in the postseason

 

This is not normal right? Like we know hitting is harder but is this much of a fall-off normal? It's absolutely astounding how bad they are in the playoffs. 

 

Google says they are 223/293/377 in my lifetime (1980) 🫠

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

This is crazy, right? 

 

Since 2017 the Cubs have hit 179/256/299 in the playoffs. 

 

Hell, Including 2016  the Cubs offense has hit 204/273/344 in the postseason

 

This is not normal right? Like we know hitting is harder but is this much of a fall-off normal? It's absolutely astounding how bad they are in the playoffs. 

 

Google says they are 223/293/377 in my lifetime (1980) 🫠

i used ai as well but it says the overall slash line of all playoff teams since 1980 is .240/.315/.395. so below average but I wouldn't call it abnormal either