Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[bukie]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

This isn't necessarily a counter, but am I reading it right that there have been 3 games since August 21st where the Cubs didn't have a lead?

That is correct, and why stats like these can be misleading, because you have to have a lead to blow it.

[bukie]

I don't think a lot of folks appreciate how good the Cubs have been offensively and defensively.

For example, they are so far ahead of the field right now in combined team fWAR that if you took PCA out of the equation entirely, they would still lead the league in fWAR.

[Geographyhater8888]

The SHTH after Swanson’s injury. The 2 could be related.

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, bukie said:

I don't think a lot of folks appreciate how good the Cubs have been offensively and defensively.

For example, they are so far ahead of the field right now in combined team fWAR that if you took PCA out of the equation entirely, they would still lead the league in fWAR.

Bregman sitting at 88 RBI and Suzuki at 81, don't think Bregman will get to 100 but, 90+ is almost certainly going to happen.  Suzuki getting to 90 would be great as well.

[ILMindState]

10 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Our bullpen is not just bad, it’s more that recently it has been the worst in baseball. And what’s even worse is we don’t have one trustworthy person to forecast into high leverage playoff situations.  

If the bullpen was just simply "bad but at least we have 1 guy" then I'd feel a little more confident in the playoffs. 2016 was basically all Chapmam once Strop and Rondon got hurt. But we're worst in the majors/giving up HRs at a near historic rate type of bad. It could be enough to get past the Phillies but you're not gonna get past the Brewers and or Dodgers with that. Brewers completely destroy our pitching. ATL on the road and then Dodgers in 5 might actually be a better match up for us. It's probably time to start giving PCA, Bregman, Suzuki, and Nico some rest whether it's DH or a day off. Need them fresh for the playoffs. 

[Gjfificifjdej]

If the bullpen could just improve to bad instead of historically bad that would be a game changer. 

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep. They are good. The sad part of this is, even good, winning a WS is hard. Most likely they won’t. And when they won’t the naysayers will be all over it about how they knew they couldn’t win because of…… pick the reason.
I have seen the excuse that when they get to the playoffs they won’t hit good pitching. Excuse 1 ready to go.

The pen is so bad they can’t hold a lead. Excuse 2, ready.

No starting pitching. Excuse 3 also ready.

CC is a terrible manager and cost the Cubs the series. Excuse #4
In the end, whatever goes wrong will be what the naysayers KNEW all along. But the reality is they can win. But so can several other teams. Which is why it is hard to win a WS. 

 

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

99.9% playoff odds. Though the goalposts have apparently moved from 'we're going to miss the playoffs' to 'we can't beat either of the two best teams in baseball in the NLDS' so that's fun. The important thing is to never admit they're good. 

You guys are doing the “well people are saying” thing now. Look hard enough (and sometimes you don’t have to look that hard) and you can find people who believe and say just about anything. 

I can only speak for myself, by my belief on the Cubs comes with the caveat of “baseball gonna baseball” sometimes. My belief is that with our pitching staff, even with how good the position players are, it’s going to be really hard to win 4 playoff rounds in a row. I don’t buy the pitching wins championships thing. But I think you need balance. You’re going to have to win games in different ways in the playoffs and overall, we have one way to win a game, which is to score a bunch of runs. Does that mean we can’t or won’t win a 1-0 or 2-1 game? Or that our pitching will give up 6 runs every game? Of course not. Want to discount the Phillies for the same reason? That’s fine! If the Phillies got brought up because of me, I just named the team we’re most likely to play in the WC round, not because I’m terrified of the Phillies. 

[Derwood]

Shota in 3 starts in September: 18 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 16 K's, 2 BB, 4 ER, 2.00 ERA

[UMFan83]

Not that we're worried about simply making the playoffs anymore, but for the first time (I believe) all season, the Cubs have entered the day with 99.9% playoff odds per fangraphs.  It was 99.8% ~2 weeks ago, dipped to around 96% and slowly has been making its way back up.

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Shota in 3 starts in September: 18 IP, 12 H, 1 HR, 16 K's, 2 BB, 4 ER, 2.00 ERA

He was sliding into the same pattern as last season - effective for bit then flowed into un-pitchable by the PS.  Good to see him turning around.

[Derwood]

Just now, gflore34 said:

He was sliding into the same pattern as last season - effective for bit then flowed into un-pitchable by the PS.  Good to see him turning around.

Maybe he really was tipping his pitches and the coaching staff has figured out how to prevent it

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

giving up HRs at a near historic rate type of bad

I'm not totally sure how this whole 'most games with a home run given up' thing caught traction. It's a really hard stat to track down in terms of historic data, but I don't doubt whatever has been thrown out there (though if someone says it was AI then I will absolutely doubt it). But just to put a number on this, the Cubs are on pace to give up the 19th most home runs as a team since 2000. Certainly terrible, but I wouldn't call it 'historic' in the way that, say, the offense or PCA is performing. 

[bukie]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Not that we're worried about simply making the playoffs anymore, but for the first time (I believe) all season, the Cubs have entered the day with 99.9% playoff odds per fangraphs.  It was 99.8% ~2 weeks ago, dipped to around 96% and slowly has been making its way back up.

Or in simpler terms, they were never in danger of missing the playoffs.

[bukie]

One other thing to note about the playoffs is that pitching gets optimized for everyone, with more days off between games and a generally spaced out schedule. If you can find 4 good starters and 4 good relievers, that should pretty much carry you through the postseason barring injuries.

So what do the Cubs have? Well, I think they have the 4 good starters nailed down in Gausman, Holmes, Boyd and Imanaga. Relievers are a bit trickier, but I think their most reliable relievers of late have been Rollison, Zeferjahn, Civale, and then find one between Palencia, Webb, Cabrera, Peterson, Assad, Rea, or a late Steele surprise.

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

 

You guys are doing the “well people are saying” thing now. Look hard enough (and sometimes you don’t have to look that hard) and you can find people who believe and say just about anything. 

I can only speak for myself, by my belief on the Cubs comes with the caveat of “baseball gonna baseball” sometimes. My belief is that with our pitching staff, even with how good the position players are, it’s going to be really hard to win 4 playoff rounds in a row. I don’t buy the pitching wins championships thing. But I think you need balance. You’re going to have to win games in different ways in the playoffs and overall, we have one way to win a game, which is to score a bunch of runs. Does that mean we can’t or won’t win a 1-0 or 2-1 game? Or that our pitching will give up 6 runs every game? Of course not. Want to discount the Phillies for the same reason? That’s fine! If the Phillies got brought up because of me, I just named the team we’re most likely to play in the WC round, not because I’m terrified of the Phillies. 

This is all fair. Probably painting with a broad brush, though I was particularly annoyed yesterday as we were watching (another) historic PCA performance, scoring a bunch of runs, and, most importantly to me, winning a three game series against a really good NL East team. Like....that was it, that was the path. And yet we threw Webb into a clearly low leverage position to try and get him right, he gave up a couple runs, and it was just endless 'well obviously this can't be successful' as I'm staring at a 5 run lead in the scorebug. 

We've given up more than 4 runs once in the last six games. The Brewers in the 7 games against us averaged a little under 6 runs, we held them to 4 or less 4 of the 7 times. The Brewers are really good, it's going to be tough if we play them. The Phillies aren't. 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm not totally sure how this whole 'most games with a home run given up' thing caught traction. It's a really hard stat to track down in terms of historic data, but I don't doubt whatever has been thrown out there (though if someone says it was AI then I will absolutely doubt it). But just to put a number on this, the Cubs are on pace to give up the 19th most home runs as a team since 2000. Certainly terrible, but I wouldn't call it 'historic' in the way that, say, the offense or PCA is performing. 

Also re: homeruns there's almost certainly a bit of park factor going on.  It's not an accident that the hitting is lapping the field (in a good way) at the same exact time and the pitching is lapping the field (in a bad way).

[macarthur31]

Cubs got 9 games left to optimize the lineup, starters and bullpen.  For me, that's:

• Get Dansby enough reps so he's back to being the elite shortstop and tough 8/9 hitter.
• Get Busch closer to May (.300/.446/.510) rather than what September has been so far: (.224/.328/.408)
• Sort out the WC-round rotation.  Shota seems to be on "the podium" with his recent run of 4ER over 3 starts;  Is it Gausman, Holmes, Shota?  Can Boyd or Peterson force themselves into the picture?
• Get Seiya started up again - he's been .157/.328/.234 in September (Oy.), but in August he was .303/397/.560 (Yay.)
• Get Zef, Danny and Webb trending in the right direction.  
• See if Cabrera is up for doing a cover version of Sasaki '25 Playoffs.
• Who is going to be the key pen lefty - Rolison?  Theils?  (Death is not an option.)
• Get enough ABs for Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez to stay sharp.
• Is it still Carson then Miggy in the catching platoon?  In terms of September Batting:  Carson is .237/.275/.289 in 40 PA while Miggy is .364/429/.727 in 16 PA

 

In terms of what Couns hopes to maintain:

• PCA as MVP
• Bregs as the Pippen to PCA's Jordan
• Happ/Taylor LF Platoon

 

 

 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Also re: homeruns there's almost certainly a bit of park factor going on.  It's not an accident that the hitting is lapping the field (in a good way) at the same exact time and the pitching is lapping the field (in a bad way).

Yeah I'm sure that's a good bit of it. 121 HRs and a .316 wOBA against at home v 106 HRs and a .324 wOBA against on the road.

114/97 home/away HRs for the offense, 124/106 wRC home/away

[Rcal10]

50 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

 

You guys are doing the “well people are saying” thing now. Look hard enough (and sometimes you don’t have to look that hard) and you can find people who believe and say just about anything. 

I can only speak for myself, by my belief on the Cubs comes with the caveat of “baseball gonna baseball” sometimes. My belief is that with our pitching staff, even with how good the position players are, it’s going to be really hard to win 4 playoff rounds in a row. I don’t buy the pitching wins championships thing. But I think you need balance. You’re going to have to win games in different ways in the playoffs and overall, we have one way to win a game, which is to score a bunch of runs. Does that mean we can’t or won’t win a 1-0 or 2-1 game? Or that our pitching will give up 6 runs every game? Of course not. Want to discount the Phillies for the same reason? That’s fine! If the Phillies got brought up because of me, I just named the team we’re most likely to play in the WC round, not because I’m terrified of the Phillies. 

Going one step further, it is easy to find someone who posts his beliefs one day and then a week later the exact opposite belief. Then when something happens, say how he was right about his belief. Of course he was. He had 2 exact opposite beliefs. One has to be right.

But what you said is also true. I don’t see anyone arguing it is obvious the Cubs will win the WS. I think even the positive people, like myself, understand because it is hard to win a WS, the Cubs probably won’t. For me, anyway, my argument is, they can. Not they will. I have read too much about how people feel it is impossible for them to win. 

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

Cubs got 9 games left to optimize the lineup, starters and bullpen.  For me, that's:

• Get Dansby enough reps so he's back to being the elite shortstop and tough 8/9 hitter.
• Get Busch closer to May (.300/.446/.510) rather than what September has been so far: (.224/.328/.408)
• Sort out the WC-round rotation.  Shota seems to be on "the podium" with his recent run of 4ER over 3 starts;  Is it Gausman, Holmes, Shota?  Can Boyd or Peterson force themselves into the picture?
• Get Seiya started up again - he's been .157/.328/.234 in September (Oy.), but in August he was .303/397/.560 (Yay.)
• Get Zef, Danny and Webb trending in the right direction.  
• See if Cabrera is up for doing a cover version of Sasaki '25 Playoffs.
• Who is going to be the key pen lefty - Rolison?  Theils?  (Death is not an option.)
• Get enough ABs for Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez to stay sharp.
• Is it still Carson then Miggy in the catching platoon?  In terms of September Batting:  Carson is .237/.275/.289 in 40 PA while Miggy is .364/429/.727 in 16 PA

 

In terms of what Couns hopes to maintain:

• PCA as MVP
• Bregs as the Pippen to PCA's Jordan
• Happ/Taylor LF Platoon

 

 

 

This feels mostly on the money.  I think the other thing is rest.  For instance the Cubs have not had a reliever work back to back days in about a week.  I suspect they are hoping to keep that rolling through the end of the season.  But how much are they willing to break it to keep the Phillies off their heels?  Position player side I assume they take a lighter touch with these two off days in quick succession.  Probably just run a hangover lineup the day after clinching and leave it at that?

The rotation is interesting, and we probably don't know until Tuesday.  With the off days they're free to painlessly shuffle things how they want.  Presumably the top 3 playoff starters will go Wed/Thur/Friday next week to line them up for the WC round.  The guy lined up for Game 1 of the DS will pitch Tuesday/Sunday? 

I agree it feels like Shota's primed to be that #3 guy.  His issue is the 3rd time through the order,  In a win or go home you're pulling a guy at the first sign of trouble anyway, and maybe even proactively pulling a guy after 18 batters.  Shota's weakness dovetails well with playoff usage patterns.

[ILMindState]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Going one step further, it is easy to find someone who posts his beliefs one day and then a week later the exact opposite belief. Then when something happens, say how he was right about his belief. Of course he was. He had 2 exact opposite beliefs. One has to be right.

But what you said is also true. I don’t see anyone arguing it is obvious the Cubs will win the WS. I think even the positive people, like myself, understand because it is hard to win a WS, the Cubs probably won’t. For me, anyway, my argument is, they can. Not they will. I have read too much about how people feel it is impossible for them to win. 

I’m actually usually pretty positive haha. The constant home runs and blown saves from the pitching has just completely removed any expectations I have for this team.

[Rcal10]

I don’t understand how the Phillies can have a pitching WAR of 29 and the Cubs team WAR is less than 2, while the Phillies have given up 24 less runs than the Cubs. To me, that means WAR is a flawed way to determine how many runs a team will give up. I get it as a tool to evaluate a staffs potential. However, when you factor in the defense the pitcher is pitching in front of, the ability for a team to prevent runs is more important to me. The Cubs prevent runs around leave average. Just a little worse than league average. The Phillies prevent runs just a little better than league average. So why isn’t that the focus, and not pitching staffs WAR? Why is a very slightly below league average staff suddenly going to give up 6 runs a game to average offenses? They still pitch in front of that elite defense. 
Cubs offense, or ability to score runs is far greater than the Phillies. For that matter, not just the Phillies. Better than any team they meet in the post season. I break it down to the Cubs have a great offense, great defense and slightly below average at preventing runs. Staff might suck, but great defense brings it all the way up to just slightly below average. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I’m actually usually pretty positive haha. The constant home runs and blown saves from the pitching has just completely removed any expectations I have for this team.

To me, expectations is too strong a work. I don’t “expect” the Cubs to win the WS. I just disagree with fans who suggest there is no way they can. They are a very good, flawed, team. They deserve to be where they are and CAN beat anyone. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

To me, that means WAR is a flawed way to determine how many runs a team will give up.

This is correct as written

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This feels mostly on the money.  I think the other thing is rest.  For instance the Cubs have not had a reliever work back to back days in about a week.  I suspect they are hoping to keep that rolling through the end of the season.  But how much are they willing to break it to keep the Phillies off their heels?  Position player side I assume they take a lighter touch with these two off days in quick succession.  Probably just run a hangover lineup the day after clinching and leave it at that?

The rotation is interesting, and we probably don't know until Tuesday.  With the off days they're free to painlessly shuffle things how they want.  Presumably the top 3 playoff starters will go Wed/Thur/Friday next week to line them up for the WC round.  The guy lined up for Game 1 of the DS will pitch Tuesday/Sunday? 

I agree it feels like Shota's primed to be that #3 guy.  His issue is the 3rd time through the order,  In a win or go home you're pulling a guy at the first sign of trouble anyway, and maybe even proactively pulling a guy after 18 batters.  Shota's weakness dovetails well with playoff usage patterns.

The other reason I could see Shota going #3 in the divisional round is he probably won’t pitch against the Brewers. He is pretty bad against them. So use him 3rd and then when he comes up again, maybe it is Peterson. For that matter, if the Cubs win the first game, maybe Shota goes second. Would leave a possibility of Gausman and Boyd going the first two against Milwaukee.