Brewers (Gasser) vs Cubs (Boyd): 09/01/26, 6:40 PM

[Brock Beauchamp]

Boyd gets the ball for the Cubs tonight at Wrigley Field as Chicago hosts Gasser and the Brewers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Trent Thornton	0	29	0	13	0	42
Ryan Zeferjahn	0	0	19	0	0	19
Ryan Rolison	0	0	20	0	12	32
Jacob Webb	0	0	0	18	0	18
David Peterson	0	88	0	0	0	88
Daniel Palencia	0	15	0	0	0	15
Colin Rea	0	0	26	0	29	55
Caleb Thielbar	0	0	0	12	0	12
Aaron Civale	0	47	0	15	0	62

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cubs position players have a 2nd half wRC+ of 131 and lead WAR 13.7 to 8.6 in 2nd place. For the season we hold a 33.8 to 22.7 advantage. 

 

That's ridiculous. 

Edited 2 hours ago by We Got The Whole 9

[Outshined_One]

This better not be one of those series where they outscore the opposition by 10+ runs, and yet manage to lose the series.

[Bull]

I don't understand why the extra spot went to BJ Murray and not Assad. I would love to have Assad available tonight if Boyd just doesn't have it.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Bull said:

I don't understand why the extra spot went to BJ Murray and not Assad. I would love to have Assad available tonight if Boyd just doesn't have it.

There is a spot for a position player and a pitcher. Haven’t heard who that pitcher is yet. But Boyd has pitched 6 innings in most games this year. They may bring Assad up, but I doubt it is because they are concerned Boyd doesn’t have it and will not pitch enough innings. 

[muntjack]

Since 7/7 - fWAR MLB ranks

1. PCA

2. Alex Bregman

3. Seiya Suzuki

 

That's just bonkers. 

[Bull]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

There is a spot for a position player and a pitcher. Haven’t heard who that pitcher is yet. But Boyd has pitched 6 innings in most games this year. They may bring Assad up, but I doubt it is because they are concerned Boyd doesn’t have it and will not pitch enough innings. 

It's time to shift from how many innings he *can* pitch to how many he *should* pitch. This should be treated like a playoff series. If he gives up two home runs in the first inning, you yank him. Tell him to give max effort for one time through the order. This isn't about how many innings we can get out of these guys anymore. We had Rea in a blowout last night. we have innings, we need great innings. 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Bull said:

It's time to shift from how many innings he *can* pitch to how many he *should* pitch. This should be treated like a playoff series. If he gives up two home runs in the first inning, you yank him. 

No you don’t. There is still 24 games to go. You don’t yank Boyd for giving up a homer in the first inning. They still need innings from their starters. If it was a 3 game lead the Cubs were trying to gain on, maybe there is a little more urgency. But even they you don’t pull Boyd after one inning. Cubs just need to get in the playoffs and have a rotation set up for it. Preferably they have 3 or 4 pen arms they trust at that time. I don’t want pen arms overused for games in September when they are comfortably in a playoff spot. I would like home field in the WC round, but really the Cubs and Phillies are pretty similar, home or road. It is more important to me to have a rotation and pen set and healthy for the playoffs then it is to use guys up chasing a team they aren’t going to catch. Now, that thinking could change with a series sweep and then maybe gain another game over the weekend. But even then yiu can’t overuse the pen. 

[gflore34]

Don't really trust Boyd, he's slightly worse than Shota, Cubs haven't won a Boyd start in nearly a month.  How about flipping that tonight?

[bukie]

7 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Don't really trust Boyd, he's slightly worse than Shota, Cubs haven't won a Boyd start in nearly a month.  How about flipping that tonight?

"How to lie with vague statistics"

Last time out, he went 6 and gave up 1 ER and 5 baserunners, lost 2-0

Before that, the Cubs blew the game on a walkoff in the 10th.

Before that, he had a bad start.

Before that, he won 9 of 10 starts.

Edited 1 hour ago by bukie

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Don't really trust Boyd, he's slightly worse than Shota, Cubs haven't won a Boyd start in nearly a month.  How about flipping that tonight?

9 of his last 10 starts he want 6+ innings. 6 of those were quality starts. I know he is getting some luck baked into those numbers, but “slightly worse than Shota”? That is an overreach. He isn’t great, but he has been fine, at least results wise.

[Outshined_One]

39 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Since 7/7 - fWAR MLB ranks

1. PCA

2. Alex Bregman

3. Seiya Suzuki

 

That's just bonkers. 

There's a realistic possibility this team ends the season leading the league in offensive and defensive metrics, and yet ends up dead last in pitching metrics.

If the Cubs had even an average pitching staff, we'd be talking magic numbers for the #1 seed in the playoffs right now.

[mk49]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

9 of his last 10 starts he want 6+ innings. 6 of those were quality starts. I know he is getting some luck baked into those numbers, but “slightly worse than Shota”? That is an overreach. He isn’t great, but he has been fine, at least results wise.

I agree, relusts-wise, Boyd been fine, but since his return from the IL, his fWAR is -0.1, and he has the highest xERA and xFIP in our rotation.  Shota at least has 0.4 fWAR.  To me, they're about the same, because Boyd has pitched a little more innings.

I'm hoping both of them + Gausman will get better.

Edited 1 hour ago by mk49

[gflore34]

4 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

There's a realistic possibility this team ends the season leading the league in offensive and defensive metrics, and yet ends up dead last in pitching metrics.

If the Cubs had even an average pitching staff, we'd be talking magic numbers for the #1 seed in the playoffs right now.

As been previously stated, just get in, all it takes is someone getting hot - Cabrera, Palencia, Zeferjahns - and the Cubs could go on a run.

[mul21]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

No you don’t. There is still 24 games to go. You don’t yank Boyd for giving up a homer in the first inning. They still need innings from their starters. If it was a 3 game lead the Cubs were trying to gain on, maybe there is a little more urgency. But even they you don’t pull Boyd after one inning. Cubs just need to get in the playoffs and have a rotation set up for it. Preferably they have 3 or 4 pen arms they trust at that time. I don’t want pen arms overused for games in September when they are comfortably in a playoff spot. I would like home field in the WC round, but really the Cubs and Phillies are pretty similar, home or road. It is more important to me to have a rotation and pen set and healthy for the playoffs then it is to use guys up chasing a team they aren’t going to catch. Now, that thinking could change with a series sweep and then maybe gain another game over the weekend. But even then yiu can’t overuse the pen. 

I'd agree with you if they weren't playing the Brewers, but if there's any slim hope of actually pulling out the division, every one of these games counts double and they have to do everything they can to win them.  Having an extra arm available starting tonight helps too if they want to be really aggressive.

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I'd agree with you if they weren't playing the Brewers, but if there's any slim hope of actually pulling out the division, every one of these games counts double and they have to do everything they can to win them.  Having an extra arm available starting tonight helps too if they want to be really aggressive.

I guess if you are still clinging to some crazy hope they can catch the brewers I understand the thought process. But I have given that idea up. Too far back with too few games to play. Had they won the last 3 series, I could understand it. But even then I wouldn’t pull a pitcher after giving up 2 runs in the first inning. There is a long way to go. Besides that, who are you bringing in that you think would do much better? You are bringing in your 10th pitcher on the staff. Maybe even the 12th or 13th. You certainly aren’t using whoever they determine to be key guys. 

[PeanutPunch33]

I hope the Cubs don't wait around to extend Holmes.  I already can't imagine this team without him.  Absolute stud 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I hope the Cubs don't wait around to extend Holmes.  I already can't imagine this team without him.  Absolute stud 

I find it funny that so many people are acting like signing Holmes is strictly something the Cubs can decide to do and it will happen. This isn’t meant for you, I have seen others suggesting they have to do it. But it is a decision he has to make too. He is a FA at the end of the year. Why wouldn’t he wait to see what the market will bring him? Yes, I would like him back. But if I were him, even if I really wanted to play in Chicago, I wouks go to free agency. Cubs have no leverage. 

[Manny Trillos Brother]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I find it funny that so many people are acting like signing Holmes is strictly something the Cubs can decide to do and it will happen. This isn’t meant for you, I have seen others suggesting they have to do it. But it is a decision he has to make too. He is a FA at the end of the year. Why wouldn’t he wait to see what the market will bring him? Yes, I would like him back. But if I were him, even if I really wanted to play in Chicago, I wouks go to free agency. Cubs have no leverage. 

Because you CAN overplay your hand on free agency. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are recent examples of pitchers who asked for way more than the market was ever going to give them. The guy is a 33-year-old who has put up 9.5 WAR over almost 9 years in the bigs. That feels like someone you could do a 3/$70 type deal with. I don't think he's getting a 9-figure deal in this market, especially with the CBA uncertainty.

[PeanutPunch33]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I find it funny that so many people are acting like signing Holmes is strictly something the Cubs can decide to do and it will happen. This isn’t meant for you, I have seen others suggesting they have to do it. But it is a decision he has to make too. He is a FA at the end of the year. Why wouldn’t he wait to see what the market will bring him? Yes, I would like him back. But if I were him, even if I really wanted to play in Chicago, I wouks go to free agency. Cubs have no leverage. 

That's true, but I also think the Cubs can show some aggression here like they did with Bregman.  If they really want their guy they should be able to find a way to get it done with their resources. 

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, Bull said:

I don't understand why the extra spot went to BJ Murray and not Assad. I would love to have Assad available tonight if Boyd just doesn't have it.

Agreed, I'm very concerned that Boyd will struggle. 

[macarthur31]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I find it funny that so many people are acting like signing Holmes is strictly something the Cubs can decide to do and it will happen. This isn’t meant for you, I have seen others suggesting they have to do it. But it is a decision he has to make too. He is a FA at the end of the year. Why wouldn’t he wait to see what the market will bring him? Yes, I would like him back. But if I were him, even if I really wanted to play in Chicago, I wouks go to free agency. Cubs have no leverage. 

Understandable that going into this offseason that is uncertain w/r/t the CBA, perhaps paired with a really positive run in the playoffs he's enamored with Chicago (and the dyson vacuums behind him in the infield), and a pretty healthy SP FA market (Skubal headlines it, but you got Foster Griffin, Casey Mize, Michael King, Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty, Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Morejon...) perhaps he bites early on a contract extension.  But, man, you're likely going to have to pay for him not to go to market - as this will be Holmes last shot at a big contract. 

Scanning Spotrac projections for 2027, we're at $146.5M in guaranteed contracts.  CBT is at $244 and Tom will likely want to get back under an "reset" after going to $262M this year.  (Of course, new CBA will likely change, but just trying to play out the thought experiment). What would it take for Clay to volunteer out of the shop window?  $120M/4Y?  😬

 

 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

Understandable that going into this offseason that is uncertain w/r/t the CBA, perhaps paired with a really positive run in the playoffs he's enamored with Chicago (and the dyson vacuums behind him in the infield), and a pretty healthy SP FA market (Skubal headlines it, but you got Foster Griffin, Casey Mize, Michael King, Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty, Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Morejon...) perhaps he bites early on a contract extension.  But, man, you're likely going to have to pay for him not to go to market - as this will be Holmes last shot at a big contract. 

Scanning Spotrac projections for 2027, we're at $146.5M in guaranteed contracts.  CBT is at $244 and Tom will likely want to get back under an "reset" after going to $262M this year.  (Of course, new CBA will likely change, but just trying to play out the thought experiment). What would it take for Clay to volunteer out of the shop window?  $120M/4Y?  😬

 

 

I think that would do it. I also think he doesn’t get close to that amount. I could see 3/$70M. Something like that. If the Cubs have confident a 4th year and closer to $30M per year for him to not considered free agency, IMO, they will let him shop and maybe see if they can best the offers he has. They aren’t going 4/$120 bidding against themselves. 

[Andy]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

There is a spot for a position player and a pitcher. Haven’t heard who that pitcher is yet. But Boyd has pitched 6 innings in most games this year. They may bring Assad up, but I doubt it is because they are concerned Boyd doesn’t have it and will not pitch enough innings. 

Assad apparently can't come back up, barring an injury, for a few more days. He has to be down in Iowa for 15 days from when he got sent down.

Edited 11 minutes ago by Andy