Cubs (Boyd) vs Cardinals (May): 7/29/26, 6:45pm

[Jason Ross]

I don't advocate for losses, but Thornton getting lit up tonight might be a bit of a blessing in disguise. Take the mask off, realize he ain't it, and thank him for the 32 innings before tonight, and go trade for some help in the next few days.

[Derwood]

That was about as bad a save opportunity as you're going to see

[abuck1220]

thornton over rolison was certainly a choice 

[chibears55]

What a waste

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Brutal job by Dumpy Thornton. 

It was ****** but he gave up a GB that is an out most of the time, and another weak grounder.  The walk and the double (and falling behind Walker) were pretty ****** though

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

I'm more mad that this ruined PCA's awesome HR than actually losing the game, is there something wrong with me?

I was thinking along the same lines.  Not just that it took away PCA's game winner, but also the narrative that goes along with that.

[Rex Buckingham]

That suuuuuuucked

[Geographyhater8888]

Sickening. The fact that Trent Thornton is pitching with a 2-0 lead in the 10th inning just set shows how much work needs to be done with the pitching staff. 

[Papa Cub]

That entire game minus one hit from PCA was boring as hell - Boyd pitched well, but this one was rough overall

[mk49]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

It was ****** but he gave up a GB that is an out most of the time, and another weak grounder.  The walk and the double (and falling behind Walker) were pretty ****** though

Yeah, I agree. 

Thornton wasn't great, but the Cardinals got a bit lucky.  We should've score a run in the first 9 innings.

[abuck1220]

hopefully enough trades get done/guys get healthy that the guy with a 1/1 k/bb won’t be anywhere near a playoff roster, but that’s a brutal loss with the chance to get within 5 of the brewers right there for the taking. 

[abuck1220]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

It was ****** but he gave up a GB that is an out most of the time, and another weak grounder.  The walk and the double (and falling behind Walker) were pretty ****** though

yeah but those things happen when you strike out 3 per 9 or whatever. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

It was ****** but he gave up a GB that is an out most of the time, and another weak grounder.  The walk and the double (and falling behind Walker) were pretty ****** though

Sadly this is the life you live if you're a pitcher who cannot get strikeouts. You live by batted ball luck and die by it. 

[Rcal10]

I was hoping for Hollowell. But no guarantee he would have done any better. Also, we don’t know who was available in the pen. Maybe Hollowell was back?🤷 CC picked a guy and it didn’t work. End of story. It happens. And it happens even more when you don’t have a guy in the pen you can trust. 

[UMFan83]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Sadly this is the life you live if you're a pitcher who cannot get strikeouts. You live by batted ball luck and die by it. 

I honestly don’t know much about like 2/3rd of the bullpen so I’ll take your word on it haha. Sounds like the Cubs type

[Illiterate Scholar]

Cubs Show Their True Colors in Wednesday Night Loss to the Cardinals

/nsbb front page news

[Soul]

That sucked but meh, we beat the Cards 2/3 in their building and Brewers/Phils lost.  My sadness meter is manageable right now.

[NorthsideAvenger]

31 minutes ago, Soul said:

That sucked but meh, we beat the Cards 2/3 in their building and Brewers/Phils lost.  My sadness meter is manageable right now.

One more game in St. Louis.

[Soul]

20 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

One more game in St. Louis.

MFer that’s what I get for not checking.

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Sadly this is the life you live if you're a pitcher who cannot get strikeouts. You live by batted ball luck and die by it. 

Baseball reference says he’s good, Fangraphs says he’s bad. 2.51 ERA and a .7 bWAR versus a 4.81 FIP and a -.2 fWAR. 
I’m siding with Fangraphs on this.

Edited 4 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

7-5 since the all star break with a +35 run differential. Negative war pitchers are responsible for 3 of those losses.

Edited 4 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Baseball reference says he’s good, Fangraphs says he’s bad. 2.51 ERA and a .7 bWAR versus a 4.81 FIP and a -.2 fWAR. 
I’m siding with Fangraphs on this.

Fully checks out and highlights the issues I have with bWAR, and why I *never* use it for pitching (I don't for hitting but that's a different story).

bWAR uses RA9 as their base and fWAR uses FIP. RA9 has a major blind spot for a pitcher like Thornton who is limiting runs because it's not factoring in strikeouts or walks. It's less predictive. There are obvious flaws in FIP (why FIP beaters are a real thing) but far less flawed than RA9. Especially in the modern game; RA9 can be useful for previous eras in which the strikeout was a bit less in the zeitgeist but especially today, FIP and xFIP are much better.

Weaker inputs equals weaker outputs. Thornton is bad. bWAR can't see it, however. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Fully checks out and highlights the issues I have with bWAR, and why I *never* use it for pitching (I don't for hitting but that's a different story).

bWAR uses RA9 as their base and fWAR uses FIP. RA9 has a major blind spot for a pitcher like Thornton who is limiting runs because it's not factoring in strikeouts or walks. It's less predictive. There are obvious flaws in FIP (why FIP beaters are a real thing) but far less flawed than RA9. Especially in the modern game; RA9 can be useful for previous eras in which the strikeout was a bit less in the zeitgeist but especially today, FIP and xFIP are much better.

Weaker inputs equals weaker outputs. Thornton is bad. bWAR can't see it, however. 

bWAR actually ranked the Cubs 25th in RA9 bwar with 7.4 despite being 9th in team ERA. Fangraphs had them at 19th at 13.4 in 2025, which doesn’t exactly check out either. It appears that the Cubs DRS and a more extreme park factor adjustment cut into a lot of those wins. SOS is factored in too (positional bWAR was 1st at 39.2)…..  I wasn’t patient enough to read their entire methodology but they assign 590 wins to position players instead of 570. They’ll penalize/reward position players for GIDP, sac flus. Etc 
 

Baseball reference is more of a baseball encyclopedia than a player evaluation tool, although it’s convenient. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

bWAR actually ranked the Cubs 25th in RA9 bwar with 7.4 despite being 9th in team ERA. Fangraphs had them at 19th at 13.4 in 2025, which doesn’t exactly check out either. It appears that the Cubs DRS and a more extreme park factor adjustment cut into a lot of those wins. SOS is factored in too (positional bWAR was 1st at 39.2)…..  I wasn’t patient enough to read their entire methodology but they assign 590 wins to position players instead of 570. They’ll penalize/reward position players for GIDP, sac flus. Etc 
 

Baseball reference is more of a baseball encyclopedia than a player evaluation tool, although it’s convenient. 

Last statement is quite accurate. It's convenient and I think more widely known in baseball circles. But it more of an encyclopedia and history website for baseball history dorks. FanGraphs is far more an eval website by baseball math dorks. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Last statement is quite accurate. It's convenient and I think more widely known in baseball circles. But it more of an encyclopedia and history website for baseball history dorks. FanGraphs is far more an eval website by baseball math dorks. 

I’m of those dorks. But yeah, there’s something wrong with their methodology when Nico has a higher war than Juan Soto (2025). Thanks for bullying me into preferring Fangraphs BTW (in a good way).