Random trade speculation

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Does Shaw even have a big enough sample size to say that he doesn’t have the bat, just in general?

He does not have enough sample size to say anything definitively. No. He doesn't even have 600 PAs yet and is 24. It's fair to be skeptical about what his bat may be, but nothing should be concluded yet. 

[Dfan25]

53 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Does Shaw even have a big enough sample size to say that he doesn’t have the bat, just in general?

He doesn’t , too early to write him off. With that said Mead is just a better hitter currently .  

[BKHoo]

Does the front office count on Brown or Steele as bullpen options at all when envisioning how the year will end plus the playoffs? 

[Dfan25]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Could have also been the Cubs who didn’t want to trade Shaw for Early. You can’t assume Boston didn’t want him. I mean, the Red Sox eventually traded for Durbin, so they obviously were looking for infield help. I would think if Shaw was offered for Early the Red Sox would have gladly done that deal in the past off season. 
But you are correct, Mead is showing more offense. If that is the sole purpose of acquiring a guy and the team doesn’t care about defense, yes, Mead makes the most sense for the Red Sox. Which was your point. 
What I am saying is I think the Cubs could get the same sort of deal for Shaw because, IMO, he is basically as valuable as Mead. He just gets his value a little differently. Maybe Shaw for Hancock is a similar deal to the Nats/Red Sox trade?🤷

I have a really difficult time believing that the Cubs would have refuse to trade a player that had no path to regular playing time for a young control pitcher they like . The guys at the Athletic wrote several times about Early as a pitcher they like . 
 

If the Cubs liked Shaw so much why did they sign a 30+ year old 3B in the first place ? Especially a guy like Jed that is so careful with contracts . I think the answer is obvious . They weren’t sure about Shaw bat. 
 

What does Durbin have to do with any of this ? Of course they were looking for infield help . Everybody knew that .

They were looking for a power bat however . They settled on Durbin as a last resort move.

 

While I can’t say for sure which of the two teams didn’t want to make the move , I think it’s more likely it was the Red Sox who were reluctant , not the Cubs due to the reasons I already explained .  
 

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Does the front office count on Brown or Steele as bullpen options at all when envisioning how the year will end plus the playoffs? 

It’s a little bit of a double edged sword in that, if you assume they’re aren’t going to help you at all this year, it’s more arguable that you can look at the current pitching staff and conclude it’s completely helpless. So you want to at least picture them contributing at some point from a ‘should we go for it’ sense. But, they absolutely should not be looking at them as The Real Midseason Pickups. 
 

Trade for an elite starter and hope that brown/steele/cabrera can give you a pseudo bullpen game in the playoffs. If they don’t, that’s why they pay counsell and hottovy the big bucks. 

[Dfan25]

12 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Does the front office count on Brown or Steele as bullpen options at all when envisioning how the year will end plus the playoffs? 

I think they are counting g in Brown back at some point , and doesn’t sound like building him back as a SP is out if the question yet . Steele is iffy to say the least

[Tryptamine]

Wasn't the last report we got on Brown was that there basically no improvement, same with Hunter Harvey.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Wasn't the last report we got on Brown was that there basically no improvement, same with Hunter Harvey.

Latest update today is Harvey and Palencia are progressing well and could start rehab during the Dodgers series. No progression on Brown, probably still having symptoms. Steele is starting bullpens in August.

[bukie]

So now we're about 5 days from the deadline, and with both leagues having playoff spots up for grabs among teams even hovering near .500, very few teams are truly out of it. Here's the landscape for the league as of this morning:

1. Teams that are clearly in seller mode (< 5% chance of playoffs) (7): Angels, Rockies, Royals, Mets, Giants, Athletics, Reds

There aren't a ton of great options here for pitching, especially long term. Mets bullpen has some short term options. Reds might be hesitant to deal with the Cubs, but I'd at least kick the tires on some of their pitchers (*cough* Greene *cough*), as they have a dearth of offensive options and are probably unloading their older hitters at the deadline like Suarez and Stephenson.

2. Teams that could still squint and see a way to play into contentiion (< 25% chance of playoffs) (5): Blue Jays, Nationals, Marlins, Padres, Cardinals

Basically the Blue Jays streaking their way into contention since the AL is terrible, and the .500 NL teams that don't have good underlying numbers suggesting they'll fall off. They could fool themselves into panic buying here at the deadline (I mean, I don't put it past the Padres, who continue to operate like they're a fantasy team of statistics without any consideration for team composition). Any of these teams lose the next couple games, they'll convert to for sure sellers, and there are some really good pitching options here that the Cubs should try to pry away, like Gausman, but I have a hard time seeing any of these teams going full rebuild right now, save maybe the Padres.

3. AL teams that are in contention because the AL is garbage, and NL teams that can snag the last wildcard spot, but the World Series is not really in play (11): Twins, Astros, Orioles, Tigers, Pirates, White Sox, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Diamondbacks

I don't expect any of these teams to give up at this point, as the AL Central and West are not strong, and anyone could leap into a playoff spot with a week of good play. Twins and Tigers are probably the closest to borderline here, but they're still right there and it could be hard to get good assets here (Ryan, Skubal) without a huge overpay that makes it worth their time. Lots of these teams are just looking at making the playoffs as a success, so I don't see them sandbagging that for the future unless they can really get bonus value for expiring assets.

4) Actual contenders that are favorites to make the playoffs and have a realistic shot at the WS (7): Phillies, Cubs, Yankees, Rays, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers

These are the true buyers this year, the teams that are a piece or two away from a WS trip. Also the competition with the Cubs for some of the pitching options on the market. It's on the Cubs to decide whether to go all in for a shot this year or stay the course another year, but they really need at least one starter option and one bullpen option to feel better about this year's chances, even if they can get guys like Steele, Palencia and Brown back before the season is over.

[Geographyhater8888]

16 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

 

If the Cubs liked Shaw so much why did they sign a 30+ year old 3B in the first place ? Especially a guy like Jed that is so careful with contracts . I think the answer is obvious . They weren’t sure about Shaw bat. 
 

Not only that, Jed went after Bregman before Shaw took a major league at bat 2 off-seasons ago. So now they’re stuck finding him a position to play in the outfield until they find a trade partner for a pitcher they like, they’re auditioning for a corner outfield spot in 2027, turn him into a career utility guy with control if they can’t get the value they want, maybe Jed just really really likes Bregman. I have no idea but none of these are signs that they’re confident in Shaw, and extending Nico was the cherry on top. The whole thing is odd. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Anyone pumped for a Michael Wacha trade?

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Anyone pumped for a Michael Wacha trade?

If Michael Wacha is the extent of what they're going to do on the SP market, I'd almost rather just go with what we've got an keep the assets. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Anyone pumped for a Michael Wacha trade?

Depending on the cost, he wouldn’t be terrible. Obviously not my first choice. Probably not even a top 5 choice. But until we know who is actually traded it is hard to say one way or another if I would be satisfied with Wacha. If people don’t want to deal Ayers and Rojas for someone like Detmers I am not sure how they expect to get anything much better than Wacha. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If Michael Wacha is the extent of what they're going to do on the SP market, I'd almost rather just go with what we've got an keep the assets. 

I would take Wacha as a replacement for Tallion. 

[Dfan25]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Not only that, Jed went after Bregman before Shaw took a major league at bat 2 off-seasons ago. So now they’re stuck finding him a position to play in the outfield until they find a trade partner for a pitcher they like, they’re auditioning for a corner outfield spot in 2027, turn him into a career utility guy with control if they can’t get the value they want, maybe Jed just really really likes Bregman. I have no idea but none of these are signs that they’re confident in Shaw, and extending Nico was the cherry on top. The whole thing is odd. 

Jed has always had a man crush on Bregman . With that said if he thought Shaw could hit enough to be a a 3/4 war guy at 3B , believe me they wouldn’t have signed Bregman .

[731.4life]

28 minutes ago, bukie said:

 

There aren't a ton of great options here for pitching, especially long term. Mets bullpen has some short term options. Reds might be hesitant to deal with the Cubs, but I'd at least kick the tires on some of their pitchers (*cough* Greene *cough*), as they have a dearth of offensive options and are probably unloading their older hitters at the deadline like Suarez and Stephenson.

 

If the Cubs can find a way to get Hunter Greene and a rental in Gausman, then Jed has won me over. Gausman won't cost much because he is a rental.

Cincinnati is a tough spot. They fired David Bell for Terry Francona, so I assumed everyone thought they would be contending. However, the offense isn't productive outside of De La Cruz and Stewart. I know Ke'Bryan Hayes contract isn't much in terms of money, but they got 4+ more years on a contract that's worth $7-$12 Million dollars per season, which is a dark cloud for a batter hitting .143 and having 5 RBI's in 140+ AB's this season. They gifted Pittsburgh by trading for him.

I'm not sure if Cincinnati wants to pay Greene $15 Million for the next two seasons knowing they could lose him in free agency. And if the Cubs that has a surplus of players that are stuck at certain positions in the minor leagues, I think you can capitalize on a organization that has a cheap owner and a mediocire/bad GM.

[chibears55]

33 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Anyone pumped for a Michael Wacha trade?

Wacha would be a big upgrade over Taillon 

Cubs need that top guy and could use an upgrade over Taillon. 

If Rea is more beneficial for them as a reliever, then adding a second starter like Wacha would be big for them.

They can DFA Taillon and move Rea to the bullpen. 

New SP, Wacha, Imanaga, Boyd, Peterson/Cabrera

Having both Assad and Rea in the pen would upgrade the bullpen 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Greene is a weird case. Huge injury risk, more than an average pitcher, and he has been straight up awful outside of his start against the Cubs. But he's still only 26 and has two plus-plus pitches. No idea what the Reds would ask for him.

[Dfan25]

I would probably try to deal Rea and that cheap option to clear a bullpen spot for someone with higher upside 

Edited 4 hours ago by Dfan25

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Wacha would be a big upgrade over Taillon

He wouldn't be, and I mean that much more as a dig at Wacha than a compliment to Taillon

[KCCub]

I would LOVE a Detmers + one of Freddy/Gausman deadline. Find this years Kittridge and let’s roll 

[Neuby]

I want a RH bat for the bench/DH. I'm being Greedy but with Shaw ailing, Austin still MIA, Jed can find a cheap one.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Neuby said:

I want a RH bat for the bench/DH. I'm being Greedy but with Shaw ailing, Austin still MIA, Jed can find a cheap one.

To me this is so far down the list of needs I couldn’t care less about it. It is pitching, pitching and then after that, more pitching. 

[JD94]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

To me this is so far down the list of needs I couldn’t care less about it. It is pitching, pitching and then after that, more pitching. 

I agree