Random trade speculation

[Geographyhater8888]

Enough of this holding out for a unicorn #2 starter with years of control who’ll cost a fortune. Compromise and find a rental who’ll at least make give you a favorable matchup for an extra 20% of games., even if throwing in the south bend Cubs bullpen catcher, which Jed believes to be an overpay on top of prospects #9 and #12 for Gausman is what it takes.
This Assad/Rea/Taillon/Peterson experiment is cruel and will derail the season with the upcoming schedule. 
 

They’ve won 23 of 34 with below replacement level pitching (-.3 fWAR). This isn’t sustainable unless may 30th-july 2nd PCA shows up for the remaining 60 games and they’re able to maintain their 6.2 runs/game clip against better pitching staffs.

Edited Thursday at 10:20 AM by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Go Tigers. Don’t lose another game until August 5th so Skubal stays in the American League.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Enough of this holding out for a unicorn #2 starter with years of control who’ll cost a fortune. Compromise and find a rental who’ll at least make give you a favorable matchup for an extra 20% of games.

Why not get someone now so you don’t have to do this every damn year? I mean if they could get a rental right now and they like a deal at this point, I agree, why hold out for the guy with control left. But there is nothing to suggest they have any deal lined up if any kind and are slowing the process because they are hoping for someone they can have for 2 or 3 years after this one. 
If they really could get Gausman for two prospects outside top 10 in the system, yes, get him. But I don’t think that is real. I just hate that every year we go through the same thing. And if the Cubs aren’t close enough Jed won’t get a high end guy. If he bites the bullet this year and trades for a guy with years left, maybe we don’t always have to do this. Next year there will be other prospects. There always are.

 

[CubinNY]

You never know what's real in this age, but I saw a list of teams on Gausman's no-trade clause and it includes the Brewers. 

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Enough of this holding out for a unicorn #2 starter with years of control who’ll cost a fortune. Compromise and find a rental who’ll at least make give you a favorable matchup for an extra 20% of games., even if throwing in the south bend Cubs bullpen catcher, which Jed believes to be an overpay on top of prospects #9 and #12 for Gausman is what it takes.
This Assad/Rea/Taillon/Peterson experiment is cruel and will derail the season with the upcoming schedule. 
 

They’ve won 23 of 34 with below replacement level pitching (-.3 fWAR). This isn’t sustainable unless may 30th-july 2nd PCA shows up for the remaining 60 games and they’re able to maintain their 6.2 runs/game clip against better pitching staffs.

Again, the market isn't moving right now. Prices, whether rental or non-rental, are incredibly high as teams like the Tigers, Twins, Padres...decide whether or not they're selling or not. 

As it pertains to a "unicorn controlled pitcher" the Cubs literally acquired one of those in the winter (it hasn't worked out as well as you may have hoped) so this idea that it's impossible like you're presenting it ("unicorn") falls apart. As well, players like Reid Detmers who sit in that same territory are likely available in some fashion, but the rental market will likely have to kick up to force action. Whether today or the offseason, the Cubs need pitching in 2027. They have a very good reason to shop the controlled market. If you believe there will be a work stoppage this winter (and while I believe the 2027 season will mostly happen, I do expect a truncated and shortened offseason because of a lockout) it's going to condense the amount of time the team has to shop. So getting shopping done before then has tons of merits.

It's going to be something that we're all going to have to wait until closer to August 3rd, if not the 3rd, to see really kick off. Be mad on August 4th if they bring in a Soroka type as the fix or less. Until then, patience is the only thing we can have as the market is incredibly difficult until teams agree they're selling.

[Geographyhater8888]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Again, the market isn't moving right now. Prices, whether rental or non-rental, are incredibly high as teams like the Tigers, Twins, Padres...decide whether or not they're selling or not. 

As it pertains to a "unicorn controlled pitcher" the Cubs literally acquired one of those in the winter (it hasn't worked out as well as you may have hoped) so this idea that it's impossible like you're presenting it ("unicorn") falls apart. As well, players like Reid Detmers who sit in that same territory are likely available in some fashion, but the rental market will likely have to kick up to force action. Whether today or the offseason, the Cubs need pitching in 2027. They have a very good reason to shop the controlled market. If you believe there will be a work stoppage this winter (and while I believe the 2027 season will mostly happen, I do expect a truncated and shortened offseason because of a lockout) it's going to condense the amount of time the team has to shop. So getting shopping done before then has tons of merits.

It's going to be something that we're all going to have to wait until closer to August 3rd, if not the 3rd, to see really kick off. Be mad on August 4th if they bring in a Soroka type as the fix or less. Until then, patience is the only thing we can have as the market is incredibly difficult until teams agree they're selling.

Cabrera isn’t and never was a number 2 starting pitcher. He also had an opportunity to acquire him last summer but he didn’t like the price. He waited 5 months too late for a return on investment. I’m speaking in general anyways. I’ll withhold judgement and I’ll be happy with a pitcher who’ll make us better this year, even if he’s not on the cubs next year. Bonus if he is, and preferably better than either Soroka or Cabrera. 

Edited Thursday at 01:04 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Cabrera isn’t and never was a number 2 starting pitcher. He also had an opportunity to acquire him last summer but he didn’t like the price. He waited 5 months too late for a return on investment. I’m speaking in general anyways. I’ll withhold judgement and I’ll be happy with a pitcher who’ll make us better this year, even if he’s not on the cubs next year. Bonus if he is, and preferably better than either Soroka or Cabrera. 

One of these is Edwin Cabrera last year, and the other is Reid Detmers now:

Player A: 27.6 % K%, 7.5 BB%, 4.05 ERA, 3.32 xERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.67 xFIP
Player B: 25.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 3.53 ERA, 4.05 xERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.62 xFIP

And just for comparison, here is Joe Ryan this year:
27.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 3.38 ERA, 3.47 xERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.42 xFIP

The numbers these guys put up in 2026 for Cabrera and Detmers now are shockingly close to Joe Ryan, a pitcher we should all love to get our hands on. Now, you'd be correct in pointing out the glaring difference: Ryan does this consistently and we haven't seen the same consistency from the other 2 or even close to it. It's why Ryan is the better bet and would cost more. But the way you're talking about Cabrera, you'd think he was on the level of the guy you coupled him with: Michael Soroka. 

Detmers is 26 and has started 97 games with up and down ability while at the time of acquiring Cabrera, he was 27 and had 82 starts. They've had shockingly similar careers; highly touted prospects who were with organizations not known for pitching development (Miami's perception is in the process of changing, LAA's isn't) that flashed high end production from time to time but struggled to be consistent all the time.

Let's not play the "Cabrera isn't and never was a #2" game. I won't debate with you "what a #2 is and isn't" because it's a dumb debate that revolves entirely over subjectiveness. Instead, let's acknowledge that their xFIPs would both be top-25 this year and last year would have been top-15. Everything Cabrera did last year would make you very comfortable with him being a lead in your rotation if it kept up (same argument for Detmers) and if he stayed healthy. Obviously 2026 hasn't been as kind to Cabrera! It's why Detmers won't be as costly as Joe Ryan: you can bank on Ryan and you can't on Detmers and can't on Cabrera. But when the Cubs got him, he was absolutely better than you're acting.

I also agree they didn't get a controlled pitcher last year. They may not this year. But they have every reason to explore it. And I'd argue are in a better position to make it happen this year. And the kind of trade that would be out there for controlled SP's would be very similar to how the Cubs acquired Cabrera in the offseason; it's not a unicorn. We literally did it six months ago.

[Bertz]

Also worth noting Cabrera got stronger as last year went on.  His post June 1st numbers, which has always in good faith been brought up as a period where stats matter more, were a 3.23 ERA / 3.43 xFIP.  In line with guys like Max Fried, Ranger Suarez, Jacob deGrom, etc.

[Bertz]

Also I'll plant my flag that I'm not especially worried about Cabrera.  His problem has mostly been dongs and he would not be the first guy to come here and struggle his first half season due to a dong problem.  And the velo drop from early in the season, the thing that had me most legitimately nervous, got resolved during his first IL trip with the blister (whether or not that was the cause who knows).

[Hunter]

What is the over/under on numbers of days on the DL for a starter we do get?

[Rex Buckingham]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7465047/2026/07/23/cubs-trade-deadline-pitchers-to-watch/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.z1A.J1eR.xNSWUL-JLzhE&smid=ta-android-share

Sharma shares the usual names: Soriano, Detmers, Ray, Holmes, Peralta, Gausman

He does say the Cubs will keep a close eye on Holmes' rehab start, so that may be something

Edited Thursday at 08:57 PM by Rex Buckingham

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7465047/2026/07/23/cubs-trade-deadline-pitchers-to-watch/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.z1A.J1eR.xNSWUL-JLzhE&smid=ta-android-share

Sharma shares the usual names: Soriano, Letters, Ray, Holmes, Peralta, Gausman

He does say the Cubs will keep a close eye on Holmes' rehab start, so that may be something

Robbie Ray is the clear "one of these things is not like the others" on this list.  Though I do sort of wonder if you could get him at least back to 2025 form by dropping the sinker and just focusing on the 4 seamer.

I like seeing Soriano and Detmers on there too.  I know Sharma's as much an analyst as he is a journalist but I think if the Angels weren't playing ball in conversations with those guys Sahadev would have gotten that feedback and they'd have been ommitted from the article in the same way Logan Webb was.

[Rob]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

You never know what's real in this age, but I saw a list of teams on Gausman's no-trade clause and it includes the Brewers. 

Of course, a no-trade list is not really a no-trade list. It's a "you have to incentivize me to waive this" list.

Most of those lists are now populated by teams the players think will be in the market at the trade deadline -- such that they can get an extra $1m relocation fee or whatever for agreeing to waive. It's just gamesmanship.

The number of players that wont actually accept a trade to a team on their no-trade list is pretty small. 90+% of them just want a bribe to do so.

[Jason Ross]

Per the Athletic:

Quote

The Chicago Cubs, who already have acquired left-hander David Peterson and righty Aaron Civale while trying to patch together their rotation, seemingly would be a team interested in Hancock.

Three Cubs right-handed hitters of varying experience – right fielder Seiya Suzuki, infielder/outfielder Matt Shaw and outfielder Kevin Alcántara – could appeal to the Mariners. But the Cubs, canvassing the entire market for starters, potentially could line up with the Los Angeles Angels for righty José Soriano or lefty Reid Detmers as well.

The Angels, according to a person briefed on their pursuits, are interested in acquiring a young catcher. Owen Ayers, the Cubs’ No. 10 prospect according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, might qualify. Ayers, 25, started the season in High A and is now at Triple A.

Both Soriano and Detmers are under control for two additional seasons. Neither is certain to be traded under interim GM John Mozeliak. And neither comes without questions.

Soriano, 27, had a 0.84 ERA through seven starts, then a 4.90 in his next 14, though he has pitched better of late. He also has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, in Feb. 2020 and June 2021.

Detmers, also 27, is at 120 innings, nearly double the number he threw last season, when the Angels used him solely as a reliever. He had higher totals in 2023 (a career-high 148 2/3 in the majors) and ‘24 (165 1/3 between the majors and minors). But some teams are concerned he might wear down over the final two months, plus another he could pitch in the postseason.

 

[Tryptamine]

Hadn't realized that Emerson Hancock had turned it around in 2026 after being miserable the 3 years prior.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Per the Athletic:

 

Hancock would be a good get. Not for Seiya, but I would be fine with either or both of the other two. 

Edited Thursday at 07:44 PM by Rcal10

[Post Count Padder]

I'd be bummed at trading Ayers but at the same time wonder if his value is an all time high right now.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

The Mariners are definitely a good match, they are unfairly rich with SP and their offense is terrible 

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hancock would be a good get. Not for Seiya, but I would be fine with either or both of the other two. 

Definitely no on Seiya and I'm a bit torn on Shaw. I have zero issues whatsoever with dealing Shaw, I'm just not sure Hancock has the kind of upside I'd like if they're going to move Shaw, but if it happened I'd probably be cool with it.

[Tryptamine]

Speaking of Seiya, guy is raking again this year. He's been between 123 and 137 wRC+ the last 4 years. I wasn't big on reupping him to start the year, but I think I'd like him back if he'd take a 2 or 3 year deal. 

[Dfan25]

I am not completely sold on Hancock but I guess the team control makes it fair for Shaw .  Hancock not a FA until 2031

[Dfan25]

And I just don’t see a world where they can trade Seiya . He is just too important with the RH power

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Hancock for Shaw is a no-brainer. One step closer to never having to watch Taillon and Rea pitch in meaningful situations, or at all.

[Dfan25]

Also even though Detmers had less control I rather deal for him . I have no problem including Ayer’s in that deal .

. Alcantara can be on that deal as well , although not sure on his fit with Ana . They probably need to add more though. 

Edited Thursday at 08:05 PM by Dfan25

[Bertz]

43 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Per the Athletic:

 

LFG!

With Rosenthal mentioning names that specific it's not an accident.

Hancock has not been on my radar but him for Shaw feels like it'd be pretty close to an even split.  And it's pretty out there that the M's are looking to trade an arm for a bat with all six guys healthy and Anderson coming up fast

The Angels looking at catching is great too.  Moving one of Mo or Ayers is one of the more logical ways to get where we wanna go.