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Old-Timey Member
Posted

One of the things I appreciate about Caleb is he is a reminder that football is a game not a collection of statistics - football isn't baseball. You only get 17 discrete data points, and each throw within those data points has its own wide range of contexts all while there are 10 other players involved each having their own jobs to do and succeeding or failing within them and.... etc. 

Caleb is clearly a baller. The advanced stats have come a long way but they're always going to be highly imperfect, far more imperfect than baseball stats could ever be. He confounds them, they can't really capture how good he is. Football is a highly emotional, violent game. And the eye test is confirmation that Caleb is really goddamn good. 

And thats why no matter what they have a chance on Sunday. 

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Old-Timey Member
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

A game manager who has become incredibly hard to sack and who has possibly the strongest arm in the game but also airmails a lot of easy throws lol

 

 

Your brain has been broken having been forced to watch Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer, Todd Collins, Chase Daniel, Matt Barkley, Nick Foles… this is not your fault. The Bears did this to you. However, there is a cure: to watch more Caleb Williams 

Edited by BigSlick
Old-Timey Member
Posted

Okay Chicagoans, when should I grab my ticket?  Have prices dropped as far as they're going to or will people panic sell on Sunday when the reality of how cold it is hits them?

Posted

This is it and I will move on but damn Matt LaFleur and his family and friends are still butt hurt about Ben Johnson. I love it. Bears have a coach that will not be a pushover. McVay and Shanahan are both part of that coaching tree, so let's add those two to the list of butt hurt coaches.

  • Like 2
Posted
36 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Okay Chicagoans, when should I grab my ticket?  Have prices dropped as far as they're going to or will people panic sell on Sunday when the reality of how cold it is hits them?

Hmmm. Cleveland ticket prices lasted pretty long before plummeting.  Of course this is a divisional playoff game. I don't think there is gonna be any significant drop. 

Old-Timey Member
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

This is it and I will move on but damn Matt LaFleur and his family and friends are still butt hurt about Ben Johnson. I love it. Bears have a coach that will not be a pushover. McVay and Shanahan are both part of that coaching tree, so let's add those two to the list of butt hurt coaches.

Still at Anger along the stages of grief.

Edited by gflore34
Community Moderator
Posted

I had no idea that Billy Williams did the Good Bette Best thing during his HOF speech in 1987.  Super cool.

 

 

 

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Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 hour ago, mul21 said:

Okay Chicagoans, when should I grab my ticket?  Have prices dropped as far as they're going to or will people panic sell on Sunday when the reality of how cold it is hits them?

Keep in mind the lowest face value tickets are priced at $270. I think your best bet is to buy very late Saturday night or Sunday morning 

Posted
9 hours ago, mul21 said:

Okay Chicagoans, when should I grab my ticket?  Have prices dropped as far as they're going to or will people panic sell on Sunday when the reality of how cold it is hits them?

When I buy big time concert tickets I noticed the best time to buy them is as last as humanly possible.  Prices drop late at least for concerts anyways but I would assume the same applies for sporting events as well.

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Posted
16 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

A game manager who has become incredibly hard to sack and who has possibly the strongest arm in the game but also airmails a lot of easy throws lol

 

 

I can live with the missing the routine throws and reads (for now) as long as he makes up for it with his his circus throws which he basically has since week 12. He’s completed 61% of his throws over 20 air yards which ranked 2nd in the NFL. Weeks 1-11 he only completed 35% of them. We’re seeing a lot more of the Caleb Williams that made him the number 1 pick. I attribute it partly to better pass blocking from Trapilo who we’ll miss on Sunday but Caleb is also talent as horsefeathers. 

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Community Moderator
Posted

Just read that NBC will broadcast Jim Cornelison's National Anthem before the Bears/Rams game. Too lazy to link it.

  • Like 3
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, BigSlick said:

One of the things I appreciate about Caleb is he is a reminder that football is a game not a collection of statistics - football isn't baseball. You only get 17 discrete data points, and each throw within those data points has its own wide range of contexts all while there are 10 other players involved each having their own jobs to do and succeeding or failing within them and.... etc. 

Caleb is clearly a baller. The advanced stats have come a long way but they're always going to be highly imperfect, far more imperfect than baseball stats could ever be. He confounds them, they can't really capture how good he is. Football is a highly emotional, violent game. And the eye test is confirmation that Caleb is really goddamn good. 

And thats why no matter what they have a chance on Sunday. 

Caleb’s EPA is 90 points higher than 2024 and added 25 points in December when Johnson said the offense would be clicking, which would make him a top 5 quarterback extrapolated into a 17 games. Passer rating, completion %, yards and TD passes are equivalent to triple crown stats in baseball. 

He’s 10th in ANY/A which is a combination of things that matter like NY/A and TD:INT ratio+TD%. He’s improved by multiple standard deviations above league average across all categories outside of completion %, passer rating and INT%, because that was his only area of strength last season.

He’s a middle of the pack quarterback in terns of next gen stats but the trajectory of his growth is what’s encouraging.

Edited by Geographyhater8888
Posted
1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Caleb’s EPA is 90 points higher than 2024 and added 25 points in December when Johnson said the offense would be clicking, which would make him a top 5 quarterback extrapolated into a 17 games. Passer rating, completion %, yards and TD passes are equivalent to triple crown stats in baseball. 

He’s 10th in ANY/A which is a combination of things that matter like NY/A and TD:INT ratio+TD%. He’s improved by multiple standard deviations above league average across all categories outside of completion %, passer rating and INT%, because that was his only area of strength last season.

He’s a middle of the pack quarterback in terns of next gen stats but the trajectory of his growth is what’s encouraging.

ANY/A also takes into account sacks, which is probably it's main advantage over passer rating.  Passer rating still also not a bad aggregate team stat, but ANY/A slightly more predictive.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

ANY/A also takes into account sacks, which is probably it's main advantage over passer rating.  Passer rating still also not a bad aggregate team stat, but ANY/A slightly more predictive.  

It does. ANY/A is more predictive of wins and losses than passer rating. Completion percentage is too heavily weighted relative to Y/A in my opinion for passer rating.

  • Like 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It does. ANY/A is more predictive of wins and losses than passer rating. Completion percentage is too heavily weighted relative to Y/A in my opinion for passer rating.

Yea passer rating treats each of its buckets basically as equal inputs, which just isn't great. And ignoring sacks, as stated.  

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yea passer rating treats each of its buckets basically as equal inputs, which just isn't great. And ignoring sacks, as stated.  

For Caleb to have a 100 passer rating he’d need either 70 more completions to compete 70% or 1,360 more passing yards on the same number of attempts for 5.300 yards. The difference between 9.1 ANY/A which would be top 5 all time and 6.76 which ranked 10th this year.

Edited by Geographyhater8888
Old-Timey Member
Posted

All anyone really needs is to look at the trail of broken hearts Caleb leaves in his wake.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Let's get our 6th Soldier Field game in 7 weeks with a 49ers win today and Bears win tomorrow.

If that happened and we advanced to the Super Bowl this would be our last 8 games:

-Chicago

-Chicago

-San Francisco

-Chicago

-Chicago

-Chicago

-Chicago

-San Francisco

  • Like 2
Posted
2 hours ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

Like Matt TheFlower’s?

Don't forget Matt's brother, Mike, is on McVay's staff. So the Bears have a chance to eliminate a second LaFleur from the playoffs. 

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