Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[CubUgly]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think Mo is going to hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a guy hitting .280-.300 with 15-18 homers as his best case scenario. Maybe a wRC guy of 125. I am not suggesting next year. But your question is best case scenerio. I took it to mean as he plays a while in the league. Now, the issue is, can he catcher. I think for that to happen, the best case scenario this year would be the Cubs get another bat who can DH and play outfield. Leave Mo at Iowa this season and let him catch every day. Maybe (again, you asked best case scenario) he can become an average defensive catcher. An average catcher with his hitting ability is an all star catcher. That is the ultimate best case scenario. 
I do think he will DH this year and do well. I am talking ROY contention, well. I am fine with him on the team. But in doing so, IMO, they are deciding his position will be DH for his career. 

This^^^^^ I too think he's going to hit.  I don't ever see him as a 30 homer guy but a 20 homer guy yes who will hit, walk and not strike out a lot.  If he could only make his way to being serviceable as a catcher I think we'll have a good player for a good while. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What’s the best case scenario from Bellestaros? 

In 2026 or in general? In 2026 I think a strong-side platoon DH with a 115-120 wRC+ lead largely by strong BABIP and contact, mixed in with like 15 home runs. Bumps but no extended horrible runs of two-months where he's just terrible. Maybe he catches 10-20 games.

Overall? Strong side platoon DH who catches as a 1A/1B situation with early-Freddie-Freeman type hitting. .363 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 18-20 HR. Freeman has never been a batted ball star and Ballesteros doesn't look like one either, so that's why I go with that. I'm not talking prime-Freeman, but those early years from like 2011-2015.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The balls in Jed’s court for sure. Once again though, Gallen feels redundant and interchangeable with Boyd, Taillon and Shota. He has more upside that Taillon I guess. 
 

We’re counting on Horton, Cabrera and Steeles upside and health to make noise in October. So I’m not sure how excited I should be if they end up with Gallen.

I get what you are saying and if the Cubs don’t get Gallen, that is ok. However, if they did get him, IMO, they would be doing so because they feel they can fix him and turn him back into the pitcher he was prior to 2025. If that is the case why wouldn’t he also be someone counted on for being just as good as the pitchers you feel the Cubs are counting on? Wouldn’t they be better off having 4 guys they hope to get their upside years from, rather then 3? Maybe 3 of 4 reach the upside. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Second growth spurt?

On paper it seems like a hitting advantage being 5’8. It’s harder to throw strikes with a smaller strike zone. It makes sense if you pretend Aaron Judge isn’t 6’7.

Edited February 5 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

n 2026 or in general? In 2026 I think a strong-side platoon DH with a 115-120 wRC+ lead largely by strong BABIP and contact, mixed in with like 15 home runs. Bumps but no extended horrible runs of two-months where he's just terrible. Maybe he catches 10-20 games.

Feel like you start to lose a little of the plot when you start talking about fWAR production from the DH spot with the built in defensive penalty, but still think it shows just what's required to stand out from primarily playing in that slot.

In total, you had four players generate more than 3 fWAR from the DH spot, all of which had an wRC over 150. After that, Judge (in 56 games, lol), Trout, and Yelich put up between 2 and 3. Trout with a 134 wRC in 463 PAs, Yelich with a 122 in 560 PAs (and positive baserunning).

Going off your general stat ranges, the comp that stands out is Yandy Diaz: 496 PAs, .283/.347/.451, 121 wRC, 19 HRs, 1.7 fWAR. Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC, 584 PAs, 1.2 fWAR) and Suzuki (109 wRC, 444 PAs, 0.9 fWAR) were much more walk heavy than BABIP heavy. Rooker and Polanco have too much power. 

I'm fine with them passing on Suarez, even at the one year contract he signed. I'd love if there was an option in the 1/$8m range that could hit RHPs well just to give Ballesteros 100 games behind the plate in Iowa. I just don't see a path to an elite bat in what he's done so far, so it's a pretty low ceiling if he doesn't have a position. Nathaniel Lowe kinda collapsed last year in a full time role (wRC by year: 143, 118, 123, 91), but most of that collapse was because he had to face LHPs (41 wRC against LHP vs 111 against RHPs). Winker has a career 128 wRC against RHP but might be cooked (94 wRC last year). Probably not a good option out there. 

 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Feel like you start to lose a little of the plot when you start talking about fWAR production from the DH spot with the built in defensive penalty, but still think it shows just what's required to stand out from primarily playing in that slot.

In total, you had four players generate more than 3 fWAR from the DH spot, all of which had an wRC over 150. After that, Judge (in 56 games, lol), Trout, and Yelich put up between 2 and 3. Trout with a 134 wRC in 463 PAs, Yelich with a 122 in 560 PAs (and positive baserunning).

Going off your general stat ranges, the comp that stands out is Yandy Diaz: 496 PAs, .283/.347/.451, 121 wRC, 19 HRs, 1.7 fWAR. Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC, 584 PAs, 1.2 fWAR) and Suzuki (109 wRC, 444 PAs, 0.9 fWAR) were much more walk heavy than BABIP heavy. Rooker and Polanco have too much power. 

I'm fine with them passing on Suarez, even at the one year contract he signed. I'd love if there was an option in the 1/$8m range that could hit RHPs well just to give Ballesteros 100 games behind the plate in Iowa. I just don't see a path to an elite bat in what he's done so far, so it's a pretty low ceiling if he doesn't have a position. Nathaniel Lowe kinda collapsed last year in a full time role (wRC by year: 143, 118, 123, 91), but most of that collapse was because he had to face LHPs (41 wRC against LHP vs 111 against RHPs). Winker has a career 128 wRC against RHP but might be cooked (94 wRC last year). Probably not a good option out there. 

 

Yeah, I don't think Moises Ballesteros as a DH is a particularly amazing player. I think he's got a pathway be a fine DH, primary league DH was at 115 wRC+ last year. Once you drop to a "positional split" DH, it drops to 110 wRC+. Which is why a lot of how you look at him long term has to come down to his ability to catch. Considering we've heard the Cubs are high on Mo, that they reportedly wouldn't add him in deals last deadline (whether that's posturing or whatever, up to the individual) you hope that internally, they see him as someone who can catch 40-60 games at the MLB level. I think a guy like that becomes a far more special player. 

So that's always my hope.

As it pertains just to 2026, my hope is that a Ballesteros vs RHP and Tyler Austin vs LHP is the key. Austin smashed LHP in Japan and even if he's like a 130 wRC+ guy against LHP (still a rosy projection, but down from his 170 wRC+ last year in NPB) you're going to likely be pretty solid at the position season long. It may not necessarily be "Austin starting at DH" (Busch might play against LHP some, it could be that a starter is playing DH but Austin is really drawing in for Ballesteros still, etc) but I kind of put the two together in most scenarios. I think the Cubs should be alright there, and the good news is that Suarez was relatively cheap at the deadline compared to P's last year. I think the Cubs should probably be able to fix the position worst-case-scenario in July, and I think they should be deep enough of a roster to handle a bad DH spot if all of Ballesteros, Austin, Long and Alcantara can't hold the spot down.

[squally1313]

33 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, I don't think Moises Ballesteros as a DH is a particularly amazing player. I think he's got a pathway be a fine DH, primary league DH was at 115 wRC+ last year. Once you drop to a "positional split" DH, it drops to 110 wRC+. Which is why a lot of how you look at him long term has to come down to his ability to catch. Considering we've heard the Cubs are high on Mo, that they reportedly wouldn't add him in deals last deadline (whether that's posturing or whatever, up to the individual) you hope that internally, they see him as someone who can catch 40-60 games at the MLB level. I think a guy like that becomes a far more special player. 

So that's always my hope.

As it pertains just to 2026, my hope is that a Ballesteros vs RHP and Tyler Austin vs LHP is the key. Austin smashed LHP in Japan and even if he's like a 130 wRC+ guy against LHP (still a rosy projection, but down from his 170 wRC+ last year in NPB) you're going to likely be pretty solid at the position season long. It may not necessarily be "Austin starting at DH" (Busch might play against LHP some, it could be that a starter is playing DH but Austin is really drawing in for Ballesteros still, etc) but I kind of put the two together in most scenarios. I think the Cubs should be alright there, and the good news is that Suarez was relatively cheap at the deadline compared to P's last year. I think the Cubs should probably be able to fix the position worst-case-scenario in July, and I think they should be deep enough of a roster to handle a bad DH spot if all of Ballesteros, Austin, Long and Alcantara can't hold the spot down.

Can you do both though? If Ballesteros starts with the team in a DH role, and he hits to an above average wRC, he's never going to get the catching reps he needs. If he doesn't hit, well...that's a whole new and different problem. 

I don't have a good answer in terms of an actual player, but in the world where we're past the first luxury tax, feel like there's maybe a way to replicate DH production against RHPs for a handful of million dollars, which seems like treading water at the major league level but really the money is to take a shot at unlocking a very valuable catcher going forward. 

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Can you do both though? If Ballesteros starts with the team in a DH role, and he hits to an above average wRC, he's never going to get the catching reps he needs. If he doesn't hit, well...that's a whole new and different problem. 

I don't have a good answer in terms of an actual player, but in the world where we're past the first luxury tax, feel like there's maybe a way to replicate DH production against RHPs for a handful of million dollars, which seems like treading water at the major league level but really the money is to take a shot at unlocking a very valuable catcher going forward. 

I am of the belief that yes, he can still learn how to catch even if he's the primary DH. They practice and the team has said that there is intrinsic value of their young players being with the MLB club. Game reps will always beat practice reps, but I believe the biggest issue standing in Ballesteros way, especially with ABS coming, is footwork and balls in the dirt (his arm is pretty decent in terms of strength). And I do believe there is real value with working with Carson Kelly (91st percentile in Statcast blocking) on a day to day basis. On top of that, the Brewers would, in an off-season, magically transform a horsefeathers defensive catcher into a better one by OD. Now, I'll hold off on suggesting the Cubs have the same fairy dust, but an off-season of work this year, another one next year, coupled with a day to day tutoring of Kelly, and likely some game reps behind the plate in 2026 (I expect he should see maybe 10-30 games? Let's see how health between he, Amaya and Kelly and his bat work) should provide plenty of development ability. He doesn't really need to be a catcher in 2026 outside of some curated games. You're really thinking 2027 and beyond with that aspect of his game and I think there is plenty of time to get there. 

[Bertz]

I think catcher is the one position where there's as much (maybe even more?) to learn off the field as on.  Like we have an example on hand in Miguel Amaya.  He missed playing the field in most of '21 and all of '22.  Then in 2023 he had a month in the minors, and after he came up in early May was mostly just Kyle Hendricks' personal caddy.  

I'm hoping Mo gets to be personal valet to one of the vets (Boyd ideally), and then he can just pick up scraps from there when one of Kelly/Amaya is banged up.

[NorthsideAvenger]

4 hours ago, CubUgly said:

This^^^^^ I too think he's going to hit.  I don't ever see him as a 30 homer guy but a 20 homer guy yes who will hit, walk and not strike out a lot.  If he could only make his way to being serviceable as a catcher I think we'll have a good player for a good while. 

That screams Carlos Santana, minus the switch-hitting, to me. 

[squally1313]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think catcher is the one position where there's as much (maybe even more?) to learn off the field as on.

I think I'm more in the position of it just being an incredibly difficult position in general. Yes, there's a bunch of soft skills to pick up off the field. But like, you want to teach Matt Shaw right field at Wrigley, go have a jugs machine send him 1000 fly balls with different spins, launch angles, etc. That's going to be more meaningful than the 2-3 balls he might get a game.

Whereas with catcher, I don't know how you replicate the dozens of daily opportunities to frame full effort pitching, and I don't know much you want to be taking your mostly full time DH onto the practice field and spiking 88 mph curveballs at him.

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

That screams Carlos Santana, minus the switch-hitting, to me. 

minus the switch hitting, minus the walk rate over 13% for the first dozen years of his career, minus the 8 years he hit more than 20 home runs.

For the first ten years of Santana's career, he averaged 23 home runs with a .367 OBP, had at least 600 PAs every year after his rookie year, and eclipsed 3 fWAR twice, and never as a catcher. It's just...really, really hard to provide outsize value without elite power or any defensive contributions. 

[Backtobanks]

54 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

That screams Carlos Santana, minus the switch-hitting, to me. 

Going back to the 50s and 60s, Mo reminds me of Smoky Burgess.  He was a short, squat catcher who was a doubles machine.  

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think I'm more in the position of it just being an incredibly difficult position in general. Yes, there's a bunch of soft skills to pick up off the field. But like, you want to teach Matt Shaw right field at Wrigley, go have a jugs machine send him 1000 fly balls with different spins, launch angles, etc. That's going to be more meaningful than the 2-3 balls he might get a game.

Whereas with catcher, I don't know how you replicate the dozens of daily opportunities to frame full effort pitching, and I don't know much you want to be taking your mostly full time DH onto the practice field and spiking 88 mph curveballs at him.

This team *really* values soft skills behind the plate.  They thought Yan Gomes walked on water and he stopped being a good defensive catcher by the public metrics 4-5 years before he got to Chicago.  If Mo's a -5 catcher on paper but a +10 catcher in Craig's heart they'll gladly let it rip.  Also seeing how some catchers have drastically improved their defense with new orgs (William Contreras?) makes me wonder if the catcher equivalent of jugs work isn't in fact viable.

I'm sure getting ~20% playing time in MLB is not the optimal way to improve Mo's defense, but I'm not sure it's suboptimal enough to A) go with a less desirable option at DH and B) counterbalance the fact that Mo's bat continuing to hang out in Iowa is suboptimal for that half of his development.  

[Bertz]

 

If you were reading tea leaves you'd probably say that Arizona is about to spend a little money and not on Zac Gallen

[Post Count Padder]

Not a huge deal but interesting trade going down:

Strowd was a decent reliever last year and the other guys are interesting lottery tickets. Alexander is out of options and obviously behind Henderson and Holliday and Westberg on the depth chart.

[Post Count Padder]

Also Skubal won his arb hearing and will make $32 million this year.

[chibears55]

I think the Cubs are done adding to the major league roster.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I think the Cubs are done adding to the major league roster.

Essentially every signal we've gotten from those connected to the team is the opposite. 

[Post Count Padder]

Well the Red Sox are surely set now with all this firepower.
 

 

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, I don't think Moises Ballesteros as a DH is a particularly amazing player. I think he's got a pathway be a fine DH, primary league DH was at 115 wRC+ last year. Once you drop to a "positional split" DH, it drops to 110 wRC+. Which is why a lot of how you look at him long term has to come down to his ability to catch.

As an offensive player we have to factor in his slow baserunning too, which will bring his offensive value down.

But the slow running also means he's very likely been a better hitter in the box throughout the minors than his wRC+ gives credit for because he's not beating out as many grounders, which would harm his BABIP.

[muntjack]

I know it was only 66 PAs, but a 21 yr old Ballesteros had a 143 wRC+ in his first cup of coffee.  I dont think a 115wRC+ is "best case scenario".

As a platoon DH, I think he can post numbers fairly close to that.  An OBP- heavy 130-140 wRC+.  

 

 

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, muntjack said:

I know it was only 66 PAs, but a 21 yr old Ballesteros had a 143 wRC+ in his first cup of coffee.  I dont think a 115wRC+ is "best case scenario".

As a platoon DH, I think he can post numbers fairly close to that.  An OBP- heavy 130-140 wRC+.  

 

 

His sample size was 66 PAs; let's not read much into that. Most of his data is just barely at "stabilization" at that point; it's so few PAs we should essentially ignore it. I'd say the same if had an 80 wRC+, to be fair.

Also if you do want to really use his wRC+, than you can't ignore that his xwOBA was .40 points below his wOBA. You could point out that in that sample size expected data isn't very useful, but that's kind of the overall point; very little is useful in that small of a sample especially for a rookie. Again it's better to just take this sample size as what it is; so small it's not really worth it to try to project out from it. 

I don't hate Ballesteros at all, a rookie putting up a 120 wRC+ is a good rookie season here. Only three rookies with at least 300 PAs eclipsed a 125 wRC+ last year; Nick Kurtz, Daylen Lile and Roman Anthony so let's understand how impressive a 120 wRC+ would be. Let's not forget either, he had a 121 wRC+ in Iowa in a far larger sample. We should expect struggles to a degree; so giving him a 120 wRC+ next year is basically ignoring any drop off against a major increase in pitch quality. Ballesteros doesn't hit enough home runs to really think he's realistically going to make the jump to MLB and go beyond a 120 wRC+ in a meaningful way. 

[mk49]

There's no doubt Mo can hit.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he does .285 BA, 18 HRs, 125ish WRC+ this year.  

My question is how much he can improve defensively, while he's just doing DH.  In the perfect world, Amaya and Mo can be our catchers, after Kelly leaves.

Edited February 6 by mk49

[Geographyhater8888]

A

5 hours ago, mk49 said:

There's no doubt Mo can hit.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he does .285 BA, 18 HRs, 125ish WRC+ this year.  

My question is how much he can improve defensively, while he's just doing DH.  In the perfect world, Amaya and Mo can be our catchers, after Kelly leaves.

Like others have suggested I’d give him designated days to catch. Cubs will need his at bat at DH with lesser alternatives against right handers.

I’m sure he’ll have opportunities in spring training too.

Edited February 6 by Geographyhater8888