Cerami: Cubs Finalizing Edward Cabrera Trade

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, thawv said:

With Cabrera's arb number included, they have about 33 million to spend.  I'd guess that Bo is about 27 AAV.  I can't think of any expensive deadline moves in the last 6 seasons.  Just small inexpensive moves.  And 2/3 of the players contract is already going to be paid for.  I think they can sign Bo without a concern about needing money for deadline moves.  Even if they trade for let's say Fairbanks it would only cost a little over 4 million. 

No one really knows what the front office really cares about. Starting the season with just $6m of wiggle room is tighter than you would like when you start factoring in the amount of roster churn, potential roster bonuses, etc. (See 2024) If the directive is to avoid paying a significant amount of tax, then really the concern is getting into the multiple years in a row situation, where the tax percentages shoot up. Given that we were under last year and would surely expect to be under in 2027, this approach is probably fine because if a situation pops up where we have to $5m over, you're talking about it actually being $6m without a long term concern.

If Ricketts is just using the luxury tax number (or some other number) as a strict, black line budget constraint, then it maybe ties Jed's hands a little bit more. Think we're all hoping it's some version of the first scenario, where the tax is minor enough that the first luxury tax number is more of a general target than a hard line. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, ILMindState said:

I wouldn't trade Wiggins on July 31st or January 8th. I think Caissie and Wiggins is a massive overpay anyway you look at it. If the price was Rojas instead of Hernandez? Yeah that would have hurt a little more but I wouldn't have hated it. 

Caissie and Wiggins might gets you Skenes not Cabrera

[Post Count Padder]

18 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Caissie and Wiggins might gets you Skenes not Cabrera

I get your point but that absolutely does not get you Skenes.

[squally1313]

I wonder what the hypothetical Skubal package is. Given that the Tigers are contenders, it would probably have to be a huge overpay. But wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. 

[Bull]

37 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I wonder what the hypothetical Skubal package is. Given that the Tigers are contenders, it would probably have to be a huge overpay. But wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. 

Nico and PCA would be the starting ask. Cubs say no. Shaw and Alcantara: Tigers say no.

Does Shaw and PCA get it done? who says no?

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, Bull said:

Does Shaw and PCA get it done? who says no?

Considering Skubal has 1 year of control left and the Cubs aren't going to extend him? Hopefully the Cubs.

[Outshined_One]

7 minutes ago, Bull said:

Nico and PCA would be the starting ask. Cubs say no. Shaw and Alcantara: Tigers say no.

Does Shaw and PCA get it done? who says no?

Cubs.  Shaw and PCA *might* be enough to get you Skenes by themselves if the Pirates believed in Shaw's bat, but Skubal's got one year of team control.  Something like last year's Kyle Tucker trade might be more in line with reality to get Skubal.

[Bertz]

56 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I wonder what the hypothetical Skubal package is. Given that the Tigers are contenders, it would probably have to be a huge overpay. But wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. 

I don't think it'd be super far off of Tucker.  I think pitcher attrition scariness largely counterbalances the fact that Skubal's a little better.

[squally1313]

35 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't think it'd be super far off of Tucker.  I think pitcher attrition scariness largely counterbalances the fact that Skubal's a little better.

Yeah that's about what I was thinking. We don't really have a Paredes equivalent (honestly, Cabrera might be your closest comp in terms of established MLB talent with team control). But it's like...Shaw and someone worse than Cam Smith but still top 8ish....Rojas? or something like that. 

[Stratos]

19 hours ago, Bertz said:

Your timing is not ideal for making the argument that a rotation that prioritizes talent over durability will have a hard time making it through the playoffs.

This is a strawman because my argument was that they should prioritize both talent and durability.

[Gjfificifjdej]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

This is a strawman because my argument was that they should prioritize both talent and durability.

Are these durable MLB pitchers in the room with us right now?

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Stratos said:

This is a strawman because my argument was that they should prioritize both talent and durability.

Jim: So what's your strategy for this race?

Pam: Well I'm gonna start fast.

Jim: Mm-hmm.

Pam: Then I'm gonna run fast in the middle.

Jim: What?

Pam: Then I'm gonna end fast.

Jim: Why won't more people do that? [laughs]

Pam: Cause they're just stupid.

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Are these durable MLB pitchers in the room with us right now?

Pretty much everyone gets hurt at some point these days but Cabrera is less durable than most, including the top guys on the market this winter.  The point is that we have Cabrera for 3 seasons and he's been exhibiting the red flags recently, so if he spends the back half of 2026 on the IL and/or we only get like a year and a half out of the guy then the trade is a fail.  This is a trade-and-pray move and Jed knows it but he's stuck in a corner due to limited payroll.

Anyways, everyone can just go ahead and huff the gas that a new acquisition brings and stick their heads in the sand.  Sorry to be a buzz kill.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Pretty much everyone gets hurt at some point these days but Cabrera is less durable than most, including the top guys on the market this winter.  The point is that we have Cabrera for 3 seasons and he's been exhibiting the red flags recently, so if he spends the back half of 2026 on the IL and/or we only get like a year and a half out of the guy then the trade is a fail.  This is a trade-and-pray move and Jed knows it but he's stuck in a corner due to limited payroll.

Anyways, everyone can just go ahead and huff the gas that a new acquisition brings and stick their heads in the sand.  Sorry to be a buzz kill.

I don't think every organization in baseball would agree with you.

[jersey cubs fan]

11 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Anyways, everyone can just go ahead and huff the gas that a new acquisition brings and stick their heads in the sand.  Sorry to be a buzz kill.

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, thawv said:

With Cabrera's arb number included, they have about 33 million to spend.  I'd guess that Bo is about 27 AAV.  I can't think of any expensive deadline moves in the last 6 seasons.  Just small inexpensive moves.  And 2/3 of the players contract is already going to be paid for.  I think they can sign Bo without a concern about needing money for deadline moves.  Even if they trade for let's say Fairbanks it would only cost a little over 4 million. 

I read they had $29M to the LT line. If they have $33M sure they can sign him and not go over. Not sure if they can with only $29M. 

[Cuzi]

Give the Cubs $60M in space and I still highly doubt they sign Bichette.

[javy knows my name]

40 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Pretty much everyone gets hurt at some point these days but Cabrera is less durable than most, including the top guys on the market this winter.  The point is that we have Cabrera for 3 seasons and he's been exhibiting the red flags recently, so if he spends the back half of 2026 on the IL and/or we only get like a year and a half out of the guy then the trade is a fail.  This is a trade-and-pray move and Jed knows it but he's stuck in a corner due to limited payroll.

Anyways, everyone can just go ahead and huff the gas that a new acquisition brings and stick their heads in the sand.  Sorry to be a buzz kill.

Why are you the way that you are

[CubinNY]

5 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I wonder what the hypothetical Skubal package is. Given that the Tigers are contenders, it would probably have to be a huge overpay. But wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. 

Better than what the Nationals got for Soto

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Give the Cubs $60M in space and I still highly doubt they sign Bichette.

Probably right. But still like to know what the Cubs actually have left. 

[chibears55]

...

Edited January 9 by chibears55

[Gjfificifjdej]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Pretty much everyone gets hurt at some point these days but Cabrera is less durable than most, including the top guys on the market this winter.  The point is that we have Cabrera for 3 seasons and he's been exhibiting the red flags recently, so if he spends the back half of 2026 on the IL and/or we only get like a year and a half out of the guy then the trade is a fail.  This is a trade-and-pray move and Jed knows it but he's stuck in a corner due to limited payroll.

Anyways, everyone can just go ahead and huff the gas that a new acquisition brings and stick their heads in the sand.  Sorry to be a buzz kill.

I’ll wait to be upset about a negative until it actually happens, sports are supposed to be fun. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think every organization in baseball would agree with you.

My argument isn't that they should sacrifice quality of innings for quantity.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Probably right. But still like to know what the Cubs actually have left. 

Didn't Jed say Ricketts let them go over the line list year for Bregman?  So i think some of the budget is based on circumstance.  I think if Jed can convince Tom the player & contract is a good one and worth the investment he'd go over the line a bit

[CubinNY]

4 hours ago, Stratos said:

Didn't Jed say Ricketts let them go over the line list year for Bregman?  So i think some of the budget is based on circumstance.  I think if Jed can convince Tom the player & contract is a good one and worth the investment he'd go over the line a bit

Well, he’s not very good at convincing.
 

.i’ll say it again- The Ricketts are the heroes of every story when the Cubs don’t get a player.