Nationals (Irvin) vs Cubs (Assad): 9/5/25, 1:20pm

[JHBulls]

horsefeathers hell. It’s like having two Alex Cohen’s in the booth. 

[BigSlick]

Hell yeah Dansby!! I am ready to declare his bizarre issues with RISP over

[chibears55]

Cubs players honoring Sammy today with a bunch of homers..

 

Reese Mark McGuire 

[mk49]

Two home runs, already.

[JHBulls]

Is it safe to say that Irvin sucks? 

[UMFan83]

22 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

I’ve found this

https://mlbwebcast.com/chicago-cubs-live/

Scroll down and the game is on the second clickable video. Hopefully it’s not a horsefeathers stream.

you beautiful person thank you

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

101 wRC on the year for Dansby.

His xwOBA was .360 going into today, which is his career high either by that metric or his actual output, and 51 points higher than his actual output so far this year. 

I probably need a smart person to explain why league wide xwOBA is 11 points higher than wOBA, but even if you should be discounting xwOBA a little bit, he's fourth in all of baseball, per Savant, in the difference between actual and expected. 

There isn't a single Cub player who is actually out performing their xwOBA on the season. Which is weird, the Cubs pull the baseball a lot and hit enough in the air.  

My guess is that this is a product of Wrigley Field and the issues with the wind, but it's simply a guess. 

The best way to out play your xwOBA is pulling the baseball in the air. So I'm guessing league wide there is enough shift in this thought that they are doing between that expected data says they should. But again, mostly guessing.

[UMFan83]

I fully expected with literally every advantage pointed the Cubs way offensively except Tucker being out that this dude would shut us down

[JHBulls]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

you beautiful person thank you

Of course dude, my pleasure! 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

101 wRC on the year for Dansby.

His xwOBA was .360 going into today, which is his career high either by that metric or his actual output, and 51 points higher than his actual output so far this year. 

I probably need a smart person to explain why league wide xwOBA is 11 points higher than wOBA, but even if you should be discounting xwOBA a little bit, he's fourth in all of baseball, per Savant, in the difference between actual and expected. 

I've wondered this too, at first I thought it was because ~half of Statcast's life was under the juiced ball, but looking year by year doesn't back that up

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=league-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results

If it were the ball '18/'19 would be huge outliers in the other direction.

I know I've seen some articles about how defense is getting better and better, so maybe that's driving it?  Though even that wouldn't explain the gap suddenly widening year over year.

I wonder if these numbers get a little bit of extra calibration at the end of the season?

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

101 wRC on the year for Dansby.

His xwOBA was .360 going into today, which is his career high either by that metric or his actual output, and 51 points higher than his actual output so far this year. 

I probably need a smart person to explain why league wide xwOBA is 11 points higher than wOBA, but even if you should be discounting xwOBA a little bit, he's fourth in all of baseball, per Savant, in the difference between actual and expected. 

My guess is defensive positioning is just that good. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I've wondered this too, at first I thought it was because ~half of Statcast's life was under the juiced ball, but looking year by year doesn't back that up

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=league-year&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results

If it were the ball '18/'19 would be huge outliers in the other direction.

I know I've seen some articles about how defense is getting better and better, so maybe that's driving it?  Though even that wouldn't explain the gap suddenly widening year over year.

I wonder if these numbers get a little bit of extra calibration at the end of the season?

Yeah I've started to get a little hesitant to lean on it just because like, if everyone is underperforming then no one is, right? 

I'm a little comforted(?) that Dansby, Seiya, Happ, Busch, and Tucker are all in the top 76 in terms of the difference between xwOBA and wOBA, and, like you said, we don't have any of the 77 players outperforming their xwOBA. But still weird. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

My guess is defensive positioning is just that good. 

But wouldn't you expect a dip in BABIP if that was the case? League wide it's .291, same exact number as last year (where the difference between xwOBA and wOBA was only 2 points). 

[bakester]

Sammy Sosa is so cool.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I've started to get a little hesitant to lean on it just because like, if everyone is underperforming then no one is, right? 

I'm a little comforted(?) that Dansby, Seiya, Happ, Busch, and Tucker are all in the top 76 in terms of the difference between xwOBA and wOBA, and, like you said, we don't have any of the 77 players outperforming their xwOBA. But still weird. 

I like xData in that I think it can help us identify weirdness. Where my issues with xData is in that it treats all balls the same. I had recently done an article on Shaw and the importance of pulling balls, and used his 377 foot flyball to CF off Clase as a framing device. Similarly hit balls to CF saw 0 HR's league wide and just 5 hits. IF you hit the same distance and EV to LF, you find 16 home runs and 5 balls in play. xBA will treat both the same, but we know pulling the ball gives you a far better outcome.

I'd hope that sometime we can get some directional expected data thrown in and I think it would help parse out some of the weirdness. 

For the Cubs, I think it's also important to note that pulling the ball is very good, but they have the deepest LF/RF down the line at Wrigley. Which also throws a wrench into xData.

[JHBulls]

No Apple, I am not going to buy your overpriced headphones. Thanks. 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I like xData in that I think it can help us identify weirdness. Where my issues with xData is in that it treats all balls the same. I had recently done an article on Shaw and the importance of pulling balls, and used his 377 foot flyball to CF off Clase as a framing device. Similarly hit balls to CF saw 0 HR's league wide and just 5 hits. IF you hit the same distance and EV to LF, you find 16 home runs and 5 balls in play. xBA will treat both the same, but we know pulling the ball gives you a far better outcome.

I'd hope that sometime we can get some directional expected data thrown in and I think it would help parse out some of the weirdness. 

Good point on the directional thing, so the implication for a team that might be expected to consistently underperform would be a team full of players who generally go back up the middle?

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

For the Cubs, I think it's also important to note that pulling the ball is very good, but they have the deepest LF/RF down the line at Wrigley. Which also throws a wrench into xData.

Fair point but one that hasn't really been borne out in recent data. Below starts in 2025 and then goes back in time. 

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I've started to get a little hesitant to lean on it just because like, if everyone is underperforming then no one is, right? 

I'm a little comforted(?) that Dansby, Seiya, Happ, Busch, and Tucker are all in the top 76 in terms of the difference between xwOBA and wOBA, and, like you said, we don't have any of the 77 players outperforming their xwOBA. But still weird. 

I think the Cubs being particularly hammered is probably a park effects thing.  Wrigley has turned into a heavy pitchers park, much to many's dismay.

But yeah probably best to use it directionally and not be too confident in the magnitude.  Like Dansby's gap the past three years has been ~15 points, while this year it's 50.  I feel safe saying he's been unlucky this year.  I feel less comfortable saying he's been exactly X runs of offense unlucky or he's definitely been as good a hitter as Ryan O'Hearn who has the same xwOBA.

[mk49]

Assad was perfect, until the last two batters.  PCA should have caught it, though.

Edited September 5, 2025 by mk49

[chibears55]

Losing a ball in the sun away to having 4 no hit innings , and now it 6-2

[Rcal10]

As great a defender as PCA is, he seems to struggle on windy days. More than other outfielders. 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Good point on the directional thing, so the implication for a team that might be expected to consistently underperform would be a team full of players who generally go back up the middle?

Fair point but one that hasn't really been borne out in recent data. Below starts in 2025 and then goes back in time. 

I would guess that it probably hasn't most years. But do wonder how the wind is playing with that this year. The Cubs have had one of the highest pull% in baseball this year and the wind at Wrigley has been brutal. So on days when you're hitting into the wind, and add in a little extra distance, I think the Cubs are probably getting dinged more than normal. I doubt it's a massive reason on it's own (distance) but when you start adding in other factors (wind) I suspect it's somewhere in that data set hiding as a factor itself.

In terms of pull/not-pull with xData, the Nationals have the fewest pull events are are underhitting their xData by .20 points, Pittsburgh is 2nd worst and is under hitting their xData by 20 points, and the Angels are under hitting theirs by .20 points and are 3rd lowest.

In terms of highest pull, the Royals, Astros and Diamonbacks are all over hitting their xData by .5+ points. These teams are 2nd, 3rd and 4th in pull events. Only the Cubs, at the top, are under hitting theirs. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Zaidman "It drops in down the LF line and will roll.... over the wall, for a ground rule double." 

What a clown

[mk49]

I really didn't want to see Castro starting today, but I guess I was wrong.

Edited September 5, 2025 by mk49

[Andy]

Just now, Rex Buckingham said:

Zaidman "It drops in down the LF line and will roll.... over the wall, for a ground rule double." 

What a clown

I was just coming in to share the same quote. Truly remarkable stuff.