Cardinals (Fedde) vs Cubs (Boyd): 7/6/25, 5:10pm

[Bertz]

Just now, mul21 said:

I don't see a great place to drop this, but on Wicks, is it possible they're setting him up to start on Thursday this week and that's why he was pulled at 40 pitches last night? That would put him between Rea and Horton to split him up from Shota and Boyd so teams aren't getting a similar look from lefties 3 days in a row.  As the rotation was, if he took Taillon's spot, they would have been lined up to go 3 days in a row.

In the Athletic this weekend they mentioned that the plan isn't to start Wicks, it's to continue to stretch out Flexen.  I suspect that's publicly because Flexen has earned it and privately to put Wicks in advantageous situations to try and showcase him for trade.

That said, the Yankees do absolutely mash lefties and the Twins very much don't, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do a Flexen/Wicks piggyback Thursday and push Rea back that extra day to Friday.  I don't think you feel great about either game regardless, but I think k that arrangement gives you a couple extra percentage points on each matchup.

[BKHoo]

Let’s go Dodgers!! 
 

Wouldn’t it be nice to increase the lead over the next series as we head into NY for the last one before the ASB?

[Brian707]

Just now, BKHoo said:

Let’s go Dodgers!! 
 

Wouldn’t it be nice to increase the lead over the next series as we head into NY for the last one before the ASB?

On the other hand, the Cubs are closing in on the #1 seed. I just hope one team sweeps the other

[bukie]

Michael Busch is now 5th in MLB in OPS behind Judge, Raleigh, Ohtani and Will Smith.

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, bukie said:

Michael Busch is now 5th in MLB in OPS behind Judge, Raleigh, Ohtani and Will Smith.

Also 5th in wRC+ and wOBA. 

[BKHoo]

29 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

On the other hand, the Cubs are closing in on the #1 seed. I just hope one team sweeps the other

I worry more about losing the division than not getting the #1 seed.  The Brewers have a legit rotation now if Woodruff is back to form. 

[Andy]

26 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Also 5th in wRC+ and wOBA. 

What if he did all this while holding his bat upside down

[bukie]

42 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

On the other hand, the Cubs are closing in on the #1 seed. I just hope one team sweeps the other

I just hope the Cubs continue winning because then other results don't matter.

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious how badly the next few weeks need to go to turn the Cardinals into sellers.

Their playoff odds are 32% at the moment, and they're just a game out of a wildcard spot.  That's generally "cautious buyer" territory.  However, they came into this season IMO pretty clearly wanting to sell.  Assuming they tread water the next few weeks, I wonder if they at least sell Helsley and Matz?

Given that they were planning this year as a "reset" year, I'd say not too badly. The way the playoff is formatted, though, anyone hanging around .500 is technically in it. They are a bad team by measurement and there is not a lot of waxing talent on that squad. Wilson looks like a pretty good 1st B, though. He should be able to fetch a decent prospect. 

[gflore34]

50 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I worry more about losing the division than not getting the #1 seed.  The Brewers have a legit rotation now if Woodruff is back to form. 

I watched most of the game, Woodruff did look good but, a couple of things, first, despite lately playing well, the Marlins are a legitimately terrible offensive team.  Team OPS+ of 94, with 5 guys in their lineup below 100,   Second, Woodruff appears to have lost some velocity, don't think his stuff is as electric as it once was and will quite probably never be again, for him, the Marlins we're an almost perfect first start.

Edited July 7, 2025 by gflore34

[chopsx9]

13 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Basically, we know that if you hit the ball in play, you are likely going to hit like .290 regardless of the year. Even during the steroid era, BABIP was .300 (1998), and .302 (1999)! It only affected things by .10.

 

I don't think I'm disagreeing with anything you've said.  I've always had a bit of an issue with BABIP or, probably more accurately, the way it is used.

The .290 is indisputable; it's just math.  But it's the average across the league.   It seems anytime any hitter differs from that number they are classified as lucky or unlucky.  But every players resting(?) BABIP is different.  Sure .290 is the average but for some players its much higher; others much lower - for the reasons you listed.  

Happ's career BABIP is .308 - which I think makes sense - he hits a few HRs, SOs a lot and walks a lot.  To have lasted as long as he has you'd expect him to come in above the .290.  I don't think he's been lucky his entire career. Contrast him to Joey Gallo (an almost pure 3 outcome guy) who was out of the league by 30 with a .254 BABIP who I don't think was unlucky.

Then take a player like Rey Ordonez who put the ball in play at very high rate.  Didn't SO, didn't hit HRs  and didn't really walk.  His career BABIP was well below .290 at .271.  Some people are just crappy hitters.

I guess my point is that .290 isn't just some magic number that players all gravitate towards.  I mean if Tony Gwynn had a .310 BABIP for a month he'd have been in a slump.

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

I don't think I'm disagreeing with anything you've said.  I've always had a bit of an issue with BABIP or, probably more accurately, the way it is used.

The .290 is indisputable; it's just math.  But it's the average across the league.   It seems anytime any hitter differs from that number they are classified as lucky or unlucky.  But every players resting(?) BABIP is different.  Sure .290 is the average but for some players its much higher; others much lower - for the reasons you listed.  

Happ's career BABIP is .308 - which I think makes sense - he hits a few HRs, SOs a lot and walks a lot.  To have lasted as long as he has you'd expect him to come in above the .290.  I don't think he's been lucky his entire career. Contrast him to Joey Gallo (an almost pure 3 outcome guy) who was out of the league by 30 with a .254 BABIP who I don't think was unlucky.

Then take a player like Rey Ordonez who put the ball in play at very high rate.  Didn't SO, didn't hit HRs  and didn't really walk.  His career BABIP was well below .290 at .271.  Some people are just crappy hitters.

I guess my point is that .290 isn't just some magic number that players all gravitate towards.  I mean if Tony Gwynn had a .310 BABIP for a month he'd have been in a slump.

Right. When I said that, it's a league average type of a thing. When I say "we know you'd hit .290" it isn't "every player hits .290 and any difference is unlucky" but that "over the course of the last five years BABIP is pretty stable, so any important deviation from .290 suggests something". 

That something can be that you are a bad hitter; weak contact=worse BABIP (usually). It can mean you're fast, so you have a higher BABIP. It could mean luck or bad luck. It can mean a bunch of things. 

Then we can factor in our career BABIP and career batted ball data. 

It's a deep well. As I said, BABIP on it's own tells us a little. But BABIP with context tells us a ton.

[PeanutPunch33]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

In the Athletic this weekend they mentioned that the plan isn't to start Wicks, it's to continue to stretch out Flexen.  I suspect that's publicly because Flexen has earned it and privately to put Wicks in advantageous situations to try and showcase him for trade.

That said, the Yankees do absolutely mash lefties and the Twins very much don't, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do a Flexen/Wicks piggyback Thursday and push Rea back that extra day to Friday.  I don't think you feel great about either game regardless, but I think k that arrangement gives you a couple extra percentage points on each matchup.

Wicks definitely impressed yesterday. Would be great if he can stick with the big league club and be another lefty option out of the pen.  

[Dfan25]

Andrew Vaughns 1st AB with Brewers ? 3 run dong off Yamamoto . Watch him become Frank Thomas now 

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Andrew Vaughns 1st AB with Brewers ? 3 run dong off Yamamoto . Watch him become Frank Thomas now 

Didn't even complete the 1st inning. Man I hate the horsefeathers Brewers so much.

[BKHoo]

I’m sure it will change but Mookie Betts so far this year is a below average player. He just had a big error to let in two more runs. 

[squally1313]

I looked up Mookie on FG and saw he was at 1.9 fWAR, which is comfortably a 3.5 pace even with no positive regression to his career norms, which is decidedly not average, much less below average. 
 

and then I went to league leaders and realized the closest player to him in fWAR this year is Dansby and now the comment makes way more sense 

[BKHoo]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I looked up Mookie on FG and saw he was at 1.9 fWAR, which is comfortably a 3.5 pace even with no positive regression to his career norms, which is decidedly not average, much less below average. 
 

and then I went to league leaders and realized the closest player to him in fWAR this year is Dansby and now the comment makes way more sense 

.248 / .321 / .392  

I should have said he has not been good compared to his standard. 

[gflore34]

11 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Andrew Vaughns 1st AB with Brewers ? 3 run dong off Yamamoto . Watch him become Frank Thomas now 

I doubt it, it's annoying as hell but, even a broken clock is correct twice a day.  Vaughn is really not good, his best season - 2023 - resulted in 1.1 WAR with an OPS+ of 102.

[gflore34]

11 hours ago, BKHoo said:

I’m sure it will change but Mookie Betts so far this year is a below average player. He just had a big error to let in two more runs. 

The Dodgers continuance with Betts at SS is one thing I don't understand. He's not a reliable glove out there and the Dodgers' defense isn't exactly stellar.  Put him back where he belongs, in the outfield, and bench Conforto.

[squally1313]

35 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

The Dodgers continuance with Betts at SS is one thing I don't understand. He's not a reliable glove out there and the Dodgers' defense isn't exactly stellar.  Put him back where he belongs, in the outfield, and bench Conforto.

He’s 9th among shortstops in defensive fWAR, which is noisy in sub 100 game sample, but just basic competency there goes a long way. League average hitter YTD in the outfield doesn’t get you very far, league average hitter with his shortstop defense basically puts you on par, value wise, with a normal Ian Happ year. Conforto has been bad (and seemingly very unlucky, xwOBA wise), but replacing a corner outfielder is 10x easier than finding a shortstop mid season.