Cardinals (Fedde) vs Cubs (Boyd): 7/6/25, 5:10pm

[Donzo]

1 minute ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Maybe due to the off day tomorrow they are waiting a few games to give Wicks a start

Yeah, I think it's just the schedule. 

Off tomorrow then six games before the All-Star break. They can be creative to get to the break. If Wicks goes four innings here, he's in position to start one of the games in NY. 

[gocubs218]

Wicks will still be in line to take Taillon’s next start on Friday with normal rest. Guessing they wanted to get him a couple innings of non-leverage work so he doesn’t have 12 days off or whatever between starts. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Derwood said:

The results were not fine, though. "doing everything right" does not mean that the results were good. This is a results-based game. I'm not saying Happ needs to do things differently, but let's not get buried in the analysis to the point where we're giving a player credit for what statistically SHOULD have happened rather than what DID happen

No, it doesn't mean the "results were good". But doesn't mean Ian Happ isn't and wasn't fine. Listen, if I drive to work, I drive the speed limit, I use my signal, and when I drive through an intersection with a green light, I'm driving fine. If I get plowed into by someone who has a red light, I'm still fine (as a driver, I might have a broken leg). The result is that my car is horsefeathered up, I'm unable to go to work and I have to deal with the police, but I drove just fine. So results are bad, but we know I was fine.

Ian Happ is doing everything fine. The results should have been fine. If he continues those processes, much like if I obey speed limits, use signals and observe traffic laws, he will be fine. Bad luck happens. In baseball, with hundreds of hitters who have 600+ instances over 162 games (versus my one driving anecdote) there are bound to be funky data sets within. We have found one with Ian Happ.

He's been fine. He will be fine.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If we can speedrun the way these arguments normally go:

* Happ's 2025 hasn't been as good as previous years, though far from disastrous

* There's nothing to indicate this is a new norm or that he's not able to turn things around on a dime, he has always had periods of hot and cold

* Changing players position in the lineup for every 15 game deviation from their norm is silly and counterproductive

* For whatever reason Happ attracts this type of laser focus on benching/trading/dropping him when he slumps, it's like some folks refuse to admit he's good so every stretch of poor form is validation that matches with their false priors

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, bukie said:

Call me an optimist, but I have a feeling there will be another starter on the roster by July 22nd.

I think that's a decent bet for sure. We are probably getting closer and closer to a point where you can buy a team off of those 2-3 weeks.

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

No, it doesn't mean the "results were good". But doesn't mean Ian Happ isn't and wasn't fine. Listen, if I drive to work, I drive the speed limit, I use my signal, and when I drive through an intersection with a green light, I'm driving fine. If I get plowed into by someone who has a red light, I'm still fine (as a driver, I might have a broken leg). The result is that my car is horsefeathered up, I'm unable to go to work and I have to deal with the police, but I drove just fine. So results are bad, but we know I was fine.

Ian Happ is doing everything fine. The results should have been fine. If he continues those processes, much like if I obey speed limits, use signals and observe traffic laws, he will be fine. Bad luck happens. In baseball, with hundreds of hitters who have 600+ instances over 162 games (versus my one driving anecdote) there are bound to be funky data sets within. We have found one with Ian Happ.

He's been fine. He will be fine.

But when people complain about him, they're complaining about RESULTS, not approach/bad luck/etc. So when every complaint about RESULTS is countered with "yes but his xWOBA..." then people get frustrated

[Tryptamine]

First off, is that gun hot or is Wicks hitting 96 now? Also, outside of the first couple hitters he faced, he looked really good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Derwood said:

But when people complain about him, they're complaining about RESULTS, not approach/bad luck/etc. So when every complaint about RESULTS is countered with "yes but his xWOBA..." then people get frustrated

The complaint was "he's having a terrible season and definitely shouldn't be leading off any more", which is 1) objectively false when looking at RESULTS 2) imploring the team to do something based on what they think will happen, which is very much not a RESULT

[Nolansomebody]

That version of Take Me Out to The Ball Game was something.

[DYMNO]

Ugh. I would legit trade Brujan for Brian Roberts and Jake Peavy. What are they up to these days?

[chibears55]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

What is "lmao" about that? We have plenty of ability to parse data. You're using batting average, but not using things like BABIP and his batted ball data to determine whether it's earned or not. His BA on the season entering the game was .231 compared to his xBA which was .255. That is a .32 point spread. His career BABIP is .308 while his BABIP this year was .274; a .28 point spread. See how close those two things are? His career wOBA is .340 and his xWOBA is .343. Again, notice how close they are?

There is plenty of data to support my point here. Please, defend yours more than a dismissing "lmao" and we can discuss it 

Im not gonna argue..

Most of these new age stats are based on would of, could of, and we'll just call it bad luck.

We all know the bottom line is the results and his results hasn't been all that great the last month or so despite these weird stats of would of, could of bad luck.

A handful of games of bad luck of some balls dropping here and there ok, but we're far pass that now.

So, we can leave this as we both have different views on a struggling player. You can go with the funky stats, ill stick with shows actual results.

I'll also add in that i doubt any GM looks at those type of stats when it comes to a FA or paying a guy over what their actual results were.

[Derwood]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The complaint was "he's having a terrible season and definitely shouldn't be leading off any more", which is 1) objectively false when looking at RESULTS 2) imploring the team to do something based on what they think will happen, which is very much not a RESULT

 

That particular complaint was, yes. Do you think it's fair for someone to complain that the player who is batting leadoff is 23 for his last 122 since June 1?

[Hot Sauce]

2 minutes ago, DYMNO said:

Ugh. I would legit trade Brujan for Brian Roberts and Jake Peavy. What are they up to these days?

Would you trade Bruján for Ian Stewart?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Derwood said:

Do you think it's fair for someone to complain that the player who is batting leadoff is 23 for his last 122 since June 1?

No.  It's especially not fair when that player is Ian Happ with his track record and peripherals.  And it's especially egregious in its insensitivity to carry on about it while the team leads 11-0.

[Tim]

Over his last 147 PA, Happ has a wRC+ of 112.

He's been fine.

[DYMNO]

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce said:

Would you trade Bruján for Ian Stewart?

Sure would!

[Tim]

That 147 PA dates back to 5/31, btw.

[bukie]

Positive things about the Cubs offense:

As of this minute, live stats have 20 players in MLB with a wRC+ of 140 or more. Four of those players are on the Cubs (Busch, Tucker, Suzuki, PCA).

[Donzo]

Wicks' first two innings. This is good.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Derwood said:

But when people complain about him, they're complaining about RESULTS, not approach/bad luck/etc. So when every complaint about RESULTS is countered with "yes but his xWOBA..." then people get frustrated

I responded to someone who's complaint was about his batting average and that he should be dropped in the order. I pointed out his BABIP was low, suggesting that complaining about his batting average was likely misplaced. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Donzo said:

Wicks' first two innings. This is good.

Hit 96, too.

[Cubs420psd]

What does Brujan do well? He's insanely bad at baseball.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2025 by Cubs420psd

[JHBulls]

You do wonder how much talking and congratulating of opposition players actually occur every day between teams or if it only happens during national games when players are mic’s up. I reckon it’s more the latter. 

Edited July 7, 2025 by JHBulls

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

Would you trade Bruján for Ian Stewart?

Ugh. I liked the Ian Stewart when they made that trade. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Cubs420psd said:

What does Brujan do well? He's insanely bad at baseball.

 

 

At this point? No idea. Last I checked he had a 9 wRC+. It's in like 30 PA's, but at this point, I don't really care.