Pete Crow-Armstrong Has Earned His Whole Contract Extension, Before it Even Begins

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Pete Crow-Armstrong tied Billy Williams for the most home runs by a left-handed Cubs batter in a season Monday night, when he cracked his 42nd long ball of the campaign in a win over the visitors from Atlanta. That was Crow-Armstrong's third of four hits on the night. He had a two-run double, that two-run bomb, and a pair of sharp singles. He also stole a base, his 37th, as he races toward 40/40 status.

That game was the 19th this season in which Crow-Armstrong has produced at least two full runs of added value at the plate himself, according to Baseball Reference's run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states (RE24). Since 2015, the only players with 20 or more such games are:

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs won, 7-3. They're 17-2 in the games Crow-Armstrong has taken over offensively this year, and haven't lost such a contest since June 20. That's just one way to express what everyone with two eyes and a brain geared toward baseball knows: the Cubs' superstar center fielder is the league's most valuable player.

Thanks to what was their third win in four games, the Cubs have leveled off after their latest rough patch. There's still uncertainty about whether they'll be able to host the Wild Card Series, but they've all but assured themselves of at least making the postseason.

Unequivocally, though, they'd be destined for early flights home if not for Crow-Armstrong. His added value on both offense and defense has been the difference between this team and a forgettable 80-win outfit. Singllehandedly, he's made them a playoff team this season. That raises a fascinating question: has he already earned every dollar of his six-year contract extension, before it technically begins?

The deal Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs signed on March 25 is worth $115 million over six seasons, but it doesn't actually kick in until 2027. Crow-Armstrong did receive a $5-million signing bonus, but his salary won't spike until next year, when he makes $10 million for the first of three straight seasons. He's then due $20 million in 2030 and $30 million in each of 2031 and 2032.

All things considered, he's been worth $115 million to the Cubs this year, alone. On the field, he's produced so much value that the team will make the playoffs, which is worth at least $25 million to this franchise on its own. Being good enough to get there also means more tickets sold, this year and next, at regular-season games. Add the enormous marketability of Crow-Armstrong and the merchandise sales he's driving, and you're well over halfway to $115 million in value added this year. (Remember, his actual salary for 2026 is under $800,000.)

Had he not signed this deal, Crow-Armstrong would be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player this fall. He'd probably have broken the previous salary record of $11.5 million for first-year arbitration-eligible players, and that would have put him on a path to earning as much as $90 million over the four remaining years of his team control. As it is, his contract will pay him $50 million over those years. His salaries for 2031 and 2032—the two free-agent years the Cubs bought out in the deal—can rise based on MVP voting, but not this year's. He doesn't get any escalators based on winning this year's award; he only receives them if he wins or places highly for another one.

Though obviously team-friendly, Crow-Armstrong's contract didn't look entirely risk-free when he signed it. It certainly didn't look like one of the steals of the century, wherein teams capture tons of surplus value on similar deals for players who haven't yet broken out. Less than six months later, though, the deal has entirely paid for itself. If Crow-Armstrong has a few more games wherein he wills the team to a win singlehandedly in him, that will be even more apparent come late October.