Starting rotation options available now

[Rcal10]

I think I would like to see the Cubs get the best rental pitcher they could without giving up a top 6-8 prospect on the team. That could be a guy like Kelly. Others to consider are Lugo, Soroka, Morton and even Gallen. I also would be ok with them adding a bench bat/3rd baseman as a rental as well. Probably not Suarez, since he might cost too much for a rental. But Castro would be a good pick up. They can add enough to win this year and still keep their best prospects if they stick with rentals. And unless Ryan or Gore are realistically available, I would rather do that then trade for just a decent pitcher (Keller, as an example) and have to lose a top 5 prospect just because they have control over him a few years. 

[Geographyhater8888]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think I would like to see the Cubs get the best rental pitcher they could without giving up a top 6-8 prospect on the team. That could be a guy like Kelly. Others to consider are Lugo, Soroka, Morton and even Gallen. I also would be ok with them adding a bench bat/3rd baseman as a rental as well. Probably not Suarez, since he might cost too much for a rental. But Castro would be a good pick up. They can add enough to win this year and still keep their best prospects if they stick with rentals. And unless Ryan or Gore are realistically available, I would rather do that then trade for just a decent pitcher (Keller, as an example) and have to lose a top 5 prospect just because they have control over him a few years. 

Especially when next years rotation barring injuries is basically a lock for Shota Steele Boyd Taillon and Horton, team control shouldn’t matter at all for all the reasons you laid out.

Castro from the Twins I’d be happy with.

[Randall Simon]

Where are all the trade rumors? Old PSD threads were chalk full of the latest rumors circling from early June through the deadline. I need my Nomar, Roberts and Peavy murmurs!  

[Derwood]

12 minutes ago, Randall Simon said:

Where are all the trade rumors? Old PSD threads were chalk full of the latest rumors circling from early June through the deadline. I need my Nomar, Roberts and Peavy murmurs!  

The Hot Stove isn't very hot this year

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The Mike Soroka prototype was what I was referring to. Not a reclamation project or finding lightening in a bottle for an a baller.

Joe Ryan is obviously the biggest prize, is he worth Owen Cassie with tuckers uncertain future, especially if you’re throwing in another top 5 prospect from the farm for Ryan?
 

He’s been impressive but also pitches in the weakest division in baseball which has inflated might inflate his numbers. I ask these questions because I don’t know sh!t. I’d like Castro too. I can make arguments for both, the team is basically a starter away after all.

off topic, to what degree do you see PCA sustaining his success at the plate and at what point will learning to take more pitches become a priority. I worry about how his game will age, although we’re years away from that mattering.

Whats your ceiling for Shaw and Horton if you don’t mind me pestering you every morning? From the naked eye I see Horton as a number 2 best case scenario. He’s getting whiffs but the strikeouts haven’t been there. If he averaged 98 mph instead of 96 I’d have a more optimistic outlook, because he lacks a truly filthy out pitch.

 

Im going to work on a Soroka article over the next few days, so I'll see what I parse out. But my initial looks have me very high on the prospects of getting him outside of Washington. 

I think Cade Horton is a stud and likely the best pitching prospect the Cubs have had on paper since Mark Prior. His ability to have a plus fastball and plus, bordering plus plus sweeper with a plus changeup puts his ceiling among the top-20 best SP in baseball. His RPM mirror Dylan Cease except he doesnt have the walk issues. If he can clean up I zone command on his fastball, I think he is a monster. 

Matt Shaw's ceiling is that of a 115(or better) wRC+ 3b with plus glove skills. Now we have to see it more. His recent mechanical changes are getting me more and more hopeful. 

This is ceiling. Will either get there? Hard to tell. And frankly, probably not. Ceiling is hard to reach!

[Donzo]

I just looked at what Boston paid for Crochet to kinda get an idea what it wold cost the Cubs to get Ryan.

The farm system would look a lot different after the trade, but I wouldn't object.

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, Donzo said:

I just looked at what Boston paid for Crochet to kinda get an idea what it wold cost the Cubs to get Ryan.

The farm system would look a lot different after the trade, but I wouldn't object.

Joe Ryan is very good, but he's not Garret Crochet.  Not especially close really.  

[Neuby]

Surprised Jed hasn't pulled the trigger on a backend starter type yet instead of having Brown start tomorrow. I'm a firm believer Jed adds two starters , a reliever , and a third baseman at the deadline.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Surprised Jed hasn't pulled the trigger on a backend starter type yet instead of having Brown start tomorrow. I'm a firm believer Jed adds two starters , a reliever , and a third baseman at the deadline.

I think you are going to be disappointed. I don’t think he gets 4 new players. Hoping for at least 2, would be happy if it was 3 and surprised if it was 4. 

[Outshined_One]

18 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Surprised Jed hasn't pulled the trigger on a backend starter type yet instead of having Brown start tomorrow. I'm a firm believer Jed adds two starters , a reliever , and a third baseman at the deadline.

The extra wild card spots have killed the deadline. If this were 20 years ago, teams like the Diamondbacks and Guardians would be packing up shop, but they're still close enough to think they're in the race.

[Tryptamine]

With Jed it's almost always, whatever tier you're expecting, you need to realistically go down at least one tier and that's where Jed is shopping. Don't get me wrong, it's worked on a few occasions now especially with Shota and Boyd, but he almost never shops at the top of the market.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

With Jed it's almost always, whatever tier you're expecting, you need to realistically go down at least one tier and that's where Jed is shopping. Don't get me wrong, it's worked on a few occasions now especially with Shota and Boyd, but he almost never shops at the top of the market.

I don’t really agree with that. He traded for Candelario, who was the top of the market bat when they did it. He was also aggressive last year getting Parades. The issue might be there are no top of the market guys available this deadline. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

24 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t really agree with that. He traded for Candelario, who was the top of the market bat when they did it. He was also aggressive last year getting Parades. The issue might be there are no top of the market guys available this deadline. 

Someone is always at the top of the market as you pointed out in the first half of your post. The top of the market doesn’t always mean the highest quality though.

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Someone is always at the top of the market as you pointed out in the first half of your post. The top of the market doesn’t always mean the highest quality though.

True. I guess I just don’t agree with the notion that Jed will be shopping down a tier from the top “because that is what he always does”. He doesn’t always do that at the TDL. 

[squally1313]

Was Kyle Tucker not ‘the top of the market’ or do we need to add a couple more stipulations to trash hoyer still

[We Got The Whole 9]

17 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Was Kyle Tucker not ‘the top of the market’ or do we need to add a couple more stipulations to trash hoyer still

Some people act like there are 10 deals on the table and Jed only has to say yes 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Some people act like there are 10 deals on the table and Jed only has to say yes 

Well it is Jed. So of course he has to screw things up, right???? 😬

[BigbadB]

There's no reason to be afraid to pull the trigger on a premium upgrade this year. They already kinda went all in on a rent a player in Tucker. You look foolish if you don't do more when you are sitting in the driver's seat in your division, but still being challenged. Especially if Tucker doesn't sign long term.

There is no doubt room to add a SP that can be a playoff starter, because this team is highly likely to be in the playoffs. Everything after that is added bonus. There is enough talent in the minors to make the upgrades to get whoever they want. Ryan and Suarez would be a great trade deadline get. Ryan and Castro or Kelly and Suarez would be great deadline grabs. But I'd be fine with a top line starter and a bench bat that can play 3rd better than either of the two current options. Amaya will be back and contributing soon, too. Assad should be a boost to the pen with a fresh arm. Amaya and Assad will feel like deadline upgrades since we haven't had their production most or all of the year, and are likely improvements over what is already on the roster. Getting Carson more rest will be good for him as well.

Bottom line, they left money on the table preseason. The offer for Bregman should be the bare minimum they have to spend (with less than half a season to play, which ends up being a lot of money). The talent in the minors is plentiful. Now just don't be slow to make some trades. Get your offers out there to the teams that have the players you covet. The Cubs are not the only team looking to upgrade. Even the teams on the bubble should be fielding phone calls from Jed. This is his moment. So I don't want to see him in the booth doing interviews with Boog and JD right now. I'd rather think he's working the phones with his own team of scouts and other team's GM's instead of wasting time telling us what he's up to. Plenty of time for that after August 1.

It will be very frustrating if some guys the Cubs could really want or need go somewhere else for less than what could have been offered by Jed because he was slow to the show or unwilling to close out what he started when he traded for Tucker. 

[Bertz]

If you look at enough rumors around this team from reasonable sources (e.g not Jim Bowden), a couple themes emerge:

- This is a golden opportunity and they're not going to pass it by

- At the same time they DO NOT want to go all in this year though.  Sustained success etc. was not just lip service

- The team feels supremely confident in getting the most out of players, especially pitchers.  They may decide to get creative filling one or more holes.  Mooney had an article talking extensively about the 2021 Braves last week, which definitely set off bells in my head 

- On the position player side, the name of the game is managing risk.  The riskiest spot in the lineup is obviously 3B, so expect coverage there, but it's not going to be just adding a 3B and calling it a day

- It hasn't been talked about as much, but as BBB mentioned above there's *A LOT* of money available.  Even if you want to be super mega ultra careful to not cross the LT this year, there's about $20M to spend?  Which considering we're 2/3rds of the way through the year can buy you essentially anything you want

So take it all together, and this is what I expect:

- I expect the team's biggest move will be for someone with multiple years of control.  I do not expect any of the top handful of rentals to end up here

- I expect everything else beyond the big move to get a collective "that's it?"

- I expect the team to add at least one pitcher with a 5+ ERA and peripherals that say it should be two runs lower 

- I expect the team to take on some bad 2025 money to defray prospect costs.  Someone like Raisel Iglesias is perfect, because he checks this box and the one above

- If the team adds two SPs, I expect the second to be surprising.  For instance Shane Bieber is making rehab starts right now, but won't be back in the bigs until mid August, but the Cubs would have the reems of trackman data from his rehab starts to see dedinitively how he's recovering

- I expect Willi Castro and Sandy Alcantara will be a Cubs

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

If you look at enough rumors around this team from reasonable sources (e.g not Jim Bowden), a couple themes emerge:

- This is a golden opportunity and they're not going to pass it by

- At the same time they DO NOT want to go all in this year though.  Sustained success etc. was not just lip service

- The team feels supremely confident in getting the most out of players, especially pitchers.  They may decide to get creative filling one or more holes.  Mooney had an article talking extensively about the 2021 Braves last week, which definitely set off bells in my head 

- On the position player side, the name of the game is managing risk.  The riskiest spot in the lineup is obviously 3B, so expect coverage there, but it's not going to be just adding a 3B and calling it a day

- It hasn't been talked about as much, but as BBB mentioned above there's *A LOT* of money available.  Even if you want to be super mega ultra careful to not cross the LT this year, there's about $20M to spend?  Which considering we're 2/3rds of the way through the year can buy you essentially anything you want

So take it all together, and this is what I expect:

- I expect the team's biggest move will be for someone with multiple years of control.  I do not expect any of the top handful of rentals to end up here

- I expect everything else beyond the big move to get a collective "that's it?"

- I expect the team to add at least one pitcher with a 5+ ERA and peripherals that say it should be two runs lower 

- I expect the team to take on some bad 2025 money to defray prospect costs.  Someone like Raisel Iglesias is perfect, because he checks this box and the one above

- If the team adds two SPs, I expect the second to be surprising.  For instance Shane Bieber is making rehab starts right now, but won't be back in the bigs until mid August, but the Cubs would have the reems of trackman data from his rehab starts to see dedinitively how he's recovering

- I expect Willi Castro and Sandy Alcantara will be a Cubs

Bold prediction. Not sure I like the idea of Alcantara. Do the Cubs have to trade Cassie or Wiggins for him? If so, pass. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is Castro not one of the top handful of rentals?  Especially on the position player side?

 

In any case I generally agree. I think there's going to be some clear aggression, but Jed has made comments on multiple occasions about not being beholden to recency bias(Iglesias and Finnegan would be good examples), as well as valuing more than just this season.  Because of the complications involving Shaw and the variability of RP, that means that I especially expect the main SP addition to have team control beyond this year.  

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Bold prediction. Not sure I like the idea of Alcantara. Do the Cubs have to trade Cassie or Wiggins for him? If so, pass. 

Alcantara is an interesting case. His LOB% is ridiculously low, lower than Mike Soroka who I just wrote about on the main page. Unlike Soroka, Miami's defense is more neutral and likely not a major cause but also isn't helping him. Stuff+ and velocity suggest he's just fine. His K% and control are issues. 

We're one start removed from Dany Syzmborski (the creator of ZiPS) writing this article suggesting Sandy is coming around. 

I think a smart team will have a fix. You almost certainly have to give up to get Sandy, so I would expect they would have to give up a Caissie or a Wiggins. But I also think if the Cubs do that, than the feeling we should have is that the Cubs are a smart team who have a fix. The stuff is there which fully suggests this is fixable.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Stuff+ loves Alcantara. All 5 of his pitches are well above average. But holy horsefeathers has he been baaaaad in 2/3 of his starts. And he costs MORP $ next year. I would probably not offer a top 10 for him TBH. But the fact that we are the most prominently linked team to him has me thinking its gonna happen at some point. 

 

Offering a top 5 for him is totally asinine IMO. Shouldn't even be a consideration.

[BigSlick]

8 hours ago, BigbadB said:

 

There is no doubt room to add a SP that can be a playoff starter, because this team is highly likely to be in the playoffs. Everything after that is added bonus. There is enough talent in the minors to make the upgrades to get whoever they want. Ryan and Suarez would be a great trade deadline get. Ryan and Castro or Kelly and Suarez would be great deadline grabs. But I'd be fine with a top line starter and a bench bat that can play 3rd better than either of the two current options. Amaya will be back and contributing soon, too. Assad should be a boost to the pen with a fresh arm. Amaya and Assad will feel like deadline upgrades since we haven't had their production most or all of the year, and are likely improvements over what is already on the roster. Getting Carson more rest will be good for him as well.

 

I don't follow these things too closely but is Javier Assad totally off the table to think he could start at all this season/post-season? The best we could expect is him pitching in relief? 

[Donzo]

Assad makes a rehab start on Thursday. If all goes well he'll be back in early August.