Twins (Lopez) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 8/6/24, 7:05pm

[Tryptamine]

Bad news gentlemen, the WSox are up 2-0.

[JD94]

24 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Be nice but you know deep down that won't happen, especially if Hoyer still here this offseason. 

A new POBO might look to make that splash but Hoyer is likely looking to build up from within again.

The way I see it, if he doesn’t sign Soto, or at the very least match the top offer (you can’t control if he just prefers somewhere else if the money is equal), then we will never sign a superstar. At least not under Hoyer. Soto is literally the guy you do it for. He’s 26 and the best pure hitter we’ve seen in ages. With his profile, he likely has 7 more prime seasons in him before you start to see considerable decline imo. 

[Tryptamine]

Considering Sasaki is basically gift wrapped to the Dodgers, they should be all in on Soto, but I don't believe they'll be even remotely close to the winning offer.

[JD94]

17 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Considering Sasaki is basically gift wrapped to the Dodgers, they should be all in on Soto, but I don't believe they'll be even remotely close to the winning offer.

That’s if Sasaki gets posted. The general consensus is he will, but he could wait 2 years and get mega $$$ compared to what he would make coming over this offseason. On the other hand, his injury history is concerning. After an oblique injury last year, and now this year just returning recently from an arm injury, if he finishes strong, he might want to go ahead and get here. His underlying numbers across the board are much closer to MLB average this year than years prior. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a massive “prospect.” Regardless, I don’t believe Sasaki stops LAD from going after Soto. If Sasaki is posted and comes this year, it’s with little financial commitment considering he hasn’t met the terms to be exempt from the international bonus pool restrictions. 

[PeanutPunch33]

Nice W

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Considering Sasaki is basically gift wrapped to the Dodgers, they should be all in on Soto, but I don't believe they'll be even remotely close to the winning offer.

I think there's a higher likelihood they sign Soto over Ohtani, Correa/Turner/Bogaerts, Harper, and Machado.

With Correa (cheating), Harper, and Machado there were some "personality/clubhouse" concerns, plus for the latter 2 the Cubs were pretty tapped out on their payroll limit at the time.  Ohtani we may have given a great offer but he was going to the Dodgers no matter what.  And Turner/Bogaerts were both 30 years old and their contracts IMO were quite overpriced even for a big contracts.

The thing that could stand in the way may be the fact that Soto plays a position we don't have a need for, we just could use the offensive upgrade.  But eventually getting rid of 2 of Bellinger/Happ/Suzuki would make roster and payroll room for Soto and Caissie.

OF + DH could look something like Soto/PCA/Caissie/Suzuki.  We have Suzuki under contract through 2026 and before the contract is done Alcantara and/or Ballesteros/Triantos (at DH) should be ready, meaning Seiya could be traded.  Over the next 2 seasons we should be able to get some solid prospects for Happ & Suzuki, plus Nico if they see Shaw replacing him at some point.

I like the Cubs staying fairly young (as many guys as possible still in their prime years) & able to consistently reload the farm by turning the roster over.  Even with Soto they get to stay in his prime for several years, and could trade him when he hits his 30's before his value crumbles.

[JBears79]

If Jed doesnt match every single Soto offer no matter what the incentives are I will be pissed. If we lose but matched every aspect of the contract and he just wanted to be elsewhere I can forgive that

[I owned a Suzuki]

6 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Bad news gentlemen, the WSox are up 2-0.

Winning Friday night was going to be my last real care for this season...effing Sox ruined it

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, JBears79 said:

If Jed doesnt match every single Soto offer no matter what the incentives are I will be pissed. If we lose but matched every aspect of the contract and he just wanted to be elsewhere I can forgive that

That will be Hoyer's excuse.  There's no way Hoyer/Ricketts gets anywhere near Soto's top bid.

[JD94]

I would be extremely comfortable giving Soto 13/494. That’s a AAV of $38M per year up until age 40 and again, you’re getting (most likely, nothing is guaranteed though) over half those years as prime years. Soto should still be an elite offensive player at 32/33. Even his decline years should look better than most superstars decline with his profile. It’s a freaking no brainer of all no brainers to me. You can’t lose him over money. Even if the bidding gets into the low 500’s. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

That will be Hoyer's excuse.  There's no way Hoyer/Ricketts gets anywhere near Soto's top bid.

Does anyone think the Ricketts will sign off on a contract that will pay a DH $45M a year at age 36?

[gflore34]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Does anyone think the Ricketts will sign off on a contract that will pay a DH $45M a year at age 36?

Given past actions, I fully expect the Cubs to be all "in" on Soto only to have him stay in New York or sign elsewhere.

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Does anyone think the Ricketts will sign off on a contract that will pay a DH $45M a year at age 36?

Given salary inflation, that might be a bargain come *checks notes* 2035.

Dude's a unicorn.

[Derwood]

I expect that the Dodgers will sign Soto with some sort of "we'll pay you $1/year now but your great-grandkids will get $10 billion in the year 2125" deal

[gflore34]

Just now, Derwood said:

I expect that the Dodgers will sign Soto with some sort of "we'll pay you $1/year now but your great-grandkids will get $10 billion in the year 2125" deal

Count on it, most especially if they don't win the World Series this year.

[Bertz]

I'm curious what the appetite is for spending on a closer this winter.  Behind obviously catcher, relief is the main hole on the roster heading into next year.  There's not a Hader level reliever on the FA market, and Jed wouldn't/shouldn't sign that type of guy anyway.  But are the "still good but old" guys like Jansen and Pressly in play?  They make real money ($15-20M) on a per year basis but should only take 1-2 years.

Relatedly, the bullpen feels like it's two guys short.  How substantive is that second guy?  Is it just some generic lefty (e.g. Andrew Chafin at this point), or does Jed take what happened in April/May to heart and recognize the bullpen needs to be more than 3 deep with trustable options from day 1.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious what the appetite is for spending on a closer this winter.  Behind obviously catcher, relief is the main hole on the roster heading into next year.  There's not a Hader level reliever on the FA market, and Jed wouldn't/shouldn't sign that type of guy anyway.  But are the "still good but old" guys like Jansen and Pressly in play?  They make real money ($15-20M) on a per year basis but should only take 1-2 years.

Relatedly, the bullpen feels like it's two guys short.  How substantive is that second guy?  Is it just some generic lefty (e.g. Andrew Chafin at this point), or does Jed take what happened in April/May to heart and recognize the bullpen needs to be more than 3 deep with trustable options from day 1.

I think they get one lefty and go with what they have. I don’t see them spending a lot on the pen. Chafin is a perfect example of what I expect. 

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious what the appetite is for spending on a closer this winter.  Behind obviously catcher, relief is the main hole on the roster heading into next year.  There's not a Hader level reliever on the FA market, and Jed wouldn't/shouldn't sign that type of guy anyway.  But are the "still good but old" guys like Jansen and Pressly in play?  They make real money ($15-20M) on a per year basis but should only take 1-2 years.

Relatedly, the bullpen feels like it's two guys short.  How substantive is that second guy?  Is it just some generic lefty (e.g. Andrew Chafin at this point), or does Jed take what happened in April/May to heart and recognize the bullpen needs to be more than 3 deep with trustable options from day 1.

Mostly, the catchers available in free agency are a mass collection of identical siblings all with the same annoying traits.

I'm hoping jed cashes in some of his kids for a trade. Big question : which team has a good catcher available for trade? 

[Tim]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm curious what the appetite is for spending on a closer this winter.  Behind obviously catcher, relief is the main hole on the roster heading into next year.  There's not a Hader level reliever on the FA market, and Jed wouldn't/shouldn't sign that type of guy anyway.  But are the "still good but old" guys like Jansen and Pressly in play?  They make real money ($15-20M) on a per year basis but should only take 1-2 years.

Relatedly, the bullpen feels like it's two guys short.  How substantive is that second guy?  Is it just some generic lefty (e.g. Andrew Chafin at this point), or does Jed take what happened in April/May to heart and recognize the bullpen needs to be more than 3 deep with trustable options from day 1.

I'm feeling a lot more confident about Amaya since his swing change. The eye test has backed up the stats below

 

I still want to sign another catcher, but I don't think it will be the same level of black hole it was this year.

[CubUgly]

14 hours ago, JHBulls said:

I can almost hear Boog dying inside that he can’t get more than 5 words in whenever there’s a break in play. 

I can't believe their still pairing those two together.  It's so obvious they don't care for each other it's awkward for everyone - especially us!

[Cuzi]

19 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Mostly, the catchers available in free agency are a mass collection of identical siblings all with the same annoying traits.

I'm hoping jed cashes in some of his kids for a trade. Big question : which team has a good catcher available for trade? 

MLB ready? No one sticks out.

The Royals are pretty close to being in the same situation as the Rays were at 3B. They've got Perez for another year, Fermin who has been solid, and 2 catching prospects in their top 5. Would they trade Fermin?

Mayyyyyybe buy low on Bo Naylor?

Ford and Teel for fast rising AA catchers looking at midseason callups next year that are on teams with established MLB catchers.

The real question is, do the Cubs believe that Ballesteros can stick at catcher. If they dont, and they lock up the DH spot with Suzuki or someone else like Vlad, is there another team with a catcher that believes they can make him stick at catcher long term? Would the Angels unload O'Hoppe for Ballesteros and a couple other guys?

Catcher is just bleak.

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, Tim said:

I'm feeling a lot more confident about Amaya since his swing change. The eye test has backed up the stats below

 

I still want to sign another catcher, but I don't think it will be the same level of black hole it was this year.

I'm definitely comfortable with him as a backup, but he'd be pretty unacceptable as a starter short of hitting like prime Buster Posey for the next two months.  He's shown too much downside risk, even by the lowly standards of the position.

But a depth chart of TBD starter and Amaya in MLB and Moises and some defensive minded veteran at Iowa would be a great way to turn the position around for next year.  Much like the bullpen it all looks WAY better when you add someone up top and slot everyone else down a peg.

[Brian707]

8 hours ago, JBears79 said:

If Jed doesnt match every single Soto offer no matter what the incentives are I will be pissed. If we lose but matched every aspect of the contract and he just wanted to be elsewhere I can forgive that

Prepare to be pissed. horsefeathers the Ricketts 

[LBiittner]

34 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

MLB ready? No one sticks out.

The Royals are pretty close to being in the same situation as the Rays were at 3B. They've got Perez for another year, Fermin who has been solid, and 2 catching prospects in their top 5. Would they trade Fermin?

Mayyyyyybe buy low on Bo Naylor?

Ford and Teel for fast rising AA catchers looking at midseason callups next year that are on teams with established MLB catchers.

The real question is, do the Cubs believe that Ballesteros can stick at catcher. If they dont, and they lock up the DH spot with Suzuki or someone else like Vlad, is there another team with a catcher that believes they can make him stick at catcher long term? Would the Angels unload O'Hoppe for Ballesteros and a couple other guys?

Catcher is just bleak.

I absolutely hate the "flyer" idea. And equally the prospect route. I want 2025 to hit the ground running, jed has to find the team willing to give up that established MLB catcher, one who has succesful experience, but with short teeth. Is there an example? Probably not, this is exactly where Jed earns his $. He needs to find his catcher and team to beat them into submission for a nice haul of Cub prospects.

There has to be "a" team. Perhaps if we can provide a good example , someone here write an eloquent blog post, and then Bernstein reads it aloud over the 670 airwaves, jed hears it ...

LOL.

[Cuzi]

Well, there doesn't have to be a team. There probably isn't a team, unless the Cubs are interested in moving Nico Hoerner for a catcher and they believe that Shaw is going to be ready opening day next year.

Cubs are probably looking at signing a guy like Carson Kelly in the offseason.