Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

[Backtobanks]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel.  The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman.  If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. 

Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes.  The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in.  And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon.

I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

Another 1-1 1/2 years will really make him worthless as trade bait.  At least now other teams might see some potential on what he did last year.

[731.4life]

7 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Thanks for doing the math.  I'm still on the "he's been insanely unlucky" train, but the longer it continues, the more I'll look for explanations because he's just so insanely underperforming expectations based on most data points.

95+ games into the year bud. He has around a 45% strikeout rate when the count goes to 2 strikes.... That should tell you one thing.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Thanks for doing the math.  I'm still on the "he's been insanely unlucky" train, but the longer it continues, the more I'll look for explanations because he's just so insanely underperforming expectations based on most data points.

Dan Szymborski had a really good article on this stuff last year.  The 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/

Quote

 

As a simple rule of thumb, you won’t do too badly if you simply regress xStats a third of the way towards the actual ones. But as you might have guessed, that changes depending on the player’s number of plate appearances.

For BA, if you only look at the players with at least 600 plate appearances in the first season, the ideal BA mix is 37% BA, 63% xBA. When you only look at the players with between 200 and 300 plate appearances, that becomes 10% BA and 90% xBA, a drastically different number. Naturally, this reflects the fact that the longer a player outperforms their xStats, the closer to the actual stats you expect them to be in the future. 

 

So 2 parts xwOBA to 1 part wOBA for a full season, probably more like 3:1 or 4:1 currently in Morel's case.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel.  The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman.  If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. 

Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes.  The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in.  And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon.

I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

I agree that Morel doesn't make much sense to trade at the deadline, he can do more for his value by keeping him and having progression to the batted ball mean, despite losing marginal value with service time.  I don't think you can reasonably go into 2025 with him on the roster though, unless you've done other more dramatic things with the OFs.  Yes there aren't a bunch of terrific options for 3B in FA, but at the same time you can't consider Morel playable there if you have competitive aspirations, so his value as a 3B contingency is pretty much nil.  Make a trade or do something more creative/aggressive to ensure you feel okay with 3B, personally as a longtime Moncada truther maybe giving him a pillow contract with Shaw nipping at his heels feels preferable.

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

95+ games into the year bud. He has around a 45% strikeout rate when the count goes to 2 strikes.... That should tell you one thing.

A. Don't call people bud.  It's condescending and makes you sound like a dick.

B. So 2% more than league average with 2 strikes?  Yeah, you're a dick who doesn't do research.

[Cuzi]

Matt Chapman is almost assuredly going to opt out of his contract so he will also be an option for 3B. Guys like Brett Baty are looking at finding a home on a new team because a guy like Mark Vientos that no one wanted to touch with a 10 foot pole during the great sell off of 2021 has turned into a pretty good player and is adequate at 3B for a 1B/DH only player. There are multiple options out of Tampa beyond just Paredes for 3B. I'm sure there's probably 1 or 2 SS's on the cusp you could stick there like the Brewers did with Joey Ortiz, someone like Ronny Mauricio comes to mind if you believe he can make contact at the MLB level.

Edited July 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Matt Chapman is almost assuredly going to opt out of his contract so he will also be an option for 3B. Guys like Brett Baty are looking at finding a home on a new team because a guy like Mark Vientos that no one wanted to touch with a 10 foot pole during the great sell off of 2021 has turned into a pretty good player and is adequate at 3B for a 1B/DH only player. There are multiple options out of Tampa beyond just Paredes for 3B. I'm sure there's probably 1 or 2 SS's on the cusp you could stick there like the Brewers did with Joey Ortiz.

If he opts out, he's opting out of 2/35. He's 31 right now and will be 32 very near the start of the 2025 season. If he's opting out of 2 years, he's going to want 3+. Are you prepared to give him 3+ years at around 20M for at least his age 32,33 and 34 seasons? I'm not entirely comfortable with that for a guy that brings a giant chunk of his value with the glove.

[Cuzi]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If he opts out, he's opting out of 2/35. He's 31 right now and will be 32 very near the start of the 2025 season. If he's opting out of 2 years, he's going to want 3+. Are you prepared to give him 3+ years at around 20M for at least his age 32,33 and 34 seasons? I'm not entirely comfortable with that for a guy that brings a giant chunk of his value with the glove.

Matt Chapman has virtually an identical batted ball profile as Christopher Morel. If its between paying Chapman $20M for 3 years or putting a black hole at 3B in Morel, I'll pay Chapman $20M. By fWAR numbers, Chapman is 24x the value Morel is currently.

Edited July 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel.  The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman.  If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. 

Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes.  The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in.  And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon.

I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

Peredes isn't a FA until after 2027.  Are you talking about his trade market? 

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, thawv said:

Peredes isn't a FA until after 2027.  Are you talking about his trade market? 

Paredes is entering arbitration next year. He plays for the Rays. 2 of the Rays top 5 prospects are Caminero and Mead, both play 3B and both are in AAA with stints on the MLB roster. Paredes will 100% be available in trade at the deadline and/or offseason. Going to have to move a mountain to get him, though.

Edited July 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Is there a pre-trade Michael Busch running around out there at 3rd base? I know the Baltimore has somewhat of a jam up at 3rd, but they are gearing up for Skubal. 

Matt Shaw?  haha

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rob said:

I mentioned Baty as a potential return for Tauchman a week or so back. I'm still not sure I pull the trigger, but it's reasonable.

I'd do that trade without thinking,.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He's had enough MLB PAs that he might just not be good enough, but Baty is the one comes to mind.  Top 50 prospect, hit well without major red flags at all minor league levels, plays an okay 3rd defensively, and blocked on the current roster.

I'd take a risk on Baty, but it would be nice to acquire a 3B that we think can perform immediately in 2025.  Longterm project at 3B doesn't do much for us with Shaw in the wings.  I'd be fine with a veteran holdover at 3B to start 2025.  Brandon Drury is a FA this winter, could be had on a 1-year maybe for not much, and probably available this deadline for not much.  Had a hamstring injury earlier this year.

[Cuzi]

Brandon Drury is owed around $4M for the remainder of the year and is worth -1.2 fWAR with a 31 wRC+ on the season. I wouldnt even take him for free if the Angels paid his contract.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I could see this scenario as well. So even if Bellinger comes back, which gives the Cubs 4 outfielders for 3 spots, and the Cubs add a third baseman next off season, Morel basically becomes the 10th man. With giving guys off days, I can actually see this working too. Basically next off season get a 3rd baseman, catcher, pen arm, and maybe a starting pitcher. Those needs are in order of importance, IMO. If they get a 3rd baseman in trade it would be easier to then fill all other spots. If they signed Chapman it might not be so each to add all the other spots needed. But they should have around $40M+ to work with, even if Bellinger stays. That should get them one higher priced guy and then fill the other spots via trade if they have too. And as you said, with Morel on the bench and then maybe Tauchman as well, the bench is pretty good. They would have a back up catcher and one other guy. 

Unless he comes on a shortterm deal I don't see the Cubs signign Chapman.  Too old for longterm, pass.

[Post Count Padder]

I know Baty hasn't hit at the big-league level yet but he was a top prospect as recently as last year. I don't think the Mets are trading him for a 4th OFer, unless the deal is expanded.

I like Wisdom a lot but I'm fully expecting by this time next month he's been DFA'd or traded for a lottery ticket to a team needing a power bench bat.

[Stratos]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Brandon Drury is owed around $4M for the remainder of the year and is worth -1.2 fWAR with a 31 wRC+ on the season. I wouldnt even take him for free if the Angels paid his contract.

He's only played 167 PA's this year because he was injured earlier.  His wRC+ in a sample of a 1.5 months of PA's is largely meaningless.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

He's only played 167 PA's this year because he was injured earlier.  His wRC+ in a sample of a 1.5 months of PA's is largely meaningless.

167 PA's and racked up a -1.2 fWAR. He's bottom 20% in every baseball metric. No. Thanks.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

He's only played 167 PA's this year because he was injured earlier.  His wRC+ in a sample of a 1.5 months of PA's is largely meaningless.

Drury is a hard pass for me. I would sign Chapman for 3 years at $60M all day long over giving Drury league minimum. 

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

If he opts out, he's opting out of 2/35. He's 31 right now and will be 32 very near the start of the 2025 season. If he's opting out of 2 years, he's going to want 3+. Are you prepared to give him 3+ years at around 20M for at least his age 32,33 and 34 seasons? I'm not entirely comfortable with that for a guy that brings a giant chunk of his value with the glove.

A giant chunk of glove value at 3b would be soooo refreshing on a Cub team these days. 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Paredes is entering arbitration next year. He plays for the Rays. 2 of the Rays top 5 prospects are Caminero and Mead, both play 3B and both are in AAA with stints on the MLB roster. Paredes will 100% be available in trade at the deadline and/or offseason.

I assumed that.  But the post implied that he a Bregman, who's a FA are the best options.  Which I agree with. 

 

[KCCub]

 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think, setting aside the batted ball stuff, now's probably not the time to trade Morel.  The 3B market this winter is basically just Paredes and Bregman.  If you are pulling down one of them then yeah sure Morel is expendable. 

Otherwise I think you probably go internal at 3B, i.e. Shaw, and use your resources on the other roster holes.  The problem is that even if Shaw goes to Iowa on Friday and crushes for the next two months, there's some pretty significant downside risk heading into next year with him penciled in.  And if Morel's also gone, you once again are looking at a situation where your backup plan at the position is some sort of Mastrobuoni platoon.

I don't think Morel is long term for the roster, but I think he's got another 1-1.5 seasons before he makes sense to be dealt

The availability or lackthereof of third basemen has nothing to do with what you should do with Morel. He has proven beyond a doubt to be incapable of playing the position. 
 

and waiting to deal guys is how you get a lesser return 

[Bull]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Matt Shaw?  haha

We should get this guy and hand him the 3B job next year.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

The availability or lackthereof of third basemen has nothing to do with what you should do with Morel. He has proven beyond a doubt to be incapable of playing the position. 
 

and waiting to deal guys is how you get a lesser return 

Whether they trade him now or the off season I doubt it matters. In fact, if he has a better end to the season he might actually bring more back. Or they might even decide not to trade him at all. He doesn’t have to be traded.