Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I'm all for overpaying for players like Robert and/or Vlad Jr.

Why on Earth would the Cubs be willing to overpay for Vlad Jr? Michael Busch has matched him offensively and is much better defensively. Vlad would be a DH on a 1 year deal with an arbitration number that would most likely easily surpass his value on the field.

[KCCub]

14 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Playing the devils advocate here; during his cub career and the cub $ spent on him to date which is $26 mil per, does $ spent and the war level for a year and a half balance out?

Don't know how you math gurus do this, all sort of new to me 

Last year, the simple equation was one WAR was worth around $8m to $8.5m per. I haven't really seen the dollar value of one WAR referenced this year, but that's been the easy 10,000 foot view to determine value. Basically when he signed the contract, he needed to average around 3.3ish WAR per season to break even.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Rob said:

Swanson has put up 5.9 fWAR as a Cub.

How to value each fWAR is always in a bit of flux -- subject to the whims of the market, inflation, etc... But $8M per is still a pretty conservative estimate.

So Swanson has been worth something like $47M so far. If he's paid out at $52M by the end of the year, he's roughly "on pace" to provide the value we are supposed to get.

However, given the aging curve, the reality is that "on pace" is behind -- you expect to get more from people early in the contract and little later on. He was on track with that last year, putting up north of 4.5 fWAR and roughly $35M in value.

TL;DR: Swanson was worth way more than his contract last season. He's likely to rack up enough value the rest of this season as to say he hasn't truly disappointed the contract yet. But if he doesn't bounce back to previously established levels next year, the odds of him living up to the contract are low.

FG mostly backs this up with however they do their calculations. $37.8m last year, $9.6m this year so far, $47.4m total. All the projections have him conservatively doubling his production YTD, so that get us to basically $57m total at a $52m salary clip.

Agreed with Rob's point that you would expect most of the production to come earlier in the contract, so while he's been 'worth' his contract so far, and I certainly wouldn't call it a disaster just yet, you're hoping for a little more excess production in these first few years. 

[LBiittner]

And since Swanson signed his deal in 2023 $$, it's conceivable as he ages the fwar $ value across mlb increases yearly. So his yearly necessary plateau would lower? possibly making him worthy of his deal?

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

And since Swanson signed his deal in 2023 $$, it's conceivable as he ages the fwar $ value across mlb increases yearly. So his yearly necessary plateau would lower? possibly making him worthy of his deal?

$/WAR is trending down. Given the lack of talent in upcoming FA classes, I wouldn't expect the number to climb compared to the last few years.

The only players that reach that $8M+ per WAR number everyone keeps referencing are the elite of the class, typically, most everyone else falls way short.

Edited July 10, 2024 by Cuzi

[KCCub]

23 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Why on Earth would the Cubs be willing to overpay for Vlad Jr? Michael Busch has matched him offensively and is much better defensively. Vlad would be a DH on a 1 year deal with an arbitration number that would most likely easily surpass his value on the field.

To add on - I don't want to say it's a 100% forgone conclusion yet, but I think we're close to calling Suzuki a near fulltime DH agaisnt RHP when PCA is healthy. The Cubs are absolutely going to address 3b next year, so that also leaves Morel as a DH against lefties. There's just not room or a need to lock in a DH only high priced bat next year unless there's attrition across the roster. 

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, KCCub said:

To add on - I don't want to say it's a 100% forgone conclusion yet, but I think we're close to calling Suzuki a near fulltime DH agaisnt RHP when PCA is healthy. The Cubs are absolutely going to address 3b next year, so that also leaves Morel as a DH against lefties. There's just not room or a need to lock in a DH only high priced bat next year unless there's attrition across the roster. 

 

If you're going into 2025 where your position roster is looking like

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- FA

RF- Seiya

CF- Cody

LF- Happ

DH- Morel

Then where else are you going to put a big bat other than DH? There's no big bat options at 3B unless you think Bregman is going to find a time machine. 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

 

If you're going into 2025 where your position roster is looking like

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- FA

RF- Seiya

CF- Cody

LF- Happ

DH- Morel

Then where else are you going to put a big bat other than DH? There's no big bat options at 3B unless you think Bregman is going to find a time machine. 

Without roster attrition, a big bat is not going to happen. You're looking at a FA that includes something like Jansen at catcher and Chapman/Bregman at 3b.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Seiya is considered more of a primary DH, then there's room to add an OF.  Tauchman has been fine there this year but far from a permanent solution, and the only way that is a clear non-starter is if both PCA turns it on with the bat and Bellinger does not opt out, which I wouldn't put as the most likely outcome.  Also free agency is not the only way to add a big bat, hence the whole conversation about a trade for Vlad to begin with.

[Backtobanks]

15 minutes ago, KCCub said:

To add on - I don't want to say it's a 100% forgone conclusion yet, but I think we're close to calling Suzuki a near fulltime DH agaisnt RHP when PCA is healthy. The Cubs are absolutely going to address 3b next year, so that also leaves Morel as a DH against lefties. There's just not room or a need to lock in a DH only high priced bat next year unless there's attrition across the roster. 

You trade Morel as part of the package to get Vlad and Jansen.  You trade PCA as part of the package to get Robert.  You move Busch to 3rd base.

Vlad, Hoerner, Swanson, Busch, Happ, Robert, Suzuki, Jansen as a starting lineup might be strong enough to put us in contention this year and for the next 3-4 years.

 

[Tryptamine]

So interesting piece of information that isn't directly related to the Cubs, but would impact them. Pittsburgh sports writer Dejan Kovacevic said the following in an article

Quote

Fact: I was told over the weekend by a high-ranking American League executive that, at some point in 2024, the Orioles approached the Pirates about a trade of elite prospects, one that'd send Jared Jones to Baltimore and 20-year-old infielder Jackson Holliday to Pittsburgh. I was further told that it was Ben Cherington who backed off. And as the opening sentence of this paragraph suggests, I've got no idea when within this year it occurred. Only that it did.

Pittsburgh getting Holliday would be scary, but I find the idea of the trio of Skenes/Jones/Keller for the next 5+ years even scarier. 

[squally1313]

I don't really have a lot of interest in Morel or Seiya as purely DH options. I'm fine with the concept of getting someone who projects to mash in the 130+ wRC range to be the day in/day in DH, but I don't think either of those guys gives you the offensive upside to promise them regular PAs in that spot vs using it to give people half days off, chase matchups, etc. 

I think you could probably get away with one of them playing some sort of sheltered defensive role even if there's no defensive improvement, but have very little interest in both of them on this roster past this year if we're all convinced that they are bottom barrel defenders.

[Backtobanks]

52 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Why on Earth would the Cubs be willing to overpay for Vlad Jr? Michael Busch has matched him offensively and is much better defensively. Vlad would be a DH on a 1 year deal with an arbitration number that would most likely easily surpass his value on the field.

All the rumors are hinting that the Cubs go after Alonso, who costs more than Vlad.  Move Busch to 3rd where he probably can play better than Morel.

 

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't really have a lot of interest in Morel or Seiya as purely DH options. I'm fine with the concept of getting someone who projects to mash in the 130+ wRC range to be the day in/day in DH, but I don't think either of those guys gives you the offensive upside to promise them regular PAs in that spot vs using it to give people half days off, chase matchups, etc. 

I think you could probably get away with one of them playing some sort of sheltered defensive role even if there's no defensive improvement, but have very little interest in both of them on this roster past this year if we're all convinced that they are bottom barrel defenders.

I mean Seiya is putting up a 123 wRC+ and on 3.2 fWAR/162 pace. Poor defense or not, I'm not exactly looking to move on from that.

[squally1313]

Why are we messing with the 4th best first baseman in baseball. There are other guys besides Vlad and Alonso. 

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

All the rumors are hinting that the Cubs go after Alonso, who costs more than Vlad.  Move Busch to 3rd where he probably can play better than Morel.

 

The vomit emoji doesn't portray enough how much I would hate this.

[KCCub]

3 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

You trade Morel as part of the package to get Vlad and Jansen.  You trade PCA as part of the package to get Robert.  You move Busch to 3rd base.

Vlad, Hoerner, Swanson, Busch, Happ, Robert, Suzuki, Jansen as a starting lineup might be strong enough to put us in contention this year and for the next 3-4 years.

 

Jansen is a FA at the end of the season btw.

I just don't see Jed and company trying another risky move like moving Busch to 3b. You have a good thing going with him at 1b, don't screw it up. 

 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Backtobanks said:

All the rumors are hinting that the Cubs go after Alonso, who costs more than Vlad.  Move Busch to 3rd where he probably can play better than Morel.

 

I know people are generally down on Alonso, but the Cubs need SLG. I would not be against this if they can work out an extension. I'm not interested in an Alonso for the rest of the year trade. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean Seiya is putting up a 123 wRC+ and on 3.2 fWAR/162 pace. Poor defense or not, I'm not exactly looking to move on from that.

That's fair, and maybe another way of saying that is that the Suzuki defensive problems are not the same as the Morel defensive problems. Suzuki is more just lower case bad in right field (and his miscues are very memorable), but you can get by, especially if, hypothetically, you had an all world defensive center fielder and you play half your games in a small park. 

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

That's fair, and maybe another way of saying that is that the Suzuki defensive problems are not the same as the Morel defensive problems. Suzuki is more just lower case bad in right field (and his miscues are very memorable), but you can get by, especially if, hypothetically, you had an all world defensive center fielder and you play half your games in a small park. 

I'm with you on Morel. I know there are a few Morel super fans who aren't going to like it, but as far as I'm concerned, you absolutely cannot expect Morel to be a starter in 2025. Whether it's via him being traded, optioned or simply acquiring a FA where he becomes a bench player. It's nice that the BB% is up and the K% way down, but it has come at the cost of his quality of contact. LD% is down, FB% is down, HR/FB% is down, SOFT% is up, MED% is up, HARD% is down. I know the metrics suggest he should see some improved results, but he's going to have to see a significant surge in results to make up for that defense. 

[Cuzi]

Morel just needs to be traded. Maybe there's a team out there you can sell on his batted ball profile to suggest he's been "unlucky" for 370 PAs and counting.

I'd like to think his value is still relatively high given the 2 WAR projections and near 30 HRs with 4+ years of control. I'd love to think a team like the Red Sox would be interested in a 2B and with Connor Wong turning into a .300 hitter, what would it take to get Kyle Teel?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

22 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I know people are generally down on Alonso, but the Cubs need SLG. I would not be against this if they can work out an extension. I'm not interested in an Alonso for the rest of the year trade. 

Here's the Cubs team rank in IsoP by position:

Catcher: 29th

1B: 6th (Mets are 4th)

2B: 30th

SS: 21st

3B: 17th

LF: 3rd

CF: 20th

RF: 9th

DH: 10th

 

I know it's more viscerally fun to add a 40 HR hitter, but Alonso wouldn't be marginally adding as much slug compared to a lesser slugger who plays a different position.

 

Alternatively, this calls into question that if you are going to lean defense first up the middle with Hoerner/Swanson/PCA, you may need to bite the bullet and make Seiya your primary RF and go big at DH.  Alonso wouldn't be my top pick for that though, and I assume the odds of him having interest in a mid-season extension are less than 1%.

[Chicago Al]

24 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

You trade Morel as part of the package to get Vlad and Jansen.  You trade PCA as part of the package to get Robert.  You move Busch to 3rd base.

Vlad, Hoerner, Swanson, Busch, Happ, Robert, Suzuki, Jansen as a starting lineup might be strong enough to put us in contention this year and for the next 3-4 years.

 

Who else is packaged with Robert in this scenario? Not sure I want to trade PCA + for just Robert if that’s what you’re saying.

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Here's the Cubs team rank in IsoP by position:

😄 29th

1B: 6th (Mets are 4th)

2B: 30th

SS: 21st

3B: 17th

LF: 3rd

CF: 20th

RF: 9th

DH: 10th

 

I know it's more viscerally fun to add a 40 HR hitter, but Alonso wouldn't be marginally adding as much slug compared to a lesser slugger who plays a different position.

 

Alternatively, this calls into question that if you are going to lean defense first up the middle with Hoerner/Swanson/PCA up the middle, you may need to bite the bullet and make Seiya your primary RF and go big at DH.  Alonso wouldn't be my top pick for that though, and I assume the odds of him having interest in a mid-season extension are less than 1%.

I feel like you could get JD Martinez for half the annual price and half the years. I'd happily hand him a 2/28 or 2/30 deal in 2025, considering he's on a 1/12 deal right now.

[KCCub]

I'm still on the Paredes train. Adds a nice middle of the order bat, fixes 3b, and is controlled through 2027. Seems like he should be the no brainer trade target, with the Rays seemingly willing to deal and they have guys in their system ready to step in.