Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbf not so impressive when the criteria is basically “say something semi to fully retired old white guys aren’t enthralled by.” Its not lost that I’d be more hip and happening I’d be if I just said all the workers are overpaidz, efficiencyness is basically godlieness, the kids are soft, and other garbage  

You do have access to the politics forum, no? You realize that's the exact opposite of what the vast majority of us are in there saying? As was mentioned above, most people are on the same page with a lot of the stuff you say, but it just doesn't have to be a constant and repeated theme being drilled into our heads.

[Cuzi]

Jed still holding out for that first 3 game win streak since April. This team is going to bounce back and make the playoffs!

[Tryptamine]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/braves-trade-rumors-outfield.html

I wouldn't call it my favorite option, but if the Cubs could land Drake Baldwin for Bellinger that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He's pretty much ready for the Bigs and while he doesn't really have any stand out tools other than contact, he's graded pretty solid across the board, other than speed. 

Edited July 8, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Rob]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You do have access to the politics forum, no? You realize that's the exact opposite of what the vast majority of us are in there saying? As was mentioned above, most people are on the same page with a lot of the stuff you say, but it just doesn't have to be a constant and repeated theme being drilled into our heads.

Yeah, this take is even sillier than average.

We agree with most of Tom's political leanings, at least to the extent that they can be rationally discerned. But they show up in the weirdest and most inappropriate places. They're almost never relevant to the issue at hand -- as was the case here where I said his posts were frequent, irrelevant, and unintelligible -- and he responded by saying it's because of politics.

And I'll be honest, I'm not thrilled at the insinuation this board is full of semi to fully retired old white guys. I figured we were all mostly in that late-teens to mid-30's range when we all joined the board 20 years ago. I'd kinda figured the average user of this site was probably mid 40s and nowhere near approaching retirement.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/braves-trade-rumors-outfield.html

I wouldn't call it my favorite option, but if the Cubs could land Drake Baldwin for Bellinger that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He's pretty much ready for the Bigs and while he doesn't really have any stand out tools other than contact, he's graded pretty solid across the board, other than speed. 

In the article, it says Braves are just a few million from going over the highest tax threshold?  If belli opts in, it more or less ties their hands in 2025

[Outshined_One]

 

[CubinNY]

Just now, Outshined_One said:

 

I loved that video game. 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Baldwin seems like a solid name to watch. I don’t see any serious shot of moving Bellinger but Tauchmann’s a pretty solid fit there too 

Yea, I think the Braves will take a page out of their 2021 deadline playbook and swim in the waters of the Tauchman's of the league and not the Bellingers. 

[LBiittner]

Let's do something stupid and trade canario for dejong+ and play dejong at 3rd? 

[CubinNY]

I wouldn't mind seeing them trade Mervis for a lottery ticket. 

[LBiittner]

Doesn't merv have a broken hand?

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/braves-trade-rumors-outfield.html

I wouldn't call it my favorite option, but if the Cubs could land Drake Baldwin for Bellinger that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He's pretty much ready for the Bigs and while he doesn't really have any stand out tools other than contact, he's graded pretty solid across the board, other than speed. 

There's a lot to like with Baldwin. He's running an 78.7% contact rate and a huge 25% barrel rate right now. His in-zone-whiff is miniscule (11.5%), and he's hitting lefties better than righties. The exit velocities are really good too. Also, seems to not struggle with velocity. The big issue is that he just doesn't get a lot of loft; he's hitting a ton of ground balls. He makes a lot of swing decisions on the outer-third of the plate and these (coupled with low and in) are where the ground balls come from. 

So I'd say he'd be an interesting return. Get the guy to stop swinging at pitches on the opposite third and grounding out on them, attack more pitches to generate loft...and there might be a pretty good hitter there.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Doesn't merv have a broken hand?

Merv has a broken hand, yes.

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

In the article, it says Braves are just a few million from going over the highest tax threshold?  If belli opts in, it more or less ties their hands in 2025

We probably aren't clawing our way back in this season, but a controlled sell-off doesn't do anything but help our draft position. Instead, we should be buying on long-term pieces.

But if Jed insists on selling, which he probably will, we might as well eat bad contracts in return to help teams like the Braves deal with the luxury tax threshold. We should have room to play with for next year. Hendricks, Smyly, Neris, Bote, Mancini, Gomes, and Barnhart are all coming off the payroll. That should free up about $55 million. Aside from Steele, there's no big raises on the horizon.

We can take some bad contracts if it increases the potential return and gets us something worthwhile.

[Bertz]

Mervis has a broken hamate so I think he can be back by the deadline.  I think it's typically only a few week injury that you can't play, but it is a few months that your power is impacted.  But if not here in July I do think Mervis gets traded in November.  He won't return a ton but some fun relief prospect a la Ethan Roberts is probably about right.

Canario similarly seems pretty certain to not be here in 4 weeks, though I expect that return to be a little richer.

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, Rob said:

We probably aren't clawing our way back in this season, but a controlled sell-off doesn't do anything but help our draft position. Instead, we should be buying on long-term pieces.

But if Jed insists on selling, which he probably will, we might as well eat bad contracts in return to help teams like the Braves deal with the luxury tax threshold. We should have room to play with for next year. Hendricks, Smyly, Neris, Bote, Mancini, Gomes, and Barnhart are all coming off the payroll. That should free up about $55 million. Aside from Steele, there's no big raises on the horizon.

We can take some bad contracts if it increases the potential return and gets us something worthwhile.

Hot take here, but I wonder how down they are on Michael Harris. He's coming off a 4.8 fWAR in 2022 and 3.8 fWAR in 2023, but this year he has only put up a .6 fWAR to go with an 83 wRC+. He's signed to an 8/72 deal through 2030 with team options in '31 and '32. They're probably not ready to give up on him, but maybe it's something to visit in the offseason.

[jersey cubs fan]

It’s a lot easier to say “plug the black hole spots” than it is for a GM to actually do that. Hoyer is the reason those black holes exist. He chose the guys that suck. When you routinely settle for less than while building a roster you have to suffer the consequences. 
 

The core is all post-prime. running this thing back with Hoyer’s interpretation of a filled hole and a bunch of 30 year olds that have never accomplished anything together seems like a fruitless endeavor. 
 

But it’s probably best to allow Jed to run out the clock and let a new guy start fresh for 2026. 

[Rob]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Hot take here, but I wonder how down they are on Michael Harris. He's coming off a 4.8 fWAR in 2022 and 3.8 fWAR in 2023, but this year he has only put up a .6 fWAR to go with an 83 wRC+. He's signed to an 8/72 deal through 2030 with team options in '31 and '32. They're probably not ready to give up on him, but maybe it's something to visit in the offseason.

I had a similar longshot hot take about Julio Rodriguez with the Mariners. The power has evaporated this year but he's otherwise a very similar player to what he's done previously. Went from two seasons of 5.7 and 5.6 fWAR down to 0.9 fWAR this season. He's two years into a 12 year, $209 million contract. They need a guy like Hoerner and we can send Bellinger too so they don't lose CF production right now. More pieces would need to be involved, obviously. But I wonder if it's feasible.

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If they bring it back with Bellinger they don’t need an upgrade at DH. One of the outfielders(Suzuki) would be the DH. Also,  if they run back Taillon, Steele, Imanaga, Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and maybe even Horton I’m not sure they need another starting pitcher. As for the one, they can use a  established pen arm. Not sure he has to close. They have some arms in the system that might be able to handle that. I just don’t see them spending on a closer. I can see either Biggie, Hodges, or Brown closing next year. To me the main upgrade is catcher, 3rd base and one pen arm. To me those are must haves. The rest are more like “would like to have” moves. 
As for improving the bench, that is just not going to happen unless it happens by a fringe guy having a good year. Teams just don’t spend on the bench. Look at the Braves. Short is their back up infielder. Phillies have Clemens. Clemens has played well this year, not not someone who that was expected to do as well as he is doing. Sure, it would be awesome to have a great bench, but that is more a result of luck rather than having actual dependable good players on the bench. 
My last point is if they do lose Bellinger they need to add better than him. And, yes, at that point they need to add a DH or outrider. (SOTO please)! 

In regards to the DH, I guess yes, with the OFers they have in system,  they can stay within for DH.

I'd like to see them get another sure TOR guy to go with Imanaga and Steele, they could use one or two of their younger arms in a trade for one that could become available. 

Me, im not a fan of using a rookie/unseasoned guy to close out games, I like to have a somewhat veteran for that spot and use the young arms as 7th inning/setup guys for a couple seasons first.

I like having a reliable veteran or two on the bench, someone like Zobrist, where you can plug him into the lineup anytime and produce or come off the bench in a pinch.

I know the bench isn't relied upon as much as before but I would like them to have one guy they can count on and not just a hope or luck into one.

[imb]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbf not so impressive when the criteria is basically “say something semi to fully retired old white guys aren’t enthralled by.” Its not lost that I’d be more hip and happening I’d be if I just said all the workers are overpaidz, payroll efficiencyness is next to godlieness, the kids are soft, and other garbage  

Yeah I don’t think that’s it man

Edited July 8, 2024 by imb

[Tryptamine]

I kind of wonder what Tauchmann could pull in a trade. 107 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR in about 2/3 of a season of PAs for the Cubs last year and a 116 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR in less than half a season this year. He doesn't hit FA until 2027, but he's already 33 years old. Can he land you a 45 FV guy and maybe a lottery ticket?

[Rob]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I kind of wonder what Tauchmann could pull in a trade. 107 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR in about 2/3 of a season of PAs for the Cubs last year and a 116 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR in less than half a season this year. He doesn't hit FA until 2027, but he's already 33 years old. Can he land you a 45 FV guy and maybe a lottery ticket?

A guy like Jazz Chisolm isn't appreciably better than Tauchman. But I think you'll find their markets will drastically vary based on age and perceived upside. Right or wrong, teams are going to look at Tauchman as a good fourth outfielder but bad starting candidate.

I don't see us getting much for him. Best case scenario is maybe a post-hype sleeper. Maybe a guy like Brett Baty?

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Rob said:

A guy like Jazz Chisolm isn't appreciably better than Tauchman. But I think you'll find their markets will drastically vary based on age and perceived upside. Right or wrong, teams are going to look at Tauchman as a good fourth outfielder but bad starting candidate.

I don't see us getting much for him. Best case scenario is maybe a post-hype sleeper. Maybe a guy like Brett Baty?

God those GB and FB rates are gross. If I remember right, Baty was supposed to be something crazy like a 70 power bat when he was drafted and it just never materialized. He's never hit more than 19 HR in a year and actually has a lower career SLG than Madrigal.

[Derwood]

36 minutes ago, imb said:

Yeah I don’t think that’s it man

But what does Disney say?

[Bertz]

I would love to know how our young SPs are valued, and approximately what value they offer.  When you combine upside, production to date, and durability, there's probably an argument to have these guys in any order:

Brown

Horton

Wicks

Wesneski

Assad

The above is what I have right this second, but ask me again in three days and I might have something very different.  I'm curious both what the industry thinks and what you'd get back for any of them in a 1 for 1.