Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

[Bertz]

The fanbase scoffs at Suzuki/Happ being considered a big bat, so if you want someone substantially better than them your options are basically Vlad Jr. and Soto.  This is the list of the top projected hitters in the league right now:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rzips&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc

The only guys who might possibly be available in the next 9 months are those two, Brent Rooker (do you really want to buy high on him?) and mayyyybbbbeeee if things go just the wrong way for the Astros Kyle Tucker.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I'm still on the Paredes train. Adds a nice middle of the order bat, fixes 3b, and is controlled through 2027. Seems like he should be the no brainer trade target, with the Rays seemingly willing to deal and they have guys in their system ready to step in. 

All depends on how you think his extreme pull only power will translate in Wrigley. It better be a slam dunk because it's going to cost a slam dunk package.

Edited July 10, 2024 by Cuzi

[KCCub]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

All depends on how you think his extreme pull only power will translate in Wrigley. It better be a slam dunk because it's going to cost a slam dunk package.

Without analyzing the data, I'm sure he'd lose a couple HRs due to Wrigley's deeper LF dimensions, but he would probably also gain some wind aided homers in the summer. I know the under the hood data is not ideal for him, but we're going on year 3 of him beating it due to his dead pull fly ball nature. He's basically been a neutral defender at 3b, only 25, and under control for 3 more seasons after this. I'd rather go that route (cost considered) vs trading for Alonso.  

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Without analyzing the data, I'm sure he'd lose a couple HRs due to Wrigley's deeper LF dimensions, but he would probably also gain some wind aided homers in the summer. I know the under the hood data is not ideal for him, but we're going on year 3 of him beating it due to his dead pull fly ball nature. He's basically been a neutral defender at 3b, only 25, and under control for 3 more seasons after this. I'd rather go that route (cost considered) vs trading for Alonso.  

He's -5 expected HRs in Wrigley. That's tied for 2nd lowest. When I say extreme pull only power I mean EXTREME. The majority of his HRs are right down the line.

The Astros, if they can make it work by flipping Bregman to someone looking for a cheaper option, should push for Paredes. He would destroy in that park.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He's -5 expected HRs in Wrigley. That's tied for 2nd lowest. When I say extreme pull only power I mean EXTREME. The majority of his HRs are right down the line.

The Astros, if they can make it work by flipping Bregman to someone looking for a cheaper option, should push for Paredes. He would destroy in that park.

That was the first park I thought of too, now that Camden changed their left field wall. He might put up cartoonish numbers. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Without analyzing the data, I'm sure he'd lose a couple HRs due to Wrigley's deeper LF dimensions, but he would probably also gain some wind aided homers in the summer. I know the under the hood data is not ideal for him, but we're going on year 3 of him beating it due to his dead pull fly ball nature. He's basically been a neutral defender at 3b, only 25, and under control for 3 more seasons after this. I'd rather go that route (cost considered) vs trading for Alonso.  

Statcast's estimates say he loses a couple HR a year, though this might partially be a clash of his profile and the methodology because they say he loses a handful of HR in nearly every park: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Re: the under the hood stuff, Paredes was one of the short list of people who both hit the ball in the air a lot and also don't strike out much, which I argued at the time is a proxy for a specific skill in bat control.  

 

That criteria in this year's run environment gives you this list: 

Mookie Betts

José Ramírez

Vinnie Pasquantino

Alex Bregman

Marcus Semien

Yordan Alvarez

Nolan Arenado

Ozzie Albies

Isaac Paredes

Justin Turner

Francisco Lindor

Adley Rutschman

Will Smith

Cody Bellinger

Anthony Santander

JJ Bleday

Salvador Perez

 

That group is averaging 120 wRC+ (a simple average, not PA-weighted).

[Bertz]

I think Paredes has done it long enough to prove it's skill and not luck.  However, he is the hitter equivalent of a finesse pitcher like Kyle Hendricks.  I think it's fair to wonder how that will age.

Also despite his true talent looking like a ~130 wRC+ I think considering a guy with raw power comparable to PCA does not feel like the "big bat" that anchors the lineup like so many people think the team needs.

[Tryptamine]

Unfortunately I can't envision any scenario that would allow the Cubs to poach one of Westburg/Holliday/Mayo from Baltimore, to be the 3B for the next decade, that doesn't involve Steele.

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

 

Then where else are you going to put a big bat other than DH? There's no big bat options at 3B unless you think Bregman is going to find a time machine. 

Or garbage cans

[KCCub]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Also despite his true talent looking like a ~130 wRC+ I think considering a guy with raw power comparable to PCA does not feel like the "big bat" that anchors the lineup like so many people think the team needs.

I want Soto or a true top tier bat just as much as the next guy, but I think we have to be realistic here. With the pending FA class and the players who we think at this time could/will be available, I realistically don't see a path to us landing the true big bat that you or others are describing (Unless Jed shocks the world with Soto). Heck, even Paredes is an extreme longshot to land. If folks would be disappointed with landing Paredes, who's value add at 3b over what we currently have would help this team tremendously, then I don't think they are going to be satisfied with the off-season. 

[Bertz]

41 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I want Soto or a true top tier bat just as much as the next guy, but I think we have to be realistic here. With the pending FA class and the players who we think at this time could/will be available, I realistically don't see a path to us landing the true big bat that you or others are describing (Unless Jed shocks the world with Soto). Heck, even Paredes is an extreme longshot to land. If folks would be disappointed with landing Paredes, who's value add at 3b over what we currently have would help this team tremendously, then I don't think they are going to be satisfied with the off-season. 

Oh for sure.  I'm very much a "wins are wins" type and don't think having a big bopper does much extra beyond aesthetics.  But based on the fanbase's whining they would hate him.  

I don't love Paredes specifically because like I said his lack of raw power makes his margins feel quite small.  But on the other hand it's hard to overstate how much adding a 4 win 3B with such a light salary would have on this team in the immediate term.  It would feel kind of like the Quintana trade.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rob said:

Swanson has put up 5.9 fWAR as a Cub.

How to value each fWAR is always in a bit of flux -- subject to the whims of the market, inflation, etc... But $8M per is still a pretty conservative estimate.

So Swanson has been worth something like $47M so far. If he's paid out at $52M by the end of the year, he's roughly "on pace" to provide the value we are supposed to get.

However, given the aging curve, the reality is that "on pace" is behind -- you expect to get more from people early in the contract and little later on. He was on track with that last year, putting up north of 4.5 fWAR and roughly $35M in value.

TL;DR: Swanson was worth way more than his contract last season. He's likely to rack up enough value the rest of this season as to say he hasn't truly disappointed the contract yet. But if he doesn't bounce back to previously established levels next year, the odds of him living up to the contract are low.

Far better than the other FA SS though.   I would take offers and trade him for basically nothing and be happy moving Hoerner to SS simply based on the fact that Swanson is only going to get older.  Not terrible to keep him though for the next year or 2.  Try Morel at 2b.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Are you under the assumption the Cubs would trade Nico for something that doesn't help the team compete next year?

That's the most likely scenario.  If they can find a 4 WAR player at a position we need that's ready to play next year then sure, but it probably doesn't happen.  Why is a win-now team trading. Mlb-ready assets?

Doesn't matter because they very likely aren't going to trade him because it makes little sense at this point.

Edited July 10, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

 

If you're going into 2025 where your position roster is looking like

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- FA

RF- Seiya

CF- Cody

LF- Happ

DH- Morel

Then where else are you going to put a big bat other than DH? There's no big bat options at 3B unless you think Bregman is going to find a time machine. 

They should target Jansen in FA and maybe trade for a 3b.  If they really like Shaw at 3b they can always trade that 3b later when Shaw shows he can hit end field ok at mlb level.

We have a bunch of internal options at DH going forward, like Seiya, Morel, Ballesteros, Triantos, maybe Caissie etc, some wild cards like McGeary, Mervis etc

Edited July 10, 2024 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They should target Jansen in FA and maybe trade for a 3b.  If they really like Shaw at 3b they can always trade that 3b later when Shaw shows he can hit end field ok at mlb level.

We have a bunch of internal options at DH going forward, like Seiya, Morel, Ballesteros, Triantos, maybe Caissie etc, some wild cards like McGeary, Mervis etc

You lost me at McGeary and Mervis. 

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Chicago Al said:

Who else is packaged with Robert in this scenario? Not sure I want to trade PCA + for just Robert if that’s what you’re saying.

I would gladly trade PCA for Robert straight up, but the WS wouldn't do that deal.  PCA is a great fielder and baserunner but has no bat.  A team that is loaded offensively can afford to play him every day, but that's not the Cubs.

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, KCCub said:

I'm still on the Paredes train. Adds a nice middle of the order bat, fixes 3b, and is controlled through 2027. Seems like he should be the no brainer trade target, with the Rays seemingly willing to deal and they have guys in their system ready to step in. 

He would be great, but you're talking 4-5 top prospects to get him.

[Rcal10]

I see the Rays are getting calls on Paredes. That would be a guy the Cubs should be discussing. And they have enough young talent to make that happen. They can also send the Rays Morel in the event the Rays aren’t doing a complete dump. Morel plus for Paredes would be something I would like to see. It is buying, but also doing so for the future.  So it makes a lot of sense. 

Edited July 13, 2024 by Rcal10

[Chicago Al]

What about Willy Adames? Free agent to be at the end of the season. Could slot him at 3B, doesn’t look like the Brewers will extend him, probably won’t be too expensive to sign.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

What about Willy Adames? Free agent to be at the end of the season. Could slot him at 3B, doesn’t look like the Brewers will extend him, probably won’t be too expensive to sign.

Do you really see the Brewers trading him to the Cubs. I don’t. 

[Chicago Al]

20 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Do you really see the Brewers trading him to the Cubs. I don’t. 

I don’t either, but he’s someone the Cubs could look into after this season is what I meant.

[Bertz]

54 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

What about Willy Adames? Free agent to be at the end of the season. Could slot him at 3B, doesn’t look like the Brewers will extend him, probably won’t be too expensive to sign.

I have thought about this.  I think him being the best SS on the market by a mile hurts these chances.  If it was like two years ago and there were 4 guys looking at 9 figure contracts he'd be a candidate to pull a Bogaerts, but this winter it's Adames, Kim, and a STEEP drop-off beyond that.

[Chicago Al]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I have thought about this.  I think him being the best SS on the market by a mile hurts these chances.  If it was like two years ago and there were 4 guys looking at 9 figure contracts he'd be a candidate to pull a Bogaerts, but this winter it's Adames, Kim, and a STEEP drop-off beyond that.

True, I guess it depends on how many teams need SS help. I know the Dodgers do unless they make a trade for one before the deadline. 

[Dfan25]

I wouldn’t expect much movement . Just enough to get under the LT . They won’t go over in a season like this . Even if somehow they get back into the WC race , they will stay under to keep the option of going over next year open if needed . 

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I wouldn’t expect much movement . Just enough to get under the LT . They won’t go over in a season like this . Even if somehow they get back into the WC race , they will stay under to keep the option of going over next year open if needed . 

Agreed.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2024 by Rcal10