Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

[Backtobanks]

46 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They could be sellers and buyers and position themselves for 2025+ while in theory remaining in the race.  The issue is that don't really have a lot to sell even if they for whatever reason wanted to tank (unless they wanted to start moving position guys) nor is it worth going all-in on this team.

This is what I've been saying all along.  Trading a package of prospects (PCA, Morel, Cassie, Alcantara, Ballesteros, Triantos, Wicks, Triantos, Wesneski, etc.) certainly gets you in the door for Robert, Paredes, Vlad, etc. which fills the need for the big bat for the rest of this season and and the next few.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m in no rush to move on from Bellinger. He’s not perfect but has one of the better offensive approaches. It’s just as easy to see a couple 3-4 WAR RF seasons as whatever is motivating dumping him 

Morel…Amaya…Canario…Tauchman…Jorge Lopez (arbitrage or w/e)…Bote….Pretty much all prospects with Horton injured…There’s plenty to shuffle around without moving starters that’ll free up cap space and roster spots 

I think Bellinger will probably be fine, he just hasn't found the HR stroke this year, he's been off just a bit on pitches he usually cranks.

[731.4life]

I would listen to phone calls regarding Taillon and Bellinger, but I may not reply back. Elias in Baltimore is going to be in a lot of pressure, how much will he give up for Taillon and/or Bellinger? Orioles need a starter, but they already have their ace pitcher in Burnes. I think Taillon will get a lot more trade interest than the starters that are out there (exception Crochet). Mullins is struggling in center for the Orioles. The time to win for them is now. I think the Cubs could benefit from that very well. 

Does Houston need a starter? Does Atlanta need an outfielder? What about Cleveland and Kansas City...

I just believe there should be higher interest than usual for Bellinger and Taillon, but it doesn't mean the Cubs just have to let them go.

For them to be buyers, I think they need to go 6-3 in their next 9 games for me to be convinced.

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, 731.4life said:

I would listen to phone calls regarding Taillon and Bellinger, but I may not reply back. Elias in Baltimore is going to be in a lot of pressure, how much will he give up for Taillon and/or Bellinger? Orioles need a starter, but they already have their ace pitcher in Burnes. I think Taillon will get a lot more trade interest than the starters that are out there (exception Crochet). Mullins is struggling in center for the Orioles. The time to win for them is now. I think the Cubs could benefit from that very well. 

Does Houston need a starter? Does Atlanta need an outfielder? What about Cleveland and Kansas City...

I just believe there should be higher interest than usual for Bellinger and Taillon, but it doesn't mean the Cubs just have to let them go.

For them to be buyers, I think they need to go 6-3 in their next 9 games for me to be convinced.

I understand the reasoning behind people suggesting trading Taillon, but I wouldn’t do it if I was the Cubs FO. I hope they don’t. He is reasonably priced for the next 2 years and I just don’t trust the Cubs will use that money and probably even more, to bring in another solid MOR starting pitcher. I would be fine with Bellinger being traded as well as any other players not expected to be in the 25’ team. That would be Wisdom, Tauchman, any pen arm, Hendricks. Maybe even Morel if the Cubs do decide he isn’t going to be their 3rd baseman moving forward. And that should be their decision. The problem with Morel is you might be trading him at his lowest value. So unless someone sees a young 30+ homer guy who can improve and pays accordingly, they might be better off not moving him. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The problem with Morel is you might be trading him at his lowest value. So unless someone sees a young 30+ homer guy who can improve and pays accordingly, they might be better off not moving him. 

I don't know. In the same way you aren't going to fool other teams by pointing to Taillon's ERA (and covering up his FIP/xFIP), other teams are absolutely aware that Morel is underperforming his xwOBA by 51 points, that he's cut his K rate from 31% last year to 23.5% this year, his walk rate went from 8.5% to 10.9%, etc. Another year of control is gone and third base is probably written off, but there's a quality bat there that hasn't failed yet at second base. 

[Bertz]

I wonder if we see a simultaneous buy and sell deal this deadline.  Specifically I wonder if we see Bellinger shipped out to make sure he's not on next year's payroll even if the team is otherwise buying.  For example something like Bellinger out Jansen + Tanner Scott in.

Payroll for next year is currently ~$165M, plus possibly Bellinger and possibly Neris.  Neris is pacing behind where he needs to be to hit his player option, so if he does come back it means his recently improved pitching continued and he was wanted back.  Set him aside.

Bellinger's tougher.  I'd guess it's something like 60/40 that he'd opt out if he keeps playing like he has to this point?  He's playing worse than last year, but that was expected and the offense has settled in about where it was projected to without catering like '21/'22.  Plus he has the QO off his back.

If we assume the luxury tax line is the payroll cap again, the difference between Bellinger and not is an offseason with ~$70M to spend vs. one with ~$45M.  With holes in the bullpen, C, and 3B (plus nice to haves of a RHH compliment in CF and additional heft at SP and DH) those two budget levels are very different.

It's not the end of the world if Bellinger is back next year, he's probably the everyday RF and shifts Seiya to primary DH.  And you're of course better insulated from Busch/Happ injuries or a PCA faceplant.  But I think with PCA and Tauchman in hand there are ways you'd rather spend that money.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I understand the reasoning behind people suggesting trading Taillon, but I wouldn’t do it if I was the Cubs FO. I hope they don’t. He is reasonably priced for the next 2 years and I just don’t trust the Cubs will use that money and probably even more, to bring in another solid MOR starting pitcher.

They've done well with Taillon and Imanaga on value, i have some confidence they can find more.  Taillon is a career 3.92 career ERA SP, which is solid, but can be replaced at good value just about any offseason.  If they can get something for him worth the bother then sure i'd trade him.  Taillon has 2 years of control left at a good salary, i'm sure they can get something pretty good back for that.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

They've done well with Taillon and Imanaga on value, i have some confidence they can find more.  Taillon is a career 3.92 career ERA SP, which is solid, but can be replaced at good value just about any offseason.  If they can get something for him worth the bother then sure i'd trade him.  Taillon has 2 years of control left at a good salary, i'm sure they can get something pretty good back for that.

Your second sentence and fourth sentence are kinda in conflict though, right? If he's replacement level, then we aren't getting anything for him. If he's worth giving up something good for, he's going to be hard to replace. There are 53 starters over 90 innings this year with an ERA below that 3.92 number. Taillon is 19th. As boring as he may be as a pitcher, they don't fall off trees. 

[731.4life]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The problem with Morel is you might be trading him at his lowest value. So unless someone sees a young 30+ homer guy who can improve and pays accordingly, they might be better off not moving him. 

It's a gamble that I'm sure the front office isn't willing to take. Counsell basically gave up on him at 3rd base for Mastrobuoni. He's not playing 2nd base if Nico is on the roster. I'm not really sure if the at bats are there for him in 2025. What if he never improves and pays accordingly?

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know. In the same way you aren't going to fool other teams by pointing to Taillon's ERA (and covering up his FIP/xFIP), other teams are absolutely aware that Morel is underperforming his xwOBA by 51 points, that he's cut his K rate from 31% last year to 23.5% this year, his walk rate went from 8.5% to 10.9%, etc. Another year of control is gone and third base is probably written off, but there's a quality bat there that hasn't failed yet at second base. 

Very true. And I haven’t given up on his bat either. But the problem is I don’t see him at third next year. I guess if Bellinger goes go Morel can be the DH and they can trade for/sign a third baseman. The issue is, if they go FA and sign Chapman, their offense isn’t improved. If they trade for Parades, maybe that improves the offense, but at what cost? I am really in the fence with Morel. I think he still can be good. But not sure he fits this team. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

It's a gamble that I'm sure the front office isn't willing to take. Counsell basically gave up on him at 3rd base for Mastrobuoni. He's not playing 2nd base if Nico is on the roster. I'm not really sure if the at bats are there for him in 2025. What if he never improves and pays accordingly?

I am not sure Counsell gave up on Morel at third. I think that had Bellinger not gotten hurt Morel would be playing 3rd daily. Based on who is in the roster now, it makes sense to play Mastrobuoni and if he is playing he is obviously at 3rd. But if Bellinger comes back and the choices was either one of the outfielders as DH and then they fill 3rd with either Mastrobuoni or Morel, Morel would be starting at 3rd.

Edited July 16, 2024 by Rcal10

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Your second sentence and fourth sentence are kinda in conflict though, right? If he's replacement level, then we aren't getting anything for him. If he's worth giving up something good for, he's going to be hard to replace. There are 53 starters over 90 innings this year with an ERA below that 3.92 number. Taillon is 19th. As boring as he may be as a pitcher, they don't fall off trees. 

Well he's not "replacement level" in terms of being a replacement player, he's an above-average MLB starter.  He has value to contending teams right now looking for SP, especially while having a good season and his contract.  Good relievers also have trade value at the deadline, but good relievers can also be had in any offseason.

We have trade leverage because above-average SP at the deadline are a bit scarce and teams want them, but during the offseason in FA they aren't as scarce, they come at-cost and acquired without giving up another player.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know. In the same way you aren't going to fool other teams by pointing to Taillon's ERA (and covering up his FIP/xFIP), other teams are absolutely aware that Morel is underperforming his xwOBA by 51 points, that he's cut his K rate from 31% last year to 23.5% this year, his walk rate went from 8.5% to 10.9%, etc. Another year of control is gone and third base is probably written off, but there's a quality bat there that hasn't failed yet at second base. 

I wouldn't trade Morel, he's decent backup at 2B/SS in case of injury.  If Shaw or Triantos come up and DH is covered by someone who can hit as well as Morel then he'd be expendable.

[Cuzi]

Why on earth are people so damn afraid of trading a "decent backup," which is a stretch considering he's a replacement level player as it stands, for a potential decent starter?

[Stratos]

36 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Why on earth are people so damn afraid of trading a "decent backup," which is a stretch considering he's a replacement level player as it stands, for a potential decent starter?

Fear has nothing to do with it.  How are they going to get a decent starter for a replacement player as you say?  You can't make both arguments at the same time.  Why would they trade a guy if they need him?  We need depth and, as of now, a DH and backup middle infielder.  How much do you expect to get for a guy who's an ok DH that sucks at fielding & having a 96 wRC+ year at the plate?

[Cuzi]

Morel is prearb for 1 more year. If a team is projecting him as an adequate 2B and betting on his batted ball profile, he's not nearly as worthless as people claim he is on this forum.

The guy is on pace for 30 HRs and 84 RBIs while currently having a .218 BABIP and a xwOBA that is 14 points higher than his career high. His only position on the Cubs is 3B and he completely sucks there. Why hold on to him as a backup to 2B/SS when you have a SS playing 2B, Miles Mastrobuoni, David Bote, Matt Shaw, and James Triantos all either on the MLB roster or less than a year away from being an option?

Edited July 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[muntjack]

I'm going to hold tight to the opinion that trading Morel would be a mistake.   As said,  he's pre-arb, has already made a significant adjustment at the plate (K/BB)  and hits the ball incredibly hard.  He's one final adjustment from being an offensive superstar,  and though he may never take that step,  he costs nothing but PAs on what is currently a middling team.   Give him those PAs and see if he keeps growing.  

[Cuzi]

If the Cubs get serious about actually being a legit WS contender, there are no PA's for Morel to be given. The only way to guarantee him PA's is to continue half assing this "rebuild."

Suzuki would be a better DH. Virtually anybody would be a better 3B. At best you are talking about spot starts and pinch hitting. They's done that for 2 years and he was a 1 WAR player... Whoopty do Basil! There's likely more value to be had out of Morel in trade than on the roster. It's the exact same scenario the Cubs found themselves in this past offseason.

Edited July 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[thawv]

13 hours ago, Stratos said:

I wouldn't trade Morel, he's decent backup at 2B/SS in case of injury.  If Shaw or Triantos come up and DH is covered by someone who can hit as well as Morel then he'd be expendable.

I'd rather have Morel on the roster as a power stick off the bench, with the periodic starts due to matchups, opposed to trading him.  His projection was a role player off the bench, and was thrusted in to the every day lineup.  That's not who he is on a team trying to win a WS.   The best way to improve bench depth is to move starters to the bench, while replacing them with better players.  And it obviously improves the starting roster.  I think Morel has more bench value than trade value. 

[CubinNY]

Is there a pre-trade Michael Busch running around out there at 3rd base? I know the Baltimore has somewhat of a jam up at 3rd, but they are gearing up for Skubal. 

[Tim]

19 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Is there a pre-trade Michael Busch running around out there at 3rd base? I know the Baltimore has somewhat of a jam up at 3rd, but they are gearing up for Skubal. 

I'm partial to Eguy on the padres.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

38 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Is there a pre-trade Michael Busch running around out there at 3rd base? I know the Baltimore has somewhat of a jam up at 3rd, but they are gearing up for Skubal. 

He's had enough MLB PAs that he might just not be good enough, but Baty is the one comes to mind.  Top 50 prospect, hit well without major red flags at all minor league levels, plays an okay 3rd defensively, and blocked on the current roster.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I'd rather have Morel on the roster as a power stick off the bench, with the periodic starts due to matchups, opposed to trading him.  His projection was a role player off the bench, and was thrusted in to the every day lineup.  That's not who he is on a team trying to win a WS.   The best way to improve bench depth is to move starters to the bench, while replacing them with better players.  And it obviously improves the starting roster.  I think Morel has more bench value than trade value. 

I could see this scenario as well. So even if Bellinger comes back, which gives the Cubs 4 outfielders for 3 spots, and the Cubs add a third baseman next off season, Morel basically becomes the 10th man. With giving guys off days, I can actually see this working too. Basically next off season get a 3rd baseman, catcher, pen arm, and maybe a starting pitcher. Those needs are in order of importance, IMO. If they get a 3rd baseman in trade it would be easier to then fill all other spots. If they signed Chapman it might not be so each to add all the other spots needed. But they should have around $40M+ to work with, even if Bellinger stays. That should get them one higher priced guy and then fill the other spots via trade if they have too. And as you said, with Morel on the bench and then maybe Tauchman as well, the bench is pretty good. They would have a back up catcher and one other guy. 

[Derwood]

It's amusing seeing the social media "takes" on Morel. Everyone thinks he's the worst hitter on the team, strikes out more than anyone, etc., etc.

Truth is that he's 3rd on the team in K's (behind Busch and Happ) and just two more than Swanson. He's also the unluckiest hitter alive in terms of expected hits vs. actual average

[Rob]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He's had enough MLB PAs that he might just not be good enough, but Baty is the one comes to mind.  Top 50 prospect, hit well without major red flags at all minor league levels, plays an okay 3rd defensively, and blocked on the current roster.

I mentioned Baty as a potential return for Tauchman a week or so back. I'm still not sure I pull the trigger, but it's reasonable.