Bears Week 4 vs Broncos Sunday at noon on CBS

[jersey cubs fan]

A quintessential “only airing in the home markets” matchup here as the networks start to learn some lessons they should have known months ago. 
 

everybody knows Poles and Eberflus have failed miserably and are in way over their heads. Getsy and Fields are right there with them. But I’d like to give honorable mention to the Chicago sports media that bought into this team with exactly zero evidence that things were improving. 
 

people assumed a defensive minded head coach could improve the defense, just by being a guy that cares about that side of the ball? We have to realize that 4-3 Tampa 2 defenses do not thrive by schemes. That style of defense requires dominant pass rush ability and tremendous depth at all three levels. If there are weaknesses, they are easily exploited. Bend but don’t break doesn’t work if all you do is the bend portion. You can’t coach your way out of lack of talent. 
 

A loss here means going into a short week road trip at 0-4 and this team does not strike me as a bounce back on short notice group. A veteran QB should be able to take advantage of this garbage team. Denver was embarrassed this week but the difference is they actually acknowledged the embarrassment and will probably come out to compete. The Bears have their head in the sand and do not seem to realize how bad they are. 
 

it’s gonna be ugly folks but the weather should be nice. Go outside and enjoy the fall while you can. Check back here for the obituary. 

[CubinNY]

a must-win game? 

When is the week before the 1st bye? That would be an excellent time to find a coaching staff and give them two weeks to implement a new plan to change things. It's what I would do as a GM if I were trying to save my job. 

[jersey cubs fan]

Just now, CubinNY said:

a must-win game? 

When is the week before the 1st bye? That would be an excellent time to find a coaching staff and give them two weeks to implement a new plan to change things. It's what I would do as a GM if I were trying to save my job. 

The bye week is week 13, after a MNF game in Minnesota. You will not find a staff at that time. 
 

you will not get any good coaches in here during the season. The most likely scenario is Getsy gets canned and the QB coach takes the position on an interim basis. Best case scenario is Eberflus is canned and some rando position coach gets the interim tag. 
 

Maybe Jon Hoke gets that gig as one of the most experienced coaches. 

[WrigleyField 22]

10 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

The bye week is week 13, after a MNF game in Minnesota. You will not find a staff at that time. 
 

you will not get any good coaches in here during the season. The most likely scenario is Getsy gets canned and the QB coach takes the position on an interim basis. Best case scenario is Eberflus is canned and some rando position coach gets the interim tag. 
 

Maybe Jon Hoke gets that gig as one of the most experienced coaches. 

A mini bye after Commanders game week 5 as well. 10 day break with a home game on the 15th followed by another home game on the 22nd.

 

The next two games would have to continue to go really bad for a Flus firing at that point, I think. But if offense is still directionless and Fields struggling maybe a Getsy canning. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I thought for the first two games they looked like an ordinary bad, 5-12 destined NFL team.  Yesterday they looked like a historic threat to go 0-17, but the chiefs are really really good and the broncos are really really not.  This week should tell us more.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fun fact: eberflus has never beaten a first string qb as bears coach.

[jersey cubs fan]

13 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I thought for the first two games they looked like an ordinary bad, 5-12 destined NFL team.  Yesterday they looked like a historic threat to go 0-17, but the chiefs are really really good and the broncos are really really not.  This week should tell us more.

 

Double digit losses to two mediocre teams didn’t strike me as simply ordinary bad. 

[WrigleyField 22]

15 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I thought for the first two games they looked like an ordinary bad, 5-12 destined NFL team.  Yesterday they looked like a historic threat to go 0-17, but the chiefs are really really good and the broncos are really really not.  This week should tell us more.

 

Yea, it's amazing how terrible they looked against KC, even expecting bad.  7-0 through 1 Q still felt like a insurmountable route. You could just see it. 

They couldn't get a better bounce back slate than Denver-Washington. Then who knows what state Viking are in, but Raiders next after that, who also look weak.

After that, Carolina is only REALLY weak opponent on slate (though TBD how strong Arizona will stay as season drags on for a talent-stripped roster), but looking like the projections of weak overall schedule may bear out.  If they can go into mini bye at 2-3, a 6 win season looks attainable (which would still be considered a failure season to me, but probably wouldn't lead to compete FO overhaul or mid year firings)

 

Will be interesting to see the home crowd on Sunday. The booing will be quick to trigger and now I'm wondering if this team can even handle that.

Edited September 25, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[UMFan83]

16 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Fun fact: eberflus has never beaten a first string qb as bears coach.

Do you mean a QB who is currently 1st string? Lance was the first string QB in SF when we played them. Mac Jones started the Patriots game but didn’t play most of it so ok. Davis Mills was the starter for the 2022 Texans and played the whole game

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yea, it's amazing how terrible they looked against KC, even expecting bad.  7-0 through 1 Q still felt like a insurmountable route. You could just see it. 

They couldn't get a better bounce back slate than Denver-Washington. Then who knows what state Viking are in, but Raiders next after that, who also look weak.

After that, Carolina is only REALLY weak opponent on slate (though TBD how strong Arizona will stay as season drags on for a talent-stripped roster), but looking like the projections of weak overall schedule may bear out.  If they can go into mini bye at 2-3, a 6 win season looks attainable (which would still be considered a failure season to me, but probably wouldn't lead to compete FO overhaul or mid year firings)

 

Will be interesting to see the home crowd on Sunday. The booing will be quick to trigger and now I'm wondering if this team can even handle that.

I can't even fathom 6 wins at this point. I think it's significantly more likely they go 0-17 than win 6 games. Right now I'd put the over under at 2 games.

[raw]

58 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

A loss here means going into a short week road trip at 0-4 and this team does not strike me as a bounce back on short notice group.

They don't strike me as a bounce back on long notice group. They've had 11 months and a full offseason to bounce back and haven't.

[WrigleyField 22]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I can't even fathom 6 wins at this point. I think it's significantly more likely they go 0-17 than win 6 games. Right now I'd put the over under at 2 games.

Well current Vegas odds would put the probability of beating both Denver and Washington at about 22%. (was also going to look up 538 prediction models but looks like they are now wrapped up totally under ABC News and the sports content didn't follow- so not sure if all that content is no more or somewhere else in the ESPN/ABC network of content)

 

But yea, I can't fathom 6 wins right now either, but I do think KC was always going to be a tough measuring stick for exactly how bad they were. But to the extent it can, it does look really bad.  I'd probably put to O/U still at 3.5 just cuz it's the NFL, but yea.  That said if they pulled off 2-3, suddenly it looks just like a John Fox Bears team.

Edited September 25, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[raw]

So yesterday, Bears/KC was the national game of the week. FOX cut from the game at halftime to show Cowboys/Cardinals. But because it was the national game, it wasn't available on Sunday Ticket either, so I couldn't watch the 2nd half. For this game, I will be at my sister's wedding, so I will miss this too. This is the best thing to come out of the Poles/Flus regime!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

15 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Do you mean a QB who is currently 1st string? Lance was the first string QB in SF when we played them. Mac Jones started the Patriots game but didn’t play most of it so ok. Davis Mills was the starter for the 2022 Texans and played the whole game

Ok fine I saw a doomer stat on Reddit and didn't check it 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Ok fine I saw a doomer stat on Reddit and didn't check it 

So current backups, basically (with Mac not playing full game)

[WrigleyField 22]

37 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Well current Vegas odds would put the probability of beating both Denver and Washington at about 22%. (was also going to look up 538 prediction models but looks like they are now wrapped up totally under ABC News and the sports content didn't follow- so not sure if all that content is no more or somewhere else in the ESPN/ABC network of content)

 

But yea, I can't fathom 6 wins right now either, but I do think KC was always going to be a tough measuring stick for exactly how bad they were. But to the extent it can, it does look really bad.  I'd probably put to O/U still at 3.5 just cuz it's the NFL, but yea.  That said if they pulled off 2-3, suddenly it looks just like a John Fox Bears team.

Looks like at least the season predictions moved over to ESPN, but not game by game Elo predictions.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi/_/view/projections

 

So 5.2-11.8 projected W-L.  "Only" 3rd worse, with Carolina and Denver having slightly worse projections.

 

So yea, an awful by all metrics Denver team. Also reeling. You get them at home instead of having to play at altitude at mile high.  The Bears either win Q1 and start the momentum ball early, or the booing may not end all season.  

 

Also found individual game predictions.  So between Vegas and ESPN, the short term out look for Bears is:

 

1. 20-22% chance they get a short term turnaround and enter mini-bye at 2-3.  That saves everyones asses for a bit, I'd think.

2. 28-30% chance they are 0-5 and would be absolutely reeling, and then I think in season change really has a good chance.

3. 48-52% chance the are 1-4, with perhaps mixed bag, but still bad enough that you aren't thinking in-season turn around

Edited September 25, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[gflore34]

16 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Looks like at least the season predictions moved over to ESPN, but not game by game Elo predictions.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/fpi/_/view/projections

 

So 5.2-11.8 projected W-L.  "Only" 3rd worse, with Carolina and Denver having slightly worse projections.

 

So yea, an awful by all metrics Denver team. Also reeling. You get them at home instead of having to play at altitude at mile high.  The Bears either win Q1 and start the momentum ball early, or the booing may not end all season.  

 

Also found individual game predictions.  So between Vegas and ESPN, the short term out look for Bears is:

 

1. 20-22% chance they get a short term turnaround and enter mini-bye at 2-3.  That saves everyones asses for a bit, I'd think.

2. 28-30% chance they are 0-5 and would be absolutely reeling, and then I think in season change really has a good chance.

3. 48-52% chance the are 1-4, with perhaps mixed bag, but still bad enough that you aren't thinking in-season turn around

Win or lose if same hot mess we've seen continues, I would think someone Getsy, Eberflus is going be out of job next Monday.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Win or lose if same hot mess we've seen continues, I would think someone Getsy, Eberflus is going be out of job next Monday.

Should they be? Absolutely. Will they be? I have supreme doubts. The Bears will continue to do their old timey Bears tradition nonsense and let them finish the year before moving on.

[The_Achiever]

This game seems like a make-or-break for whatever you'd consider a "success" at this point.  

Unfortunately I don't expect this unit to come together under pressure and expect another ugly performance.  The crowd will be ready to jump on them and I expect they'll crumble.  Fields is broken and the coaching staff is incompetent.  Lookout below.  

[gflore34]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Should they be? Absolutely. Will they be? I have supreme doubts. The Bears will continue to do their old timey Bears tradition nonsense and let them finish the year before moving on.

Breaking with their dumb ass tradition might actually confirm their "anger" and "concerns"  BS.

[Soul]

20 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Should they be? Absolutely. Will they be? I have supreme doubts. The Bears will continue to do their old timey Bears tradition nonsense and let them finish the year before moving on.

Also old-timey:  letting a coach have his 3 years regardless of how bad he is.

My best guess:  Eberflus gets to fire coordinators after this year but keeps his job, because.....3 years.

[WrigleyField 22]

I've never put too much behind their history and tradition.  I think they were pushed close with both Trestman and Nagy and eventually it will give.  George has been at head for 12 years now (and failing) and has a new external president.  At some point it will given and they'll do the in-year firing.

[gflore34]

19 minutes ago, The_Achiever said:

This game seems like a make-or-break for whatever you'd consider a "success" at this point.  

Unfortunately I don't expect this unit to come together under pressure and expect another ugly performance.  The crowd will be ready to jump on them and I expect they'll crumble.  Fields is broken and the coaching staff is incompetent.  Lookout below.  

Success has to be an extremely low bar, at this point, I'll take people lining up properly, no false starts,. Things like Fields hitting open receivers and them catching the ball might be too much.

Edited September 25, 2023 by gflore34

[Soul]

1 minute ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

I've never put too much behind their history and tradition.  I think they were pushed close with both Trestman and Nagy and eventually it will give.  George has been at head for 12 years now (and failing) and has a new external president.  At some point it will given and they'll do the in-year firing.

If they do an in-year firing I will surprised, in a good way.

[WrigleyField 22]

Just now, Soul said:

If they do an in-year firing I will surprised, in a good way.

The best thing I can say about George is he has been fairly agressive since he took over. Incompetent, but not passive.

Honestly I think a big reason that Nagy wasn't fired in season was just that he was contemplating Pace's future until the very end. He wasn't going to make one decision final before the other I think.

If he feels like he is still backing Poles, an in season firing may make more sense since Poles can get a head start.  Of course it could also end up a solely Poles decision as to fire mid year or not (if he has the confidence of Warren/George)