Pete Alonso

[JD94]

https://x.com/chisportupdates/status/1694167804474229097?s=46&t=iRdezfuJVGBU0wPvMftX0w
 

I wonder if we circle back in the offseason? Probably depends on multiple things like if we re sign Bellinger, PCA, perhaps Ohtani, the direction the Mets choose to go in the offseason, etc. It’s still interesting though. 

[UMFan83]

So instead of trading Alonso to the Cubs, they kept him and he single-handedly won the Mets 2 games against the Cubs.  Good stuff.

I'm not a huge Alonso fan at least relative to others, I like him and would happily take him but he'd be below Ohtani and Bellinger on my offseason priority list, especially knowing it would take prospect capital to acquire him.

[Tryptamine]

Well if you listen to metsrefugees,  they think the asking price should have been top 3 prospect in baseball Jackson Chourio+, which is just absolutely absurd.  So comparatively that's like asking for PCA+Shaw at minimum.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

31 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Well if you listen to metsrefugees, 

I'm gonna stop you right there

[NorthsideAvenger]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Well if you listen to metsrefugees,  they think the asking price should have been top 3 prospect in baseball Jackson Chourio+, which is just absolutely absurd.  So comparatively that's like asking for PCA+Shaw at minimum.

The Braves gave up four top 20 prospects for Matt Olson (who is a few months older than Alonso). Braves also extended him for 8/168m. Is that what we are looking at for Pete Alonso?

 

[JD94]

3 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

The Braves gave up four top 20 prospects for Matt Olson (who is a few months older than Alonso). Braves also extended him for 8/168m. Is that what we are looking at for Pete Alonso?

 

I don’t think you can use Oakland as a reference for a trade package. They clearly value prospects differently than most. Alonso will definitely cost one of our top guys +, but I think he’s worth it. Obviously it won’t be PCA because he will be in the majors. I also wouldn’t give Horton for him. I’d give anybody else as a headliner although I *almost* have Ferris in the Horton category as untouchable unless it’s for a Soto type talent. 

[Rex Buckingham]

A trade for Alonso seems like a good place to use a guy like Alcantara.  Maybe add a Gallardo/Franklin type and Christian Hernandez or Ed Howard?  Is that too much?  A good prospect at the top, a decent mid-rotation type pitching prospect, and a MI prospect who has lost a little luster

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

A trade for Alonso seems like a good place to use a guy like Alcantara.  Maybe add a Gallardo/Franklin type and Christian Hernandez or Ed Howard?  Is that too much?  A good prospect at the top, a decent mid-rotation type pitching prospect, and a MI prospect who has lost a little luster

Not close, IMO. Going to hurt bad to trade for Alonso. Probably not worth it. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BBTV has Alcantara alone as appropriate value for Alonso. There's likely some 2nd/3rd piece of a similar caliber as Rex's suggestion to make sure you're the high bid or to account for the QO benefit, but ultimately it's only one year of Alonso you're buying and we know from the price of deadline rentals that it isn't exorbitant.

[Tryptamine]

If we're talking strictly fair value, I think it's around Alcantara+Arias, but knowing the backlash from the fans if the Mets sell Pete, I suspect they're going to demand something like Shaw+Caissie+, which I am not even slightly interested in for 1 year of a 1B just so I can then be forced to offer them 6/180 on a contract that wont start until Alonso is already 30. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

They should just do what the cardinals do and trade a bunch of guys of zero consequence.

[mul21]

22 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is the entire algorithm for an extension his age and 1B? From the same franchise that was scripted to hand 1B over to a 25 YO Mervis without question? After signing a 29 YO Swanson and proooobably getting a 29 YO Ohtani? I think we’re massively underrating a truly elite MLB power flyball hitter who plays good D at a position they’ve got zero real options at for any foreseeable amount of time (all expected to contend otherwise now)

I’d say Shaw for Alonso and Wolf (the lefty who K’d some Cubs with 96-97) is a pretty deal for both sides based on Baez/Williams for Crow-Armstrong deal. Mets would love a cheap bat they can move fast and all over. Cubs trade from depth to get a lineup anchor for 2024 who has the real talent to be a Matt Olson/Sean Murphy move for them 

Equating Mervis at 1B for basically free at any age to Alonso there at $30MM annually is peak Tom intentionally misrepresenting everything anyone has ever said.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

36 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is the entire algorithm for an extension his age and 1B? From the same franchise that was scripted to hand 1B over to a 25 YO Mervis without question? After signing a 29 YO Swanson and proooobably getting a 29 YO Ohtani? I think we’re massively underrating a truly elite MLB power flyball hitter who plays good D at a position they’ve got zero real options at for any foreseeable amount of time (all expected to contend otherwise now)

I’d say Shaw for Alonso and Wolf (the lefty who K’d some Cubs with 96-97) is a pretty deal for both sides based on Baez/Williams for Crow-Armstrong deal. Mets would love a cheap bat they can move fast and all over. Cubs trade from depth to get a lineup anchor for 2024 who has the real talent to be a Matt Olson/Sean Murphy move for them 

I'm not opposed to trading for and extending Alonso, but also mostly because I don't anticipate anyone is lining up to give him 6/180.  He's not a good defender, and while he has a high bar of productivity that we shouldn't ignore, the lack of hit tool/AVG or walk rate means he's more Schwarber than the more well-rounded skillsets of Olson/Murphy(who also extended a year earlier than Alonso would be).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

A couple things here:

- What’s wrong with a 10% BB rate? 

- There was definitely some early career chase, but what about his combo of K rates (sub-20% during ‘21-‘22 despite chase, a healthy 21% with big gains in chase rate this year), shrinking SwStr (9.8% this year), EVs, barrels, LA/flyballs, etc suggest hit tool question marks anymore? His .256 xBA is easily abv the league’s .249. I’ve got no hit tool questions at this stage of his career

- This is a muuuuuch better hitter than Schwarber. Their x slashes are .218/.355/.456 vs .256/.390/.564 this year with Alonso having better all around periphs 

I don’t particularly care about the contract number itself - 180, whatever it is - because it’s a capped league that has worked very hard to stagnate and drop the real Value of wages anyway.  Honestly that 180 is seen as a longshot big ask seems most meaningful here. I’m mostly confident the 30 YO 1B algorithm will make him a tremendous value 

There's nothing *bad* about Alonso's BB or K rates, if anything the K rate is a positive for a player of his power.  But what I'm getting at is that even with all those extra balls in play he's not hitting for average and he's not going to be an OBP stud as a result given the lack of elite walk rate.  So while I agree that Alonso is a better hitter than Schwarber, when talking about the risk/reward of extending him he has more in common with Schwarber than he does with Murphy or Olson, who are diversifying their value to a greater degree than Alonso's (oversimplified) approach of 'hit fly balls and enough of them carry over the fence' without defense, baserunning, or out-avoidance as a plus.

[Backtobanks]

Just resign Bellinger and Candelario and be done with it.  If and when PCA is ready, Bellinger moves to 1B.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Interesting home/road splits on him…Is Citi a pitcher’s park or are Mets fans mushes? Maybe both? 

Away (1444 PAs): .270/.354/.575

Home (1315 PAs): .237/.334/.489

 

Does look like Citi is a pretty sneaky pitcher's park compared to how much you hear about the others down near it on the list(SD, SEA, OAK): https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=

[squally1313]

19 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Just resign Bellinger and Candelario and be done with it.  If and when PCA is ready, Bellinger moves to 1B.

I know this is off topic, but it's annoying to me how many people are seemingly cool with (and pining for) being the top bidder for Bellinger for a long term extension and then within weeks/months moving him from a premium defensive position to the easiest one on the field (with the highest bar for offensive production outside DH). 

[Backtobanks]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I know this is off topic, but it's annoying to me how many people are seemingly cool with (and pining for) being the top bidder for Bellinger for a long term extension and then within weeks/months moving him from a premium defensive position to the easiest one on the field (with the highest bar for offensive production outside DH). 

You're way more optimistic about PCA than I am.  There are many options available with Bellinger going to 1B or corner OF, If PCA is the real deal.  Trading top prospects for an inferior hitter and 1B (Alonso) and then extending him for just as much as Bellinger makes no sense to me.  

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Backtobanks said:

You're way more optimistic about PCA than I am.  There are many options available with Bellinger going to 1B or corner OF, If PCA is the real deal.  Trading top prospects for an inferior hitter and 1B (Alonso) and then extending him for just as much as Bellinger makes no sense to me.  

That's fine, regarding PCA. You said 'if and when' he is ready. I'm more saying that I don't have really any interest in a long term Bellinger deal if he winds up spending the vast majority of it at first base. 

Pete Alonso is a much better hitter than Clay Bellinger. 

[chibears55]

On 8/22/2023 at 9:51 PM, JD94 said:

https://x.com/chisportupdates/status/1694167804474229097?s=46&t=iRdezfuJVGBU0wPvMftX0w
 

I wonder if we circle back in the offseason? Probably depends on multiple things like if we re sign Bellinger, PCA, perhaps Ohtani, the direction the Mets choose to go in the offseason, etc. It’s still interesting though. 

Ohtani having TJ surgery,  so I'd prefer the cubs to spend that money elsewhere. 

Bellinger,  Candelario,  and trade for a true number one would be ideal for me.

I'm hoping Assad stays and shows he belongs in the rotation,  this way they'll have Steele, Taillon, and Assad inked in, go get a true no.1, and then have a ST battle for the no.5 spot with the ready prospects.

Smyly can go to the pen or see if they can move him in offseason.

Alonso would be fine if they can extend him right away, especially if it gonna cost a couple good prospects, otherwise I'd wait til next offseason and see what the $$$ will be. 

If they get Alonso and PCA comes up and sticks, Belli can always move to a corner spot.  I don't think Hoyer planning on keeping either Happ or Suzuki pass their contract.

Edited August 24, 2023 by chibears55

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I know this is off topic, but it's annoying to me how many people are seemingly cool with (and pining for) being the top bidder for Bellinger for a long term extension and then within weeks/months moving him from a premium defensive position to the easiest one on the field (with the highest bar for offensive production outside DH). 

So assuming PCA comes up do you have no interest in Bellinger this off season? Not like the cubs have a sure fire first baseman. I tend to think they will give Mervis a chance. But even if he is good, there is room for him and Bellinger. If PCA locks down center the DH can come from Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger and Mervis. Actually if both PCA and Mervis succeed that is a nice problem to have. 

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Ohtani having TJ surgery,  so I'd prefer the cubs to spend that money elsewhere. 

Bellinger,  Candelario,  and trade for a true number one would be ideal for me.

I'm hoping Assad stays and shows he belongs in the rotation,  this way they'll have Steele, Taillon, and Assad inked in, go get a true no.1, and then have a ST battle for the no.5 spot with the ready prospects.

Smyly can go to the pen or see if they can move him in offseason.

Alonso would be fine if they can extend him right away, especially if it gonna cost a couple good prospects, otherwise I'd wait til next offseason and see what the $$$ will be. 

If they get Alonso and PCA comes up and sticks, Belli can always move to a corner spot.  I don't think Hoyer planning on keeping either Happ or Suzuki pass their contract.

That pitcher you are referring to might be Stroman. With his injury he might not try free agency. If he does I doubt they spend on someone else too. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

51 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

That's fine, regarding PCA. You said 'if and when' he is ready. I'm more saying that I don't have really any interest in a long term Bellinger deal if he winds up spending the vast majority of it at first base. 

Pete Alonso is a much better hitter than Clay Bellinger. 

 

This feels like the crucial point.  For me, having Bellinger's flexibility to play 1B in the short run is not the same as him being anchored to 1B long term.  Like was pointed out, PCA is far from a sure thing, has injuries in his past, and generally will need to sit sometimes even if he's good.  A Bellinger deal will almost certainly outlive the corner OF deals too so you aren't signing up for 6 years of Cody Bellinger: First Baseman Extraordinaire even if PCA hits the ground running.

Or said another way, it reminds me a bit of the 'too many shortstops' dialogue from 2015-2016.  These things tend to figure themselves out, and even with the guaranteed deals to Happ/Suzuki the 1B flexibility means you can put a better lineup out in more games.  Especially if you pair Bellinger w/ Candelario you basically have one lineup spot unspoken for that you can fill with people who play any number of positions.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

That pitcher you are referring to might be Stroman. With his injury he might not try free agency. If he does I doubt they spend on someone else too. 

Even if Stroman comes back, the Cubs absolutely have to address the starting rotation.  They can't go into the season being one injury away (Stroman, Steele) from disaster.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So assuming PCA comes up do you have no interest in Bellinger this off season? Not like the cubs have a sure fire first baseman. I tend to think they will give Mervis a chance. But even if he is good, there is room for him and Bellinger. If PCA locks down center the DH can come from Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger and Mervis. Actually if both PCA and Mervis succeed that is a nice problem to have. 

I don't think, in an intelligent market, it's wise to try and outbid teams who are valuing him as a centerfielder. To make a more extreme hypothetical, Adley Rutschman's bat plays everywhere, but he absolutely gets more money if he went on the open market tomorrow because he can catch. The Dodgers probably shouldn't go offer him the biggest contract to play first base/DH. 

To TTs point, I know you don't want to be locked in to a rigid set of players, though I think there's a difference in having a bunch of shortstops locked up, under team control rather than this situation of having to pay top dollar for that flexibility. But also, if he's available for a price they think is attractive for someone to mostly play center, go do it, and no one says we need to be anchored to PCA? Go turn him into a cost controlled pitcher or whatever.