Pete Alonso

[Tim]

Just now, Cuzi said:

It does not matter how its filtered. It's a stat that shouldnt be used beyond seeing who has better positional value on the diamond.

Over that same time span, Alonso has +2 DRS.

He's far from the best defender at 1B but he's also not as bad as you are trying to portray him when he's 5th in innings during that span and you are trying to compare him against guys that have played half of his innings.

Yes, it was a lazy and quick way to show that he ranks poorly amongst first basemen. But he's not a good defender overall when you dig deeper into the defensive metrics, either. 

He's really, really good at hitting home runs. He walks enough to be...okay...at getting on base. He's a negative at everything else. He'll also be needing a new contract as a 30 year old, large, moderately unathletic dude already playing a below average first base. That aging profile sounds horrible. It's really hard to come up with guys that fit that profile that continued playing well into their 30's. It's really easy to come up with 2-3 times as many guys that dropped off hard.

[Cuzi]

I would absolutely consider trading someone like Alcantara for Alonso.

Alonso is exactly what this team needs in the lineup. He's a 4 WAR MLBer who's going to mash 40 HRs and drive in 120 RBIs. Alcantara is in High-A and already taking up a 40 man roster spot.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Cuzi

[chibears55]

51 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I would absolutely consider trading someone like Alcantara for Alonso.

Alonso is exactly what this team needs in the lineup. He's a 4 WAR MLBer who's going to mash 40 HRs and drive in 120 RBIs. Alcantara is in High-A and already taking up a 40 man roster spot.

Cubs fans have thought that about alot of players that did join them and most failed that expectation, just saying...

[Tim]

Who wants to take this challenge:  "He'll also be needing a new contract as a 30 year old, large, moderately unathletic dude already playing a below average first base. That aging profile sounds horrible. It's really hard to come up with guys that fit that profile that continued playing well into their 30's. It's really easy to come up with 2-3 times as many guys that dropped off hard."

I'll take the side of naming large, unathletic guys that dropped off rapidly in their 30's. I'm feeling pretty good with my lineup I've got in my head. Who wants to start naming the ones that aged well? 

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Safe to assume here that “unathletic” will remain nebulous and subjective at best? I don’t know what large is here either but would guess there’s more large stars in their 30s than small (whatever that is too) 

Let's use these as stand-ins. They're not perfect, but they're reasonable for a rough-cut list.

• Unathletic: single season stolen base high less than 15 (I could go lower, but let's keep the list fairly inclusive)
• Large: let's say 6'2" and 220 or bigger

I'll even provide a list of great 1B's since 1990 as a reference:  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&pos=1b&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1990&season=2023

[CubinNY]

19 minutes ago, Tim said:

Let's use these as stand-ins. They're not perfect, but they're reasonable for a rough-cut list.

• Unathletic: single season stolen base high less than 15 (I could go lower, but let's keep the list fairly inclusive)
• Large: let's say 6'2" and 220 or bigger

I'll even provide a list of great 1B's since 1990 as a reference:  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&pos=1b&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1990&season=2023

You're really talking yourself out of this trade. I think it's best just to say you don't want to trade the prospects for him. Your experiment is irrelevant. 

[CubinNY]

Alonso is going to tank HRs well into his mid to late 30s. I'm not particularly keen on giving up Alcantara for him. I'd bet the Mets want significantly more than that. If Jed trades for him, I'm going to be mostly happy, but they will likely be doing significant damage to the farm. I suspect the Mets would want more pitching than hitting though. 

[Cuzi]

I highly doubt the Mets get "significantly more" than Kevin Alcantara in an Alonso trade.

Alonso is a great hitter. He's a great run producer. But we are still talking about 1 year of control for a 1B/DH. We aren't talking about an ace pitcher here.

Freddie Freeman just struck a record breaking contract for the position at half the value of what the truly elite contracts are commanding.

1B/DH isn't a position teams are valuing that high. So while the Mets would be free to ask for whatever they want to ask for, they are unlikely to do much better than a top 60ish prospect.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

I highly doubt the Mets get "significantly more" than Kevin Alcantara in an Alonso trade.

Alonso is a great hitter. He's a great run producer. But we are still talking about 1 year of control for a 1B/DH. We aren't talking about an ace pitcher here.

Freddie Freeman just struck a record breaking contract for the position at half the value of what the truly elite contracts are commanding.

1B/DH isn't a position teams are valuing that high. So while the Mets would be free to ask for whatever they want to ask for, they are unlikely to do much better than a top 60ish prospect.

They will keep him then. 

[Cuzi]

Keeping him makes no sense. They just traded the 2 TOR pitchers they signed to compete because they aren't competing. They'll get more value out of trading Alonso in the offseason than they would a QO pick.

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Keeping him makes no sense. They just traded the 2 TOR pitchers they signed to compete because they aren't competing. They'll get more value out of trading Alonso in the offseason than they would a QO pick.

Makes no sense to you. Makes plenty of sense to Cohn and their front office. He's a guy who by the end of his career will be close to 500 HRs if not over. He's the face of their franchise and a fan favorite. Cohn obviously does not care about the dollars. So, trading for him is going to require some pain. I also assume if they traded for him, they would work out an extension with him, because the price for a rental isn't going to cut it for the Mets or the Cubs or probably most other teams who are smart.

Edited August 25, 2023 by CubinNY

[Cuzi]

What the Cubs do after a trade for him has no baring on the initial price for the rental.

Cohn may not care about the money, but he pretty clearly cares about turning the Mets into a winning team, and if Scherzer is to be believed for why he wanted out of NY, 2024 isn't in the cards for the Mets.

[CubinNY]

It's all speculation. We shall see. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

What the Cubs do after a trade for him has no baring on the initial price for the rental.

Cohn may not care about the money, but he pretty clearly cares about turning the Mets into a winning team, and if Scherzer is to be believed for why he wanted out of NY, 2024 isn't in the cards for the Mets.

Just thinking about it though, Alcantara would be a somewhat humors trade. The 2nd time he was traded for an aging 1stB who was the face of the franchise and would be going back to NYC albeit for the other team. Sort of a bookend deal. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by CubinNY

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Eeeeh, Alvarez...Lindor...Diaz when he comes back...Nimmo....They've got lots of faces. Alonso's gotten alot of guff from fans and media this year because he's hitting .222/.322, and of course his upcoming FA and what an extension means to a capped future is a hot topic. Mark Vientos is basically the Mervis of the Mets in that it would be convenient, maybe they move Kevin Parada off catcher, Ryan Clifford's got some potential, maybe they move Baty around (why I like a Shaw fit)

 

 

wrong. 

[chibears55]

Just go bring Rizzo back 😅

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Pondering a Possible Pete Alonso Trade

 

Quote

If you assume that Alonso’s next team will get $11 million plus some hard-to-quantify amount of value from having the first shot at extending Alonso or netting a possible qualifying offer compensation pick, that would put the return for Alonso somewhere in the range of a 50 FV prospect. Just to provide some context of what a 50 FV means, the current 50s on the Cubs and Brewers, two teams that have reportedly talked with the Mets, are James Triantos, Sal Frelick, Kevin Alcántara, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks. That’s not to say that all or any of these players would be offered in an Alonso trade, only that this is the level of prospect the Mets could expect under these assumptions.

 

He goes onto say that the possibility of underestimating Alonso's value means you would likely expect a lesser prospect or two to be tacked on in a finalized deal, but that you aren't getting to a higher caliber of lead prospect(he uses Chourio as an example, but you can extrapolate similarly to PCA).

 

[sneakypower]

that's pretty silly, you don't trade 3 top-100/50 FV prospects for one season of a 3-win player unless, your name is Dave Stewart or something like that

[We Got The Whole 9]

His Zips projections are basically why bother IMO

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah I'd probably pass. Everything about his profile screams that the market price will outweigh his contributions going forward.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Yeah I'd probably pass. Everything about his profile screams that the market price will outweigh his contributions going forward.

You act like it’s your horsefeathers money. Whatever he makes, he’ll be underpaid whether it’s with the Cubs or some other team. The real equation is the prospect costs. Tom’s a nutter, but Alonso is going to garner some prospect pain for the team that trades for him. They’re not going to get him for peanuts. Which is why I think he stays in NY or some team overpays (Milwaukee). He’ll have 80 HR against the Cubs by the time he retires. 

[Tim]

There are a lot of people in this thread overestimating what Alonso will provide over the next 5-7 years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

You act like it’s your horsefeathers money. Whatever he makes, he’ll be underpaid whether it’s with the Cubs or some other team. The real equation is the prospect costs. Tom’s a nutter, but Alonso is going to garner some prospect pain for the team that trades for him. They’re not going to get him for peanuts. Which is why I think he stays in NY or some team overpays (Milwaukee). He’ll have 80 HR against the Cubs by the time he retires. 

I meant both contract and prospect cost 

[Derwood]

Pete Alonso is not a generational talent. He may just be "big market Chris Davis" and completely crap himself in the next couple years

[CubinNY]

50 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Pete Alonso is not a generational talent. He may just be "big market Chris Davis" and completely crap himself in the next couple years

Go look at his HR rates, if he manages to stay relatively healthy he’s going to get close to or hit 500 HR. Steroid era aside, that’s the definition of a generational talent. Is he a great baseball player, no, but he’s a generational masher of HR. That’s plenty valuable in the modern game
 

Edited September 2, 2023 by CubinNY