2023 NL Playoff Race

[bukie]

I don't want to jinx anything, but I think the Cubs are officially in the playoff race this season (considering they currently hold the 3rd wildcard spot by a percentage point). Considering that, it's a good time to look at the NL this season and how the playoff race looks to be shaking out over the last 8 weeks of the season.

Current teams in order of playoff standings:
 

1. Atlanta Braves - Best record in baseball, just leaving town now having dropped 2 of 3 to the Cubs, but still a 100% sure thing for the playoffs and the top seed at this time. Only way they don't get the top spot is if the Dodgers go on an insane run AND the Braves tread water for 8 weeks. Best offense in MLB, best run differential in MLB, best team in MLB right now.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers - Spent much of the first half of the season battling with the Dbacks and Giants, but took over the division going into the All-Star break. Currently hold a 3 game division lead, so not a sure thing, but safely the 2nd best team in the NL at this time and in line for the 2nd playoff bye.
3. Milwaukee Brewers - Currently clinging to the NL Central with a negative run differential and an 11-11 record since the break. Everyone expects them to figure things out and take over the division, but it hasn't happened yet. The offense isn't good at all, having scored the 3rd fewest runs int he NL, just ahead of the Marlins and Pirates. Really in first place by default at this point, which I suppose is better than not in first place.
4. San Francisco Giants - Slowly building up steam since the break, their 13-9 record has seen them climb into the top WC spot, 3.5 games clear of trouble. They've ridden pitching this far, and are 66% likely to get to the playoffs based on current season data.
5. Philadelphia Phillies - Another team starting to create space int eh WC race, the Phillies are 13-10 since the break and are 3 games clear of a playoff spot now. More safe now because many of the teams near them have nose dived, rather than them making a run. 70% odds to make the playoffs based on in season data.
6. Chicago Cubs - Why we're all here, really. Early on a good team with bad results, now a good team with good results. 16-7 since the break, 3rd best RD in the NL, and it's been the offense and defense carrying the load of late. Currently 79% to make the playoffs based on in-season data, and a 59% chance to take the NL Central as things stand now.
7. Cincinnati Reds - Came out of nowhere in June to grab the NL Central lead, holding steady until just after the break, where they've taken a nosedive the past two weeks to fall from first to out of the playoff picture. Negative run differential, and the pitching is atrocious of late. Need to find 3 good pitchers and soon to stay afloat. Currently 37% to make the playoffs.
8. Miami Marlins - In an MLB.com article by Will Leitch written just this morning, he thinks the Marlins will win the last WC spot by default because they're the only team not fading. I'm not sure what season he's watching, because the Marlins are 5-16 since the break and to me are the most likely team to fall out of contention soon here, probably the worst of the teams in the playoff race.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks - Actually still in first place in the NL West going into the break, have gone 5-17 since to fall 8 games back of the Dodgers and a game out of WC contention. Currently projected with just a 16% chance at a playoff berth despite being just a game out right now.
10. San Diego Padres - Along with the Cubs, a potential scary late bloomer, the only team under .500 that didn't sell, and lurk just 2.5 games out of a WC spot as of now. 10 games out of first place, but to me the odds on favorite to nab the last WC spot. Currently a 52% chance at a playoff spot based on projections.

Out of contention: Mets, Pirates, Nationals, Cardinals, Rockies

So if I had to make an educated guess how things shake out the rest of the year, I'd go with Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Giants, Padres, with the Brewers coming up just short and the Reds, Marlins and Dbacks fading out of contention by the end of the year.

[bukie]

Not an ideal 9th inning for new Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald against the Twins. Clinging to a 3-2 lead, he gave up a first pitch tying HR, a walk, and then a walkoff HR. Diamondbacks fall a game behind the Cubs.

[Connor McConnor]

The Jinx part is a worry.  It's rare for the Cubs to enter a playoff race in August.  Im sure statistically it hasn't happened much in the last 100 years.  

[Rcal10]

If the Cubs end in a tie for the 6th spot with the Marlins, do they go to head to head to decide the spot? If so, Marlins win the tiebreaker. As of now Reds also win tor breaker. They have a 5-4 edge in head to head. So cubs need to win 3/4 when they play again. I am pretty sure they do not play a game to break ties. 

[bukie]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

If the Cubs end in a tie for the 6th spot with the Marlins, do they go to head to head to decide the spot? If so, Marlins win the tiebreaker. As of now Reds also win tor breaker. They have a 5-4 edge in head to head. So cubs need to win 3/4 when they play again. I am pretty sure they do not play a game to break ties. 

Correct, first tiebreaker is head to head, second tiebreaker is division record (even if both teams are not in the same division), third tiebreaker is league record, fourth tiebreaker is last half of interleague play record. From there they go back one game of interleague play at a time until ties are resolved.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, bukie said:

Correct, first tiebreaker is head to head, second tiebreaker is division record (even if both teams are not in the same division), third tiebreaker is league record, fourth tiebreaker is last half of interleague play record. From there they go back one game of interleague play at a time until ties are resolved.

Same with the division, I assume. Cubs don’t stack up too well with tiebreakers currently. 

[bukie]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Same with the division, I assume. Cubs don’t stack up too well with tiebreakers currently. 

They lose the tiebreakers with the Phillies, Marlins, and Dodgers, need to pick up one game against the Reds and Brewers, win the tiebreaker vs the Padres, and lead the tiebreaker against the Braves.

[UMFan83]

41 minutes ago, bukie said:

and lead the tiebreaker against the Braves.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If the Cubs end in a tie for the 6th spot with the Marlins, do they go to head to head to decide the spot? If so, Marlins win the tiebreaker. As of now Reds also win tor breaker. They have a 5-4 edge in head to head. So cubs need to win 3/4 when they play again. I am pretty sure they do not play a game to break ties. 

I hate that. Never do statistical tiebreakers for in/out scenarios.  Always extra game.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I hate that. Never do statistical tiebreakers for in/out scenarios.  Always extra game.

This was my biggest complaint about the new playoff system. Play 162 games and miss the playoffs because the Cubs lost 3 one run games in late April

[We Got The Whole 9]

If they had just won a couple more games in May...

[Outshined_One]

14 hours ago, ErniesHands said:

The Jinx part is a worry.  It's rare for the Cubs to enter a playoff race in August.  Im sure statistically it hasn't happened much in the last 100 years.  

As memory serves, this team was treading water in the 2015 Wild Card race before someone put in the cheat code for God Mode Jake Arrieta in the back half of the season.

[Brian707]

Off the top of my head, Cubs teams getting hot post August 1st.

1995? That team was a long shot but I seem to remember meaningful games the last week of the season.

2001- that team faded though

2007-Won the division but the Central was full of garbage so they were in it most of the season

I guess 1998, but that team also was in it most of the season.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Brian707

[pitchcs]

Ok wow, I had no idea there were three WC teams now.

[Hunter]

6 minutes ago, pitchcs said:

Ok wow, I had no idea there were three WC teams now.

MLB not quite as bad as the NBA. Only 2/5 of the MLB teams make the playoffs and not 1/2.

[PackLandVA]

Friday, September 24, 2004

Cubs beat the @Mets and sit at 87-66, maintaining the WC position. The Astros sit behind them at 85-69. The Cubs go 1-7 in their next eight games (1-5 at home) while the Astros go 7-1 in the same stretch (winning 7 straight to close out the season.). What was a 2 1/2 game lead turns into 3 game deficit. LaTroy with two BS in the final week.

Cubs treat the fans to a win on the last game of the season.

 

 

 

Incidentally, the Cubs were 11-2 prior to the last 9 games

Edited August 7, 2023 by PackLandVA

[Bobson Dugnutt]

41 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Off the top of my head, Cubs teams getting hot post August 1st.

1995? That team was a long shot but I seem to remember meaningful games the last week of the season.

2001- that team faded though

2007-Won the division but the Central was full of garbage so they were in it most of the season

I guess 1998, but that team also was in it most of the season.

I feel like I remember august being the beginning of the end in 2001, no?

[Brian707]

28 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

I feel like I remember august being the beginning of the end in 2001, no?

Yeah that is probably right.

 

That 2004 team, probably the least likeable Cubs team ever. I remember going to the Northwoods of Wisconsin with no internet, buying a paper a few days later and I couldn't believe the collapse.

[David]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

Off the top of my head, Cubs teams getting hot post August 1st.

1995? That team was a long shot but I seem to remember meaningful games the last week of the season.

2001- that team faded though

2007-Won the division but the Central was full of garbage so they were in it most of the season

I guess 1998, but that team also was in it most of the season.

2003

 

[soccer10k]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

As memory serves, this team was treading water in the 2015 Wild Card race before someone put in the cheat code for God Mode Jake Arrieta in the back half of the season.

Yeah, they were a few games over .500 and got swept by the Phillies in late July, including getting no-hit. The next day they were beating the Rockies before giving up a lead in the 9th only for KB to save them with a walkoff dong in the bottom half. They lost the next day to Colorado but won the series and never looked back.

Then a week or two later they swept the Giants in a 4 game set at Wrigley, finishing it off when Rondon loaded the bases with no outs in the 9th only to strike out 3 straight hitters. That gave them some space in the WC race.

[jersey cubs fan]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

As memory serves, this team was treading water in the 2015 Wild Card race before someone put in the cheat code for God Mode Jake Arrieta in the back half of the season.

They were 4-5 games above .500 pretty much all of June and July. They were in the thick of it all along, but not running away. That’s quite different from being way under .500 in July then surging into the race in early august.

[Hunter]

4 hours ago, Brian707 said:

Yeah that is probably right.

 

That 2004 team, probably the least likeable Cubs team ever. I remember going to the Northwoods of Wisconsin with no internet, buying a paper a few days later and I couldn't believe the collapse.

The 2004 team had 89 wins and ended up in 3rd place finishing 16 back of the Cardinals. They went 17-13 for the last month. Are you sure that was the one?

Edited August 7, 2023 by Hunter

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

This was my biggest complaint about the new playoff system. Play 162 games and miss the playoffs because the Cubs lost 3 one run games in late April

Ditto. I understand why they removed games 163 but I don't like it because

1. games 163 are an absolute riot
2. deciding tiebreakers in May is dumb

[jersey cubs fan]

Never should have lost the one game play in. Greatest part of recent playoff history. 

[bukie]

In the two weeks since I started this thread, everyone has effectively treaded water aside from the Braves, Dodgers, Giants and Padres. What does it all mean?

1.  The Braves and Dodgers effectively have the top 2 seeds locked up, so no byes are realistically in play anymore.
2. The Giants have fallen from safely clear of a playoff spot to in the muddle for the last 2 playoff spots.
3. The Padres have fallen more than 5 games out of a playoff spot, barely ahead of the Mets who gave up a month ago. Despite their solid underlying numbers, they're really in an uphill battle now and would have to go on an unreal tear to pass 4 teams that are 5+ games ahead of them.
4. The Cubs are still in a playoff spot at the moment, but could use another good run of wins to get into a solid position.