Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[WrigleyField 22]

Could definitely win one. Even just a 5% chance to win against Philly and Buffalo and a 15% chance against Detroit and Minny would equate to winning at least once 34% of the time.

 

What are the odds on any individual game...? Trying to find stats on historical outright wins at different underdog spreads and can't find it.

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears dropping out of the top 3 is the most likely scenario. It's just the least fun to talk about

It likely means Justin fields winning games on his own which is the only exciting thing this organization is capable of at the current moment.

[WrigleyField 22]

Bears dropping out of the top 3 is the most likely scenario. It's just the least fun to talk about

Is it the most likely scenario? I may take a top 3 bet over the field.

 

In any case top 5 feels like 90%+ confidence level for me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Bears dropping out of the top 3 is the most likely scenario. It's just the least fun to talk about

It likely means Justin fields winning games on his own which is the only exciting thing this organization is capable of at the current moment.

 

I get that, but I don't personally attribute wins to individual players. Fields has been playing his ass off, he doesn't need the team to win to prove it.

[Thurman Merman]

I know this is just how the NFL works, but it's still crazy to me that we were projected to have one of the easiest schedules before the season and wound up with one of the hardest.

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears dropping out of the top 3 is the most likely scenario. It's just the least fun to talk about

It likely means Justin fields winning games on his own which is the only exciting thing this organization is capable of at the current moment.

 

I get that, but I don't personally attribute wins to individual players. Fields has been playing his ass off, he doesn't need the team to win to prove it.

but watching him win would be fun

[Soul]

It would be nice to see Fields tear it up in a glorious victory. I can’t see regretting that during the draft just because it cost a position or two.

 

More likely, if we drop to say #5 and Poles picks a dud, I’m regretting the Poles hire.

[ChiCubsFan]

It would be nice to see Fields tear it up in a glorious victory. I can’t see regretting that during the draft just because it cost a position or two.

 

More likely, if we drop to say #5 and Poles picks a dud, I’m regretting the Poles hire.

 

But why not just root for Fields to play well and the team to lose? Defense is plenty bad enough.

[Soul]

It would be nice to see Fields tear it up in a glorious victory. I can’t see regretting that during the draft just because it cost a position or two.

 

More likely, if we drop to say #5 and Poles picks a dud, I’m regretting the Poles hire.

 

But why not just root for Fields to play well and the team to lose? Defense is plenty bad enough.

In the game itself I can’t root for them to lose. I can’t disagree with the logic of losing but I want to see Fields celebrating a great win this year. I think he’s earned that.

 

And I think the Bears are sure to lose most games anyway and get a high enough pick that a good GM can leverage to rebuild.

[Tim]

It would be nice to see Fields tear it up in a glorious victory. I can’t see regretting that during the draft just because it cost a position or two.

 

More likely, if we drop to say #5 and Poles picks a dud, I’m regretting the Poles hire.

 

But why not just root for Fields to play well and the team to lose? Defense is plenty bad enough.

In the game itself I can’t root for them to lose. I can’t disagree with the logic of losing but I want to see Fields celebrating a great win this year. I think he’s earned that.

 

And I think the Bears are sure to lose most games anyway and get a high enough pick that a good GM can leverage to rebuild.

They got sliding in the water against SF. Good enough. Gimme dat draft goodness.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It would be nice to see Fields tear it up in a glorious victory. I can’t see regretting that during the draft just because it cost a position or two.

 

More likely, if we drop to say #5 and Poles picks a dud, I’m regretting the Poles hire.

 

But why not just root for Fields to play well and the team to lose? Defense is plenty bad enough.

Because it's stupid

[WrigleyField 22]

I cannot stress enough that rooting against your team won't actually increase the likelihood they lose.

 

So don't be a weirdo. Cheer for your team to win, and only use tanking as loss hedging after the fact.

[Tryptamine]

Periodic reminder that if not for a last second fg against Houston, the Bears currently have the #1 pick that they could trade for a huge haul.

[WrigleyField 22]

Periodic reminder that if not for a last second fg against Houston, the Bears currently have the #1 pick that they could trade for a huge haul.

And a couple unlikely bounces from being a 10 seed.

 

Basically no matter what happens, Bears have probably overshot their tank median outcome by end of year. Whether it's 2, 3, 4, 5, it's gonna be a great pick.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Broncos getting Colt McCoy next week.

[BigbadB]

It would be nice to see Fields tear it up in a glorious victory. I can’t see regretting that during the draft just because it cost a position or two.

 

More likely, if we drop to say #5 and Poles picks a dud, I’m regretting the Poles hire.

 

But why not just root for Fields to play well and the team to lose? Defense is plenty bad enough.

Because it's stupid

 

You cheer for the team to win, but hope they lose.

[gflore34]

It would take some kind of capricious event for the Bears to win another game. This current Bears defense has made people like Marcus Marriota and Mike White look good, think about that. A ball bouncing off someone for a pick 6 or the officiating totally horsefeathering up a call that benefits the Bears is what's required for them to win another game.

[WrigleyField 22]

It would take some kind of capricious event for the Bears to win another game. This current Bears defense has made people like Marcus Marriota and Mike White look good, think about that. A ball bouncing off someone for a pick 6 or the officiating totally horsefeathering up a call that benefits the Bears is what's required for them to win another game.

Eh they've also shredded Ds because Fields can create 50 yard plays at any moment.

 

They're a 5-8 team with bad variance luck if you believe expected W-L at all.

 

Luckily all the 4 teams they play are still much better. But there's a plausible chance that they pull off a win here in the next 4 games. Luckily even with an extra win they still can't drop below 5th. And I'd say a fairly good chance that they don't drop past 4th, even with a win.

 

I will take that.

[raw]

It would take some kind of capricious event for the Bears to win another game. This current Bears defense has made people like Marcus Marriota and Mike White look good, think about that. A ball bouncing off someone for a pick 6 or the officiating totally horsefeathering up a call that benefits the Bears is what's required for them to win another game.

Eh they've also shredded Ds because Fields can create 50 yard plays at any moment.

 

They're a 5-8 team with bad variance luck if you believe expected W-L at all.

 

Luckily all the 4 teams they play are still much better. But there's a plausible chance that they pull off a win here in the next 4 games. Luckily even with an extra win they still can't drop below 5th. And I'd say a fairly good chance that they don't drop past 4th, even with a win.

 

I will take that.

 

Detroit and Minnesota both have an even point diff. They are beatable, and the Bears could have easily beaten both last time. Spotted Minnesota like 17 or 21 points and a late stupid fumble lost the game. And that was before Fields really became a weapon in the run game (though is this the game he had the TD called back?). Detroit is obviously hot right now, but the Bears definitely should have beaten them last time.

 

And call me crazy, but I'm looking at a potential upset in the Buffalo game. I don't know how the Bears stop them, but Allen has only surpassed 240 yards in the air 1x in the last 6 games, and they historically don't like to run the ball much (been much more willing and able as of late). Allen has also been prone to the occasional turnover. Throw in it's a Christmas Eve game, they are traveling and this game is sandwiched between 2 big matchups vs. AFC contenders (Miami, Cincy)....and stranger things have happened.

[WrigleyField 22]

So Kyler Murray with a torn ACL.

 

Any chance Arizona looks to do a little mini tank rebuild and sell some assets, like, I don't know, DeAndre Hopkins?

[jersey cubs fan]

So Kyler Murray with a torn ACL.

 

Any chance Arizona looks to do a little mini tank rebuild and sell some assets, like, I don't know, DeAndre Hopkins?

I don’t know who runs things there but Kingsbury in year 5 with up and down success so far doesn’t seem like a good tank option. They may just lose anyway.

[WrigleyField 22]

So Kyler Murray with a torn ACL.

 

Any chance Arizona looks to do a little mini tank rebuild and sell some assets, like, I don't know, DeAndre Hopkins?

I don’t know who runs things there but Kingsbury in year 5 with up and down success so far doesn’t seem like a good tank option. They may just lose anyway.

They're also in a tough spot having just extended both Kingsbury and Kiem, so I'm not banking on it. But it's slightly more likely now than it was 24 hours ago.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Vikings could easily have nothing to play for. Eagles and Cowboys have the tiebreak over Minnesota, and while SF has the tiebreaker (1 game back), they're starting Brock Purdy.

[WrigleyField 22]

The Vikings could easily have nothing to play for. Eagles and Cowboys have the tiebreak over Minnesota, and while SF has the tiebreaker (1 game back), they're starting Brock Purdy.

Superstar Brock Purdy.

 

Don't think Cowboys tiebreaker is really relevant unless they can somehow catch Philly.

 

So it really comes down to Minny and SF. Them being tied or SF back 1 keeps the game relevant. Just can't have them gain two games on Minny over next 3 weeks.

[minnesotacubsfan]

The Vikings could easily have nothing to play for. Eagles and Cowboys have the tiebreak over Minnesota, and while SF has the tiebreaker (1 game back), they're starting Brock Purdy.

Superstar Brock Purdy.

 

Don't think Cowboys tiebreaker is really relevant unless they can somehow catch Philly.

 

So it really comes down to Minny and SF. Them being tied or SF back 1 keeps the game relevant. Just can't have them gain two games on Minny over next 3 weeks.

 

i dont think any of that matters, there is only 1 bye this year i believe, and thats clearly Philly. only thing that comes into play is if SF and Minny see each other in the divisional round