Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[BigbadB]

What are the chances the Bears end up on Hard Knocks this year?

[raw]

What are the chances the Bears end up on Hard Knocks this year?

 

Seems like they'd be pretty good. 1 of 16 teams that haven't been on. Playoff teams from this or last year don't have to be on. Nor do any teams with a new HC.

 

Leaving only the Bears and possibly whoever misses the playoffs between Jags, Giants and Seahawks as the teams yet to be on. Of course, teams can be on more than once if they choose.

 

Also, I believe Bears get 1st crack at coaching the Senior Bowl this year if they end up with the worst record in the NFC. So that could be a huge draft prep tool to use for 2023.

[BigbadB]

What are the chances the Bears end up on Hard Knocks this year?

 

Seems like they'd be pretty good. 1 of 16 teams that haven't been on. Playoff teams from this or last year don't have to be on. Nor do any teams with a new HC.

 

Leaving only the Bears and possibly whoever misses the playoffs between Jags, Giants and Seahawks as the teams yet to be on. Of course, teams can be on more than once if they choose.

 

Also, I believe Bears get 1st crack at coaching the Senior Bowl this year if they end up with the worst record in the NFC. So that could be a huge draft prep tool to use for 2023.

 

It's kind of what I was thinking. Their situation this year makes them a good candidate. Young QB and a huge roster turnover. High draft pick possible. Hutchinson made for good tv this past year.

[raw]

What are the chances the Bears end up on Hard Knocks this year?

 

Seems like they'd be pretty good. 1 of 16 teams that haven't been on. Playoff teams from this or last year don't have to be on. Nor do any teams with a new HC.

 

Leaving only the Bears and possibly whoever misses the playoffs between Jags, Giants and Seahawks as the teams yet to be on. Of course, teams can be on more than once if they choose.

 

Also, I believe Bears get 1st crack at coaching the Senior Bowl this year if they end up with the worst record in the NFC. So that could be a huge draft prep tool to use for 2023.

 

It's kind of what I was thinking. Their situation this year makes them a good candidate. Young QB and a huge roster turnover. High draft pick possible. Hutchinson made for good tv this past year.

 

I think defensive minded head coaches make for better TV too. Not a bunch of nerd speak the offensive guys have. Eberflus' HITS principle would make good TV, I think. And then yeah, Fields and potentially a guy like Will Anderson at the top of the draft would be darlings. There will be a lot of battles at the end of the roster and the Bears are probably bringing in as many as 30-40 new faces between FAs, draft picks and UDFAs.

[Brian707]

These are the only teams exempt.

 

New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Commanders(will likely make the playoffs)

Chicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars(will likely make the playoffs)

 

So basically, its either Bears,Seahawks or Saints. Unless one of the exempt teams volunteers

[David]

The Bears seem to have enough sway with the league to avoid getting picked even when they're among that group. IIRC, that was the story the last time they fit that criteria. I've given up on hoping that they'll ever be picked. They seem to be very much against allowing that kind of access.

 

At least they have some OK in-house behind the scenes stuff being produced nowadays, but yeah.

[raw]

These are the only teams exempt.

 

New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Commanders(will likely make the playoffs)

Chicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars(will likely make the playoffs)

 

So basically, its either Bears,Seahawks or Saints. Unless one of the exempt teams volunteers

 

Ah, I missed the Saints. I thought they made the playoffs last year, but they finished a game out. Commanders are only slightly more likely to make it in than the Seahawks, and the Packers actually have the best odds, so potentially neither make it in.

[scarey]

I've been looking at pass rushers at the top of the draft wondering how much the Bears would be missing out on by trading down... and I really don't want to trade down after watching Will Anderson's highlight reel. I know he's been drawing a lot of Von Miller comparisons. His ridiculous ability to turn the corner does remind me of Miller, but his surprising strength (given his lower weight) and quick play recognition really remind me of Khalil Mack. If he were to turn out like either of these guys, it would be great. He really impresses me.

 

That being said, I was looking through the top 5 DL picks over the last few years... and there's enough bad in there to scare me. It definitely gives me pause, but I think everybody would agree that pass rusher is the top need for this team.

 

TLDR: Anderson looks so freaking good... but busts happen.

 

Somebody convince me we'd be better off trading down for multiple picks than grabbing Will Anderson.

[scarey]

BTW... I would be thrilled to see them draft Jalen Carter too. It just reinforced my thought that the Bears should not be trading down.

[gflore34]

I've been looking at pass rushers at the top of the draft wondering how much the Bears would be missing out on by trading down... and I really don't want to trade down after watching Will Anderson's highlight reel. I know he's been drawing a lot of Von Miller comparisons. His ridiculous ability to turn the corner does remind me of Miller, but his surprising strength (given his lower weight) and quick play recognition really remind me of Khalil Mack. If he were to turn out like either of these guys, it would be great. He really impresses me.

 

That being said, I was looking through the top 5 DL picks over the last few years... and there's enough bad in there to scare me. It definitely gives me pause, but I think everybody would agree that pass rusher is the top need for this team.

 

TLDR: Anderson looks so freaking good... but busts happen.

 

Somebody convince me we'd be better off trading down for multiple picks than grabbing Will Anderson.

 

I agree, strongly believe the Bears should hold on to the pick and draft Anderson. If there's a transforming, immediate impact player in the 2023 draft Anderson is that player. Don't know why but, if they end up at 2, I'm pretty confident Poles will hold on to the pick and draft Anderson.

 

Imagine what Anderson and any kind of a competent FA DL will do for the defense.

[WrigleyField 22]

BTW... I would be thrilled to see them draft Jalen Carter too. It just reinforced my thought that the Bears should not be trading down.

I don't want them trading down far, but I'd be happy even to get the Trubisky deal. I don't need the RG3 deal or something.

[jersey cubs fan]

It’s really chaps my hide that after adding nothing to the offense last year it looks like a strong possibility they wont be able to add an impact offensive player this year. There are no receivers or top tackles likely available in free agency and a greater than 50% chance they draft defense early. As bad a job that Poles did with offense this offseason and people are maybe rightfully saying D Line is the number one need.

[UMFan83]

Just for fun, let’s say the Bears were able to swing a deal for 2 additional first rounders and all 3 first round picks were mid-round. Starting in 2018 here is a best case and worst case scenario if the Bears made all 3 picks:

 

Best Case:

2018 - Minkah Fitzpatrick (11th)

2019 - Jeffery Simmons(19th)

2020 - Justin Jefferson (22nd)

 

Worst Case:

2018 - Josh Rosen (10th)

2019 - Andre Dillard (22nd)

2020 - Austin Jackson (17th)

 

I understand the love for Will Anderson and also understand the risk of drafting a bust in the first round. I still lean towards making a trade but I can understand the logic behind drafting a transformational player

[UMFan83]

It’s really chaps my hide that after adding nothing to the offense last year it looks like a strong possibility they wont be able to add an impact offensive player this year. There are no receivers or top tackles likely available in free agency and a greater than 50% chance they draft defense early. As bad a job that Poles did with offense this offseason and people are maybe rightfully saying D Line is the number one need.

 

I guess another reason to consider a trade down to get more immediate assets. One of the talking heads on Twitter, might have been a Sun times guy was saying the Bears would have to have a roughly 80% hit rate on moves this offseason to contend for the playoffs in 2023. That may ultimately be right. We’ll see

[Old Style]

It’s really chaps my hide that after adding nothing to the offense last year it looks like a strong possibility they wont be able to add an impact offensive player this year. There are no receivers or top tackles likely available in free agency and a greater than 50% chance they draft defense early. As bad a job that Poles did with offense this offseason and people are maybe rightfully saying D Line is the number one need.

 

I guess another reason to consider a trade down to get more immediate assets. One of the talking heads on Twitter, might have been a Sun times guy was saying the Bears would have to have a roughly 80% hit rate on moves this offseason to contend for the playoffs in 2023. That may ultimately be right. We’ll see

That seems awfully high. The Bears were close to at least 4-5 more wins this season. A few breaks go their way and they’d be “in the hunt” right now. The Vikings on the other hand have had a lot break their way. No team in NFL history has more one score wins in a season. A regression to the mean should be expected next season. The Packers are on the way down and while they’re trending in the right direction the Lions still don’t have a QB. The division should be very winnable in 2023.

[David]

It’s really chaps my hide that after adding nothing to the offense last year it looks like a strong possibility they wont be able to add an impact offensive player this year. There are no receivers or top tackles likely available in free agency and a greater than 50% chance they draft defense early. As bad a job that Poles did with offense this offseason and people are maybe rightfully saying D Line is the number one need.

 

I guess another reason to consider a trade down to get more immediate assets. One of the talking heads on Twitter, might have been a Sun times guy was saying the Bears would have to have a roughly 80% hit rate on moves this offseason to contend for the playoffs in 2023. That may ultimately be right. We’ll see

 

"One of the talking heads?" Do you mean dumb ass Dan Wiederer?

[BigbadB]

The Packers are on the way down and while they’re trending in the right direction the Lions still don’t have a QB. The division should be very winnable in 2023.

 

Goff isn't a top 5 guy, but I wouldn't say they don't have a QB. He seems to be getting comfortable in their system. He had 6 interceptions in his first 7 games, but only once since then and 15 TD throws. Once Jameson Williams is up to speed with their system, they may have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league next year.

[gflore34]

It’s really chaps my hide that after adding nothing to the offense last year it looks like a strong possibility they wont be able to add an impact offensive player this year. There are no receivers or top tackles likely available in free agency and a greater than 50% chance they draft defense early. As bad a job that Poles did with offense this offseason and people are maybe rightfully saying D Line is the number one need.

 

It absolutely sucks however, I think there's enough to repair the OL via FA, WR probably looking at the draft. I'm done with the defense first mentality, despite once again, with his first pick, drafting defense, I don't think Poles' MO is going to be win with defense and running the ball. It's certainly not the MO from where he came, which I believe played a big role in his approach to building a roster. Just so happens the best player in this draft is on defense and the Bears are in position to draft him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

How many starters do you guys think we need at minimum?

 

Seems like an entire DL, which is such a massive task. Sanborn works for me, but we could probably stand to upgrade from Morrow in the LB unit. Our corners might be good behind a suitable DL. I maybe wouldn't prioritize safety but if a clear upgrade is available then I'm sure we'll take a swing.

 

Probably RB, WR, and 3 OL, needed for the offense.

 

Basically need 10 new starters?

[raw]

How many starters do you guys think we need at minimum?

 

Seems like an entire DL, which is such a massive task. Sanborn works for me, but we could probably stand to upgrade from Morrow in the LB unit. Our corners might be good behind a suitable DL. I maybe wouldn't prioritize safety but if a clear upgrade is available then I'm sure we'll take a swing.

 

Probably RB, WR, and 3 OL, needed for the offense.

 

Basically need 10 new starters?

 

QB- starter and backup back

RB- Herbert can move to starter, but could use another guy here

WR- Mooney, Claypool, could use a 3rd here

FB- Blasingame is a FA, but position is mostly pointless

TE- Kmet, but need backups

LT- Jones

LG- Whitehair, I think he'll be cut so need a starter here

C- Patrick under contract, could cut and get a starter here

RG- Jenkins, should be starter, need backup

RT- need a starter, may have a backup between Leatherwood/Borom

 

DE- have depth, need at least 1 very good starter, 2 possible

DT- Jones is under contract, but need 1 very good starter, 2 possible, plus depth

LB- Sanborn a starter, everyone else that has played is a FA, could use 2 guys here

CB- could get away with Vildor/Jaylon Jones opposite Johnson and Gordon, could use an upgrade

S- If Jackson isn't cut, just need depth here.

 

So, for sure need starters at: DE, DT, LB, RT, LG, WR

Could use starters or upgrades at: CB, C, RB

Need depth at: literally all the positions, even QB needs a practice squad guy that's not proven terrible like Peterman.

 

To reach competency levels, you need a legit 6 starters that are above replacement level. To actually be good, you probably need more, plus great improvements from Fields, Braxton, Jenkins, Gordon, Brisker, Claypool, depth pieces.

[WrigleyField 22]

How many starters do you guys think we need at minimum?

 

Seems like an entire DL, which is such a massive task. Sanborn works for me, but we could probably stand to upgrade from Morrow in the LB unit. Our corners might be good behind a suitable DL. I maybe wouldn't prioritize safety but if a clear upgrade is available then I'm sure we'll take a swing.

 

Probably RB, WR, and 3 OL, needed for the offense.

 

Basically need 10 new starters?

I think from a "big investment" perspective it's about 7 or 8 for me still.

 

2-3 FA DL

2 (maybe 3rd) FA OL

A LB or CB in FA

A RB2 or WR3 in FA

Your #1 pick which could go towards a variety of needs, but probably another DL is ideal.

 

The mid rounds and minor FA add another 4-5 rotation players and lower value starters.

 

Strictly from the week 1 starters + Claypool + Sanborn, I'd say, yea 10-11 new starters in week 1 next year, and then a handful of new rotation guys.

[jersey cubs fan]

It all depends on the quality of upgrade. One stud OL can help the rest of the group. Similarly, a better skills group could offset the need for more OL, but if you really solve the line, it will help the existing skill guys. I would put the number at 3 between OL and WR.

 

2 new DL could go a long way to helping the rest of the bunch.

 

But as raw noted, you need starters by default because of guys being on one year deals. Maybe not upgrades, but new blood.

 

And one thing they also need to do is start drafting QBs regularly, so you aren’t going out and spending big on garbage backups.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building.

 

That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

[raw]

I think this would be my approach to the offseason.

 

Spend big (12-15M AAV+) at DT and 1 OL spot (LG or RT)

Spend moderately (8-12M AAV) at 1 LB spot, 2nd DT spot, 1 DE spot, 1 wildcard spot***

Draft early (top 75 picks) at 1 OL spot (LG, RT), WR, 2nd DE spot

Bargain shop depth at LB, CB, another OL, TE, WR, RB

 

*** for that wildcard spot, I'd look for the most dynamic offensive weapon I can find. I'm thinking Mecole Hardman or Parris Campbell, guys who can flat out fly but need some development in route running if can be had for a cheap 1-year/8M deal or so. I'm thinking if not at WR, then get a dynamic RB. Saquan and Jacobs would be pipe dreams. Tony Pollard probably a pipe dream as well, but he'd be fun. But I'm looking to get the fastest player I can to play in the backfield with Fields. Even if you put Velus back there at times like Deebo, that would work, but still need an actual RB. I don't really like the thought of a 2nd TE, because the Shanahan offense doesn't really throw to 2 TEs much, but if you have to add a Gesicki or Evan Engram as essentially a slot WR, that would work too.

[Old Style]

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building.

 

That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

To me I think C is a position where you could draft a quality player in the 3or 4th round that could start right away assuming you have some talent around them.