Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building.

 

That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

To me I think C is a position where you could draft a quality player in the 3or 4th round that could start right away assuming you have some talent around them.

I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me.

[Old Style]

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building.

 

That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

To me I think C is a position where you could draft a quality player in the 3or 4th round that could start right away assuming you have some talent around them.

I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me.

Well if a solid FA target comes available at a fair price I wouldn't wait on the draft to hope to get lucky. That wasn't my intention. Not sure what the cap hit is for Patrick but I'm not opposed to penciling him in at C since that is what he was signed for but really never played there this season. Whitehair needs to go because he gets paid too much for his production and Mustipher needs to go because he sucks donkey balls.

[WrigleyField 22]

The cap hits of Patrick or Whitehair are pretty meaningless to me at this point for the Bears. They'll be in a good cap position moving forward no matter what.

[WrigleyField 22]

This is how I would itemize the roster of 22 starters and 4 key rotation pieces. I've assigned partial credit for guys who are tossups or longshots.

 

Column 3 is where there is a certain or possible in house replacement who wasn't a week 1 starter (Claypool at WR-X, Patrick at C, Sanborn at Mike, Jones at NB)

 

Pos	  Wk1 22 Ply	 Back 	 Other 	 New  
QB   	Fields    	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
RB   	Montgomery	 0.25 	 0.75 	 0.00 
WR-X 	St Brown  	 0.00 	 1.00 	 0.00 
WR-Y 	Mooney    	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
WR-S 	Pettis    	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
TE   	Kmet      	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
LT   	Jones     	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
LG   	Whitehair 	 0.50 	 0.00 	 0.50 
C    	Mustipher 	 0.00 	 0.25 	 0.75 
RG   	Jenkins   	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
RT   	Borom     	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
DT   	Jones     	 0.50 	 0.00 	 0.50 
DE   	Muhammad  	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
DE   	Quinn     	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
NT   	Blackson  	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
MK   	Morrow    	 0.25 	 0.75 	 0.00 
WL   	Smith     	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
CB   	Johnson   	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
CB   	Gordon    	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
NB   	Vildor    	 0.25 	 0.25 	 0.50 
SS   	Brisker   	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
FS   	Jackson   	 1.00 	 0.00 	 0.00 
DL   	Robinson  	 0.50 	 0.00 	 0.50 
DL   	Gibson    	 0.50 	 0.00 	 0.50 
RB2  	Herbert   	 0.25 	 0.00 	 0.75 
WR/TE	Griffin   	 0.00 	 0.00 	 1.00 
     26 Total  	 12.0 	 3.00 	 11.0 

 

So basically.

 

1 New WR and 1 New WR/TE weapon (maybe slight chance Velus is internal fill-in for the latter)

1 New RB with a outside chance of a resigned Montgomery

2 New OL with a possibility of 3

3 new DL, maybe all 4 new, but with a few bodies back at least as rotation guys in that case

1 new LB with either Sanborn or a resigned Morrow back at one spot

1 New CB likely, but some chance they fill internally (lots of young bodies there)

 

Blended that's 15 spots returning as starters or filled internally and 11 new spots to fill. That's a majority of your expected O/D snaps (before injury). And then I'd presume you're probably 50/50 in resigning verse new FA and draft picks that fill out the rest of the roster spots 27-50 (then 3 specialists who should all be back)

[minnesotacubsfan]

I don't think one stud OL raise the whole units floor that much. If you went and get the best FA OT, but Mustipher is still your center, it's a pretty low ceiling unit. I'm still a whole-hearted subscriber to the weakest link theory of OL building.

 

That said, resources aren't the issue. They can go get a top flight OT and still also replace Mustipher at C to significantly raise the weakest link and floor of that unit. Then it comes down to maybe one spot at LG where you're borderline on making an upgrade and the opposite tackle spot which is presumably Jones, but making sure your depth/competition are enough to provide some flexibility and redundancy in options.

To me I think C is a position where you could draft a quality player in the 3or 4th round that could start right away assuming you have some talent around them.

I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me.

 

 

risk? what risk? you're looking at replacing Sam Mustispher for crying out loud! I keep saying his name because 1) I'm a total homer but 2) - and more importantly, he's the best coming out, but Schmitz from Minnesota would be a huge upgrade

[WrigleyField 22]

To me I think C is a position where you could draft a quality player in the 3or 4th round that could start right away assuming you have some talent around them.

I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me.

 

 

risk? what risk? you're looking at replacing Sam Mustispher for crying out loud! I keep saying his name because 1) I'm a total homer but 2) - and more importantly, he's the best coming out, but Schmitz from Minnesota would be a huge upgrade

If the only bar is improving Mustipher that's still a wide and left for "bad OL"

 

Mid round rookies are never that safe of propositions.

 

Fields getting his pocket collapsed because Poles tried to get cute when he had all the money he could possibly need is something I want zero to do with.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I would not risk that units success on the availability of the right OC prospect just sitting there in the mid rounds. That would be more of a "wait and see on Whitehair and LG" proposition than a "Wait and see on Mustipher/Patrick at C" proposition to me.

 

 

risk? what risk? you're looking at replacing Sam Mustispher for crying out loud! I keep saying his name because 1) I'm a total homer but 2) - and more importantly, he's the best coming out, but Schmitz from Minnesota would be a huge upgrade

If the only bar is improving Mustipher that's still a wide and left for "bad OL"

 

Mid round rookies are never that safe of propositions.

 

Fields getting his pocket collapsed because Poles tried to get cute when he had all the money he could possibly need is something I want zero to do with.

 

 

nearly all C's are mid-round rookies, and again, the talent you are trying to upgrade from is Sam Mustipher. hell, Schmitz may even go late 1st, early 2nd and if that's the case the Bears would need to have a trade out of their first to get him (getting him w/a top 2nd round instead), but if he did fall to the late 2nd, I'd draft him.

 

what other FA center is available this offseason?

[WrigleyField 22]

In Front Office turnover rumors:

 

(the Big Ten fans in the comments seem ready to pack his bags, for whatever that is worth lol)

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warren

 

Has plenty of NFL exec experience (Rams, Lions, Vikings), most recently as Vikings COO from 2015-19 before becoming Big Ten commissioner.

 

Wonder if he was involved at all with the Vikings Stadium deal before becoming COO.

Edited December 29, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[Bertz]

The Bears have infinity dollars to spend and after tags/extensions there's likely to be zero true superstars available in FA this offseason. Poles should fill literally every hole on the roster with a starting caliber player via FA. Every single one.

[raw]

 

 

risk? what risk? you're looking at replacing Sam Mustispher for crying out loud! I keep saying his name because 1) I'm a total homer but 2) - and more importantly, he's the best coming out, but Schmitz from Minnesota would be a huge upgrade

If the only bar is improving Mustipher that's still a wide and left for "bad OL"

 

Mid round rookies are never that safe of propositions.

 

Fields getting his pocket collapsed because Poles tried to get cute when he had all the money he could possibly need is something I want zero to do with.

 

 

nearly all C's are mid-round rookies, and again, the talent you are trying to upgrade from is Sam Mustipher. hell, Schmitz may even go late 1st, early 2nd and if that's the case the Bears would need to have a trade out of their first to get him (getting him w/a top 2nd round instead), but if he did fall to the late 2nd, I'd draft him.

 

what other FA center is available this offseason?

 

Yeah, Schmitz seems like he'll go anywhere from mid 2nd to mid 3rd. He's interesting because he doesn't seem very athletic. Not a guy that's going to wow at the combine, but he plays way more athletically than he looks. Has a lot of plays where he makes fantastic reach blocks, which are key for this offense. Not sure how good he would handle elite interior pass rushers or DEs on stunts, but run blocking looks like a clear fit.

 

But overall, I'm not in love with the guy as a prospect. Definitely not big on handing him the job as a rookie, and where he will get drafted you basically would have to hand him the job to make the pick worth it. But if the Bears do sign a really good LG and a starting RT, then he becomes a much more viable option.

[bukie]

With the end of the Derek Carr era in Vegas, I'm a little intrigued in them as a Bears trade-down partner for the next draft, particularly if the Bears get the #1 pick. Particularly if they can trade down from 1 to wherever the Raiders end up (7-ish), get a couple additional picks and maybe try to fold in a Davante Adams that wouldn't be particularly interested in a rebuild in Vegas?

 

Just spitballing, really. The Bears need to add skill to their skill positions, and I don't think the draft is the best way to get better there fast enough to make a difference for Fields.

[raw]

With the end of the Derek Carr era in Vegas, I'm a little intrigued in them as a Bears trade-down partner for the next draft, particularly if the Bears get the #1 pick. Particularly if they can trade down from 1 to wherever the Raiders end up (7-ish), get a couple additional picks and maybe try to fold in a Davante Adams that wouldn't be particularly interested in a rebuild in Vegas?

 

Just spitballing, really. The Bears need to add skill to their skill positions, and I don't think the draft is the best way to get better there fast enough to make a difference for Fields.

 

I don't want Adams. I know he's still really good. But how many more years does he have at an elite level? Maybe 2-3? I'd much rather have a younger WR who can ascend to that level (Higgins, Jeudy). I know this is blasphemous to say, but the Bears don't HAVE to make a fast difference for Fields. Get some guys that can block long enough to get the ball to guys he does have. We've been seen Claypool and we've barely seen him and Mooney together. We all agree both are decent players, while not #1s, they could always upgrade on the other guys getting a ton of reps (St. Brown, Pettis, Pringle) with cheaper FAs and/or a couple draft picks. If they still need a #1 WR next year, they can still draft a guy 2024.

 

It would suck to wait that long, but that's kind of the bed they made with the Claypool trade. Obviously, you can jump start things if you have the ability, but this isn't a team that's making a Bengals or Eagles type leap next year. I think everyone sees what they did and think "why not us?" but they both had a history of successful draft picks leading up to their breakout years. And in the Eagles case, they were already a pretty decent team before this year.

[bukie]

With the end of the Derek Carr era in Vegas, I'm a little intrigued in them as a Bears trade-down partner for the next draft, particularly if the Bears get the #1 pick. Particularly if they can trade down from 1 to wherever the Raiders end up (7-ish), get a couple additional picks and maybe try to fold in a Davante Adams that wouldn't be particularly interested in a rebuild in Vegas?

 

Just spitballing, really. The Bears need to add skill to their skill positions, and I don't think the draft is the best way to get better there fast enough to make a difference for Fields.

 

I don't want Adams. I know he's still really good. But how many more years does he have at an elite level? Maybe 2-3? I'd much rather have a younger WR who can ascend to that level (Higgins, Jeudy). I know this is blasphemous to say, but the Bears don't HAVE to make a fast difference for Fields. Get some guys that can block long enough to get the ball to guys he does have. We've been seen Claypool and we've barely seen him and Mooney together. We all agree both are decent players, while not #1s, they could always upgrade on the other guys getting a ton of reps (St. Brown, Pettis, Pringle) with cheaper FAs and/or a couple draft picks. If they still need a #1 WR next year, they can still draft a guy 2024.

 

It would suck to wait that long, but that's kind of the bed they made with the Claypool trade. Obviously, you can jump start things if you have the ability, but this isn't a team that's making a Bengals or Eagles type leap next year. I think everyone sees what they did and think "why not us?" but they both had a history of successful draft picks leading up to their breakout years. And in the Eagles case, they were already a pretty decent team before this year.

 

I know Adams is on the wrong side of 30 and might only have 2-3 more years of elite #1 level play, but the Bears are sorely lacking in that kind of player right now. Get that player while you have the buckets of cap space to use on him, draft or pick up a younger option you hope can develop into that kind of WR, and then when Adams is no longer that guy you have one in place, whether that's Claypool, a draft pick, or another outside option.

 

I don't like the idea of trying to spend 3+ years developing into a contender in the modern NFL, with salary caps and non-guaranteed contracts designed for quick turnarounds, especially with Fields already developing into an elite level player and taking too much of the offensive burden himself already. Use the draft capital and salary capital you have this offseason, get 3-4 OL and 3-4 DL, use your existing DB corps, get an elite level skill player that is elite now, and roll into next year with a realistic shot at contending.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think getting that Adams type receiver is the only path to them competeting around Fields in the near term, either. They can be a division winner and serious contender without it.

 

Even if you were recognizing it might be a short term play there may be other short term play WRs who may become available at a much lesser cost than Adams. Don't know for sure, but I'm guessing his price isn't significantly different than a year ago.

 

So yea, while the Bears shouldn't have some 3 year building window, I don't think they can focus on any one method and I think it's fair to question whether Adams would be worth the cost to acquire.

 

Probably all moot. I don't think he's going anywhere.

[raw]

Yeah, not talking 3 year rebuild. The tear down was this year. The build up will be 2023. 2024 should be geared toward being a serious championship contender (all assuming Fields continues to take steps forward)

 

I know they have a ton of money and almost the highest possible draft picks, but they are starting from almost nothing. They should be competitive and dare I say, potentially a playoff team as they could win a division that may not be that great (Packers descending, Vikings lot of luck this year, Lions being the Lions). But IDK how much they could do that would make me think they are going to be capable of winning multiple playoff games on paper in September.

 

Basically, the Bears are the 2021 Jaguars right now. They have the QB but not much else. Whereas the Jags were lacking in coaching last year, the Bears are lacking overall talent. But the Jags also had a bunch of money (I think) and top draft picks. They overpaid like the Bears will likely have to do, and they are on the verge of winning a bad division and peaking at the right time. That's my expectations for the Bears next year, moreso than a Bengals type leap, but I guess that is in the realm of possibilities as well.

[Soul]

This time next year the Bears need to at least be a bubble team or it’s a catastrophe. There’s been so much put into the tank basket. That’s fine but it can’t be a long trajectory up. It has to turn around fast.

 

Also, let’s face it Poles was gifted a solid QB. Few GMs get that coming in.

[UK]

This time next year the Bears need to at least be a bubble team or it’s a catastrophe. There’s been so much put into the tank basket. That’s fine but it can’t be a long trajectory up. It has to turn around fast.

 

Also, let’s face it Poles was gifted a solid QB. Few GMs get that coming in.

 

It's odd that Fields might save the wrong GM (Please don't think that means I think they should have kept Pace).

 

It's a minimum of a 7 game improvement between now and in 24'. We will have known how he drafts and signs FA by then and no need to prolong the inevitable if he sucks.

[scarey]

What are the chances the Colts move up to the Bears spot in the draft for a QB and use Michael Pittman as part of the compensation? They only have one more year of control on him and desperately need a young QB to build around. Plus, the Bears' connections with the Colts makes that discussion easier to start.

 

I would still have a really hard time passing on Anderson and Carter, but a WR corp of Pittman, Claypool, and Mooney makes that a little easier to swallow.

[UK]

What are the chances the Colts move up to the Bears spot in the draft for a QB and use Michael Pittman as part of the compensation? They only have one more year of control on him and desperately need a young QB to build around. Plus, the Bears' connections with the Colts makes that discussion easier to start.

 

I would still have a really hard time passing on Anderson and Carter, but a WR corp of Pittman, Claypool, and Mooney makes that a little easier to swallow.

 

I keep going back and forth on whether to draft Andersen and increase the odds of having that one defensive player to build around. He could be that K Mack or Donald type player on defense who can take over which is hard to find defensively.

[mul21]

What are the chances the Colts move up to the Bears spot in the draft for a QB and use Michael Pittman as part of the compensation? They only have one more year of control on him and desperately need a young QB to build around. Plus, the Bears' connections with the Colts makes that discussion easier to start.

 

I would still have a really hard time passing on Anderson and Carter, but a WR corp of Pittman, Claypool, and Mooney makes that a little easier to swallow.

 

I keep going back and forth on whether to draft Andersen and increase the odds of having that one defensive player to build around. He could be that K Mack or Donald type player on defense who can take over which is hard to find defensively.

 

I feel like have a bunch of good pass rushers is a reasonable solution and this team has so many holes that adding an extra first/early second round pick this year and next would be a much greater benefit than one great DE, even if that is a nice thing to have. If there weren't so many holes and a shortage of FAs to sign at some of the key spots I might feel differently, but it really is starting to feel like a lot of the impact is going to have to come through the draft.

[BigbadB]

What are the chances the Colts move up to the Bears spot in the draft for a QB and use Michael Pittman as part of the compensation? They only have one more year of control on him and desperately need a young QB to build around. Plus, the Bears' connections with the Colts makes that discussion easier to start.

 

I would still have a really hard time passing on Anderson and Carter, but a WR corp of Pittman, Claypool, and Mooney makes that a little easier to swallow.

 

I keep going back and forth on whether to draft Andersen and increase the odds of having that one defensive player to build around. He could be that K Mack or Donald type player on defense who can take over which is hard to find defensively.

 

I feel like have a bunch of good pass rushers is a reasonable solution and this team has so many holes that adding an extra first/early second round pick this year and next would be a much greater benefit than one great DE, even if that is a nice thing to have. If there weren't so many holes and a shortage of FAs to sign at some of the key spots I might feel differently, but it really is starting to feel like a lot of the impact is going to have to come through the draft.

 

Yeah. How much better is Anderson than Myles Murphy and the draft picks accumulated from trading down a small handful of spots?

[raw]

 

I keep going back and forth on whether to draft Andersen and increase the odds of having that one defensive player to build around. He could be that K Mack or Donald type player on defense who can take over which is hard to find defensively.

 

I feel like have a bunch of good pass rushers is a reasonable solution and this team has so many holes that adding an extra first/early second round pick this year and next would be a much greater benefit than one great DE, even if that is a nice thing to have. If there weren't so many holes and a shortage of FAs to sign at some of the key spots I might feel differently, but it really is starting to feel like a lot of the impact is going to have to come through the draft.

 

Yeah. How much better is Anderson than Myles Murphy and the draft picks accumulated from trading down a small handful of spots?

 

Not a huge Murphy fan, especially in the top 5. But a 275lb freak athlete in the 4-3 defense may be a better fit than a 243lb freak. There's also quite a few other DEs I really like in this draft and as many as 7-8 may go in the top 50 picks.

 

But I tend to lean toward having a 3rd pick in top 60 this year + potentially an extra 1st next year > Anderson and pick 56 or whatever from Baltimore.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I underastand that a generational DL might be the best pick to make at the top of the draft.

 

And I understand that we kinda like some of our young linemen so we might not want to get more than 1 or 2.

 

And I understand that the WR market sucks so there might not be anything to get.

 

But if all those combine to leave us with a mediocre offense next season, I'm gonna be salty.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[WrigleyField 22]

I underastand that a generational DL might be the best pick to make at the top of the draft.

 

And I understand that we kinda like some of our young linemen so we might not want to get more than 1 or 2.

 

And I understand that the WR market sucks so there might not be anything to get.

 

But if all those combine to leave us with a mediocer offense next season, I'm gonna be the salty.

The floor to like a back end top 10 defense is a lot more attainable with Fields. If they can clean up the line, I think they can *get by* elsewhere.

 

Of course I want a Bills/Chiefs top 3 offense, but I don't think mediocre to good is dependent on that first pick, luckily

[minnesotacubsfan]

If the only bar is improving Mustipher that's still a wide and left for "bad OL"

 

Mid round rookies are never that safe of propositions.

 

Fields getting his pocket collapsed because Poles tried to get cute when he had all the money he could possibly need is something I want zero to do with.

 

 

nearly all C's are mid-round rookies, and again, the talent you are trying to upgrade from is Sam Mustipher. hell, Schmitz may even go late 1st, early 2nd and if that's the case the Bears would need to have a trade out of their first to get him (getting him w/a top 2nd round instead), but if he did fall to the late 2nd, I'd draft him.

 

what other FA center is available this offseason?

 

Yeah, Schmitz seems like he'll go anywhere from mid 2nd to mid 3rd. He's interesting because he doesn't seem very athletic. Not a guy that's going to wow at the combine, but he plays way more athletically than he looks. Has a lot of plays where he makes fantastic reach blocks, which are key for this offense. Not sure how good he would handle elite interior pass rushers or DEs on stunts, but run blocking looks like a clear fit.

 

But overall, I'm not in love with the guy as a prospect. Definitely not big on handing him the job as a rookie, and where he will get drafted you basically would have to hand him the job to make the pick worth it. But if the Bears do sign a really good LG and a starting RT, then he becomes a much more viable option.

 

I'm coming back to this because I've been busy the last few days and haven't had a chance to reply, but Schmitz is more than capable w/ pass rushers and stunts. He's off the charts on run blocking and pretty damn good on passing downs

 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/JohnMichael-Schmitz-OL-Minnesota

 

even if Patrick somehow held on the C position, Schmitz has the size, talent, and athleticism to play G. He'd be a better bet than Mustipher and probably most of the top G's in the draft

 

eta: plus, he's from the south suburbs and very likely a Bears fan. HOMER UP