Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[UMFan83]

No one has ever confused me for happy go lucky. But I can't imagine every step I take in life thinking to myself "welp, one step closer to the grave." It sucks to have a FA decide to play for another team but [expletive] a people. We were driven into the ground by bad ownership and a bad GM for a long time. We've shown a willingness to spend on big FAs. We're in a better place and will be much better before long but Theo can't just flip the switch to on and fix the franchise.

 

The thing I hate is that the Cubs have been so damn boring and awful to watch the last 4 years, it would be nice to have something to follow at the major league level. I guess I can hope Rizzo and Castro bounce back and maybe Baez and/or Bryant by the end of the year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I really, really wanted Tanaka, but we can get Scherzer, Masterson, or Bailey, trade for an OFer, while still trading Shark, and be a playoff possibility in 2015.

 

Oh yeah, we're *totally* going to pay the market price for whatever 30-year-olds don't get contract extensions.

 

And you'd need two of those to have more than a "well, it's not impossible" chance.

[Guest]

While some people put too much stock in prospects and assume success at too high a rate, I think just as many here overstate the likelihood of busting.

 

There are too many really good to great prospects/young players right now for all of them to bust or disappoint. Some of them are going to be really, really good players. It would take awful luck for that not to be the case.

 

The problem is that our plan now is all-in on hoping that most of them at least hit the upper quarter of their ceilings. As promising as those guys are, it's not a sure thing, and if it doesn't work out, then where are we?

 

 

We're leaning on them more than anyone would like, but if we even get 4, say, 3-4 win players out of Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant, Soler, and Almora (not to mention the others that can pop their heads in like Vogelbach, Candelario, etc.), then we're in really good shape.

 

You'd hope that Rizzo and Castro are already 2 of those guys. If 2013 Castro remains a thing going forward, that would REALLY suck. It's a possibility I'm not willing to entertain quite yet.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes, top farm systems tend to happen when you have three straight top 10 picks, sign the second most expensive international prospect free agent of the time and trade away all your good players for prospects.

 

The Cardinals and Red Sox deserve credit for having successful farm systems with none/one top 10 pick (while winning big league games).

 

Seriously, why don't people get this? It is not an accomplishment to build up the farm system when your only mandate is to build up the farm system. If all you do is lose, trim major league payroll and sell off veterans, it is inevitable that your farm system will go up. That isn't an accomplishment.

 

An accomplishment is contending while at the same time maintaining a strong farm.

[SouthSideRyan]

I really, really wanted Tanaka, but we can get Scherzer, Masterson, or Bailey, trade for an OFer, while still trading Shark, and be a playoff possibility in 2015.

 

Even with Tanaka, 2014 was not going to happen anyway, in all likelihood. It is what it is, but I'll take another top 5 pick, trade Shark, Veras, Schierholtz at the deadline, and add bigtime next offseason. Playoffs are a realistic possibility in 2015, in my opinion.

 

Playoffs are a realistic possibility with Travis Wood as our number 1 and the hopes that other teams don't like spending actual money to extend their own players?

[bukie]

While some people put too much stock in prospects and assume success at too high a rate, I think just as many here overstate the likelihood of busting.

 

There are too many really good to great prospects/young players right now for all of them to bust or disappoint. Some of them are going to be really, really good players. It would take awful luck for that not to be the case.

 

The problem is that our plan now is all-in on hoping that most of them at least hit the upper quarter of their ceilings. As promising as those guys are, it's not a sure thing, and if it doesn't work out, then where are we?

 

 

We're leaning on them more than anyone would like, but if we even get 4, say, 3-4 win players out of Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant, Soler, and Almora (not to mention the others that can pop their heads in like Vogelbach, Candelario, etc.), then we're in really good shape.

 

You'd hope that Rizzo and Castro are already 2 of those guys. If 2013 Castro remains a thing going forward, that would REALLY suck. It's a possibility I'm not willing to entertain quite yet.

 

Plus, having tons of well-regarded minor league assets has value beyond hoping they all pan out for the team at the major league level.

[Guest]

No one has ever confused me for happy go lucky. But I can't imagine every step I take in life thinking to myself "welp, one step closer to the grave." It sucks to have a FA decide to play for another team but [expletive] a people. We were driven into the ground by bad ownership and a bad GM for a long time. We've shown a willingness to spend on big FAs. We're in a better place and will be much better before long but Theo can't just flip the switch to on and fix the franchise.

 

The thing I hate is that the Cubs have been so damn boring and awful to watch the last 4 years, it would be nice to have something to follow at the major league level. I guess I can hope Rizzo and Castro bounce back and maybe Baez and/or Bryant by the end of the year.

 

Aside from the fact that I just like watching baseball, I'm pretty excited (to varying degrees) about seeing all of those things.

 

The Javy call up is going to be awesome. He is going to pull some massive swag [expletive] like a first pitch HR too.

[sneakypower]

The Cardinals and Red Sox deserve credit for having successful farm systems with none/one top 10 pick (while winning big league games).

it may be worth noting then, that the Cards win lots of games at the big league level almost entirely with players pulled out of their farm system, or from trades using players from their farm system

[Guest]

Yes, top farm systems tend to happen when you have three straight top 10 picks, sign the second most expensive international prospect free agent of the time and trade away all your good players for prospects.

 

The Cardinals and Red Sox deserve credit for having successful farm systems with none/one top 10 pick (while winning big league games).

 

Seriously, why don't people get this? It is not an accomplishment to build up the farm system when your only mandate is to build up the farm system. If all you do is lose, trim major league payroll and sell off veterans, it is inevitable that your farm system will go up. That isn't an accomplishment.

 

An accomplishment is contending while at the same time maintaining a strong farm.

 

It's not, but I'm willing to give them credit on not Ryan Harveying any picks YET.

[Guest]

While some people put too much stock in prospects and assume success at too high a rate, I think just as many here overstate the likelihood of busting.

 

There are too many really good to great prospects/young players right now for all of them to bust or disappoint. Some of them are going to be really, really good players. It would take awful luck for that not to be the case.

 

The problem is that our plan now is all-in on hoping that most of them at least hit the upper quarter of their ceilings. As promising as those guys are, it's not a sure thing, and if it doesn't work out, then where are we?

 

 

We're leaning on them more than anyone would like, but if we even get 4, say, 3-4 win players out of Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant, Soler, and Almora (not to mention the others that can pop their heads in like Vogelbach, Candelario, etc.), then we're in really good shape.

 

You'd hope that Rizzo and Castro are already 2 of those guys. If 2013 Castro remains a thing going forward, that would REALLY suck. It's a possibility I'm not willing to entertain quite yet.

 

Plus, having tons of well-regarded minor league assets has value beyond hoping they all pan out for the team at the major league level.

 

 

That too.

[gscool89]

The Cubs have been awful for decades, why has it taken until now for them to finally see some results from their minor league system?

[SouthSideRyan]

The Cardinals and Red Sox deserve credit for having successful farm systems with none/one top 10 pick (while winning big league games).

it may be worth noting then, that the Cards win lots of games at the big league level almost entirely with players pulled out of their farm system, or from trades using players from their farm system

 

Did anybody say "don't build up your farm system?"

[Guest]

This sucks. A lot.

 

Bad News:

 

- The front office failed this offseason. When you pin the offseason on signing that one guy, you have to get him. The opportunity cost wasn't massive, but they didn't have a ton of margin for error anyways

 

- Even though the Yankees in real terms are paying him Kershaw+ money, in cash paid to Tanaka it was similar or even less than the offer the Cubs supposedly had. Hopefully that happening on this scale will be instructive to Theo/Jed for future targets

 

- This kinda proves that the Luxury tax isn't the mechanism that MLB was hoping for at curbing spending. A few teams have revenues that outstrip the penalties by so much that it's not an effective barrier.

 

Good News:

 

- All of the implications about future spending that signing Tanaka would mean still hold true by not quite being allowed to pay Tanaka that money. So while I understand the frustration and the skepticism about future free agents, I think there's a very real if not probable chance that the scale for free agents worth pursuing is going to change starting next offseason.

 

- Even without Tanaka, I think this team is better than the impression that most people have. It's not immune from negative variance and winning 90-95 games again, but I expect a larger jump in win count from '13 to '14 than '12 to '13.

 

Going Forward:

 

- They should definitely be interested in the remaining FA SP, but not desperate for them. Even if they signed Garza and Ubaldo, they aren't a likely playoff contender, so redeeming 2014 shouldn't drive the decision making. Garza/Ubaldo/Santana should be evaluated almost in the same bucket as potential trade targets this season and next year's FA class. By passing you put more pressure on getting one of those others, but passing is not really indicative of anything either.

 

- I'd strongly consider seeing what it would take to rent a guy like Grant Balfour. With no SPs added and the latest news on Vizcaino being less than inspiring, there aren't any big logjams created by adding him. In doing so you really have a very good pen locked down, and he can easily be flipped to essentially buy some assets at the deadline if you prefer. Or you can keep him as a measure of minimizing downside in total wins, especially if Strop and/or Parker regress.

 

- I'd also strongly consider what creative accounting that missing out on Tanaka could afford you. For example, if Samardzija wants 5/100 and you only think he's worth 5/75, then applying the 25 million earmarked for Tanaka to cover that difference may be worth it. At this point the certainty of locking down Shark may be worth more than adding some middling improvements like a Balfour or a Maholm/Baker starter. The same thing applies on a smaller scale if you want to initiate extension talks with Castillo or Wood, or even one of Baez/Bryant if they go nuts this year.

 

Losing Tanaka hurts, but it's also not the "give up on 2015" death knell that some of the reaction has implied. There's a lot of financial flexibility(and maybe much more coming via a TV deal), a lot of potential options where the Cubs need the most help, plus another year of prospect maturation leading to MLB production and/or surplus to deal from.

[Guest]

I really, really wanted Tanaka, but we can get Scherzer, Masterson, or Bailey, trade for an OFer, while still trading Shark, and be a playoff possibility in 2015.

 

Even with Tanaka, 2014 was not going to happen anyway, in all likelihood. It is what it is, but I'll take another top 5 pick, trade Shark, Veras, Schierholtz at the deadline, and add bigtime next offseason. Playoffs are a realistic possibility in 2015, in my opinion.

 

You trade Samardzija and actually sign one of those FA pitchers and you're right back where you started in terms of pitching.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Cubs have been awful for decades, why has it taken until now for them to finally see some results from their minor league system?

 

Because you weren't paying attention?

[davell]

I really, really wanted Tanaka, but we can get Scherzer, Masterson, or Bailey, trade for an OFer, while still trading Shark, and be a playoff possibility in 2015.

 

Even with Tanaka, 2014 was not going to happen anyway, in all likelihood. It is what it is, but I'll take another top 5 pick, trade Shark, Veras, Schierholtz at the deadline, and add bigtime next offseason. Playoffs are a realistic possibility in 2015, in my opinion.

 

Playoffs are a realistic possibility with Travis Wood as our number 1 and the hopes that other teams don't like spending actual money to extend their own players?

 

Scherzer, Bailey, and Masterson are definitely hitting FA. If Castro and Rizzo look solid and Javy and KB look as if they can be penciled in as 2015 starters, I see no reason Theo wouldn't sign 29-30 year old FA at that point.

[Guest]

 

- I'd strongly consider seeing what it would take to rent a guy like Grant Balfour. With no SPs added and the latest news on Vizcaino being less than inspiring, there aren't any big logjams created by adding him. In doing so you really have a very good pen locked down, and he can easily be flipped to essentially buy some assets at the deadline if you prefer. Or you can keep him as a measure of minimizing downside in total wins, especially if Strop and/or Parker regress.

 

You caught that too? Definite downer going from hearing he's flashing electric stuff at instructs to "He's still rehabbing and we're being cautious with him" or whatever the hell it exactly was that McLeod said.

[gscool89]

The Cubs have been awful for decades, why has it taken until now for them to finally see some results from their minor league system?

 

Because you weren't paying attention?

Oh I paid attention. The only real prospects I saw come up where Mark Prior (no-brainer pick), Corey Patterson, and Felix Pie.

[Banedon]

Maybe he just really didn't want to bat.

[Guest]

 

- I'd strongly consider seeing what it would take to rent a guy like Grant Balfour. With no SPs added and the latest news on Vizcaino being less than inspiring, there aren't any big logjams created by adding him. In doing so you really have a very good pen locked down, and he can easily be flipped to essentially buy some assets at the deadline if you prefer. Or you can keep him as a measure of minimizing downside in total wins, especially if Strop and/or Parker regress.

 

You caught that too? Definite downer going from hearing he's flashing electric stuff at instructs to "He's still rehabbing and we're being cautious with him" or whatever the hell it exactly was that McLeod said.

 

Oh, what's this now?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Cubs have been awful for decades, why has it taken until now for them to finally see some results from their minor league system?

 

It hasn't. The late 1990s/early 2000s farm systems were quite productive.

[ConstableRabbit]

- Even without Tanaka, I think this team is better than the impression that most people have. It's not immune from negative variance and winning 90-95 games again, but I expect a larger jump in win count from '13 to '14 than '12 to '13.

If we don't win more than 5 games more than we did last year, this is going to go from depressing to disastrous.

[abuck1220]

I really, really wanted Tanaka, but we can get Scherzer, Masterson, or Bailey, trade for an OFer, while still trading Shark, and be a playoff possibility in 2015.

 

 

how many more seasons are we going to play the "if we just get free agents X, Y and Z" scenario? nobody good wants to play for the cubs right now. let alone MULTIPLE guys that are good.

[gscool89]

The Cubs have been awful for decades, why has it taken until now for them to finally see some results from their minor league system?

 

It hasn't. The late 1990s/early 2000s farm systems were quite productive.

But you had ownership that wasn't willing to spend to keep that talent. You're not going to see that with today's prospects.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Cubs have been awful for decades, why has it taken until now for them to finally see some results from their minor league system?

 

Because you weren't paying attention?

Oh I paid attention. The only real prospects I saw come up where Mark Prior (no-brainer pick), Corey Patterson, and Felix Pie.

 

Where is it you think Derrek Lee Carlos Zambrano Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto came from?