Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

[Tracer Bullet]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

[davell]

 

Even if you get one of the two, that's barely an above-average rotation. The team you are describing is a great bet for 84 wins, which I'd take at this point, but is still likely finishing 3rd and out of the wild card game.

 

I'd take a team that projects to win 85 games when those key players are that young, though.

 

Exactly. Thats my point. You can make midseason deals to put you up higher or whatever too. I just don't think we were going to be much better than that, with or without Tanaka, heading into 2015.

 

Yeah, he's younger than the FA of next year by 3 years or so, but he costs the same and likely not any better. Sucks we lost a couple of years and likely a 2nd round pick next year, but my main point is losing Tanaka isn't THAT big of a deal, in the total scheme.

 

We did if the plan was to sign Tanaka this year and Masterson next

Just keep Shark then and sign one of the 3. I don't think we planned on having Shark/Tanaka/Wood/Jackson AND one of Scherzer/Masterson/Bailey, although it would have been nice.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

 

Make up your mind. Either we have to account for all the unlikely but possible scenarios, in which case Tanaka very much might have made the 2014 Cubs a playoff game, or we talk about most likely projections, in which case writing off 2015 is quite reasonable.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just keep Shark then and sign one of the 3. I don't think we planned on having Shark/Tanaka/Wood/Jackson AND one of Scherzer/Masterson/Bailey, although it would have been nice.

 

If we were trying to win, that's exactly what we should have been planning on.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

 

But when you add those 2015 FA/trades/ETC to a team with Tanaka or without Tanaka it makes a large difference. It matters what point you are at when you start adding those things. We can't pretend like you can just add more stuff later on to make up for what you miss today. There is a scarcity of talent out there and a lot of other teams who are actually willing to pay for it.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say there will not be as attractive a starting pitcher available for nothing but money in the next 2 offseasons

[Guest]

can someone like TT, sneaky, or even Kyle (or anyone else) please take a look at my WAR projection post and give thoughts?

 

please? :)

[rocket]

is samardzija even that good? i'm perfectly happy with him going elsewhere

[Guest]

is samardzija even that good? i'm perfectly happy with him going elsewhere

 

yes he's pretty damn good

[Guest]

After listening to each team’s pitch and mulling over the offers, the two sides haggled a bit and Tanaka’s camp informed the Yankees they had to offer the seventh year to get a deal done, so they did. They did not make the high offer — Tanaka reportedly turned down a better deal to come to New York.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

is samardzija even that good? i'm perfectly happy with him going elsewhere

 

He's pretty good, and his absence just makes for one more hole to fill.

[Tracer Bullet]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

 

Make up your mind. Either we have to account for all the unlikely but possible scenarios, in which case Tanaka very much might have made the 2014 Cubs a playoff game, or we talk about most likely projections, in which case writing off 2015 is quite reasonable.

 

I don't know what I have to make up my mind about.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't know what I have to make up my mind about.

 

Your post was basically:

 

"Here's something that's probably true but not certain. Also, why are you speculating on something that's probably true when it's not certain?"

[sneakypower]

Just to spitball on davell's actual lineup, say this is the level of production you get in 2015...

 

C - Castillo - 3 wins

1B - Rizzo - 3 wins

2B - Baez - 2.5 wins (trying really hard to be conservative here)

3B - Bryant - 2 wins (I'm still pretty doubtful that he comes up as a 3B - but I'm going with davell's scenario)

SS - Castro - 3 wins (lets pretend 2013 never happend kthx)

OF - Sweeney - 2 wins

OF - Lake - -5 wins

OF - Ruggiano - 1 win

 

 

(but seriously, I can't see them trotting that out as the starting OF in 2015)

 

 

Where would that put them, just in terms of the everyday 8 guys, compared to the rest of the league?

more realistically, i'd put Castillo=2, Lake=1.5-2 but the rest is conceivable

 

assuming replacement-level bench performance, that's good for 17 WAR, which is right in line with where we were last year where we were 21st in the league on the positional side

[PrimeTime]

CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that Masahiro Tanaka received a full no-trade clause in his contract with the Yankees.

[jersey cubs fan]

Just to spitball on davell's actual lineup, say this is the level of production you get in 2015...

 

C - Castillo - 3 wins

1B - Rizzo - 3 wins

2B - Baez - 2.5 wins (trying really hard to be conservative here)

3B - Bryant - 2 wins (I'm still pretty doubtful that he comes up as a 3B - but I'm going with davell's scenario)

SS - Castro - 3 wins (lets pretend 2013 never happend kthx)

OF - Sweeney - 2 wins

OF - Lake - -5 wins

OF - Ruggiano - 1 win

 

 

(but seriously, I can't see them trotting that out as the starting OF in 2015)

 

 

Where would that put them, just in terms of the everyday 8 guys, compared to the rest of the league?

 

That's 16 WAR. Give them another 4 from the bench for an even 20 and that would be 21st on this list:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

[Tracer Bullet]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say there will not be as attractive a starting pitcher available for nothing but money in the next 2 offseasons

 

There's not a single name on this list that you'd like to sign as a FA that you think will actually make it to FA next year? And even if that's true, it's good that the Cubs are still allowed to trade.

 

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Homer Bailey (29)

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) - $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

J.A. Happ (32) - $6.7MM club option

Dan Haren (34) - $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Luke Hochevar (31)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31)

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jeff Niemann (32)

Ross Ohlendorf (32)

Felipe Paulino (31) - $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

[Guest]

Just to spitball on davell's actual lineup, say this is the level of production you get in 2015...

 

C - Castillo - 3 wins

1B - Rizzo - 3 wins

2B - Baez - 2.5 wins (trying really hard to be conservative here)

3B - Bryant - 2 wins (I'm still pretty doubtful that he comes up as a 3B - but I'm going with davell's scenario)

SS - Castro - 3 wins (lets pretend 2013 never happend kthx)

OF - Sweeney - 2 wins

OF - Lake - -5 wins

OF - Ruggiano - 1 win

 

 

(but seriously, I can't see them trotting that out as the starting OF in 2015)

 

Where would that put them, just in terms of the everyday 8 guys, compared to the rest of the league?

more realistically, i'd put Castillo=2, Lake=1.5-2 but the rest is conceivable

 

assuming replacement-level bench performance, that's good for 17 WAR, which is right in line with where we were last year where we were 21st in the league on the positional side

 

Given that it includes a bounceback from Castro and Rizzo somewhat improving, that makes me sad. It seemed like I was decently optimistic on everyone in the infield.

 

But maybe I'm overestimating the level of production it takes to get a couple wins at 3B and 2B.

[jersey cubs fan]

is samardzija even that good? i'm perfectly happy with him going elsewhere

 

yes he's pretty damn good

 

To what extent is the damn?

[rocket]

is samardzija even that good? i'm perfectly happy with him going elsewhere

 

He's pretty good, and his absence just makes for one more hole to fill.

 

yeah he looks better on fangraphs than he does on baseball-reference.

 

still, talking about $100 million for a pitcher nearing 30 with 1 good and 1 half decent season as a starter isn't something that excites me

Edited January 22, 2014 by rocket

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't know what I have to make up my mind about.

 

Your post was basically:

 

"Here's something that's probably true but not certain. Also, why are you speculating on something that's probably true when it's not certain?"

 

No, that's a ridiculous simplification and it doesn't take a great deal of critical thinking to read my post fairly. Nonetheless, I'll help spell it out. My post was, we're 2 months from the start of 2014 and we're not one SP away from making the playoffs. There isn't an indication that the team is making a number of others moves this offseason. But we're 14 months from the start of the 2015 season, so it's too far away to call that season a bust.

[sneakypower]

Just to spitball on davell's actual lineup, say this is the level of production you get in 2015...

 

C - Castillo - 3 wins

1B - Rizzo - 3 wins

2B - Baez - 2.5 wins (trying really hard to be conservative here)

3B - Bryant - 2 wins (I'm still pretty doubtful that he comes up as a 3B - but I'm going with davell's scenario)

SS - Castro - 3 wins (lets pretend 2013 never happend kthx)

OF - Sweeney - 2 wins

OF - Lake - -5 wins

OF - Ruggiano - 1 win

 

 

(but seriously, I can't see them trotting that out as the starting OF in 2015)

 

 

Where would that put them, just in terms of the everyday 8 guys, compared to the rest of the league?

more realistically, i'd put Castillo=2, Lake=1.5-2 but the rest is conceivable

 

assuming replacement-level bench performance, that's good for 17 WAR, which is right in line with where we were last year where we were 21st in the league on the positional side

-BUT- using platoons to their full benefit and getting an unforeseen monster breakout could get a lineup like shown above into the top-3 for positional team WAR, as the A's showed us last year; you really just don't know

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd "take it" too.

 

But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have.

 

With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.

 

Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say there will not be as attractive a starting pitcher available for nothing but money in the next 2 offseasons

 

There's not a single name on this list that you'd like to sign as a FA that you think will actually make it to FA next year? And even if that's true, it's good that the Cubs are still allowed to trade.

 

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Homer Bailey (29)

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) - $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

J.A. Happ (32) - $6.7MM club option

Dan Haren (34) - $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Luke Hochevar (31)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31)

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jeff Niemann (32)

Ross Ohlendorf (32)

Felipe Paulino (31) - $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

 

None of these guys are as attractive a target as Tanaka was. And there were several free agents I was interested in this offseason too. I also hear trades were allowed but I'll have to check to make sure

[Guest]

is samardzija even that good? i'm perfectly happy with him going elsewhere

 

yes he's pretty damn good

 

To what extent is the damn?

 

lol i hate you

 

 

Well his peripherals are very good and his results didn't match them last year, but given that these have been his first two full years as a starter, I think he's done well. 2012 he was really good outside of that one month where he seemed to come off the rails for 3-4 starts (June, I think)...last year he ramped up the innings and struggled a little mroe but xFIP-wise he was right in line with 2012.

 

I could see him improving next year as he gets more used to the workload. But even without it, he's still a well above average starting pitcher.

[sneakypower]

There's not a single name on this list that you'd like to sign as a FA that you think will actually make it to FA next year? And even if that's true, it's good that the Cubs are still allowed to trade.

 

 

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Homer Bailey (29)

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) - $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

J.A. Happ (32) - $6.7MM club option

Dan Haren (34) - $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Luke Hochevar (31)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31)

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jeff Niemann (32)

Ross Ohlendorf (32)

Felipe Paulino (31) - $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

sign all of Brett Anderson, Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson at reasonably reduced rates and you'll come upon a TOR arm (or two!) somehow or another